Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

Transkript

1 Commission of the European Communities Kommissionen for De europceiske Fcellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske situation i Fcellesskabet Published monthly Mfmedlig publikation

2 This publication appears monthly. t is intended, by means of graphs and brief commentaries, to proide a continual analysis of the deelopment of the main economic indicators in the Community. Denne publikation udkommer manedligt. Den har til formal ed diagrammer og korte kommentarer at fremlcegge en fortl0ben<ie analyse af de cesentligste konjunkturindikatorers forl0b i Fcellesskabet. n each issue an introductory commentary, deoted to a subject of current or special interest, is always accompanied by the following graphs and notes: A 1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The other graphs and notes appear periodically, alternating as follows: En kortfattet kommentar edmrende et emne af scerlig aktualitet eller interesse efterf0lges i hert nummer altid af nedenncente fire diagrammer og kommentarer: A 1 lndustriproduktion A2 Antal arbejdsl0se A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Handelsbalance De 0rige diagrammer og kommentarer forekommer kun periodisk som anf0rt: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober 81 Exports 82 Trade between member countries 83 Discount rate and callmoney rates 84 Money supply 85 Exchange rates 81 Eksport 82 Handel mellem medlemslandene 83 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente 84 Pengeforsyning 85 Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 mports C1 mport C2 Terms of trade C2 Bytteforhold C3 Wholesale prices C3 Engrospriser C4 Retail sales C4 Detailomscetning C5 Wages C5 L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D1 Produktion i metalindustri D2 Dwellings authorized D2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Tax reenue D3 Skatteindtcegter D4 Share prices D4 Aktiekurser D5 Longterm interest rates D5 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Fcellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemcerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends Rue de la Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F 1ELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi.og Konjunkturudikling Rue de la Loi Bruxelles

4 NDUSTRALST'S ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSNESS STUATON The results of last pecember's harmonized surey of Community industry show that most managements feel that the olume of orders on hand is still inadequate. The answers to this question show a deterioration in comparison with May 1976, which, in the entire recoery period, was the time when management's assessments were the most faourable. The deterioration is the most pronounced in the consumer goods industries. t also seems that the slackening of demand reported concerns only the domestic economies, since export demand has held up fairly well. The replies reeal that stocks of finished products particularly of consumer goods hae swollen a little: the number of managements reporting stocks aboe normal is higher than in Noember. Production expectations are much the same, though some managements are a little less confident than before. Lastly, price strain seems to hae grown: in the consumer goods and capital goods sectors, managements now expect selling prices to rise more rapidly. Trends in managements' opinions ary, howeer, from country to country. n the Federal Republic of Germany, answers are in line with the oerall pattern sketched out aboe, but in France the replies now show that domestic demand has now stopped deteriorating. n reland, production expectations, despite some loss of momentum, are still relatiely optimistic. n taly,'orders on hand for durable consumer goods seem to hae fallen steeply, and production expectations are therefore unfaourable. n the Netherlands, assessments and expectations hae, all in all, become less pessimistic, the main improement being in the intermediate goods sector. n Belgium, the number of managements in the consumer goods industries reporting stocks of finished goods aboe normal is now much higher than in Noember. n this country, as in Luxembourg as well, selling prices are, if anything, tending to fall, in contrast with the trend reealed by the surey in the other Member States. n Luxembourg, production expectations hae also shown a definite improement. n the United Kingdom the production trend has apparently remained fairly firm and British managements look forward to a general increase in their selling prices. Brussels, 31 December VRKSOMHEDERNES SYN PA KONJUNKTURUDVKLNGEN Resultaterne af den harmoniserede unders0gelse, som gennemf0rtes i december 1976 inden for industrien i Frellesskabet iser, at ordrebeholdningen som helhed stadig anses som rerende utilstrrekkelig. De bed0mmelser, som ble foretaget i denne henseende, er bleetjusteret i nedadgaende retning siden maj 1976, som under hele det 0konomiske opsing er den maned, hor irksomhedernes urderinger ar mest optimistiske. de industrier, der fremstiller forbrugsgoder, har denne nedjustering af sk0nnene reret' mest udprreget. Det synes i 0rigt, som om den udfladning af eftersp0rgslen, som irksomhedslederne har giet udtryk for, hoedsagelig er begrrenset til den interne 0konomi, horimod den udenlandske eftersp0rgsel stort set er forbleet konstant. besarelserne i forbindelse med unders0gelsen lregges der ligeledes regt pa, at der har reret en ret kraftig udbygning af frerdigarelagrene, isrer for sa idt angar forbrugsgoder. Der er saledes flere irksomhedsledere nu end i noember, som mener, at deres lagre ligger oer det normale. Produktionsudsigterne er stort set urendrede, men de iser undertiden, at tilliden til en is grad har reret faldende. Endelig synes de opagaende prisberegelser at forstrerkes: inden for forbrugsaresektoren og inden for inesteringsgodesektoren forenter irksomhedslederne nu en hastigere stigningstakt i salgspriserne. Disse synspunkter, som irksomhedslederne har giet udtryk for, antager imidlertid forskellig karakter, alt efter hilket land det drejer sig om. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland er disse synspunkter i oerensstemmelse med det oenfor beskrene generelle billede, horimod sarene i Frankrig isrer iser et ophar i faldet i den interne eftersp0rgsel. rland er forudsigelserne med hensyn til produktionen trods en is afdrempning stadig forholdsis optimistiske. talien synes ordrebeholdningerne af arige forbrugsgoder at ligge pa et meget lat nieau, og produktionsudsigterne er derfor lidet gunstige. Nederlandene er urderingerne og forudsigelserne som helhed bleei mindre pessimistiske, isrer takket rere en fremgang inden for mellemproduktsektoren. Belgien er der inden for forbrugsgodeindustrien flere irksomhedsledere nu end i noember, som er af den mening, at deres frerdigarelagre ligger oer det normale. bade Belgien og Luxembourg har salgspriserne i modsretning til had unders0gelsen iser for de andre medlemsstaters edkommende, snarere tendens mod et fald. Luxembourg er forudsigelserne med hensyn til produktionen desuden bleet betydeligt mere optimistiske. Endelig har produktionsudiklingen i Det forenede Kongerige tilsyneladende fortsat reret ret stabil, og irksomhedslederne forenter en generel stigning i salgspriserne. Sruxelles, den 31. december 1976.

