Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

Transkript

1 3. december 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Så er dagen oprundet for det med spænding ventede ECB-rentemøde. Draghi antydede på det seneste rentemøde i oktober, at yderligere pengepolitisk stimulans kan blive vedtaget på dagens møde. Siden da er forventningerne til mere stimulans vokset yderligere, og ECB har ikke forsøgt at begrænse disse forventninger. Draghi har senest udtalt, at ECB "vil gøre, hvad vi må gøre for at løfte inflationen så hurtigt som muligt". Denne erklæring minder meget om hans berømte ord om at ECB vil gøre "hvad end der skal til tilbage i Læg dertil hans understregelse af, at i vurderingen af risici for prisstabiliteten vil ECB ikke ignorere det faktum, at inflationen allerede har været lav i nogen tid. Det indikerer, at selv om inflationen har været stigende i år (og meget vel kan fortsætte opad i de kommende måneder) er det ikke gået hurtigt nok. Så Draghi synes nu at fokusere på at få inflationen hurtigt op på målsætningen og ikke blot at forebygge deflation. Vi forventer dog ikke en stor bred stimulanspakke fra ECB på rentemødet. Vi forventer, at ECB nedsætter indlånsrenten med 0,10%-point til - 0,30% og samtidigt signalerer, at yderligere nedsættelser er mulige. Dette vil sandsynligvis blive suppleret med en forlængelse af QE programmet til efter september 2016, men dog ikke på ubestemt tid allerede nu. Vi forventer således ikke en udvidelse af QE-programmets månedlige opkøbsvolumen samt af de aktivklasser de kan opkøbes inden for. Men det kan vel følge i Vi vurderer, at der er en risiko for, at ECB kan skuffe markedsforventningerne en smule. Draghi vil dog givet forsøge at kompensere for dette ved at signalere, at ECB fortsat vil være i lempelsestilstand fremadrettet. Om noget ser vi dog mulighed for en vis skuffelse over stimu-lansomfanget. Fra USA kommer ISM s indeks for servicesektoren, og her ventes et lille fald i november til 58,0 oven på den overraskende stigning i oktober til 59,1. Det baserer vi primært på det seneste lidt overraskende fald i forbrugertilliden. Læg dertil, at PMI s serviceindeks har udviklet sig noget mere afdæmpet, faktisk detailhandel fortsat har skuffet en smule og at servicepriserne faktisk er accelereret de seneste to måneder. EUR: Rentesænkning på 10 bp fuldt indpriset Kilde: Macrobond, Bloomberg Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Der var små aktiekursfald i Europa i går og lidt større i USA. Sidstnævnte var måske drevet af, at flere Fed-taler gjorde det endnu tydeligere, at Fed nok hæver renten på mødet denne måned. Asiatiske aktier er blandede her til morgen. Statsrenterne lå stort set fladt i går og EUR svækkedes lidt over for USD. Olieprisen faldt (WTI under 40 USD / tønde) forud for OPEC-mødet i morgen. Kina: Service-PMI fra Markit faldt til 51,2 i november fra 52,0. Dermed går Markits sevice-pmi i modsat retning af det officielle service-pmi, ligesom det var tilfældet for de to fremstillings-pmi. Fortegnet er dog omvendt denne gang. USA: Fed-chef Yellen holdt tale i går, hvor hun endnu en gang lød som om, hun er klar til at komme med den første renteforhøjelse. Hun sagde, at arbejdsmarkedet vil blive forbedret yderligere fremover, og at inflationen vil nå op på 2%. Ifølge den seneste Fed-rentemelding er det lige præcis disse to faktorer, som skal være opfyldt før FOMC er klar til at hæve renten. Udover Yellen var bl.a. også Lockhart på talerstolen i går. Han udtalte, at det virker tillokkende, at hæve renten. Fed s Beige book med anekdotiske input fra de regionale Fed viste, at otte ud af 12 distrikter betegner fremgangen som afdæmpet. Ët distrikt meldte om moderat fremgang, men de resterende tre meldte om uændret eller aftagende vækst. ADP-indikatoren for den private beskæftigelse viste en fremgang på personer i november, noget bedre end ventet. ADPrapporten er dog ikke den mest pålidelige indikator for den faktiske beskæftigelsesfremgang, som offentliggøres i morgen. Euroområdet: Forbrugerprisinflationen var 0,1% y/y, hvilket var uændret i forhold til oktober. Der var ventet en stigning, og dermed medvirker den lave inflation til at understøtte forventningerne om ny ECB-stimulans på dagens vigtige rentemøde. Kerneinflationen (eksklusive fødevarer, energi og tobak) faldt tilbage til 0,9% y/y fra forrige 1,1%. Danmark: Valutareserven faldt kun med 7,7 mia. kr. til 483,9 mia. kr. i november, hvilket var væsentligt mindre end hvad vi havde regnet med. Således intervenerede (solgte valuta) Nationalbanken kun i markedet for 7,1 mia. kr. hvilket er det laveste beløb siden presset på den danske krone ebbede ud i løbet af foråret. Den begrænsede interventionsaktivitet kan indikere, at svækkelsespresset på den danske krone som følge af de rekordlave renter er aftaget, hvilket muligvis skal ses i lyset af de tiltagende forventninger til, at ECB vil lempe pengepolitikken yderligere i dag. EUR: Kerneinflationen faldt forud for ECB-mødet For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 3. december 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,20% / indeks 1057,98) endte i et beskedent positivt territorium på trods af, at de foreløbige inflationstal fra Eurozonen understregede råderummet for yderligere lempelser. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet Genmab (+2,02% / kurs 909,50) og fik dermed indhentet noget af tirsdagens tabte. Novo Nordisk (+1,30% / kurs 398,80) endte også højere efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. Vestas (+0,41% / kurs 461,70) endte en smule højere efter vindmølleproducenten kunne annoncere yderligere en ordre op 36 MW til det tyske marked. I den anden ende af indekset endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-3,16% / kurs ,00) efter et internationalt analysehus var ude med en negativ rapport, som indikerede, at der er mere modvind på vej til containermarkedet. Renter De tyske statsrenter endte dagen i går uændret fra forrige dags luk. Der var ellers en tendens til rentestigning fra morgenstunden, men det blev vendt til faldt efter offentliggørelsen af inflationstal for euroområdet. Tallene viste lavere end ventet inflation, og det bestyrkede markedsdeltagerne i troen på yderligere lempelser fra ECB i dag. De amerikanske statsrenter havde små stigninger over dagen. Det var nok især drevet af udtalelser fra flere Fed-folk, som alle pegede på, at renteforhøjelsen fra Fed kommer i denne måned. Fx sagde Yellen, at arbejdsmarkedet vil blive forbedret yderligere fremover, og at inflationen vil nå op på 2%. Ifølge den seneste Fed-rentemelding er det lige præcis disse to faktorer, som skal være opfyldt før FOMC er klar til at hæve renten. De små rentestigninger blev måske også hjulpet på vej af ADP-indikatoren for den private beskæftigelse, som viste en fremgang på personer i november, noget bedre end ventet. Valuta EUR svækkedes over for USD i går, måske fordi inflationen i euroområdet var uændret i november. Der var ventet en stigning. Det øgede forventningen til nye stimulanser fra ECB. USD-styrkelsen over for EUR og mange andre valutaer var drevet af Fed-chefs Yellens udtalelser, som endnu en gang pegede på, at renteforhøjelsen kommer i denne måned. Flere andre Fed-taler slog samme tone an. GBP svækkede en del over for både USD og EUR, måske pga. et svagt PMI for bygge- og anlægssektoren CNY er svækket lidt over for USD, især i offshore-handlen, på spekulationer om at CNY vil få lov at svækkes nu hvor IMF også formelt har vedtaget indlemmelsen af CNY i IMF s SDR valutakurv. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 3. december 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 02/12/15 BoConcept Holding 2. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 30/11/15 00:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Oct P 1.8%/-0.9% %/-0.8% 1.4%/-1.4% 30/11/15 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.4%/2.9% %/3.5% -0.4%/2.1% 30/11/15 09:00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Oct 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.5% 30/11/15 09:00 Danmark GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 3Q P 0.0%/1.1% -0.1%/1.0% 0.2%/1.8% -0.1%/0.9% 30/11/15 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Nov (r) /11/15 09:30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q 0.4%/3.4% 0.4%/3.3% 1.0%/3.4% 0.8%/3.9% 30/11/15 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov P 0.1%/0.4% %/0.3% 0.1%/0.4% 30/11/15 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov /11/15 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct 1.0%/4.5% %/3.2%(r) 0.2%/2.1% 01/12/15 02:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Nov /12/15 02:00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Nov /12/15 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Mfg Nov /12/15 07:45 Schweiz GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q 0.2%/0.8% 0.1%/ 0.2%/0.9% 0.0%/0.8% 01/12/15 08:30 Sverige Swedbank/Silf PMI Manufacturing Nov (r) /12/15 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Nov /12/15 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Nov /12/15 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Claims Rate SA Nov 6.4% % 6.3% 01/12/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov F /12/15 10:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Nov /12/15 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Oct 10.8% 10.8% 10.8% 10.7% 01/12/15 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F /12/15 16:00 USA Construction Spending MoM Oct 0.6% % 1.0% 01/12/15 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Nov /12/15 USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Nov 18.10m m 18.12m 02/12/15 02:00 USA Fed's Brainard Speaks on Lower Neutral Rates 02/12/15 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Oct -0.4%/-3.2% %/-3.1% -0.3%/-3.1% 02/12/15 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Nov 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 02/12/15 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Nov A 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% 02/12/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 27. Nov % -0.2% 02/12/15 14:10 USA Fed's Lockhart, Yellen, Williams Speaks 02/12/15 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Nov 190k k 217k 02/12/15 14:30 USA Unit Labor Costs 3Q F 1.0% % 1.8% 02/12/15 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Nov /12/15 20:00 USA U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 03/21/15 02:45 Kina Caixin China PMI Services Nov /12/15 07:30 Frankrig ILO Unemployment Rate 3Q 10.4% % 03/12/15 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Nov F /12/15 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Nov /12/15 