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1 23. februar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Efter skuffelsen i euroområdets PMI-indikator i går et det bestemt værd at holde øje med dagens tyske Ifo erhvervstillidsindikator. Vi venter endnu et lille fald i forventningsindekset i februar, efter fald i både december og januar. Dermed peger IFO ikke længere på en fremgang i den samlede økonomiske vækst i begyndelsen af i år (se figur). Givet den store nervøsitet på de finansielle markeder og de udbredte bekymringer for udsigterne for verdensøkonomien, er det dog også acceptabelt, hvis økonomien blot formår at fastholde væksten i årets første kvartal og undgår et vækstfald. Den første opgørelse af det samlede tyske nationalregnskab for 4. kvartal offentliggøres også i dag. Det foreløbige estimat viste en vækst i BNP på 0,3% q/q i 4. kvartal, uændret fra 3. kvartal. Der blev ikke offentliggjort underkomponenter i den foreløbige opgørelse, men statistikbureauet beskrev, at investeringerne og især bygge- og anlægsinvesteringerne var steget over perioden. Samtidig blev det fremhævet, at både privatforbruget og det offentlige forbrug var steget, sidstnævnte måske på grund af håndteringen af flygtningekrisen. Dagens tal giver os svar på, præcist hvor meget forbrug og investeringer voksede, og dermed om de tyske husholdninger holder dampen oppe. Der er naturligvis meget fokus på den amerikanske forbruger for øjeblikket, idet alt peger på, at privatforbruget er den drivkraft, der skal holde væksten i gang i USA. Dagens tal for forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board for februar bliver derfor meget interessant at følge. Ikke mindst fordi vi her kan få syn for, om den meget turbulente begyndelse på året på de finansielle markeder har haft en negativ afsmitning og dermed en risiko for, at nedgangen på aktiemarkederne også kan have en afsmittende effekt på realøkonomien. Der er dog også fortsat positive effekter fra de lave energipriser, en fortsat robust udvikling på arbejdsmarkedet samt et boligmarked, der fortsat holder dampen oppe. Om det er nok til at opveje de negative formueeffekter fra de faldende aktiemarkeder er dog lidt usikkert. Vi har allerede modtaget en foreløbig opgørelse fra University of Michigan, som viste et fald i tilliden, og vi venter på den baggrund også, at Conference Boards opgørelse vil have pilen nedad i februar. Interessant bliver det også at følge, om forbrugerne ser øgede svagheder på arbejdsmarkedet, afspejlet i vurderingen af hvor nemt eller svært det er at få arbejde. Denne indikator har udviklet sig mere fladt de seneste måneder. Salget af eksisterende boliger har svinget kraftigt de seneste måneder som følge af ny regulering, der skubbede salget fra november ind i december. Ser vi på antallet af verserende bolighandler så har der imidlertid været en skuffende udvikling siden sommerferien, som tyder på, at noget af dampen er gået af aktiviteten på boligmarkedet. På den baggrund venter vi, at salget af eksisterende huse vil være faldet i januar, men fortsat ligge på et relativt stærkt niveau. Tyskland: Ifo falder nok yderligere tilbage USA: Rammer aktiefald forbrugertilliden? Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Den gode stemning på aktiemarkederne anspores endnu en gang af stigende råvarepriser, herunder især på olie. JPY svækkes, og det samme gør GBP på øget Brexitfrygt. Renterne i Europa falder tilbage endnu en dag. Til morgen falder Asien-børserne tilbage sammen med olieprisen efter at IEA ser begrænset opside på kort sigt. Det sker efter at PBoC sænker referenceraten mere end ventet med det meste i seks uger, samt efter at de første kinesiske februar-indikatorer viser sig fra den svage side. Kina: Minxin s fremstillingsindeks faldt til 37,5 i februar fra 41,8 i januar, mens det tilsvarende serviceindeks faldt til 37,5 fra 43,0. Tallene kan dog være påvirket af sæsonmæssige forhold, men viser der er rum for yderligere stimulans udtalte China Academy of New Supply-side Economics, der offentliggør tallene. Derudover faldt Market News erhvervstillidsindeks til 49,9 i februar fra forrige 52,3. Indekset er baseret på Kina-selskaber noteret på børserne i Shanghai og Shenzen. Endelig viste Baidu-indekset at online-interessen i små og mellemstore virksomheder faldt i februar og signalerede let nedtrykte betingelser. I en officiel udtalelse sagde regeringen dog, at der ikke er tale om en hård landing, og at afmatningen i 2015 ikke var så slem som nogle vil gøre den til. USA: Markits PMI for fremstillingssektoren faldt fra 52,4 i januar til 51,0 i februar, det laveste i lige over tre år. Der var ventet en lille stigning. Stort set alle underkomponenter forværredes. Markits PMI skal ikke forveksles med den tættere fulgte ISM for fremstillingssektoren, som er faldet løbende fra sidste sommer og frem til december inden en lille stigning i januar til 48,2. Euroområdet: Den sammensatte PMI-indikator (composite) for euroområdet faldt noget mere end ventet til 52,7 i februar fra 53,6 i januar. Det var den laveste værdi i lidt over et år. PMI trækkes nok ned af de tiltagende bekymringer for både euroområdets økonomi og verdensøkonomien. Både tysk og fransk sammensat PMI faldt, så sidstnævnte røg under 50. Det er især Tysklands eksportdrevne industrisektor, som nu rammes af opbremsningen i den globale efterspørgsel. Således faldt tysk fremstillings-pmi markant til kun 50,2, mens service-pmi gik frem. I Frankrig steg fremstillings-pmi op på den rigtige side af 50. Tallene lægger yderligere pres på ECB for at levere lempelser som lovet på mødet næste måned. Danmark: Det danske detailsalg steg med 0,5% m/m i januar, og rettede sig dermed pænt fra decembers svage tal. En væsentlig årsag til det svage julesalg i butikkerne var tøjsalget, der har det med at svinge meget. Som vi havde ventet kom tøjsalget stærk igen i januar, måske fordi salget af vintertøj først kom i gang i januar efter en varm december. Tyskland og Frankrig enige om svagt industri-pmi For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. februar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (+2,30% / indeks 984,80) sluttede ugens første handelsdag i positivt terræn. Dermed fortsatte den seneste uges positive tendens. Samme tendens gjorde sig gældende over hele Europa. Den positive stemning på de europæiske børser var især hjulpet af stigende oliepriser. Disse bidrog til, at især mine- og råvarerelaterede aktier udviklede sig særligt gunstigt. Det var relativt småt med selskabsspecifikke nyheder fra de danske selskaber. