Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

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1 >mmission of the European Communities ommissionen for De eu ropceiske Fcellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske situation i Fcellesskabet Publication mensuelle

2 This publication appears monthly (except August and September, which are combined in a double number). Denne publikation udkommer manedligt (bortset fra et dobbeltnummer i perioden augustseptember) The Graphs and Notes of Group A appear in eery issue and deal with: A1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The others (Groups B, C and D) appear quarterly as follows: Diagrammer og bemcerkninger til gruppe A: A1 A2 A3 A4 nd ustri prod u ktion Antal arbejdsl0se Forbrugerpriser Handelsbalance offentligg0res i hert nummer, medens grupperne B, C og D flndes i f0lgende udgaer: January, April, July, October januar, april, juli, oktober B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 Exports Trade between member countries Discount rate and callmoney rates Shortterm lending to business and priate customers Gold and foreign exchange reseres B1 B2 B3 Eksport Handel mellem medlemslandene Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente B4 Kortfristede kreditter til irksomheder og priatpersoner 135 Guld og alutareserer February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 mports Terms of trade Wholesale prices Retail sales Wages C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 mport Bytteforhold Engrospriser Detailomscetning L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries 02 Dwellings authorized D3 Tax reenue 04 Share prices 05 Longterm interest rates 01 Produktion i metalindustri D2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Skatteindtcegter D4 Aktiekurser 05 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Fcellesskabet flndes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemcerkninger til diagrammerne flndes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends 200, rue de la Loi, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N rhe COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F lellesskabet Kommissionen (or De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0 konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling 200, rue de la Loi 1049 Bruxelles

4 THE ECONOMC STUATON AS SEEN BY CONSUMERS The ninth EEC consumer surey was carried out in the second half of January On behalf of the Commission, questions were put to 40,000 households, constituting a representatie sample of the oerall population of the member countries. Preliminary results of the surey show that since the autumn of 1974 the economic situation has further deteriorated. Howeer, most of the households particularly in Germany, France and Denmarkmake a less pessimistic assessment of the economic trend for the coming twele months than preiously. This is probably due to the expectation of a more faourable trend on the labour market. The upward price moement is still regarded as too steep; howeer, the respondents are apparently becoming aware of the initial effects of antiinflation measures. Only in the United Kingdom and in reland do consumers expect a further price upsurge. Most of the consumers regard their personal financial situations as better than in the autumn of 1974; howeer, about a quarter of those questioned consider that their current situations are less faourable than a year preiously. The propensity to sae is probably higher than in preious years. None the less, purchasing intentions in respect of motor ehicles and other consumer durables hae grown stronger, in comparison with January 1974, particularly in France and the Netherlands. Planned expenditure on holidays also seems to hae increased compared with last year. Brussels, 31 march KONJUNKTURERNE SET UD FRA FORBRUGERNES SYNSPUNKT anden haldel af januar 1975 ble der for niende gang foretaget en forbrugerunders0gelse af konjunkturerne. Pa Kommissionens foranledning udspurgtes udalgte husstande, som er reprresentatie for den samlede befolkning i medlemsstaterne. De f0rste resultater af denne konjunkturunders0gelse iser, at den 0konomiske situation er bleet yderligere forrerret siden efteraret Dog urderer flertallet af husstandene isrer Forb.undsrepublikken Tyskland, Frankrig og Danmark den 0konomiske udikling ide kommende 12 maneder mindre pessimistisk end hidtil. Denne urdering kan rere begrundet i, at forbrugerne forenter en gunstigere udikling pa arbejdsmarkedet. Forbrugerne finder stadig prisstigningerne for store; dog synes det, som om deer ed at blie opmrerksomme pa de f0rste irkninger af inflationsbekrempelsesforanstaltningerne. Kun i Det forenede Kongerige og rland frygter forbrugerne fortsatte prisstigninger. Flertallet af forbrugerne urderer deres egen 0konomiske situation noget gunstigere end i efteraret 1974; cirka en fjerdedel af de spurgte mener imidlertid stadig, at deres 0jeblikkelige situation er mindre god end for et a! siden. Sparelysten synes at rere st0rre end ide foregaende ar; dog kan der sammenlignet med janauar 1974 isrer i Frankrig og Nederlandene spores st0rre interesse for at k0be hiler og andre arige forbrugsgoder. Ogsa de til ferien planlagte udgifter synes at rere st0rre end sidste ar. Bruxelles, d. 31. marts 1975.