5 Al NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 1970 = ndustry as a whole Unadjusted indices 140 Den samlede industri lkke sresonkorrigerede tal Capital goods Adjusted indices Kapitalgoder Sresonkorrigerede tal CEEGEC CEEGEC Consumer goods Adjusted indices Forbrugsgoder Sresonkorrigerede tal CEEGEC Adjusted indices CEEGEC Sresonkorrigerede tal ntermediate goods Adjusted indices Halfabrikata Sresonkorrigerede tal CEEGEC F M A M A 0 N D D Although in October the pattern of industrial production aried een more than before, both frpm country to country and from industry to industry, the oerall expansion was maintained. The SOEC seasonallyadjusted index (excluding building and contruction) was only a little short of the record 1974 figure. ndeed, a new record was in fact set in the consumer goods sector, the demand for motor ehicles and other durables, though a little slacker, haing remained ery brisk. The oerall Community result for October could not hae been obtained, howeer, without the special performances achieed in the Federal Republic of Germany and in Belgium. On the other hand, industrial production showed no substantial change on the preceding month in the Netherlands or in the United Kingdom, and in France, taly and Luxembourg it actually declined. The weakness of inestment demand continued to inhibit actiity. Moreoer, because users were managing their stocks more prudently, the inflow of orders for intermediate goods was still sluggish, particularly in the steel industry, where orders in hand are well short of a normal leel. Trods en st0rre differentiering sa el pa det geografiske plan som pa sektorplan ble industriproduktionen i Frellesskabet fortsat udidet i oktober. Det statistiske Kontors sresonkorrigerede indeks (bortset fra bygge og anlregssektoren) naede nresten op pa det rekordnieau, der registreredes i Det naede endog oer dette nieau inden for forbrugsgodesektoren, hor der stadig trods en is afdrempning er en meget stor eftersp0rgsel efter automobiler og andre arige forbrugsgoder. Dette resultat for oktober maned for Frellesskabet som helhed kunne imidlertid kun opnas takket rere de opnaede resultater i Forbundsrepu blikken Tyskland og i Belgien. Derimod forble industriproduktionen i Nederlandene og i Det forenede Kongerige pa foregaende maneds nieau, og udiste endog tilbagegang i Frankrig, talien og Luxembourg. Den sage inesteringseftersp0rgsel har fortsat haft en mrerkbart afdrempende indirkning pa produktionen. srer pa grund af en mere forsigtig foraltning af lagrene hos producenterne er udiklingen i ordretilgangen imidlertid fortsat lidet gunstig inden for sektoren for mellemprodukter og isrer inden for jern og stalindustrien, hor ordrebeholdningen ligger pa et yderst lat nieau.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjusted indices Semi Log. scale = Sresonkorrigerede tal Semilog. skala Danmark ltalia...;._ Belgique Belgie Luxembourg United Kingdom :,L 1 V'... r...,.;;... 'L':... 5G ' ' V" \ """"...,., i \ J' \ ;' \ \ ',, \ \ \ (' \ ' ' 160 Adjusted indices SemiLog. scale Sresonkorrigerede tal Semilog skala B R Deutschland reland France Nederland V ',, _;... _... z... _,....L'......,,..._ l,...oo.1...= 1,... ' 1., i,... _.,e f ".7'..., 7.,.... ) l '. J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAM J JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASOND

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT (thousands) ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (i tusinde) Semi Log. scale 1500 r J! ,...,_. Semilog skala l! 19to ll..o;;;;;,;: " _, 1,... _,, , ' '_... "" _...', 20+ Dan mark BR Deutschland 15 ce reland Nederland Belgique Belgie 10nitKigdm J 11 J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAM J JASON OJ FMAMJ J ASOND The employment situation deteriorated a little during the autumn. t is true that in most of the Member States the seasonal expansion in the number of wholly unemployed was no greater than usual So, in the Community taken as a whole, the Noember unemployment rate (seasonallyadjusted number of persons wholly unemployed as a proportion of the labour force) remained at the leel recorded in the preious two months, i_e. 4.6 %, which was also the rate recorded in Noember Howeer, increased difficulties in seeral industries led to an increase in shorttime working. This deelopment seems to hae been most seere in those industries particularly those producing intermediate goods exposed to the keenest international competition_ During the autumn, the seasonallyadjusted number of acancies dropped particularly sharply in France and in Denmark, and remained relatiely low in the other Member States. n the country in which the situation is the least unfaourable, the Federal Republic of Germany, the acancy figure was only about a quarter of the number of unemployed. Beskreftigelsessituationen ble en smule forrerret i l0bet af eftenhet. Ganske ist ar den sresonbetingede stigning i arbejdsl0sheden i de fleste medlemsstater ikke st0rre end normalt. Frellesskabet som helhed holdt arbejdsl0shedsprocenten (sresonkorrigeret an tal af fuldtidsarbejdsl0se i forhold til den erheraktie befolkning) sig i noemer oeralt pa det nieau, der hade reret greldende i de to foregaende maneder, ds. 4,6 %, hilket i 0rigt ogsa sarer til den procent, der registreredes i noember midlertid medf0rte de stigende anskeligheder pa flere aktiitetsomrader en stigning i antallet af folk pa fordeling. Denne udikling synes i ganske srerlig grad at ram me de sektorer isrer sektoren for mellemprodukter hor den internationale konkurrence er hardest. 0rigt udiste antallet af ubesatte ledige stillinger, korrigeret for sresonbetingede faktorer, et srerlig markant fald i Frankrig og Danmark, medens tallet fortsat ar forholdsis fat ide andre medlemsstater. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland,.hor situationen er rnindst ugunstig, udgjorde antallet af ledige Stillinger kun ca. en fjerdedel af de arbejdsl0se.

8 CONSUMER PRCES B R Deutschland France lt lia Belgi<Je Belgie Luxembourg """ 1970 = lou FORBRUGERPRSER V' ;:;:;,..,... "" 1',..., ,..,..., 1 ",;::,?,,..;,.,. i.' 7 _.,.,, ' ' reland. _ CE EG EC Oanmaric. Nederland United Kingdom :.j ; '... ""... _.,1...,....J b,..,... 1'.,...,...,.,..., ,, Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % A l 1 J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D A 0 N The upward moement in consumer prices spurted in the period following the summer break in the Community and remained igorous in Noember. Thanks, howeer, to price policies implemented, it was no longer actually gathering momentum. For example, in taly and the United Kingdom, the rise in the cost of liing, while still rapid, slowed down a little in Noember, the increases in controlled prices haing been smaller. n France, although petroleum products were appreciably dearer, the price freeze enabled the authorities to curtail the upward trend of consumer prices. A similar free!le has been introduced in Denmark for the period from December to March, certain exceptions being allowed, howeer, for items the prices of which are heaily dependent on those of imported raw materials. Despite the remarkable performance achieed in the Federal Republic of Germany where price leels hae increased only ery little since June the upward consumer price moement in the Community taken as a whole was running at an annual rate of about % in Noember, compared with some 5 % in October. This rate is much higher than that seen in the Community's main trading competitors as a group, and particularly in the United States ( % in OctoberNoember). Efter at rere bleet kraftigt fortstrerket siden sommeren 1976 a forbrugerprisstigningerne i Frellesskabet fortsat pa et h0jt nieau i noember. Stigningerne ble dog afdrempet, isrer som f0lge af irkningerne af den irerksatte prispolitik. Saledes ble stigningen i leeomkostningerne i talien og Det forenede Kongerige, amend de stadig ar meget kraftige, modereret en anelse i noember, idet stigningerne for regulerede priser ar af mindre omfang. Frankrig gjorde prisstoppet trods en mrerkbar fordyrelse af olieprodukter det muligt af afdrempe stigningen i forbrugerpriserne. Ligeledes i Danmark besluttede regeringen at indf0re prisstop i perioden l. december til 1. marts, idet der dog ble fastsat isse undtagelser for produkter, his priser i h0j grad pairkes afpriserne pa importerede raarer. Trods de bemrerkelsesrerdige resultater, der ble opnaet i Forbundsrepublikken Tyksland hor prisnieauet kun er steget meget sagt siden juni 976 ii forbrugerprisstigningerne i hele Frellesskabet hae naet en arlig stigningstakt pa omkring % i noember mod ca. 15 % i oktober. Denne stigningstakt er fortsat h0jere end den, der er registreret i aile de igtigste konkurrerende ande isrer i De forenede Stater ( + 3, 7 % i oktobernoember).