11:00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.2%/2.6% %/2.9% 03/12/15 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Nov % 03/12/15 13:45 EMU ECB Main Refinancing Rate 03. Dec 0.05% 0.05% 0.05% 03/12/15 13:45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 03. Dec -0.30% -0.30% -0.20% 03/12/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 28. Nov 270k k 03/12/15 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Nov F /12/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 29. Nov /12/15 16:00 USA Yellen Appears Before Congressional Joint Economic Coomittee 03/12/15 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Nov /12/15 16:00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Oct 1.4% % 03/12/15 19:10 USA Fed Vice Chair Fischer Speaks 04/12/15 06:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Nov /12/15 08:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Oct 1.2%/-2.5% %/-1.0% 04/12/15 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.0%/-1.3% %/-1.4% 04/12/15 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Oct -0.8%/4.0% 0.2%/5.4% 2.0%/6.3% 04/12/15 09:30 Tyskland Markit Germany Construction PMI Nov /12/15 10:10 EMU Markit Eurozone Retail PMI Nov /12/15 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 200k 210k 271k 04/12/15 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Nov 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 04/12/15 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings YoY Nov 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 04/12/15 21:45 USA Fed's Bullard, Kocherlakota speaks Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

4 Research disclaimers Handelsbanken Capital Markets, a division of Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) (collectively referred to herein as SHB ), is responsible for the preparation of research reports. SHB is regulated in Sweden by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority, in Norway by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway, in Finland by the Financial Supervisory of Finland and in Denmark by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. All research reports are prepared from trade and statistical services and other information that SHB considers to be reliable. SHB has not independently verified such information and does not represent that such information is true, accurate or complete. Accordingly, to the extent permitted by law, neither SHB, nor any of its directors, officers or employees, nor any other person, accept any liability whatsoever for any loss, however it arises, from any use of such research reports or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This report has not been given to the subject company, or any other external party, prior to publication to approval the accuracy of the facts presented. The subject company has not been notified of the recommendation, target price or estimate changes, as stated in this report, prior to publication. In no event will SHB or any of its affiliates, their officers, directors or employees be liable to any person for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages arising out of any use of the information contained in the research reports, including without limitation any lost profits even if SHB is expressly advised of the possibility or likelihood of such damages. The views contained in SHB research reports are the opinions of employees of SHB and its affiliates and accurately reflect the personal views of the respective analysts at this date and are subject to change. There can be no assurance that future events will be consistent with any such opinions. Each analyst identified in this research report also certifies that the opinions expressed herein and attributed to such analyst accurately reflect his or her individual views about the companies or securities discussed in the research report. Research reports are prepared by SHB for information purposes only. The information in the research reports does not constitute a personal recommendation or personalised investment advice and such reports or opinions should not be the basis for making investment or strategic decisions. This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any securities nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. Past performance may not be repeated and should not be seen as an indication of future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and investors may forfeit all principal originally invested. Investors are not guaranteed to make profits on investments and may lose money. Exchange rates may cause the value of overseas investments and the income arising from them to rise or fall. This research product will be updated on a regular basis. No part of SHB research reports may be reproduced or distributed to any other person without the prior written consent of SHB. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Please be advised of the following important research disclosure statements: SHB employees, including analysts, receive compensation that is generated by overall firm profitability. Analyst compensation is not based on specific corporate finance or debt capital markets services. No part of analysts compensation has been, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed within research reports. From time to time, SHB and/or its affiliates may provide investment banking and other services, including corporate banking services and securities advice, to any of the companies mentioned in our research. We may act as adviser and/or broker to any of the companies mentioned in our research. SHB may also seek corporate finance assignments with such companies. We buy and sell securities mentioned in our research from customers on a principal basis. Accordingly, we may at any time have a long or short position in any such securities. We may also make a market in the securities of all the companies mentioned in this report. [Further information and relevant disclosures are contained within our research reports.] SHB, its affiliates, their clients, officers, directors or employees may own or have positions in securities mentioned in research reports. According to the Bank s Ethical Guidelines for the Handelsbanken Group, the board and all employees of the Bank must observe high standards of ethics in carrying out their responsibilities at the Bank, as well as other assignments. The Bank has also adopted Guidelines concerning Research which are intended to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank and to resolve any such conflicts by eliminating or mitigating them and/or making such disclosures as may be appropriate. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Information barriers ) on communications between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. The Guidelines concerning Research also include regulations for how payments, bonuses and salaries may be paid out to analysts, what marketing activities an analyst may participate in, how analysts are to handle their own securities transactions and those of closely related persons, etc. In addition, there are restrictions in communications between analysts and the subject company. For full information on the Bank s ethical guidelines please see the Bank s website the bank/investor relations/corporate social responsibility/ethical guidelines. Handelsbanken has a ZERO tolerance of bribery and corruption. This is established in the Bank s Group Policy on Bribery and Corruption. The prohibition against bribery also includes the soliciting, arranging or accepting bribes intended for the employee s family, friends, associates or acquaintances. For company-specific disclosure texts, please consult the Handelsbanken Capital Markets website: When distributed in the UK Research reports are distributed in the UK by SHB. SHB is authorised by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen) and the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority, and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us on request. UK customers should note that neither the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme for investment business nor the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority made under the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) for the protection of private customers apply to this research report and accordingly UK customers will not be protected by that scheme. This document may be distributed in the United Kingdom only to persons who are authorised or exempted persons within the meaning of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (as amended) (or any order made thereunder) or (i) to persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the Order ), (ii) to high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order or (iii) to persons who are professional clients under Chapter 3 of the Financial Conduct Authority Conduct of Business Sourcebook (all such persons together being referred to as Relevant Persons ). When distributed in the United States Important Third-Party Research Disclosures: SHB and its employees are not subject to FINRA s research analyst rules which are intended to prevent conflicts of interest by, among other things, prohibiting certain compensation practices, restricting trading by analysts and restricting communications with the companies that are the subject of the research report. SHB research reports are intended for distribution in the United States solely to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of Each major U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of research report by its acceptance hereof represents and agrees that it shall not distribute or provide research reports to any other person Reports regarding fixed-income products are prepared by SHB and distributed by SHB to major U.S. institutional investors under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). Reports regarding equity products are prepared by SHB and distributed in the United States by Handelsbanken Markets Securities Inc. ( HMSI ) under Rule 15a-6(a)(2). When distributed by HMSI, HMSI takes responsibility for the report. Any U.S. person receiving these research reports that desires to effect transactions in any equity product discussed within the research reports should call or write HMSI. HMSI is a FINRA Member, telephone number ( ).

5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Janne Ronkanen Senior Analyst Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Kari Due-Andresen Head, Macro Research Knut Anton Mork Senior Economist, Norway and China Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen allé 11 Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC