Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

Transkript

1 >mmission of the European Communities ommissionen for De europceiske Fcellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske situation i Fcellesskabet Published monthly Manedlig publikation

2 This publication appears monthly. t is intended, by means of graphs and brief commentaries, to proide a continual analysis of the deelopment of the main economic indicators in the Community. Denne publikation udkommer manedligt. Den har til formal ed diagrammer og korte kommentarer at fremlcegge en fortl0bende analyse af de cesentligste konjunkturindikatorers forl0b i Fcellesskabet. n each issue an introductory commentary, deoted to a subject of current or special interest, is always accompanied by the following graphs and notes: A 1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The other graphs and notes appear periodically, alternating as follows: En kortfattet kommentar edmrende et emne af scerlig aktualitet eller interesse efterf0lges i hert nummer altid af nedenncente fire diagrammer og kommentarer: A 1 lndustriproduktion A2 Antal arbejdsl0se A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Handelsbalance De 0rige diagrammer og kommentarer forekommer kun periodisk som anf0rt: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober 81 Exports 82 Trade between member countries 83 Discount rate and callmoney rates 84 Money supply 85 Exchange rates 81 Eksport 82 Handel mellem medlemslandene 83 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente 84 Pengeforsyning 85 Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 mports C1 mport C2 Terms of trade C2 Bytteforhold C3 Wholesale prices C3 Engrospriser C4 Retail sales C4 Detai lomscetn i ng C5 Wages C5 L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D1 Produktion i metalindustri D2 Dwellings authorized D2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Tax reenue D3 Skatteindtcegter D4 Share prices D4 Aktiekurser D5 Longterm interest rates D5 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Fcellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. 8emcerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends Rue de a Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F.LELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling Rue de la Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles

4 TLTAGENDE OPTMSME BLANDT VRKSOMHEDSLEDERE Resultaterne fra den seneste konjunkturunders0gelse blandt irksomhedsledere i Fcellesskabet 1 ) iser at disse som helhed er bleet afgjort mere optimistiske med hensyn til produktionsudsigterne. Dette gcelder saledes iscer i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, hor erhersklimaet atter forbedredes fra februar til marts, i Belgien, Luxembourg, Det forenede Kongerige og sandsynligis i Frankrig 2 ). Nederlandene synes resultaterne at afspejle en beskeden forringelse af udsigterne, som dog snarere er statistisk begrundet end udtryk for en cendring i irksomhedsledernes opfattelse. Endelig ar irksomhedsledernes urdering i rland og ltalien som helhed ucendret i forhold til rundsp0rget i februar. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland forenter 26 afindustrilederne at ptoduktionen il stige i perioden frem til slutningen af juni, horimod kun 6 forenter, den il falde dette er det h0jeste an tal positie besarelser siden februar Frankrig har 33% afirksomhedslederne ed rundsp0rget i februar ligeledes forentet en stigning, hilket er den h0jeste andel siden september Der har endidere gennem de seneste maneder ceret tale om en cesentlig forbedring af produktionsudsigterne i Det forenede Kongerige og rland, horimod forbedringen har ceret mindre udprceget i Nederlandene, Belgien, Luxembourg og ltalien. disse lande (bortset fra Det forenede Kongerige, som kun omfattes afunders0gelsen fra begyndelsen af 1975) er den procentdel af irksomhedslederne, som enter en produktionsfremgang, den st0rste siden midten af Fcerdigareagrene formindskes fortsat i Fcellesskabet som helhed. de enkelte medlemsstater mindskedes lagrene i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og Belgien fra februar til marts lagernieauet synes at hae stabiliseret sig i ltalien, Nederlandene og Luxembourg, horimod sarene i rland afsl0rer en stigning. For sa idt angar ordreheholdningerne, er disse mcengdemcessigt steget cesentligt i de fleste af medlemsstaterne. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland stemmer ceksten i ordrebeholdningerne oerens med faldet i fcerdigarelagrene og med forbedringen i produktionsudsigterne. Pa samme made er den lille forringelse af ordrebeholdningerne i Nederlandene i oerensstemmelse med stabiliseringen af lagrene og usikkerheden erdr0rende produktionsudsigterne iscer for eksportordrene er en noget gunstigere udikling registreret i talien, og situationen er ligeledes forbedret i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Belgien og Luxembourg. rland faldt eksportordrene derimod en smule fra februar til marts. ndenfor forbrugsgodeindustrien betragtes ordresituationen som stabil i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Nederlandene og Luxembourg, horimod en cesentlig stigning i ordrebetraktningerne fremgar af de indkomne sar i talien og Belgien. sidstncente land skyldes forbedringen hoedsageligt eftersp0rgselen efter arige forbrugergoder. rland er stabiliseringen i begyndelsen af februar bleet afl0st af en forcerring som i alcesentlighed kan forklares ed en mindsket ordrebeholdning af arige forbrugsgoder. Ordrebeholdningerne af inesteringsgoder er fortsat tiltaget i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, talien og Luxembourg, medens der ikke i Belgien spores nogen forskel fra februar til marts. Nederlandene er det eneste land, hor man i begyndelsen af marts har kunnet se klare tegn pa en forringelse af ordresituationen i inesteringsgodeindustrien. Unders0gelsen iser ligeledes at der for byggematerialers edkommende har ceret tale om aftagende ordrebeholdninger i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og rland. Bruxelles, den 31. marts ) Samordnet unders0gelse gennemf0rt i begyndelsen af marts blandt irksomhedsledere. 2) Pa grund af strejke ar resultaterne af den franske unders0gelse endnu ikke tilgrengelige ed udarbejdelsen af nrerrerende redeg0relse.