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet A.P. Møller- Mærsk (+3,77% / kurs 8530,00) som nød godt af de stigende oliepriser. Genmab (+2,88% / kurs 785,50) steg for sjette dag i træk. Aktiens positive udvikling på det seneste kan i høj grad tilskrives en kombination af at aktien faldt meget kraftigt i starten af året og at selskabet i sidste uge rapporterede 4. kvartalsregnskab, som viste at selskabets lægemiddel Darzalez, mod knoglemarvskræft havde fået en stærk salgsmæssig start på markedet. Det har pustet liv i forhåbningerne om, at lægemidlet i de kommende år kan opnå en årlig indtjening i milliardklassen. Renter I Europa faldt statsrenterne på trods af stigende oliepriser og god stemning på aktiemarkederne. Det hentede sandsynligvis inspiration fra en svagere end ventet PMI-opørelse for august i euroområdet, måske kombineret med en vis bekymring om stigende Brexitrisiko efter at Londons konservative borgmester Johnson tilsluttede sig ud -kampagnen frem mod afstemningen den 23. juni. USA bød ind med svagt stigende renter, hvilket måske fandt støtte i udviklingen på aktiemarkederne kombineret med en pæn opgørelse af Chicago National Activity Index, som opvejede en lidt skuffende PMI-måling for fremstillingssektoren. Renter faldt imidlertid tilbage til morgen i forbindelse med svagere stemning på børserne i Asien. Valuta JPY blev svækket i overensstemmelse med en positiv stemning på aktiemarkederne ansporet af stigende oliepriser. Udviklingen vendte dog til morgen, hvor stemningen på børserne forsuredes i Asien, JPY nåede nyt stærkeste niveau mod USD siden Ellers var der mandag især fokus på GBP, som blev svækket markant efter at Londons borgmester Johnson tilsluttede sig ud - kampagnen frem mod EU-afstemningen til juni. Således blev annullerede GBP styrkelsen umiddelbart efter at UK nåede EUreformaftale i fredags. EUR blev svækket mod USD, hvilket nok fandt hjælp fra et skuffende svagt Flash PMI for februar. Derudover bød USA ind med et ganske pænt Chicago aktivitetsindeks. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 Aktuelt Q Q End 2016 USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. februar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Simcorp 4. kvartal Jyske Bank 4. kvartal Solar 4. kvartal Sydbank 4. kvartal Per Aarsleff 4. kvartal Banknordik 4. kvartal NKT Holding 4. kvartal Rockwool 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Feb P :00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.3%/ %/0.0% 0.5%/1.0% :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Feb P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Feb P :00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Feb :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan (r) :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb P :00 EMU ECB's Sabine Lautenschläger Speaks in Stuttgart :00 USA NY Fed's Potter Speaks in New York :00 Tyskland GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F 0.3%/1.3% 0.3%/1.3% 0.3%/1.3% :45 FR Business Confidence Feb :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Feb :30 USA Fed's Fischer Speaks in Houston on Monetary Policy :30 EMU ECB's Danièle Nouy Speaks in London :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City SA (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.8%/5.6% %/5.83% :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Feb :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Feb :00 USA Existing Home Sales Jan 5.40m m :00 Japan Small Business Confidence Feb :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Feb :00 Italien Industrial Sales (MoM/YoY) Dec %/0.8% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 19. feb % :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Feb P :00 USA New Home Sales Jan 520k k :00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Jan :15 USA Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Dallas :00 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks in New York :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Mar :00 Sverige Manufacturing Confidence s.a. Feb :00 Sverige Consumer Confidence Feb :00 EMU M3 Money Supply (YoY) Jan 4.7% % :00 Italien Business Confidence Feb :30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.5%/1.9% 0.5%/1.9% 0.5%/1.9% :00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan F -1.4%/0.4% --/0.2% --/0.2% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Jan F 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% :00 Italien Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Dec %/-0.1% :15 USA Fed's Lockhart to speak at Banking Conference :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 20. feb k :30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Jan P 2.5% % :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Jan P 1.0% % :00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Dec 0.5% % :00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Feb :00 USA Fed's Williams Speaks in New York :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) Jan 0.0% % :05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Feb :30 Kina Property Prices Jan :45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.4%/0.0% %/0.2% :45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.2%/1.3% %/1.3% :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.8%/0.3% %/0.3% :30 Sverige Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.9%/ %/3.4% :00 Norge Unemployment rate Feb 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% :00 EMU Economic Confidence Feb :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.6%/0.2% %/0.5% :30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Jan -$61.200b -- -$61.513b :30 USA GDP Annualized (QoQ) 4Q S 0.5% % :00 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Jan 0.3% % :00 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.1%/1.5% %/1.4% :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F :15 USA Fed's Powell Discusses Fed Communication :30 USA Fed's Brainard Speaks on International Policy Synchronization :30 EMU ECB's Peter Praet Speaks on Panel in New York Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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