9 A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur_ l T Dan mark B R Deutschland Nederland UEBL " ' 1\ \ :? t;,._ j '\ t.., ,.., _ =...,., = """ "" ' ; c:.. 1 A \, CE EG EC France reland ltalia United Kingdom 2000 """"' " "' " V j 'l '\. \ "' \'..._. " '\.,, \. '..., ' ' h... u < ' '....,.,. u '... \ "" '. " l J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N OJ F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N D ' The Community's trade deficit probably widened somewhat further during the autumn. Both imports and exports hae generally lacked igour, although they may hae risen a little faster than during the depressed summer months. There has, howeer, been a tendency in seeral countries for oil imports to rise sharply in order that stocks might be built up in adance of the decision on the price of oil by the OPEC goernments in December. n the Federal Republic of Germany, imports and exports were almost unchanged in Noember from the preious month and so the trade surplus remained stable. n the United Kingdom a strong rise in the alue of imports, due both to an increase in the olume of oil imports and a sharp rise in general import price. led to a renewed worsening of the trade deficit in Noember. n France, in the same month, the trade deficit narrowed a little, after seeral months of ery marked deterioration. mports and exports appear to hae resumed their growth in taly in recent months, following weakness in the late spring and early summer; the tali an trade deficit widened again in October. Whereas in most of the other Community countries the trade deficits hae shown no clear tendency of late, in the BelgoLuxembourg Economic Union a stronger export performance in September and October enabled the trade balance to return to surplus. Handelsbalanceunderskuddet i Frellesskabet ble antagelig yderligere en smule fomget i l0bet af efterret. Generelt har b de importen og eksporten ist en igende tendens, sel om stigningen er bleet lidt kraftigere end under lakonjunkturen sidste sommer. midlertid kunne man i flere ande konstatere en tendens til kraftigt opsing i olieimporten med henblik p en opbygning af lagrene, f0r OPEClandene i december fastsretter prisstigningen. Forbundsrepublikken Tysklan d hor importen og eksporten nresten ikke rendrede sig i noember i forhold til foregende m ned, er handelsbalanceoerskuddet sledes forbleet urendret. Det forenede Kongerige medf0rte en kraftig stigning i importrerdien, som dels skyldtes en mrengdemressig stigning i k0b af olieprodukter og dels den betydelige stigning i det generelle importprisnieau, pny i noember en fomgelse af handelsunderskuddet. Frankrig indtraf der i den samme periode en sag bedring af handelsbalanceunderskuddet, efter flere mneder med meget kraftig forringelse. talien synes der i l0bet af de sidste mneder at rere indtruffet et opsing i importen og eksporten, efter den moderate udikling, der ar kendetegnende sidst p foraret og i begyndelsen af sommeren. oktober oksede det italienske handelsbalancej..lnderskud pny. Medens handelsbalanceunderskuddene i de andre Frellesskabslande generelt ikke har udist en he! klar tendens, har udiklingen i den samlede eksport i september og oktober i Den belgiskluxembourgske 0konomiske Union gjort det muligt igen at opn oerskud p handelsbalancen.