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON Unadjusted CE EG EC EF T lkke scesonkorrigerede tal 200 Adjusted indices Seesonkorrigerede tal. CE EG EC EF " "' ,..:JP..,.... fp aa " 1" 120 F M A M A 0 H D F M A M A 0 H D The shortterm production outlook is once again assessed more faourably in the latest EEC business surey, although industrial production has declined further in seeral member countries. The industries hardest hit by the fall in economic actiity are iron and steel, motor ehicles, textiles, building and construction, and capital goods. The contraction of output has been due essentially to the slowdown in export demand, the weak propensity to inest and firms' reluctance to build up stocks of semifinished goods. The slower upward trend of prices, the improement in external disequilibria, the falling trend in interest rates and the greater aailability of funds hae, it seems, not yet had any impact on the trend of economic actiity. Orders on hand are sufficient for only a relatiely short period of production, and manufacturing industry is still carrying unduly heay stocks of finished goods. Produktionsudsigterne pa kort sigt urderes i EFkonjunkturunders0gelsen pa ny mere positit, sk0nt industriproduktionen endnu er gaet tilbage i flere medlemsstater. Tilbagegangen i den 0konomiske aktiitet har isrer ramt jern og stalindustrien, automobilindustrien, tekstilindustrien, byggesektoren samt den del af industrien. der fremstiller produktionsmidler. Tre eftersp0rgselskomponenter har haft resentlig indflydelse pa tilbagegangen i produktionen: mindre eftersp0rgsel fra udlandet, igende inesteringslyst og tilbageholdenhed med oplagring af halfabrikata. Det langsommere tempo i prisstigningerne, reduktionen af uligeregten pa betalingsbalancerne, de faldende rentesatser samt den omstrendighed, at der er flere midler til radighed til finansiering, har tilsyneladende ikke hidtil haft nogen indflydelse pa tendensen i den 0konomiske aktiitet. Ordrebeholdningerne sikrer kun produktionen i forholdsmressig kort tid. Frerdigarelagrene i den forarbejdende industri er fortsat st0rre end normalt.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjusted indices Sresonkorrigerede tal l1912 l ltolio f BolgiqueBolgiii Luxembourg Umted Kingdom 200 t , _ '...:>= [Z _...,... """ ,..,.,.,...,.., V' "" _,., '... " '... ' lr ".., ""'' f K >., r :.1 j l J F M AM J J A s o N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N D "' 270 Adjusted indices Sresonkorrigerede tal l 1912 l l 1973l l 1974l R Doutochlond 250 t Franco Nederland lrlondo... r O.ncnorl< r,., i,..., "'..,......,._, "" "' 1'o... ""'. ""..._ "' ""...1 _., r :"" ,.,_ ly _;,... 1' J 11" ' 1 ' l l J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JASONOJ FMAMJ J ASOND

