Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 28. maj 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste nøgletal er EU-Kommissionens økonomiske barometer for euroområdet (ESI), hvor der ventes et nyt marginalt fald til 103,5 i maj ned fra 103,7 i april. Det spejler nogenlunde udviklingen vi allerede har set i PMI, om end faldt i sidstnævnte har været lidt mere udpræget. Vi har modtaget nationale barometre fra Tyskland (IFO) og Frankrig (INSEE), som har foreslået en stort set flad udvikling, idet førstnævnte blot faldt marginalt mens det franske steg overraskende kraftigt til nyt højeste niveau siden midt Således peger dette barometer på, at vækstmomentum stort set er fastholdt ind i 2. kvartal. Fra USA kommer tal for igangværende bolighandler, hvor konsensus venter en lidt mindre stigning end i marts. Salget af eksisterende boliger faldt mere end ventet i april, mens salget af nye boliger steg mere end ventet. De danske konjunkturbarometre giver os et indtryk af, om virksomhederne er begyndt at købe historien om et økonomisk opsving, hvilket nok vil være afgørende for den fremadrettede udvikling i økonomien. Især skal vi meget gerne se, at pessimismen i industrisektoren begynder at blive reduceret. Det har da også været lidt svært at forene den meget negative stemning med den faktiske udvikling i industriproduktionen, og overordnet set er det indtrykket at de negative signaler fra konjunkturbarometret har været overgjorte. Der har dog været lidt svaghedstegn fra de ledende indikatorer blandt vores samhandelspartnere på det seneste, og det ser vi kan have begrænset stigningen i industriens konjunkturbarometer. Vi venter dog en stigning fra -11 til -9 i maj, men vi skal meget gerne snart tilbage i positivt territorium for at minimere risikoen for en negativ overraskelse fra sektoren i de kommende måneder. Vi vil især holde øje med om de meget positive forventninger til produktionen kan fastholdes, trods den negative vurdering af lagrenes størrelse og ordreindgangen. EMU: ESI støttes i stigende grad af Frankrig Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der var pæne aktiekursstigninger på de europæiske markeder i går, drevet af (sandsynligvis ubegrundet) fornyet tro på en aftale om Grækenlands gældsproblemer. De amerikanske aktier fulgte med op, mens de kinesiske her til morgen ligger til markante fald pga. rygter om øget regulering og overvågning af aktiebrokere. Obligationsrenterne og EUR/USD stort set uændrede. Grækenland: Græske embedsmænd melder om, at en forhandlingsløsning er nær, og at man snarligt vil udarbejde et udkast til aftale. De positive toner fra græsk side er dog ikke blevet fulgt op fra den anden lejr (EU; ECB og IMF). Snarere tværtimod, idet fx EU-Kommissionen har sagt, at en aftale ikke står for døren og at en masse arbejde udestår. Ifølge grækerne indeholder den kommende aftale bl.a. et lavere overskud på den primære offentlige saldo end i den nuværende låneaftale og ingen nedskæringer i løn og pension. Der er således intet nyt om, på hvilke punkter grækerne har bøjet sig. ECB valgte angiveligt i går på sit ugentlige telemøde om de græske bankers likviditetssituation ikke at hæve rammen for de græske bankers træk af ELA nødfinansieringslikviditet. Loftet er ellers blevet hævet ugentligt siden uroen blussede op for alvor i begyndelsen af året. Ifølge Bloombergs kilder blev loftet ikke hævet fordi der har været et meget begrænset udtræk af indskud i bankerne i den forgangne uge. Japan: Detailomsætning steg med 0.4% m/m i april, hvilket var mindre end ventet og ikke nok til at reversere det store fald i marts. Tyskland: Forbrugertilliden steg et nøk til 10,2 fra 10,1. Der var ventet et fald til 10,0. Dermed ser det ud til, at forbrugertilliden alligevel ikke er toppet endnu, hvilket står i kontrast til flere andre tyske tillidsindikatorer. Sverige: Konjunkturinstituttets erhvervstillidsindikator steg noget mere end ventet, og det trak også den overordnede Economic Tendency Indicator op. Danmark: Ikke overraskende var der ingen reaktion på de finansielle markeder på udskrivelsen af folketingsvalget i går. Tyskland: Forbrugertilliden fortsatte opad Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 28. maj 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,94% / indeks 1026,23) endte gårsdagens handel i moderat positivt territorium. Investorernes fokus var fortsat rettet mod Grækenland, eftersom landet skal betale næste afdrag på deres lån til IMF i starten af juni. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet Novozymes (+3,89% / kurs 325,50) der fik medvind fra den schweiziske storbank UBS, som hævede sit kursmål til 400 kr. fra 288 kr. og ligeledes hævede anbefalingen fra Hold til Køb. Vestas (+0,93% / kurs 348,40) fik også medvind fra, at et internationalt finanshus hævede sit kursmål og anbefaling på Vestas-aktien. Nordea (+0,78% / kurs 90,60) var også i fokus eftersom banken afholdt kapitalmarkedsdag i London. I den anledning offentliggjorde banken sine finansielle målsætninger for perioden Mest positivt i den sammenhæng var Nordeas målsætning om, at udbyttet til aktionærerne skal være på mindst 75% af overskuddet i perioden. Derimod var det lidt skuffende, at Nordea meldte ud, at de har en målsætning om, at omkostningerne maksimalt må stige med 1% om året i perioden, hvilket var lidt mindre ambitiøst end markedet havde håbet på. Renter Obligationsrenterne faldt over dagen i går i Tyskland og Danmark, men det vendte sidst på eftermiddagen, så fx den 10-årige tyske og danske statsrente endte nogenlunde hvor de