10 1... OUTPUT N THE METAL PRODUCTS NDUSTRES PRODUKTON METALNDUSTR Dl 1970 = ! _,_ Danmark 160 'France BelgiqueBelgie Luxembourg United Kingdom 140 f A,..,. r...,....,_,.,.,. ""'""", _ '..,;'.... :::::::......, r 90 :::::;;oo;;;: ""'"""' " D;tscl;nd reland = ltalia 160 Nederland , """', '.. '",, _.,..... =: r. ""... ::,,. "' r,., f "" ' """ ""' L J FMAMJ JASONOJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONOJ FMAMJ J ASOND After marking time at a high leel during the summer months, actiity in the metal products industries picked up in September and continued to expand in October. This is largely due to the performance of the motor ehicles industry, the growth of which was appreciable during the summer months, particularly in Belgium and in the Federal Republic of Germany. The latest returns show, howeer, that while expansion is apparently continuing in this industry, the rate of expansion is tending to decline. The manufacturers of other durable consumer goods, particularly hifi equipment and colour teleision sets, hae also stepped up their output. The subsequent loss of momentum which must now be expected in this particular field, and, in general, the weakness of inestment, whether in stocks or in fixed assets, are bound to inhibit actiity in the metal products industries in coming months. Efter at rere stabiliseret p et h0jt nieau i l0bet af sommeren indtrdte der igen en opgang i aktiiteten inden for metalindustrien i l0bet af september, og denne udikling er fortsat i oktober. Dette opsing skyldes i id udstrrekning automobilpro _ duktionen, his rekst ar betydelig i efterrsmnederne, i ganske srerlig grad i Belgien og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. De seneste statistikker iser imidlertid, at sel om det ser ud til, at ekspansionen ii fortsrette inden for denne sektor, er der ikke desto mindre en tendens til at stigningstakten blier mere moderat. 0rigt har producenterne af andre arige forbrugsgoder, isrer hifi anlreg og faretv, 0get deres produktion mrerkbart i den sidste tid. Den opremsning, som senere m forentes inden for dette srerlige omrde, samt p generelt plan den igende inesteringstilb0jelighed, bde for s idt angr lagre som faste anlregsaktier. ii uregerligt ide nreste mander fa en afdrempende irkning pa aktiiteten i metalindustrien.

11 02 DWELLNGS AUTHORZED (thousands) BOLGER HVORTL DER ER GVET BYGGETLLADELSER (i tusind) ,0 2,0 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 19? ,.. j.., r\. " ;. l.v "' ' t V,., ' 'V'... "" \ Danmark. ij V BR Deutschland France reland ltalia. Nederland \, Belgique Belgie Luxemoourg t ' V \ "'J ""' \ \ f. '{\ ) \,... A,.., \ ' \ ' \ 1 1\ \ '' \ \1 ' \ \J ' \ \1 \ \ 1' r" X y rr f,.,......, \ ll \j ' \;' "'... \ j'l \..., 1. ' \ ;\ ' i ',!.;,,,..., 1.,..... ""..., " \ la 'J ' r., 1 n' \' r,. \ y \,,, t', 'V. \ l ",.'... j. ', _,..,"',...,... "'... "7 ' ", 1\ \ '... '., \. la ""'' \ _r... \..k.., ' ',! r. '. 1 1 \1 1 J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND Building and construction actiity was already losing momentum but the number of building authorizations has recently fallen once again, except in the Netherlands. n France, Denmark and Luxembourg, the change in the situation is only slight, but an appreciable decline has been obsered in the Federal Republic of Germany. n the United Kingdom, the number of residential building starts has dropped. Generally, with regard to industrial and commercial building, actiity is tending to slow down, managements being little inclined to add to capacity at the present time. Roadbuilding and similar work is also ery slack, haing suffered, in particular, from economy measures adopted in irtually all the Member States. Sel om aktiiteten inden for bygge og anlregssektoren allerede ar igende har antallet afbyggetilladelser i den seneste tid udist et nyt fald, undtagen i NederJandene. Frankrig, Danmark og Luxembourger der nreppe tale om nogen rendring i situationen i denne henseende, men der har kunnet registreres et mrerkbart fald i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Det forenede Kongerige er antallet af pabegyndte boliger faldet. Generelt er der en tendens til en opbremsning i aktiiteten inden for erhersbyggeriet som f0lge af irksomhedernes igende tilb0jelighed til at foretage udidelsesinesteringer. Aktiiteten er ligeledes meget begrrenset for sa idt angar offentlige anlregsarbejder, som i ganske srerlig grad rammes af de 0konomiske foranstaltninger, der er gennemf0rt i nresten samtlige medlemsstater.