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (thousands) (i tusinde) j """"" = :,.,.,.,., :=="= "'..,.,...,..... """""'" :r.., 1=,_ " ; _, _ r... i" ,. ' ' Oanmark B R Deutschland reland Nederland BelgiqueBelgie r c e..., '', ni7 Kigdm L '... '.,...,,., i V t', [,.,., l l l l 1 1 J 1 l J FM AM J J AS 0 H D J FM AM J J AS 0 H D J FM AM J J AS 0 H DJ FM AM J J AS 0 H D The labour market situation in the Community has continued to gie cause for concern in recent weeks despite the mild weather. The seasonally adjusted number of unemployed in general climbed further with marked differences remaining in the situations in indiidual industries and occupations. A general feature, howeer, is that in most countries a disturbingly large proportion of total unemployment is accounted for by schoolleaers. The data at present aailable show that shorttime working also become steadily more widespread in most of the member countries. The seasonally adjusted number of acancies appears to hae leelled out a little since the beginning of the year in certain countries, in particular Germany and the Netherlands; by contrast, the demand for labour from firms in France and Belgium contracted further in March. The results of the first Community business surey carried out this year suggest that most firms are expecting a leellingoff in the number of their employees in the next three months rather than a significant decline. Situationen pa arbejdsmarkedet i Frellesskabet har i de sidste uger fortsat giet anledning til bekymring trods det milde ejr. Antallet af arbejdsl0se (sresonkorrigeret) udiste i almindelighed stadig en opadgaende tendens. denne forbindelse er situationen stadig meget forskellig i de enkelte brancher og erher. Den andel, som de unge, der for f0rste gc;1ng s0ger arbejde, udg0r af det samlede antal arbejdsl0se, er i de Oeste ande foruroligende. De foreliggende oplysninger iser, at f1ere og f1ere kommer pa nedsat arbejdstid i den oerejende del af Frellesskabet. Det sresonkorrigerede tal for de ledige Stillinger har i isse ande, isrer i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og Nederlandene, ist en snarere stabiliserende tendens siden arets begyndelse; derimod er de franske og belgiske irksomheders beho for arbejdskraft gaet yderligere tilbage i marts. henhold til resultaterne af den f0rste konjunkturunders0gelse i ar hos irksomhederne i Frellesskabet synes f1ertallet af disse at gaud fra, at antallet af deres beskreftigede ikke il blie forringet i nrenererdig grad i l0bet af de kommende tre maneder, men derimod snarere ii stabiliseres.

8 CONSUMER PRCES FORBRUGERPRSER A = L [1973T T T T T T 1974T B R Deutschland France ltalia Belg1que Belgie Luxembourg Danmark reland Nederland United Kingdom,. _,., "" 1'" _,....: P:. 1" !',... _ ' """",., :::;: ',,. _J.J' """' ' """' j l l l J 1 l L J FMAMJ JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAM J JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND Slacker demand and declining import prices for raw materials continued to curb appreciably the trend of producer and wholesale prices in the Community taken as a whole. Consumer prices, on the other hand, again rose in February at rates arying widely from country to country. ndeed, in Luxembourg, and een more so in reland, the moement gathered momentum, though in reland this was largely accounted for by higher indirect taxes on a number of basic household items. n France and in Belgium, prices rose at much the same pace as in the autumn, but not as sharply as in the seer.est phase of inflation. n the United Kingdom, February saw a distinct slowdown in the upward moement, but the improement as compared with the autumn trend was negligible. n taly, the increase in consumer prices has slackened appreciably since December. Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark were the Community countries in which consumer prices rose least in February. Mindre efterspmgselspres og faldende importpriser pa rastoffer har fortsat i mrerkbar grad lagt en dremper pa prisudiklingen i produktions og engrosleddet i Frellesskabet. Med hensyn til forbrugerpriserne fortsatte de fra land til land strerkt diergerende kraftige stigninger i februar maned. Luxembourg og isrer i rland konstateredes endog en strerkere stigning. Dette skyldes ganske ist i rland for en stor del forh0jelsen af de indirekte afgifter pa et antal almindelige forbrugsarer. Frankrig og Belgien er priserne steget nogenlunde med samme tempo som i efterarsmanederne, dog mindre strerkt end i den rerste inflationsfase. Det forenede Kongerige er prisstigningen forbleet strerk pa trods af en afsrekkelse i februar. ltalien derimod har prisstigningerne siden december i mrerkbar grad reret igende. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Nederlandene og Danmark ar de frellesskabslande, der i februar hade den mindste forbrugerprisstigning.

