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1 8. april 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fredagen ser ud til at blive en lidt stille dag med hensyn til de økonomiske begivenheder, da dagen byder på en række af europæiske nøgletal af lidt sekundær karakter. Vi får således tysk eksport, fransk industriproduktion, britisk industriproduktion samt forbrugerprisinflation fra Schweiz. Herhjemme får vi handelstal for februar. Eksporten var en af de helt store skuffelser i dansk økonomi i Vareeksporten endte dog året i lidt bedre gænge, men faldt igen i januar - dog også trukket af de faldende oliepriser der sænker værdien af olieeksporten. Givet den svagere globale efterspørgsel, samt at den effektive kronekurs på det seneste er blevet styrket igen, er vi stadig ikke alt for optimistiske med hensyn til at vi står på tærsklen til et stærkere opsving i vareeksporten. Givet at oliepriserne har rettet sig venter vi dog, at værdien af vareeksporten har udviklet sig fladt i februar. Vi venter et lidt større rebound i importen, hvormed overskuddet på handelsbalancen ses reduceret en smule fra DKK 6,2 mia. kr. til DKK 5,7 mia.. Det skal imidlertid understreges, at gårsdagens stærke tal for eksportomsætningen indikerer, at der er mulighed for en positiv overraskelse (se figur). DK: Eksportomsætning peger på fremgang Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der rådede en gennemgående negativ stemning på aktiemarkederne torsdag, og i overensstemmelse med denne faldt statsrenterne tilbage. Den negative stemning spildte over på Asien-børserne til morgen, mens US-futures stiger en smule, samtidigt med at olieprisen stiger oven på gårsdagens fald. Tilsvarende svækkes JPY til morgen for første gang i seks handelsdage. USA: Antallet af nye ledige på overførselsindkomst faldt lidt mere end ventet i sidste uge til personer. Dermed blev der sat en stopper for stigningerne de forrige tre måneder. Fed-chef Yellen udtaler på panelmøde med de tre forrige centralbankchefer, at selvom økonomien gør enorme fremskridt, og vi nærmer os målet om fuld beskæftigelse, er der fortsat uudnyttede ressourcer på arbejdsmarkedet. Derudover fortalte hun, at de fleste FOMC-medlemmer venter at arbejdsløsheden vil skyde under den langsigtede ligevægt, men understregede at FOMC ikke sigter mod at drive inflationen over 2%, som er et mål, men ikke et loft. Til morgen underbyggede Fed s George sit kald på snarlig renteforhøjelse, idet en forsinkelse af opstramningen kan fremme overdreven risikotagning, og hurtige renteforhøjelse giver øget volatilitet. Kina: Valutareserven steg uventet for første gang i fem måneder i marts, hvilket sammen med det lille fald i februar antyder, at der er kommet mere ro om frygten for fortsat devaluering af CNY. Stigningen var dog lille på CNY 10 mia., og er nok blevet hjulpet på vej af den seneste mindre appreciering over for USD. Nogle ville måske have frygtet, at det kinesiske nytår var en del af forklaringen på opbremsningen i valutaudstrømingen i februar, men marts-tallet viser, at de grundlæggende bekymringer om CNY, ser ud til at have lagt sig. Euroområdet: ECB s referat af rentemødet i marts bragte ikke de store overraskelser, og fremstod overordnet neutralt i forhold til tidligere viden. Det hældte dog (ligesom Fed s) lidt til den bløde side, da en endnu større rentenedsættelse var blevet diskuteret, men dermed blev det vurderet at renten ville nå en nedre grænse. Således indikerede referatet også, at renten allerede på nuværende niveau får svært ved at komme meget længere ned, selvom der tilsyneladende er plads til det. Derudover blev et differentieret (tiered) system for den negative indlånsrente diskuteret, men blev funder for komplekst og ikke vurderet som ikke-ønskelig på nuværende tidspunkt. Ydermere blev det tydeligt, at ECB s Styrelsesråd især frygter andenrundeeffekter i forbindelse med den lavere inflation, og dermed risikoen for at lavinflation bliver indgroet i økonomien. Endelig afslørede referatet, at den nye stimulanspakke ikke havde fuld opbakning, idet nogle få medlemmer stillede spørgsmålstegn ved det. Der var bred enighed om behovet for yderligere stimulans, hvor de fleste bakkede op om rentenedsættelse, der var meget bred opbakning om tiltag for at bedre bankudlånet mens udvidelsen til opkøb af virksomheder kun modtog bred opbakning. Derudover fik vi to ECB-taler. ECB s Vicepræsident Constancio understregede i tale til EU-parlamentet, at ECB vil gøre hvad der skal til for at returnere inflationen til målet. Denne besked blev gentaget af ECB s cheføkonom Praet, som understregede, at hvis der kom nye adverse chok, så kan pengepolitikken blive rekalibreret endnu en gang. Han understregede dog samtidigt, at selv inden sidste runde stimulans havde ECB s lempelsesindsats indebåret signifikant støtte til output og inflation. Schweiz: Valutareserven steg til nyt rekordhøjt niveau på CHF 576 mia. Stigningen var dog kun på CHF 5 mia., hvilket ikke umiddelbart vidner om intensiveret pres på CHF i en ellers volatil periode på finansmarkederne og dermed heller ikke at CHF har genoptaget sin tidligere position som sikker havn. Danmark: Industriproduktionen viste blot et lille fald i februar på 0,1% m/m, hvilket var bedre end ventet, idet vi frygtede en tydeligere reversing i produktionen oven på stigningen i januar. Der var især en stærk fremgang indenfor maskinindustri. Derudover blev december og januar revideret op til robuste stigninger på 4% i gennemsnit. Kina: Reservefald bremser med stærkere CNY Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. april 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske indeks OMXC20 CAP (- 0,56% / indeks 987,16) sluttede gårsdagens handel i negativt terræn. Det var småt med offentliggørelser af interessante nøgletal på en dag hvor stemningen over hele det europæiske kontinent var nervøs. Især bankaktierne var under pres over hele Europa. Det skyldes formenligt at forventningerne til den kommende regnskabssæson er begyndt at få investorerne til, at fokusere på hvordan de enkelte aktier og sektorer har klaret sig i 1. kvartal. Her er der en forventning om at banksektoren formentligt har været presset af lav aktivitet i kvartalet og det fortsat meget lave renteniveau som tynger indtjeningen. Værst gik det udover Jyske Bank (-3,27% / kurs 278,50) og Danske Bank (-2,08% / kurs 174,30). Chr. Hansen (-1,42% / kurs 436,00) rapporterede et stærkt regnskab for selskabets 2. kvartal der overgik markedets forventninger på driften (EBIT) og desuden bød på en opjustering. Renter På en torsdag med få vigtige internationale nøgletal fulgte udviklingen i obligationsrenterne endnu en dag den generelle børsstemning. Denne viste sig fra den negative side og tyske (og danske) statsrenter satte sig i overensstemmelse hermed samt inspireret af fald i olieprisen. Vi fik godt nok ECB s referat af marts-rentemødet, og det var småt med overraskelser her, selvom det afslørede at en større rentenedsættelse samt et tiered system for indlånsrenten var blevet diskuteret. På den anden side indikerede referatet også at man er tæt på en nedre grænse for indlånsrenten. EUR-perfiferirenter fortsatte de forrige to dages stigninger, med Portugal i front. Den øgede risikoaversion fortsatte i USA, hvor statsrenterne viste lidt større fald, selvom det eneste interessante nøgletal i form at nytilmeldte ledige faldt lidt mere end ventet. Valuta EUR svingede over for USD i løbet af torsdagen, og offentliggørelsen af referatet af ECB s rentemøde havde da heller ikke den store indvirkning på EUR. Således viste referatet at en større rentenedsættelse var blevet diskuteret ligesom implementeringen af et tiered system for indlånsrenten. På den anden side indikerede referatet at renten er tæt på en nedre grænse samt at der ikke var fuld opbakning til alle elementerne i stimulanspakken. EUR blev svækket en anelse oven på referatet. USD modtog for sin del måske lidt støtte fra et fald i antallet af nytilmeldte ledige. EUR endte dog svækket mod USD endnu en dag. JPY fortsatte sin stærke styrkelsestendens fra de seneste dage, hjulpet på vej af en negativ stemning på børserne. Derudover synes JPY stadig fanget af opmærksomheden omkring de seneste mere bløde centralbanker, herunder især Fed og ECB. Markederne synes dermed i stigende grad at afkræve et snarligt modsvar fra BoJ. JPY nåede nyt stærkeste niveau mod USD i 1½ år. JPY rettede sig dog lidt til morgen. GBP blev svækket endnu en dag mod EUR, men styrkes lidt til morgen. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 8. april 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Bang & Olufsen 3. kvartal Chr. Hansen 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Feb % 4.4% 4.3% :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Mar % :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Apr :00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.6%/-4.0% -- -1%/-2.9% -0.7%/-4.2% :00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Mar :00 USA Factory Orders Feb -1.7% % -1.7% :00 USA Durable Goods Orders Feb F % -3.0% :00 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Feb F % -2.5% :00 Japan Labor Cash Earnings YoY Feb 0.2% % 0.9% :00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Services Mar :00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.3%/2.2% %/1.1% -1.2%/0.5% :30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Services Mar :30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.3%/4.0% %/4.6% 0.1%/3.8% :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F :30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Mar :00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.1%/1.9% 0.1%/ 0.3%/2.0% 0.2%/2.4% :30 USA Trade Balance Feb -$46.2b -- -$45.9b -$47.1b :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Mar F :00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar :00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Feb 5, (r) 5, :45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Mar :00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb -2.0%/0.4% %/1.8%(r) -0.5%/1.3% :30 Tyskland Markit Germany Construction PMI Mar :10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Mar :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 01. apr % 2.7% :20 USA Fed's Mester Speaks in Cleveland :00 USA U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from March FOMC Meeting :00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Feb % 3.7% (r) -0.1% :00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Mar b(r) 575.8b :00 EMU ECB's Constancio Speaks at EU Parliament Committee in Brussels :30 EMU ECB account of the monetary policy meeting :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 02. apr 270k k 267k :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 03. apr :30 USA Fed's Yellen in New York, with Greenspan, Bernanke and Volcker Kina Foreign Reserves Mar $3196.0b -- $3202.3b $3212.6b EMU ECB's Draghi Attends Meeting of Portuguese President's Council :15 USA Fed's George Speaks in York, Nebraska :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Mar 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% :00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Feb 0.5% % :30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Mar :45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.3% %/2.0% :00 Danmark Current Account Balance Feb b 9.8b :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Feb b 6.2b :15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.3%/-0.9% 0.3%/-0.9% 0.2%/-0.8% :30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.1%/0.0% %/0.2% :00 USA Wholesale Inventories MoM Feb -0.2% % Kina Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Mar 2.4% % Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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