12 TAX REVENUE SKATTENDT A:GTER 03 B R Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie Luxembourg United Kingdom J J Mrd DM ll V ll V '..._ Mio Mrd Lit Mio Fl i ', 1976,,,,.. ', ; ',.., _ ll V ll V ll V 80r Mio FB Mio Flbg Mio _. 0 0 ll V ll V ll V Except in the Benelux countries, tax reenue in the Member States for the current financial year is so far running ahead of the original forecasts. ndeed, in taly it was 40 % up, between June and September, on the amount for the same period of The expansion.of public expenditure is also a good deal slower in the same countries, except taly. The contribution to economic actiity made by the budget has therefore generall y been weaker. Howeer, for 1976 a a whole, the budget deficits of taly, the Netherlands and Belgium will probably turn out heaier than for the preceding year. Selectie budgetary policy measures recently implemented ary widely from country to country in the Community. Among moes designed to proide support in specific areas of the economy, those of particular note are certain tax incenties for inestment introduced in the Netherlands last October and in Belgium in December and a relatiely mode t employment deelopment programme implemented in Noember in the Federal Republic of Germany. n France, a reduction in certain alue tax rates under the Barre plan entered into force on 1 January On the other hand, the British Goernment announced in December an increase in certain taxes on consumption and an appreciable reduction in public expenditure for the next two years. Med undtagelse af Beneluxlandene har skatteindtregterne i medlemslandene for indererende finansar indtil nu reret h0jere end de oprindelige sk0n. talien a de endog i perioden juniseptember 40 % oer bel0bet i den tilsarende periode i Til gengreld ble stigningen i udgifterne standset i betydeligt omfang i de samme ande undtagen i talien. De impulser, der er udgaet fra de offentlige budgetter, er derfor i almindelighed bleet srekket. midlertid ii det gennemsnitlige budgetunderskud for aret 1976 i talien, Nederlandene og Belgien sikkert ise sig at. rere h0jere end det foregaende ar. De selektie budgetpolitiske foranstaltninger, som for nylig er bleet gennemf0rt i forskellige ande i Frellesskabet, udiser et meget forskelligartet billede. Blandt de foranstaltninger, his formal er pa afg0rende punkter at styrke konjwlkturerne, kan isrer fremhrees isse inesteringsfremmende skattelettelser, som ble indf0rt i Nederlandene i oktober og i Belgien i december, samt et beskreftigelsesprogram af forholdsis beskedent omfang, som ble f0rt ud i liet i noember i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland.l Frankrig tradte en nedsrettelse edtaget som led i Barieplanen af isse momssatser i kraft den 1. januar Derimod bekendtgjorde den britiske regering i december en stigning i isse forbrugs.afgifter samt en mrerkbar nedskrering af de offentlige udgifter for de to f0lgende finansar.

13 04 SHARE PRCES AKTEKURSER 1970 = J \.,.,. " y l _ ""... r\ r\.... rfs< \ = " \ \ ""'"" ' "... ' \\: y CE EG EC BR Deutschland 50 ltalia Nederland United Kingdom \ ' '.. ', "' V\ 1\ \..." J """"" \ 40,.,, 80 1 Danmark France reland Belgique Belgie 70 1 Luxembourg J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M.J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 On most of the Community stock exchanges. equity prices touched the lowest point for the year either in October or in Noember ; in taly, the index touched its lowest point for the last eighteen years. n recent weeks, howeer, most markets hae staged a modest recoery. This is partly technical, but is also due to good performances on the United States, Japanese and Swiss stock exchanges and to the effects of the monetary policies pursued by the Member States, a number of which hae relaxed a little the markedly restrictie positions adopted in certain cases during the monetary disturbances last autumn. Equity prices could well also hae been influenced by the general business climate, which, after a period of growing concern during the autumn, improed a little towards the end of the year. The recoery was strongest (about 25 % on aerage from October to December) on the London stock exchange, especially when it became eident that the negotiations on international financial aid to the United Kingdom were likely to succeed. The announcement in middecember of the economy measures expected from the British goernment also helped to boost the market. Pa de fleste af b0rserne i Frellesskabet naede aktiekursindekset i oktober og noember arets laeste nieau ; i talien ar denne kurstilbagegang endog den mest markante i atten ar. l0bet af de sidste uger er der dog generelt indledt en is hredet tendens. Det skyldes til dels tekniske faktorer, men ogsa kursfastheden pa de amerikanske, japanske og schweiziske b0rser samt irkningerne af medlemsstaternes pengepolitik. nogle tilfrelde hade denne politik faet en langt mere restrikti udformning under alutauroen i efteraret 1976, men den ble senere lempet i et ist omfang i en rrekke medlemsstater. Kurstendenserne kan eentuelt ydermere hae reret under indflydel e af den generelle stemning, som efter at hae afspejlet den stigende usikkerhed, som herskede i efteraret, er bleet en smule bedre henimod slutningen af aret. Det mest markante opsing opleede man pa b0rsen i London (omkring 25 % i gennemsnit fra oktober til december), i ganske srerlig grad fra det 0jeblik, hor det iste sig, at forhandlingerne om international finansiel bistand til Det forenede Kongerige ille fa et gunstigt udfald. At den britiske regering som entet i midten af december bekendtgjorde 0konomiske foranstaltninger, bidrog ligeledes til fortsatte kursstigninger.