9 A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur Danmark t BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL t o ,..._... r _.._,_ ""',., ,_... tc :::::::' V "" ', ( =".. ' A i " f.... j 'V V r' V J """" 0 CE EG EC France reland ltalia United Kingdom f'7' ' t. 1"'" "" J ' t ' r V " "' 2000 J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J A SO NO J FMAMJ J ASOND The Community's trade balance continued to improe in the last two months. n most member countries the alue of exports to nonmember countriesother than to the United Statesshowed some increase, while, with domestic demand remaining weak, imports fell by a considerable margin. n particular, import demand for oil remained slack as a result of the mild winter in Europe. The fall in orders receied from abroad in Germany Jed to a drop in exports, such that the trade surplus declined slightly in February. n France the trade deficit narrowed further in February. n the United Kingdom, the improement in the trade balance which occurred in January was sustained in the following month. The third 20 % cut in the basic customs duties between the original Community countries and the three new members came into force on 1 January 1975 and may hae had some effect on intracommunity trade flows at the tum of the year. l0bet af de to sidste maneder er der indtradt en yderligere forbedring af Frellesskabets handelsbalance. de fleste Jande steg rerdien af eksporten til tredjelande med undtagelse af De forenede Stater. Pa grund af den fortsat ringe indenlandske eftersp0rgsel gik importen betydeligt tilbage. srer ar der tale om ringe eftersp0rgsel efter raolie pa grund af den milde inter i Europa. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland har den mindre tilgang af ordrer fra udlandet f0rt til en forrnindsket eksport, saledes at oerskuddet pa handelsbalancen er bleet lidt mindre. februar ble Frankrigs underskud pa handelsbalancen fortsat mindre. Det forenede Kongerige kunne der ogsa i februar konstateres en forbedring af handelsbalancen, saledes som det ar tilfreldet i januar. Den tredje nedsrettelse af basisto1den pa 20 % mellem de oprindelige medlemsstater og de tre nye medlemsstater tradte i kraft den 1. januar 1975 og kan hae haft nogen indtlydelse pa den interne handel ed arsskiftet.

10 )1 OUTPUT N THE METAL PRODUCTS NDUSTRES PRODUKTON METALNDUSTR Dl 1963 = CE EG EC B.R. Deutschland 220 ffrance t alia Nederland Belgique Belgie United Kingdom ,.1 _,....t.j = A,...,... J " J '. " rj..r ' _., X "...,.. )': T."... "'" ' '.., """', '... F r """ 110 J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F M. A M J J A S 0 N 0 The decline in output in the metal products industries in the Community which has been eident since the middle of last year has now spread to all member countries and almost all sectors of the industry. Although in some countries such as Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, motor ehicle output has staged a modest recoery, in France, taly and the United Kingdom on the other hand production in the motor industry is still declining. But the slackening of actiity in other sectors of the metal products industries has also contributed to the general falloff in production. Output made actual gains in only a few sectorsmainly shipbuilding, the aircraft industry and specialized areas of mechanical engineering. Despite the measures introduced in many Community countries to stimulate inestment, as yet there has been no note worthy improement in the trend of this demand component, which is the key to any increase in production in these industries. Den siden mid ten af sidste ar fortsatte tilbagegang i metalindustrien i Frellesskabet har nu ramt aile medlemsstater og nresten aile brancher inden for denne industrigren. Den efterhanden meget lae produktionsaktiitet i automobilindustrien er ganske ist bleet let forbedret i enkelte ande sasom Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Belgien og Nederlandene; derimod. fortsretter produktionsnedgangen i automobilindustrien i Frankrig, talien og Det forenede Kongerige. Den samlede nedgang i produktionsaktiiteten pairkes i srerlig grad ogsa af den mindre aktiitet i andre brancher i metalindustrien. Pa trods af de st0tteforanstaltninger til fremme af inesteringsaktiiteten, som er indledt i mange af Frellesskabernes medlemsstater, er der endnu ikke indtradt nogen tydelig forbedring i inesteringernes udikling, som en stigning i produktionsaktiiteten i metalindustrien hoedsagelig er afhrengig af. Kun pa fa omrader som skibsbygningsindustrien, flyindustrien og specielle grene af maskinbygningsindustrien kan der konstateres en udidelse af produktionsaktiiteten.