5 GROWNG OPTMSM AMONG NDUSTRALSTS The results of the most recent EEC business surey indicate that industrialists in the Community 1 ) hae in total become much more optimistic about the outlook for production. This was especially so in the Federal Republic of Germany, where the industrial climate improed again between February and March, in Belgium, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom and, probably, in France 2 ). n the Netherlands, the results show a slight deterioration in the production outlook, but this may be due to statistical factors rather than to a real change in industrialists opinions. n reland and taly, chief executies opinions were, on balance, unchanged in early March, by comparison with the February surey. n the Federal Republic of Germany, 26% of industrialists now expect production to rise oer the period to the end of June, whereas only 6% expect output to fall; this is the highest percentage of positie responses since February n France, the 33% of chief executies expecting output to rise in the February surey was the highest recorded since September There has also been a striking improement in the last few months in the industrial production outlook in the United Kingdom and reland, but the improement has been less marked in the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and taly. n all of these countries (except the United Kingdom, to which the harmonized surey was extended only at the beginning of 1975), the percentage of heads of enterprises who now expect production to rise is the highest attained since mid1974. The surplus of stocks of finished products in the Comm.unitys industrial sector continues to diminish. At the leel of the indiidual Member States, finished stocks declined in the Federal Republic of Germany and Belgium between February and March. The leel of stocks appears to hae stabilized in taly, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, whereas an increase was indicated by the surey results for reland. Community industrial orderbooks hae increased substantially in most Member States. The growth in orders reported in the Federal Republic of Germany is consistent with the reduction of stocks and the impr.oed production outlook. By the same token, the slight deterioration in Dutch industrial orderbooks is in accordance with the stable stock situation and the uncertainties about the production outlook. The export order situation in particular is strikingly better in taly and has improed, also, in Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg. Orders for industrial exports in reland fell somewhat between February and March. A significant increase in orders for consumer goods has been reported by industrialists in taly and Belgium; demand for consumer durables is mainly responsible for the improement in the latter country. Consumergoods orders were reported stable, at the beginning of March, in the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. n reland, the improement reported early in February was followed by a rather marked deterioration last month, explained in substantial part by a decline in orders for consmrier durables. A steady improment in orders for inestment goods has continued in the Federal Republic of Germany, taly and Luxembourg, while inestment orders in Belgium were irtually unchanged between February and March. The Netherlands is the only country where there is eidence of a deterioration in the orderbooks of inestmentgoods industries. The surey also shows a fall in orders for building materials in the Federal Republic of Germany and reland. Brussels, 31 March ) Harmonized surey carried out at the beginning of March based on a sample of 22,000 chief executies. Denmark does not yet take part. 2 ) Owing to a strike the results of the French surey were not aailable at the time of writing.

6 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 1970 = 100 Unadjusted lkke scesonkorrigerede tal Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal J CE EG EC CE EG EC ;,,.1 :, "= 110, " \ \ : 1\!. \...., \ ,......, "" 70 F M A M A 0 N D 90 j_ F M A M A 0 N D The recoery in industrial production in the Community seen since last summer gathered further momentum at the beginning of Between December and January the seasonallyadjusted index rose by more than 2 Y2% to reach a leel already some 4 Y2% up ori the aerage for This acceleration is mainly due to renewed stockbuilding and the brisk reial in demand, principally on domestic markets, for durable and semidurable consumer goods. By contrast, the demand for plant and machinery seems to hae remained slack, in spite of a slightly more faourable trend eident in some member States in smalland mediumscale inestment particularly for rationalization and replacement purposes and also in foreign demand. n some industries, the degree of capacity utilization, which had fallen to between 60 and 65% at the bottom of the recession, climbed to 80% or een higher. The acceleration in industrial production was particularly marked in the Federal Republic of Germany, Fral}ce and Belgium. Det opsing som siden sidste sommer har karakteriseret industriproduktionen i Frellesskabet er bleet kraftigere i begyndelsen af Fra december til januar er det sresonkorrigerede indeks steget med mere end 2 Y:!%; det har saledes allerede oersteget gennemsnittet for 1975 med ca. 4 Y:!%.Stigningen skyldes hoedsagelig genopbygningen af lagrene og den kraftige stigning i eftersp0rgslen, isrer internt, efter arige forbrugsgoder. Til gengreld synes eftersp0rgslen efter faste inesteringsgoder fortsat at rere sag til trods for den lidt gunstigere udikling der, i nogle medlemslande,prreger de mindre og halstore inesteringer isrer rationaliserings og edligeholdelsesinesteringer samt den udenlandske eftersp0rgsel. Kapacitetsudnyttelsesgraden er i isse sektorer naet op pa 80% eller endog mere, medens den, indenfor de samme sektorer, ar pa mellem 60 og 65 under den mest kritiske fase i konjunkturnedgangen. Stigningen i industriproduktionen har reret srerlig markant i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Frankrig og Belgien.