14 LONGTERM NTEREST RATES LANGFRSTEDE RENTESATSER 05 % 18 16, Danmark B R Deutschland lrlande United Kingdom 0 Vl 7 ""'., J A ( '( J ,.. '\ \ \ \ J_ j fa \ A _,..,,.. ' j '" \_) 1,,..\ 7 f...r ""'. \ \(......,l 1' ' '.J..., '" France ltalia Nederland BelgiqueBelgie '...,=. J..'"\. l.. V\ K::::..._j... L._ rj, V' d 1 r.,..,., r"..3llo..,..., 6 J FMAMJ JASONOJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJJASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND During the autumn months, trends in longterm interest rates in the Community aried widely from one country to another, but the main tendency was for rates to decline. n the Netherlands and in the Federal Republic of Germany, they fell in December by about 1.5 and 1 percentage point respectiely below the leels preailing in the summer months. n the United Kingdom, where they were still climbing during the autumn, longterm rates seem to hae passed, in Noember, the peak of the upward moement which had begun last spring; at the same time, public authorities borrowed particularly large amounts. Record interest rates were charged on the Danish capital market in the autumn, but the situation has since become rather easier. nterest rates hae risen only slightly in France and in Belgium:. as at the end of Noember. the National Bank of Belgium discontinued the requirement for banks to inest a proportion of new deposits in Goernment tock. n taly. the demand for public stock is being indirectly stimulated by the quantitatie restriction of bank credit. a measure which acts as an inducement to the banks to purchase securities. efterarsmcinederne ar udiklingen ide Jangfristede rentesatser i Frellesskabet meget forskellig fra land til land. Som helhed er der en altoerejende tendens til en moderat udikling. Nederlandene og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland er rentesatserne faldet med henholdsis ca. 1,5 og 1 point i december i forhold til rentenieauet i sommermcinederne. Det forenede Kongerige synes rentesatserne, efter endnu en mrerkbar stigning i l0bet af eftediret, i noember at hae passeret h0jdepunktet for den stigning, som satte ind i forciret 1976 ; i samme periode ble der udbudt et ret omfattende antal offentlige lcin. Det danske kapitalmarked, hor der ble opnciet rekordrentesatser i efterciret, har i den seneste tid registreret et mindre fald. Rentestigningerne har reret sage i Frankrig og Belgien : med irkning fra slutningen af noember har den belgiske national bank i 0rigt afskaffet bankernes forpligtelse til at placere en del af deres nye indian i statspapirer. talien er eftersp0rgselen efter offentlige papirer bleet stimuleret indirekte ed en kantitati begrrensning af bankkreditten, en foranstaltning som ansporer bankerne til at erhere rerdipapirer.

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FJELLESSKABET %of answers %at sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning CE EG EC B R Deutschland France 60 ltalia reland Nederl and Belgique Belgie %of answers %at sar Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af frerdigarelagre + 50 JFMAMJJASONDJ FMAMJJ ASONDJFMAMJJASONDJ FMAMJJ ASOND 1 ) Excluding construction, food, be.erages and tobacco. 1 ) Eksklusie bygge og anlagsirksomhed, narings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger %of answers % at sar 30 reland CE EG EC BR Deutschland France ta a Nederland Graphs and show businessmen's iews of their total orderhooks and their stocks of finished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages of the aif.ference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( + ) and the percentage of those who find them "below normal" (). Graph D shows threemonth moing aerages of the difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( +) and those who expected it to be down (). The table below shows businessmen 's assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( + ) being aboe normal, ( = ) being normal, ( ) being below normal. t also shows whether, they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( + ), no change ( = ) or decrease () in their production and in their selling prices. Di rammerne og gengier tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit af skelsardien mellem irksomhedsledernes sar»storre«( + ) og»mindre«() edrerende ordrebestand og fardigarelagre. Diagram iser ligeledes i form af tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit forskelsardien (procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»foregelse«( + ) eller en»formindskelse«() af produktionen. Nedenstdende tabel gengier for de seneste tre mdneder irksomhedsledernes bedemmelse af, om de samlede ordre beholdninger, udlandsordrer og fardigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eller forholdsis smd (). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( + ), nogenlunde uandrede ( =) eller aftagende () produktion og salgspriser i de felgende tre eller fire mdneder anfort. BR France reland Deutschland s 0 N s 0 N s 0 N ltalia ederland Belgique Luxem United EC Belgie bourg Kingdom EF s 0 N s 0 N s 0 N s 0 N s 0 N s 0 N Total orderbooks Den samlede ordre beholdning = Export orderbooks Den udenlandske ordrebeholdning = Stocks of finished goods Frerdigarelagre = Expectations : production Produktionsforentningerne = Expect!! lions: selling prices Salgsprisforentninger =