11 02 DWELLNGS AUTHORZED (thousands) BOLGER HVORTL DER ER GVET BYGGETLLADELSER (i tusind) D B.R. Deutschland France 120 ltalia Nederland BelgiqueBelgie 100 f reland "' 1... A. "" ' J.. j r )' t p 7 7 ':;lo' 1 " J 11 ( 0.,} V' 1 1..J ( l " 1 ' '"' ,. ( fn t r.!u, u 1. " y f1rs:. r ""... r ] ;' J ' " 3 2 J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND n recent months, building and construction activty has tended to hold steady, though at a low leel, in the Community taken as a whole, largely as a result of goernment support measures, which hae had a perceptible impact on public works. The persistent sluggish trend in residential construction contrasts with this renewed actiity in public works. n Belgium, in particular, where cuts hae now spread from subsidized " council" housing to the other residential building sectors, the number of residential building permits issued has dropped sharply. n Germany and taly the seasonally adjusted number of residential building permits issued remained low. n the Netherlands, by contrast, the trend in the number of residential building permits issued is upwards as the goernment support measures are beginning to take effect. The upturn in construction actiity in the Netherlands is also clearly reflected in the replies to business sureys. n Germany, too, building and ciil engineering contractors are unmistakeably more optimistic than at the end of last year. Fcellesskabets byggesektor under et har der i de sidste maneder ist sig ep tendens til stabilisering pa et lat nieau. Dette skyldes iscer de statslige st0tteforanstaltninger, der er slaet igennem i det offentlige byggeri. Den fortsatte afmatning i boligbyggeriet star oer for en 0get aktiitet i det offentlige byggeri. scer i Belgien, hor ikke alene det almennyttige boligbyggeri men nu ogsa det 0rige boligbyggeri er ramt, er antallet af byggetilladelser til boliger gaet klart tilbage. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og talien forble de scesonkorrigerede tal for byggetilladelser til boligbyggeri pa et lat nieau. Derimod aftegner der sig i Nederlandene en opadgaende udikling i antallet af byggetilladelser til boliger, idet e statslige st0tteforanstaltninger nu slar igennem; den tiltagende aktiitet afspe.fler sig tydeligt i irksomhedernes sar i konjunkturunders0gelsen. For Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland iser sarene fra de adspurgte inden for bygge ektoren ligeledes en betydelig mere optimistisk stemning end ed udgangen af sidste ar.

12 )3 TAX REVENUE SKATTENDT JEGTER 03 B.R. Deutschland France reland ltal ia Nederland BelgiqueBelgie Luxembourg United Kingdom ' ""'= 1973 ll Mrd DM A V , "" " _,... "' ll Mrd FF V 110 Mio 2400 Mrd Lit 800Qr.r., Mio Fl '80,,. ' ',.,., ', 1800 f 70 ' 0 'e l "'" 1! " ll V ll V _. 8Qrr... Mio FB 3500 Mio Flbg 3500.r.Mio 70r_, b+b_, _ ll V., _...,. '",:,;;4' b+b ll V ll V n recent months the trend of tax reenue has aried considerably from country to country in the Community, one of the principal reasons for this probably being the differences in the time at which the economic downswing got under way and in its intensity. n Germany and Denmark, in particular, tax reenue has been affected by the slackening in economic actiity. By contrast, tax reenue in other countries continued to climb sharply. This W!S especially so in taly, where tax reenue.for 1974 was well aboe the original estimate, following an increase in tax rates at the middle of last year. n the early months of 1975 seeral member countries adopted additional budgetary measures in electie programmes to combat unemployment. These include interest rate subsidies for priate firms in taly, proision of financial aid for firms in difficulties in the Netherlands, special depreciation allowances in France and special measures to support the building and construction industries m the Netherlands, taly and France. n reland, a wealth tax was introduced in April de seneste m{meder er udiklingen i skatteproenuerne i Frellesskabets medlemsstater forl0bet ret uen artet. Den tids og styrkemressigt differentierede konjunkturafmatning kan hae ydet et resentligt bidrag hertil. srer i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og Danmark er skatteproenuet gaet ned som f0lge af konjunkturafmatningen. Derimod er proenuet steget kraftigt i andre ande. Dette grelder isrer talien, hor det for 1974 anslaede skatteproenu er oerskredet betydeligt som f0lge af den i midten af sidste ar besluttede skrerpelse af beskatningen. En rrekke medlemsstater har i de f0rste maneder af 1975 edtaget supplerende budgetpolitiske foranstaltninger med henblik pa en malbeidst bekrempelse af arbejdsl0sheden. Disse omfatter blandt andet rentetilskud til priate irksomheder i talien, tilbud om 0konomisk st0tte til irksomheder i anskeligheder i Nederlandene, gunstigere afskriningsordninger i Frankrig samt srerforanstaltninger til fordel for byggesektoren i Nederlandene, talien og Frankrig. lrland ble der i april 1975 indf0rt formueskat.