7 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjusted indices 1970 = 100 Scesonkorrigerede tal Danmark ltal ia 150 BelgiqueBelgie Luxembourg United Kingdom _.::_ V r1rr... L R 1,.,. 1\ )G r... s:: L, K \ looo....,.,.,..,.for 100 \ \ \... r \ \, " r ll 160 Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal BR Deutschland reland France Nederland ;;;;.. ::: :..._....;:.,. _...,...,;= " J FMAMJ J ASOHDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAM J JASON OJ FMAMJ J. ASOND

8 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (thousands) (i tusinde) J """...!, "......,.. 1. """ ;.oc...,.,., 7 """"", """""" l..:,.,.. 1 r" V """"...,..,..,.,..,...,......:;::::. K..:::......, r " 1\_....,...\".,_. 20 Oanmark BR Deutschland France 15 ltalia reland Nederland 10 BelgiqueBelgie nit Kigdm T7" _ l 1" 1 j J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 H D J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 H D Thanks to the improement m the economic situation, the seasonallyadjusted number of wholly unemployed in the Community seems, generally speaking, to hae stopped rising in the first few months of 1976 and shorttime working has apparently started to decline in some countries, particularly the Federal Republic of Germany. n the United Kingdom, an upturn in job acancies was recorded in March, but in other Member States offers of work generally remained at a low leel. For the Community as a whole, the number of wholly unemployed as a percentage of the labour force amounted in February to some 4.3%, of which approximately 2.8% was accounted for by men and.5% by women (rates calculated using!stat figures for taly). Unemployment among young people remained a source of particular concern. At the beginning of the year, about 1.8 million people under twentyfie were seeking employment in the Community ; depending on the country, the number of young people without jobs represents between 30 and 40% of the total number of wholly unemployed. Som f0lge af konjunkturfremgangen er det sresonkorrigerede antal af fuldtids arbejdsl0se i Frellesskabet bleet mere eller mindere stabiliseret i l0bet af de f0rste mcineder af 976, medens antallet af arbejdsl0se pci nedsat tid endog synes at hae ist tegn pci tilbagegang i isse ande og i srerlig grad i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Det forenede Kongerige har der reret noteret en stigning i antallet af ledige stillingen i marts mcined. Generelt er dette tal forbleet lat i de 0rige medlemslande. For Frellesskabet som helhed skulle arbejdsl0shedsprocenten for fuldtids arbejdsl0se i forhold til den erhersaktie befolkning i februar mcined nci op pci omkring 4,3%, som fordeler sig med ca. 2,8% for mrend og,5% for kinder (ed beregningen af procentsatsen for talien er benyttet tal fra 1ST AT). Ungdomsarbejdsl0sheden er fortsat foruroligende. begyndelsen af ciret kunne Frellesskabet trelle ca. 8QO 000 arbejdss0gende unge under 25 cir: dette sarer til mellem 30 og 40% af det samlede antal guldtids arbejdsi0se afhangig af medlemsland.

