Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 23. januar 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Efter en noget stille begyndelse er vi nået til ugens absolut travleste dag på nøgletalsfronten. Fra USA får vi således blandt andet nyt fra boligmarkedet i form af salget af eksisterende boliger i december, samt FHFA s opgørelse over huspriserne i november. Med hensyn til salget af eksisterende boliger er der udsigt til at vi vil se et yderligere lille fald, som indikeret af udviklingen i verserende bolighandler. Dermed ser den negative trend vi har set siden sommerferien, hvor salget i perioden fra august til november er faldet med 9%, ud til at fortsætte. Den aftagende aktivitet ses som en konsekvens af de stigende realkreditrenter hen over sommeren. Det er dog fortsat for tidligt at afblæse opsvinget på boligmarkedet så længe vi ikke ser nye stød til renterne. Salget af nye huse har vist en mere positiv udvikling, og tillidsindikatorerne for boligmarkedet ligger stadig på solide niveauer. Endvidere ser det ikke ud til, at den aftagende aktivitet har haft nogen markant negativ effekt på prisdannelsen, hvilket også blev indikeret af meldingerne fra Fed s seneste Beige Book. Prisstigningstakten er dog kommet lidt ned i forhold til udviklingen før sommerferien, men der ventes fortsat en pæn stigning i huspriserne i omegnen af 0,4% m/m i november, og forventningerne er fortsat, at boligmarkedet vil være en vigtig drivkraft for økonomien i Herudover får vi også tal for udviklingen i antallet af nye ledige, hvor der dog kan være lidt forstyrrelser i tallene som følge af det ekstremt kolde vejr. Vi mener således, at man pt. skal være forsigtig med at tolke alt for meget på tallene. Endelig får vi også Markits foreløbige PMI-opgørelse for fremstillingssektoren. Der ventes en svag stigning fra 54,4 til 55,0 i januar, hvilket ville indikere, at det industridrevne opsving stadig kører i et pænt gear. Sammenhængen med ISM-indekset er dog ikke helt entydig, og vi er måske også mere tilbøjelige til at forvente en lille opbremsning i fremstillingssektoren baseret på de regionale indikatorer vi har til rådighed pt.. Fra euroområdet står dagen i de ledende indikatorers navn, hvor vi får erhvervstillid fra både Frankrig og Belgien. De bliver dog overskygget af de foreløbige PMI-opgørelser for euroområdet, hvor vi ser basis for en stigning i det sammensatte indeks til det højeste niveau i næsten 2½ år på 52,8. Udviklingen ses først og fremmest trukket af servicesektoren, hvor fremgangen ventes understøttet af en fortsat stigende forbrugertillid (som vi også får tal for i dag) mens vi ikke venter ændring i industrien, hvor vi godt kan se et lille fald i PMI-indekset, holdt nede af blandt andet den fortsat stærke EUR. Overordnet tager vi dog formentlig fornurftigt fat på 2014, og det kan isoleret set være medvirkende til at ECB vil forholde sig positivt til udviklingen i de økonomiske tillidsbarometre. Ser vi fremad frygter vi dog fortsat for, at de forværrede finansielle betingelser i form af stærk EUR og stigende korte renter vil bremse udviklingen i PMI-indeksene mere tydeligt. Forbrugertilliden i Danmark har vist positive takter siden sommeren sidste år, men det har været svært at se den stigende optimisme blive afspejlet i højere privatforbrug. De lave renter og tendenserne til lidt højere huspriser og et mere stabilt arbejdsmarked i visse dele af landet virker fortsat understøttende for forbrugertilliden, men modsat ser vi risiko for, at den seneste tids megen fokus på finansieringsmulighederne i forbindelse med især de 1-årige variable realkreditlån kan øge usikkerheden. Overordnet venter vi således at forbrugertilliden vil være uændret 3,0 i januar. US: Stadig negativ effekt på boligsalget Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: En relativt stille dag på de europæiske og amerikanske aktiemarkeder, der ender dagen med små ændringer. De asiatiske markeder falder dog i nat efter skuffende kinesiske nøgletal. Obligationsrenterne stiger en smule, mens EUR/USD har udviklet sig stort set fladt. Kina: Den foreløbige PMI-opgørelse for fremstillingssektoren fra HSBC/Markit faldt fra 50,5 til 49,6 i januar. Dermed indikerer indekset et aftagende momentum i industrien, og besværliggør myndighedernes reformproces, hvor en del af forklaringen bag det faldende PMI-indeks kan skyldes forsøget på at begrænse