13 D4 SHARE PRCES AKTEKURSER D = r CE EG EC " ltalia """ Nederland United Kingdom....;,_ BR Deutschland , '. i. 1 1 r 7 1" j... ;i' ""y '.t C ' Danmark France _,,... reland '" r Luxembourg _, ; _! _ Belgique Belgie r..., '.r... t "" ' '" ;rv. 1' 1.!::_ ' ' r, ' ' :6 ' l. " r ) L ' A, V j r 'J 60 J J FM AM J J A 50 N OJ FM AM J J A 50 N D J FM AM J J A 50 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D The trend on share markets in all the Community countries and in major nonmember countries has staged a recoery after a long period of declining prices. The main factors behind the upswing which got under way in all member countries between the end of December and the end of January were probably the decline in interest rates throughout the world, budgetary and special inestment incenties introduced in seeral member countries, an improed economic outlook, especially in Germany, and better balance of payment figures in some deficit countries. The most spectacular gains occurred in the United Kingdom in January and February, where in earlier months the heaiest losses had also been recorded. n March, howeer, the upward moement slackened in London and on other stock exchanges in the Community. By the end of March, the aerage gains since the beginning of the year were about 89 % in the United Kingdom, 27 % in France, 20 % in the Netherlands and 15 % in Germany, taly and Belgium. There was also a sharp increase in the olume of trading as priate saers moed back into the markets on the rising trend. n seeral member countries, in particular the United Kingdom and Germany, companies were again able after a long break to raise new capital by issuing shares. Tendensen pa aktiemarkederne har sae! i aile Frellesskabets medlemsstater som i igtige tredjelande efter en langarig baisse rendret sig fundamentalt. Den hausse, som indtradte i aile medlemsstater mel! em udgangen af december og udgangen af januar, sky des sandsynligis isrer f0lgende: erdensomsprendende rentenedsrettelser, budgetpolitiske og srerlige inesteringsfremmende foranstaltninger i flere medlemsstater, gunstigere konjunkturudsigter isrer i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og forbedrede betalingsbalancer i enkelte medlemsstater med underskud. Den mest i0jnefaldende kursstigning indtradte i januar og februar i Det forenede Kongerige, hor ogsa de st0rste tab ar opstaet ide foregaende maneder. l0bet af marts er den opadgaende tend ens her som pa andre b0rser i Frellesskabet dog bleet afsrekket. Ved udgangen af marts androg de gennemsnitlige kursstigninger siden arets begyndelse ca. 89 % i Det forenede Kongerige, ca. 27% i Frankrig, ca. 20 % i Nederlandene og ca. 15 % i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, ltalien og Belgien. B0rsomsretningerne er steget kraftigt, efter at priate sparere igen begyndte at k0be aktier under haussen. flere medlemsstater, srerligt Det forenede Kongerige og Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, har irksomhederne efter en lang pause igen kunnet udide deres egenkapital gennem udstedelse af aktier.