9 CONSUMER PRCES FORBRUGERPRSER A = 100 Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % BR Deutschland France ltolia BelgiqueBelgie Luxembourg f1 + 2, l, io""" , ;:7,_.,,.,...,_. Danmark... reland Nederland United Kingdom ::::=:.,, w!...,...,.,.,..,.,.,.. "....,... "" ::::::, _ 0 0,5 + 3,0 + 2,5 + 2,0 + 1,5 + 1,0 + 0, l 1 l l J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAM J JASOND 0 The February statistics confirmed the emergence of a fresh bout of inflation in the Community, with the rise in consumer prices oer the preceding twele months reaching about 13 Y 2 %, compared with 12 Y 2 % in January and 10% in the final three months of Howeer, the main cause of this deterioration is to be found in the strong acceleration recorded in taly, where there were large increases in the prices of certain serices and foodstuffs. n addition, inflationary pressures in the United Kingdom, while they hae stopped getting worse, remained stronger than in the rest of the Community. Furthermore, the rapid rise in the prices of foodstuffs in seeral Member States since the closin_g months of 1975 has persisted and spread to all countries, including the Federal Republic of Germany. Although this deelopment is due partly to seasonal factors, other factors such as shortages on a number of markets hae contributed. Generally speaking, te prices of manuf.flctures again rose at a slightly less rapid rate than consumer prices as a whole, although sharp increases were recorded in certain countries for some of these items as well, notably for clothing in the United Kingdom and petrol and petroleum deriaties in other Member States. Statistikkerne for februar maned bekrrefter den genopblussen af inflationen. i Frellesskabet, der har ist sig. Stigningen i forbrugerpriserne er saledes naet op pa ca. 13 Y 2 % pa arsbasis mod 12 Y 2 % i januar og 10% for de tre sidste maneder af midlertid skal arsagen til denne forrerring S0ges i den strerkt accelererende stigning, som er registreret i talien, hor resentlige forh0jelser isrer har ramt priserne pa isse tjenesteydelser og pa f0dearer. Dertil kommer, at de inflationistiske sprendinger i Det forenede Kongerige, sel om de ikke er bleet yderligere forrerret, fortsat er strerkere end i Frellesskabet i0rigt. Desuden er den kraftige prisstigning for f0dearer, der er registreret i tlere medlemsstater siden de sidste maneder af 1975, fortsat og har bredt sig til aile landene, herunder ogsa Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Sel om denne udikling delis er sresonprreget, har andre faktorer, som f.eks. de pa nogle markeder opstaede mangler, bidraget hertil. Generelt er stigningstakten fortsat knap sa hurtig for industriarer som for de samlede forbrugerpriser, sel om isse af disse arers priser er steget kraftigt i nogle ande. Dette har isrer reret tilfreldet for beklredningsartikler i Det forenede Kongerige samt for bezin og andre olieprodukter i de 0rige medlemsstater.

10 A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur Danmark r BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL "".F =\ y A : ?( _... r... p f. ><.., fl """" 1 1. =... _... _, , " r la \ \ rj 1 " (l \ ; ) V \.. i\. " \,J_ " 16QO CE EG EC France 1800 r lreland ltalia United Kingdom " \ " r \, \ 2000 f i l 1 l l 1 l l l 1 1 J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N OJ F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 The Communitys trade balance kept on deteriorating in the early months of 1976, but probably more slowly than in the second helf of last year, due to some easing in the rate of increase of imports and a gradual recoery in exports in some countries. n France exports hae recently been growing more rapidly, especially to other Community countries, and national statistics for February indicate an imporoement in the trade deficit. n the Federal Republic of Germany the trade surplus, which had remained fairly steady since the autumn declined again in February as a result of a drop in exports. n taly, a sharp worsening in the trade deficit in December due to a ery large increase in imports was reersed in January. National statistics for the United Kingdom in February showed a sharp rise in imports of industrial materials and a slowdown in exports to deeloping countries, including oilproducing countries ; the deficit widened somewhat from its leel in the two preceding months. A surge in imports has led to a deterioration in the trade deficit of Denmark in recent months. Frellesskabets handelsbalance ble fortsat forringet i de fejrste m<ineder af 1976, men sandsynligis langsommmre end i andet hal<ir af 1975 p <i grund af en noget mindre stigningstakt for importen og et gradist opsing i eksporten i nogle ande. Frankrig er eksporten, isrer til de 0rige frellesskabslande, i den sidste tid steget strerkere, og franske statistikker for februar antyder et fald i handelsunderskuddet. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland faldt handelsoerskuddet, som hade reret ret stabilt siden efter<iret, igen i februar p <i grund af et fald i eksporten. talien ble den kraftige forrerring a f handelsunderskuddet i december, som f0 lge af en meget stor fomgelse a f importen, endt i januar. februar iste nationale statistikker i Det forenede Kongerige en kraftig stigning i importen a f r<iarer til industrien og et fald i eksporten ti l udiklingslandene, inklusie olieproducerende ande ; underskuddet fomgedes no get i forhold til nieauet de to foreg<iende m <ineder. En stigning i importen har f0 rt til en for0gelse af handelsunderskuddet i Da nmark i de seneste m <i neder.

11 OUTPUT N THE METAL PRODUCTS NDUSTRES PRODUKTON METALNDUSTR Dl 1970 = Dan mark 160 France BelgiqueBelgie Luxembourg United Kingdom filii""" 120 """" _,_ 1.,.,..,... "...,., ,.._ CE EG EC 180 BR Deutschland reland ltalia 1 Nederland r:.. 1 "......_,_ r...,., J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND The decline in production in the metal products industries in 1975 proed to be much less marked in industry as a whole. According to the Community index drawn up by the Statistical Office of the European Communities, the recoery in this sector got under way only in the middle of the fourth quarter, but has since gathered pace steadily. Underpinned mainly by the expansion in motor hicle production, which in January was more than 16% up on the January 1975 figure for the Community as a whole, it was also spurred on by the increase in the demand for electrical household appliances and other consumer durables. Firms were beginning to rebuild stocks of semimanufactures once again, and this, too, helped to boost the recoery. Demand remained ery sluggish, howeer, in mechanical engineering and the recession in the shipbuilding industry persisted. Neertheless, there can be seen initial signs of a reial in dema nd for light machinery, particularly in the Federal Republic of Germany, and a large inflow of orders, notably in the United Kingdom, connected with the oil inestment projects being carried out in the North Sea. Det produktionsfald, der registreredes 1975 inden for metalforarbejdningen, iste sig at cere betydeligt mindre mcerkbart end inden for industrien som helhed. f0lge fcellesskabsindeksen fra De europceiske Fcellesskabers statistiske Kontor kom opsinget i denne sektor f0rst i midten af fjerde kartal sidste <1 r, men det er fortsat jcent siden da. Opsinget skyldtes hoedsagelig reksten i automobilproduktionen som i januar for Fcellesskabet som helhed 1<1 mere end 16% oer nieauet for januar 1975, og desuden stigningen i eftersp0rgslen efter elektriske husholdningsartikler og andre arige forbrugsgoder. En begyndende genopbygning af lagrene af halfabrikata har ligeledes bidraget til opsinget. 0rigt er eftersp0rgslen fortsat sag inden for maskinindustrien, og der er fortsat tilbagegang inden for skibsbygningsindustrien. Man har imidlertid kunnet konstatere de f0rste tegn p<1 opsing i eftersp0rgslen efter sm<1 og mellemstore maskiner, iscer i Forbundsrepublikken T yskland, samt en cesentlig be tand af ordrer, der har tilknytning til de i Vesterhaet foretagne olieinesteringer, iscer for Det forenede Kongerige.

12 D2 DWELLNGS AUTHORZED (thousands) BOLGER HVORTL DER ER GVET BYGGETLLADELSER (i tusind) J3 1 B R Deutschland France 120 ltalia Nederland BelgiqueBelg ie 100 reland Danmark " 60 AV 50 r..._ "1\. A ! " V A _ \ "" r,. "V A.. 1\ J ;, L \ \ J J \ "V"" """ \ _:{ \ r \., \ \ \ A """ l,\ 1 "" 11 \, \ \; l l f i\ J ll \) 1\ J l lj., V,, \ 1\ "1 t,..,.,. " u \ l \ la A u \A t, l y", \... \ l.. r \...,.. l l 1 l, J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND The modest recoery which had got under way in residential construction at the end oflast year, in the Community as a whole, took a firm hold in the early months of n Denmark and Belgium, the number of dwellings authorized was higher than a year earlier. n the Federal Republic of Germany and France, authorizations hae still not yet climbed back to the leel reached a year earlier. None the less, in the Federal Republic of Germany the recoery in the building industry gathered considerable momentum and the same was true of France, particularly in the residential construction sector. Judging by the number of completions, actiity in the residential construction sector in the United Kingdom was more buoyant than a year earlier. The recent expansion in actiity in the construction industry in all the countries except taly should to judge from a number of conjunctural indicators, gather pace in the months ahead. Det moderate opsing, der, i Frellesskabet som helhed, karakteriserede udiklingen i boligbyggeriet i slutningen afsidste ar, ble bekrreftet i de ferste maneder af Danmark og Belgien har antallet af tilladelser udstedt til opf0relse af boliger reret h0jere end aret f0r. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og i Frankrig er man endnu ikke naet op pa nieauet fra samme periode sidste ar. kke desto mindre kan der i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland konstateres en tydelig forstrerkning af opsinget for byggeriets edkommende ; det sam me har reret tilfreldet i Frankrig, isrer for sa idt angar boligbyggeriet. Det forenede Kongerige er aktiiteten i denne sektor at d0mme efter antallet af frerdiggjorte boliger okset sammenlignet med foregaende ar. Den kraftige stigning som i den sidste tid har kendetegnet byggeriet i aile medlemslandene, med undtagelse af talien, kan, sadan som nogle af konjunkturindikatorerne tyder pa, forstrerkes i lebet af de kommende maneder.