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne A ndustrial production: indices of the S.O.E.C., excluding construction. France: cure for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Community: estimates. reland: quarierly index. For the seasonallyadjusted indices, three month moing aerages. A ndustriproduktion: index udarbejdet af Det statistiske kontor fm De europteiske Ftellesskaber ( excl. bygge og anltegsirksomhed). Frankrig: kurer kan for de seneste mdneder tere deis baseret pd skem. Stesonkorrigerede index fremtrteder som tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Ftellesskabet: skon. rland: kartalsindex. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. France: number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A 2 Antal arbejdslose: Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit af stesonkorrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kontor for De europteiske Ftellesskaber. Frankrig: antal arbejdssogende. taien: kuren angier antal personer, registreret pd arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke til antal arbejdslose. Luxembourg: ubetydeig arbejdsloshed. Belgien: fuldtids ledige personer, som modtager arbefdsloshedsunderstottelse. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europteiske Ftellesskaber. A4 Balanceoftrade: ncluding intracommunity trade. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Exports fob, imports elf; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A 4 Handelsbalance: 1nklusie handel indenfor Ftellesskabet. Ftellesskabet: kun handel med ikke medlemslande. Beregnet pd grundlag af tal for import og eksport stesonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kontor for De europteiske Ftellesskaber. Tre mdneders gidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.if., eksklusie monettert guld. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder tere deis baseret pd skon. Begien og Luxembourg: fales kure. D 1 Output in the metal products industries: Seasonally adjusted indices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities; Three month moing aerages. Comparable :fwures are not aailable for Denmark and reland. D 1 Produktion i metalindustri: Sasonkorrigeret indeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Falesskaber; tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. For rland og Danmark foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. D 2 Dwellings authorised: Number of dwellings for which permits hae been issued. Comparable figures are not aailable for the United Kingdom. Source: SOEC. D 2 Boliger bortil der er giet byggetilladelser: Antal udstedte byggetiladelser til boligbyggeri. For Det forenede Kongerige foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Department of Local Goernment. D 3 Tax reenue: Goernment tax reenue. Monthly aerages. Germany: Federal and Liinder taxes. Source: SOEC, reland: Central Statistics Office, Denmark: Danmarks.Statistik. D 3 Skatteindt aegter: Statens skatteindtregter m!medsgennemsnit Tyskland: inklusie skatteindtregter i delstaterne. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Central Statics Office, Danmark: Danmarks Statistik. D4 Share prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. D4 Aktiekurser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Falesskaber. D 5 Longterm interest rates: Yield on fixedinterestbearing securities. Belgium: goernment securities maturing in oer 5 years issued after 1 December France: interest yield on securities in the priate sector; 2nd category loans. Netherlands: aerage yield of the three most recent goernment loans. Germany: all stock exchange securities quoted. taly: yield.on bonds. United Kingdom, reland and Denmark: Goernment Bond Yield. Source: SOEC. D 5 Langfristede rentesatser: Afkast af ardipapirer med fast nomine rente. Begien: Statsardipapirer med mere end 5 drs lobetid udstedt efter 1. december Frankrig: renteajkast af ardipapirer i den priate sektor; 2. prioritets an. Nederlandene: gennemsnitsrente af de 3 seneste statsldn. Tyskland aile borsnoterede ardipapirer. talien: afkast af obigationer. Det forenede Kongerige, rland og Danmark: Afkast af statsobligationer. Kilde: SKEF. 1 Eur = (NoemberNo. 1976) 3,15675.DM 6,6000 Ffr 3,3551 Fl Lit 48,6572 FbFlx 0, ,8941