14 [)5 LONGTERM NTEREST RATES LANGFRSTEDE RENTESATSER 05 % ! B.R. Deutschland... Danmark lrlande United Kingdom,_.. r... r... 8 '...,,.,...,,,,), r1 '... r,j 1 France ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie 1 (), V 'Y j lf ""' i',.. A 1,... ""' r r,.. u K YL '7...,... <...""'ii: r r" 1 J F M AM J J AS 0 N OJ F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 During the first few months of 1975, the fall in longterm interest rates spread to all the Community countries, and in some of them the moement gathered further momentum. The decline was most marked in Germany, Denmark, reland and in particular the United Kingdom, although United Kingdom rates are still the highest in the Community. n France and Belgium, by contrast, the trend down from last year's peaks.has so far been slow and uncertain. The downward moement in longterm interest rates was made possible by the generally sharp decline in shortterm interest rates. Howeer, in Germany in particular, yields hae recently appeared to be leelling off, one cause being the public authority's large borrowing requirement. New issue actiity has been brisk and new loans hae generally been floated for longer periods. n taly, demand for fixedinterest securities has also been boosted by the extension of the rule requiring banks to inest 40 % of the increase in their deposits in fixedinterest securities. de f0rste m{meder af 1975 har nedsrettelsen af de langfristede rentesatser bredt sig til aile medlemsstater og i nogle ande taget til. Tydeligst ar nedgangen i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Danmark, rland og isrer Det forenede Kongerige, som dog stadig har den h0jeste rente af aile medlemsstater. Derimod er udiklingen bort fra de sidste ars noterede h0je rentesatser kun sket t0ende og med afbrydelser i Frankrig og Belgien. Nedsrettelsen muliggjordes af den generelt betydelige srenkning af de kortfristede rentesatser. srer i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland synes renten dog at hae stabiliseret sig i den seneste tid blandt andet under pairkning af det offentliges store kreditbeho. Emissionsaktiiteten har reret betydelig, og de nye lans l0betid er generelt bleet lrengere. talien stimuleredes eftersp0rgslen efter fast forrentede rerdipapirer ligeledes gennem forlrengelsen af den bestemmelse, horefter bankerne i f0rste halar af 1975 skal inestere 40 % af deres indlansstigning i fast forrentede rerdipapirer (palydende rerdi).

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FA:LLESSKABET + 40 %of answers %at sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning ,.. _ """" 7' """""""' '_,.., L p r CE EG EC BR Deutschland France t ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie 1 JFMAMJJAS """ u f 0 N D k "' VL """ fj J l,.,j.l '.L_A,_ " k.,... ' " "7 r; "" ' ' '.,' J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0'. A M J J A S 0 N D Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af frerdigarelagre_ J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAM J J ASOND