startede. Det var udmeldinger fra græske embedsmænd, som vendte renteudviklingen, så den tyske rente steg og de sydeuropæiske eurolande og især den græske faldt. Udmeldingerne lød på, at en forhandlingsløsning er nær, og at man snarligt vil udarbejde et udkast til aftale. De positive toner fra græsk side er dog ikke blevet fulgt op fra den anden lejr (EU; ECB og IMF). Snarere tværtimod, idet fx EU-Kommissionen har sagt, at en aftale ikke er lige oppe over og at en masse arbejde udestår. Ifølge grækerne indeholder den kommende aftale bl.a. et lavere overskud på den primære offentlige saldo end i den nuværende låneaftale og ingen nedskæringer i løn og pension. Der er således intet nyt om, på hvilke punkter grækerne har bøjet sig. De amerikanske statsrenter fulgte med ned, og da de ikke var steget så meget tidligere på dagen, endte de lidt lavere. Valuta EUR ligger her til morgen lidt stærkere over for USD end i går morges, I går svækkedes EUR først, men det blev reverseret efter udmeldinger fra græske embedsmænd om at en aftale er tæt på at blive indgået. Modparterne (EU, ECB og IMF) ser dog ikke ud til at kunne genkende billedet af at man er kommet tættere på hinanden. JPY er svækket endnu en dag, og USD/JPY er nu på det højeste niveau i 12 år. Over for EUR og DKK er JPY pga. den generelle USDstyrkelse dog ikke på rekordsvage niveauer. SEK svækkedes over for EUR i går på trods af en flot stigning i erhvervstillidsindikatoren fra Konjunkturinstituttet. BRL styrkedes over for USD i går for første gang i fem dage efter det alligevel lykkedes regeringen at gennemføre nogle af de stærkt påkrævede finanspolitiske opstramninger Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 28. maj 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 28/05/15 Matas Årsregnskab 28/05/15 United International Enterprises 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 25/05/15 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Apr B B B 25/05/15 17:30 USA Fed's Fischer Speaks on Global Economy 26/05/15 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales May /05/15 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Apr -0.5% % -0.5% 26/05/15 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Apr 0.4% % 1.0% 26/05/15 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Mar 0.7% % 0.3% 26/05/15 15:00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.9%/4.9% %/5.03% 0.95%/5.04% 26/05/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI May P ,4 26/05/15 16:00 USA New Home Sales Apr 500K K 517K 26/05/15 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index May /05/15 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index May /05/15 16:30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity May /05/15 02:10 USA Fed's Lacker Discusses Financial Stability 27/05/15 03:30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Apr % 2.6% 27/05/15 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Jun /05/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence May /05/15 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey May /05/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May % -1.5% 27/05/15 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence May /05/15 01:50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr 1%/5.5% %/-9.7% 0.4%/5.0% 28/05/15 08:00 Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Apr %/1.4% 28/05/15 09:00 Danmark Manufacturing Confidence Maj /05/15 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Mar 4.1% % 28/05/15 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence May /05/15 11:00 EMU Consumer Confidence May F /05/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May K 28/05/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May /05/15 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.7%/ %/13.4% 28/05/15 20:45 USA Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks on Monetary Policy 28/05/15 EMU Tsipras, Dijsselbloem Invited to EP meeting 28/05/15 06/02 UK Nationwide House PX (MoM/YoY) May 0.3%/4.8% -- 1%/5.2% 29/05/15 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence May /05/15 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate Apr 3.4% % 29/05/15 01:30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Apr 3.0% % 29/05/15 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Apr 0.2% % 29/05/15 01:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr P 0.8%/-0.1% %/-1.7% 29/05/15 07:45 Schweiz GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q 0.1%/1.7% -0.1%/1.6% 0.6%/1.9% 29/05/15 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr 1%/2.5% %/3.5% 29/05/15 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/2.5% %/2.1% 29/05/15 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate SA Apr % -- 29/05/15 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Apr % 4.8% 29/05/15 09:00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P %/ 0.5%/1.5% 29/05/15 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator May /05/15 09:30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q 0.6%/2.9% 0.6%/2.9% 1.1%/2.7% 29/05/15 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Apr 4.9% % 29/05/15 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P 0.4%/2.5% %/2.4% 29/05/15 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q S -0.9% % 29/05/15 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager May /05/15 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment May F Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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