13 TAX REVENUE SKATTENDTJEGTER D3 Mrd DM Mrd FF l rr ll V ll V Mrd Lit 8000 Mio Fl ll V ll V Mio Flbg 3500r...Mio 3ooor+r1 1!!7....._.,... _...,_, " ll V ll V The trend of tax reenue in a number of Community countries appears to be already reflecting the recoery. Partly as a result of the growth in receipts last autumn the 1975 budget deficits in the Federal Republic of Germany and the Netherlands were somewhat narrower than had been expected a few months before. Similarly, in the United Kingdom and Denmark, where the financial year closes at the end of March, the deficit will undoubtedly be slightly smaller than some unduly pessimjstic forecasts had suggested. A number of expansionary budget policy measures hae been taken recently. n France, collection of the corporation tax due on 15 March has been held oer until middecember n Belgium, the tax incenties to promote inestments granted last summer hae been extended by six months to the end of June. n taly, a number of direct tax concessions were introduced at the beginning of the year. n March, howeer, the talian Goenment was forced to raise the indirect tax rate on many products. reland plans to raise the VAT rate on a wide range of consumer goods. tlere af Frellesskabets ande synes udiklingen i skatteindtregterne allerede at afspejle det fornyede konjunkturopsing. Deter delis som f0lge af den stigning i indtregterne, der registreredes i l0bet af sidste eftenh, at budgetunderskuddet for 1975 i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og i Nederlandene ble lidt mindre, end man frygtede for mogle mlineder siden. Det forenede Kongerige og i Danmark, hor finansliret slutter med udgangen af marts, ii underskuddet ligeledes uden til rere lidt mindre end isse oerpessimistiske beregninger lod frygte. den seneste tid er der bleet truffet isse budgetmressige foranstaltninger med ekspansionistisk irkning. Frankrig er opkrreningen afhaldelen af de selskabsskatter, der forfaldt den 15. marts bleet udskudt til medio december Belgien er de skattefordele, der sidste sommer ble indf0rt for inesteringer, bleet forlrenget med seks m.neder, d..s. indtil udgangen afjuni talien indf0rtes ed.rets begyndelse isse lettelser i den direkte beskatning. midten af marts m.ned s. den italienske regering sig imidlertid tunget til at forh0je de indirekte afgifter p. talrige arer. rland forentes merrerdiafgiften forh0jet for en lang rrekke forbrugsarer.

14 D4 SHARE PRCES AKTEKURSER 1970 = l J J T r l T " y \ \,...ooo".. j ".4.., ". \ "" A \ Vfl \... 1\\: b( 11 \ N CE EG EC BR Deutschland f ltalia Nederland United Kingdom "" _,...,,... \,...,..., _,. i _ \ _j.\,_,.._.;.; (<.:: t>t..::: P,,,... r 1. ".,""..., \.... \ """ \ \, to\. ", 1 c" f.. ll \ [\ """...., \.,... i _,., \"" \ "! " \ "" V France reland \ 80 Danmark BelgiqueBelgie 70 1 Luxembourg 60 l J l_l J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 The upward trend of share price recorded in almost all Community countrie ince last autumn has been maintained in This trend was encouraged by increasingly conincing eidence of a lasting improement in the economic situation and by an abundance of liquidity. t was, howeer, held back and, indeed, interrupted at the end of March, by the disturbed conditions on the foreign exchange markets: suspension of official quotations of foreign currencies in taly from 20 January to March when the lira dipped steeply, weakness of sterling during the first half of March, pressure on the French franc which forced it out of the Community exchange rate system on 15 March, and, finally, speculation on the Deutsche mark in the hope that it would be realued within the "snake". The negatie impact of these factors on share prices was felt less strongly in those countries whose currencies gained strength than in the others. n March, share prices in the Federal Republic of Germany moed upwards, while they faltered in the Netherlands, lost ground in Belgium and, in the second half of the month, fell sharply in taly, France and United Kingdom. On the New York Stock Exchange, howeer, the DowJones index rose aboe the mark on seeral occasions in march, reacting to encouraging news about the United States economy. Den stigning i aktiekurserne, der siden sidste efterr konstateredes i nresten aile Frellesskabets ande, fortsatte i Den ble begunstiget af stadig klarere tegn p en arig konjunkturforbedring og af en rigelig likiditet. Den ble imidlertid, indtil den oph0rte i slutningen af marts, modirket af de forstyrrelser, der opstod p alutamarkederne: suspention af den officielle notering af udenlandske alutaer i talien fra den 20. januar til den 1. marts som f0lge af et kraftigt fald i kursen p lire, pundets srekkelse gennem de f0rste 14 dage i marts, presset mod den franske franc, som den 15. marts efterfulgtes af denne alutas udtrreden af det frelles alutasystem, og endelig spekulationen mod Dmarken som f0lge af udsigterne til en eentuel realuering inden for»slangen«. Disse faktorers negatie irkning p aktiekurserne ar mindre mrerkbar i de ande, hor alutaerne styrkedes, end ide 0rige Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland ar en opadgende tendens for kurserne fremherskende i marts, mens stigningen ble afbrudt i Nederlandene, kurserne ar igende i Belgien, og der konstateredes betydelige fald i talien, Frankrig og Det forenede Kongerige i mnedens sidste haldel. Efter en rrekke opmuntrende oplysninger om de amerikanske konjunkturer nede DOWJONESindekset p New Yorks b0rs derimod flere gange oer i l0bet af marts mned.