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger + 40 %of answers %at sar CE EG EC B R Deutschland 30 France ltalia Nederland Graphs and ll show businessmen's iews of their total orderhooks and their stocks o(finished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages of the aif.(erence between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( +) and the percentage of those who find them "below normal" ( ). Graph m shows threemonth moing aerages ofthe difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( + ) and those who expected it to be down ( ). The table below shows businessmen 's assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( + ) being aboe normal, ( = ) being normal, ( ) being below normal. t also shows whether, they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( + ), no change ( = ) or decrease ( )in their production and in their selling prices. Detailed comments are gien in "Results of the business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community", published three times a year. Diagrammerne og ll gengier tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af forskelsardien melem irksomhedsledernes sar ))StfJrre«( +) og ))mindre«() edrfjrende ordrebestand og fardigarelagre. Diagram m iser ligeledes i form af tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit forskelsardien ( procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»forfjgelse«( +) eller en ))formindskelse«() af produktionen. Nedenstaende tabel gengier for de seneste tre maneder irksomhedsledernes bedfjmmelse aj, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og fardigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( = ) eller forholdsis sma ( ). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( +), nogenlunde uandrede ( =) eller aftagende ( ) produktion og salgsprisen i de ffjlgende tre eller fire mdneder anffjrt. UdffJrlige kommentarer findes i ))Resultaterne af konjunkturundersfjgelsen hos irksomhedsledere i Fallesskabet«der offentliggfjres tre gange om dret. BR France ltalia Nederland Belgique Lux em EEC Deutschland Belgie bourg E0F D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F.. Total orderbooks = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks = Den udenlandskeordrebeholdning Stocks of finished goods $ = Frerdigarelagre Expectations : production = Produktionsforentningerne Expectations: selling prices = Salgsprisforentninger ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. 1 ) Eksklusie bygge og anlagsirksomhed, narings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne A 1 ndustrial production: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities (excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco). reland and Denmark: quarterly index of OECD. Community: estimated index. Seasonally adjusted indices: threemonth moing aerage. A 1 ndustriproduktion: ndeks fra Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Falesskaber ( eksklusie bygge og anhegsirksomhed, narings og nydelsesmidler). rland og Danmark: kartalsindeks OECD. Fallesskabet: beregnet indeks. Sasonkorrigeret indeks: tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. A2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. France: number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A4 Balance of trade: ncluding intracommunity trade. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for. seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Denma.rk: Source: Danmarks Statistik. reland: Source: Central Statistics Office. Threemonth moing aerages. Exports fob, imports cif; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A2 Antal arbejdslese: Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit af sasonkorrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Frankrig: antal arbejdssogende. taien: kuren angier antal personer, registreret pd arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke tz1 antal arbejdslose. Luxembourg: ubetydelig arbejdsloshed. Belgien: fuldtid.s ledige personer, som modtager arbejdsloshedsunderstottelse. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. A4 Handelsbalance: lnklusie handel indenfor Fallesskabet. Beregnet pa grundlag af tal for import og eksport sasonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Falesskaber. Danmark: Kilde: Danmarks Statistik. rland: Kilde: Central Statistics Office. Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.if., eksklusie monetart guld. Kurer kan for de seneste maneder tere deis baseret pd skon. Begien og Luxembourg: falles kure. 0 1 Output in the metal products industries: Seasonally adjusted indices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities; Three month moing aerages. Comparable figures are not aailable for Denmark and reland. 0 2 Dwellings authorised: Number of dwellings for which permits hae been issued. Germany: from 1968 West Berlin excluded. Comparable jigures are not aailable for the United Kingdom. Source: SO EC. 0 1 Produktion i metalindustri: Sasonkorrigeret indeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber; tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. For rland og Danmark foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. 02 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelser: Antal udstedte byggetiladelser til boligbyggeri. T_yskand: eksklusie Vest Berlin. For Det forenede Kongerige foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. Kide: SKEF, rland: Department of Local Goernment. D 3 Tax reenue: Goernment tax reenue. Month( aerages. Germany: Federal and Lander taxes. Denmark: comparable figures are not aailable. Source: SOEC, reland: Central Statistics Office. 04 Share prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. D 3 Skatteindtzgter: Stat ens skatteindtagter mdnedsgennemsnit Tyskland: inklusie skatteindtagter i delstaterne. For Danmark foreigger endnu ikke sammenigneige tal. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Central Statics Office. D4 Aktiekurser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. 0 5 Longterm interest rates: Yield on fixedinterestbearing securities. Belgium: goernment securities maturing in oer 5 years issued after 1 December France: interest yield on securities in the priate sector; 2nd category loans. Netherlands: aerage yield of the three most recent goernment loans. Germany: all stock exchange securities quoted. taly: yield on bonds. United Kingdom, reland and Denmark: Goernment Bond Yield. Source: SOEC. D 5 Langfristede rentesatser: Ajkast af ardipapirer med fast nomine rente. Belgien: Statsardipapirer med mere end 5 drs lobetid udstedt efter 1. december Frankrig: renteajkast af ardipapirer i den priate sektor; 2. prioritets an. Nederlandene: gennemsnitsrente af de 3 seneste statsldn. Tyskland aile borsnoterede ardipapirer. talien: afkast af obligationer. Det forenede Kongerige, rland og Danmark: Ajkast af statsobligationer. Kilde: SKEF. 1 Eur = gm of fine gold ' g finguld

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