15 LONGTERM NTEREST RATES LANGFRSTEDE RENTESATSER. 05 % , , Danmark B R Deutschland lrlande United Kingdom,.?,... J..\ \ ( V \ rr \ lj_ j, la 1\ Y.J :\ _i A \ if,,,,... "" \..._.,! ; 1 " V _J 0 1 "....A. " _, France ltalia Nederland BelgiqueBelgie a... 0,_..J,\.._ r 1\ 1 u l. ;. [. _ ".,. r 6 J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0.N 0 The disturbed conditions on the foreign exchange markets and the subsequent retightening of monetary policy in countries with weak currencies lead to a decrease in shortterm rates. The trend in the longterm interest rate, which had been declining almost eerywhere since last autumn, also seems to hae changed direction in a number of Member States. n taly, yields on fixedinterest securities hae risen appreciably since February, and the same happened in the United Kingdom in March. n Belgium and more particularly in Denmark, a similar deelopment has been seen since the autumn. At the beginning of February, the Danish Finance Minister was authorized to float large issues of medium and longterm securities. These should help to mop up the surplus liquidity generated by a heay budget deficit while curbing tle rise in longterm interest rates to help support actiity in the building and construction sector. On 22 March, the agreements relating to a Community loan to taly and reland were signed. Applications for the issue hae far exceeded the amounts offered ( $ 300 million at the rate of8 14% and OM 500 million at 7 14%). n addition, $ 500 million hae been placea priately, and a further$ 300 million will be added to this in the form of renewable bank loans at a ariable interest rate. Forstyrrelserne, som har pairket alutamarkederne og den heraf f0lgende stramning af pengepolitikken i landene med sage alutaer har medf0rd stigning ide kortfristede rentesatser. For sa idt angar de langfristede rentesatser, som nresten oeralt har reret faldende siden sidste efterar, synes der ligeledes at kunne noteres en rendret tendens i isse medlemslande. Saledes er i talien den effektie rente pa rerdipapirer med fast afkast steget inrerkbart siden februar og i Det forende Kongerige siden marts. En tilsarende udikling er siden efteraret konstateret i Belgien og isrer i Danmark. begyndelsen af februar ble den danske finansminister bemyndiget til at udstede betydelige mrengder mellem og langfristede rerdipapirer. Disse skulle g0re det muligt at opsuge den oerskydende likiditet, der er resultatet af et betydeligt budgetunderskud, og samtidig holde den langfristede rente nede med henblik pa at st0tte byggeaktiiteten. Den 22. marts ble aftalerne edmrende et frellesskabslan til ltalien og rland undertegnet i Bruxelles. Tegningen oersteg det udbudte bel0b (300 mio dollars til8 14% i rente og 500 mio mark til 7 14% i rente). Desuden il 500 mio dollars blie placeret priat, hortil f0jes 300 mio dollars i form af bankkreditter, der kan fornyes og til ariabel rente.

16 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FA:LLESSKABET CE EG EC. BR Deutschland France 60 ltalia 70 % of answers % af sar r:: t " ",,,.._,. \ Z V" \ 1f reland Nederland Belgique Belgie 1 JFMAM JJ A S Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning "\ ""!"" \ \\ \\.. "" l\1 \ " " \. \ l\.1 \.1.J 17,J 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 J "FM Jy S 0 N 0 J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 %of answers % af sar ?31 CE EG EC BR Deutschland F(ance + 50 fltalia reland Nederland Belgique Belgie r "7 "". \ Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af frerdigarelagre d \ ;J,... \ j..._ \...,., ll N "\ r...., L J \ A,, " \ J FMAM J J A S ON OJ F MAMJ J A SO NO J FMAM J J ASONO J F MAM J J ASONO 1 ) Ex cluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. 1 ) Eksklusie bygge og anlcegsirksomhed, nee rings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

17 Expectations : production Produktionsforentoinger %of answers % af sar CE EG EC B R Deutschland France 30 reland ltalia Nederland Graphs and show businessmens iews of their total orderhooks and their stocks o(finished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages of the aifference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( +) and the percentage of those who find them "below normal" (). Graph m shows threemonth moing aerages of the difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( + ) and those who expected it to be down (). The table below shows businessmens assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( +) being aboe normal, ( = ) being normal, () being below normal. t also shows whether. they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( + ), no change ( = ) or decrease () in their production and in their selling prices. Di rammerne og gengier tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af rskels{f!rdien melem irksomhedsledernes sar»sterre«( +) og»mindre«() edrerende ordrebestand og f{f!rdigarelagre. Diagram iser ligeledes i form af tre maneders glidende gennemsnit forskels{f!rdien ( procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»foregelse«( +) eller en»formindskelse«() af produktionen. Nedenstaende tabel gengier for de seneste tre maneder irksomhedsledernes bedemmelse af, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og f{f!rdigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eller forholdsis sma (). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( +), nogenlunde u{f!ndrede ( =) eller aftagende () produktion og salgspriser i de felgende tre eller fire maneder anfert. BR Deutschland France D J F D J F Total orderbooks = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks = Den udenlandske ordrebeholdning Stocks of finished goods = Frerdigarelagre Expectations: production = Produktionsforentningerne Expectations: selling prices = Salgsprisforentninger ? 3 2 reland t alia Nederland Belgique Luxem EC Belgie bourg EF D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F 14 7 <)

18 Obserations on the Graphs Benuerkninger til diagrammeme A 1 ndustrial production: indices of the S.O.E.C., excluding construction and for France, the food, drink and tabacco industries). For the deseasonaized indices, three month moing aerages. Community: estimates. reland: quarterly index. A 1 lndustriproduktion: index ( excl. bygge og ankegsirksomhed og for Frankrig ncerings og nydelsesmiddeindustri) udarbejdet af S.K.E.F. Scesonkorrigerede index fremtrceder som tre mtineders ghdende gennemsnit. Fcellesskabet: skon. rland: kartalsindex. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. France: number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A2 Antal arbejdslsse: Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit af scesonkorrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kontor for De europceiske Fcelesskaber. Frankrig: anta arbejdssegende. talien: kuren angier antal personer, registreret pd arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke til antal arbejdslose. Luxembourg: ubetydelig arbejdsloshed. Belgien: fuldtids ledige personer, som modtager arbejdsloshedsunderstottelse. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europceiske Fcellesskaber. A4 Balance of trade: ncluding intracommunity trade. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. ThreemontH moing aerages. Exports fob, imports elf; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A4 Handelsbalance: nklusie handel indenfor Fcellesskabet. Fcelesskabet: kun handel med ikke medlemslande. Beregnet pd grundlag af tal for import og eksport scesonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kontor for De europceiske Fcellesskaber. Tre mdneders gidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.if., eksklusie monetcert guld. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder cere deis baseret pd skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: fcelles kure. D 1 Output in the metal products industries: Seasonally adjusted indices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities; Three month moing aerages. Comparable figures are not aailable for Denmark and reland. D 1 Produktion i metalindustri: Scesonkorrigeret indeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europceiske Fcelesskaber; tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. For rland og Danmark foreigger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. D 2 Dwellings authorised: Number of dwellings for which permits hae been issued. Germany: from 1968 West Berlin excluded. Comparable jigures are not aailable for the United Kingdom. Source: SOEC. D 2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelser: Antal udstedte byggetilladelser til boligbyggeri. Tyskand: eksklusie Vest Berlin. For Det forenede Kongerige foreligger endnu ikke sammenligneige tal. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Department of Local Goernment. D 3 Tax reenue: Goernment tax reenue. Monthly aerages. Germany: Federal and Lander taxes. Source: SOEC, reland: Central Statistics Office, Denmark: Danmarks Statistik. D 3 Skatteindt lllgter: Statens skatteindtregter mlmedsgennemsnit Tyskland: inklusie skatteindtcrgter i delstaterne. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Central Statics Office, Danmark: Danmarks Statistik. D4 Share prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. D4 Aktiekurser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europceiske Fcellesskaber. D 5 Longterm interest rates: Yield on fixedinterestbearing securities. Belgium: goernment securities maturing in oer 5 years issued after 1 December France: interest yield on securities in the priate sector; 2nd category loans. Netherlands: aerage yield of the three most recent goernment loans. Germany: all stock exchange securities quoted. taly: yield on bonds. United Kingdom, reland and Denmark: Goernment Bond Yield. Source: SOEC. D 5 Langfristede rentesatser: Ajkast af cerdipapirer med fast nomine rente. Belgien: Statscerdipapirer med mere end 5 drs lobetid udstedt efter 1. december Frankrig: renteafkast af cerdipapirer i den priate sektor; 2. prioritets ldn. Nederlandene: gennemsnitsrente af de 3 seneste statsldn. Tyskand aile borsnoterede cerdipapirer. ltaien: afkast af obligationer. Det forenede Kongerige, rland og Danmark: Ajkast af statsobligationer. Kilde: SKEF. 1 Eur = (Februaryjfebruar 1976) 3,21978 DM 5,55419 Ffr 3,35507 Fl 956 Lit 48,6572 FbFlx 0,615 7,57831 Dkr