kreditvæksten, med stigende fundingomkostninger til følge. USA: Ansøgninger om realkreditlån til huskøb faldt efter en kraftig stigning ugen før, og tegner stadig et billede af en vis stagnation på boligmarkedet. EMU: ECB-chef Draghi udtalte, at han så de første tegn på et opsving i euroområdet, men at der fortsat er tale om et svagt opsving med risiko for tilbagefald. Han ser ikke risiko for decideret deflation. Underskuddet på Spaniens handelsbalance steg, men stor efterspørgsel på syndikeret auktion over 10-årige papirer i Spanien. UK: Arbejdsløsheden faldt fra 7,4% til 7,1% i november, og nærmer sig dermed Bank of Englands annoncerede 7%-grænse. Referatet fra det seneste pengepolitiske møde understregede dog, at banken ikke så noget umiddelbart pres for at hæve renten, selv om denne grænse skulle blive brudt. Referatet pegede også på, at bedringen i ledighedstallene muligvis overvurderer tilstanden på arbejdsmarkedet, og der er på den baggrund en vis sandsynlighed for, at Komiteen vil ændre bankens forward guidance, for at fastholde støtten til opsvinget. De offentlige finanser viste et mindre lånebehov end ventet i december. Danmark: Detailomsætningen faldt med -0,6% m/m i december og bekræfter dermed indtrykket af et fortsat haltende privatforbrug. Faldet i detailsalget kommer imidlertid i kølvandet på en pæn stigning i november på 1,0% m/m, som dog formentlig var trukket af en fremrykning af julehandlen. US: Lavere aktivitet uden effekt på priserne endnu For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. januar 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMZC20 CAP (-0,36% / indeks 723,31) endte i negativt territorium og gik dermed mod strømmen af de andre europæiske aktieindeks. Coloplast (-1,64% / kurs 383,00) endte i bunden af indekset efter at den er steget med mere end 5% de foregående to handelsdage. Novozymes (-1,11% / kurs 240,00) endte også lavere efter aktien også var af gevinsthjemtagning efter selskabet havde rapporteret et pænt regnskab i tirsdags. Novo Nordisk (- 1,17% / kurs 210,90) var også med til at sende eliteindekset i negativt territorium dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr. Hansen Holding (+3,02% / kurs 215,10) efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet og anbefalingen på aktien. Nordea (+0,91% / 77,25) endte også højere efter rygter om, at banken vil skille sig af med 40 ansatte i sit svenske hovedsæde i Stockholm. Renter Der var tale om en relativt stille dag på de finansielle markeder i går, hvor udviklingen i aktiekurserne ikke viste de store tegn på udsving i risikovilligheden. Der var heller ikke de helt store nøgletal på programmet, men obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland havde dog en lille pil opad, hvor et større end ventet fald i den britiske ledighed, samt meldinger fra Bank of England om at den vil øge støtte til opsvinget i lang tid endnu, medvirkede til at øge optimismen om det globale økonomiske opsving. Endvidere tiltrak et syndikeret lån i Spanien stor efterspørgsel, som kan have trukket ned i søgningen efter sikre havne. Forventninger om fortsat nedtrapning af obligationsopkøbene fra Fed kan også have givet et lille pres opad i renterne. Ansøgninger om realkreditlån til huskøb faldt dog i USA og vi fik også lidt skuffende tal for kædesalget fra ICSC. I nat fik vi dog et skuffende resultat fra HSBC/Markits foreløbige PMI-opgørelse for fremstillingssektoren, der faldt fra 50,5 til 49,6 i januar, og som dermed peger på aftagende momentum i den kinesiske økonomi. Det har vejet på risikovilligheden på de asiatiske aktiemarkeder, og der er på den baggrund udsigt til at vi herhjemme kan opleve fald i obligationsrenterne fra morgenstunden. Valuta Der har ikke været tale om voldsomme bevægelser i EUR/USD i løbet af i går, hvor der da heller ikke var synderligt med nøgletal til at sætte retningspilen. Om noget er EUR marginalt svagere over for USD, en tendens vi også så i JPY. Et skuffende fald i HSBC/Markits foreløbige PMI-indeks for fremstillingssektoren til under boom/bust-niveauet på 50 har dog styrket JPY en smule i løbet af i nat. De største udsving var at finde i GBP, der efter et langt større fald end ventet i den britiske ledighed blev styrket markant over for EUR, til det stærkeste niveau i tæt ved 1 år. Råvarevalutaer som AUD blev svækket efter det svagere end ventede kinesiske PMI-indeks. Herhjemme fortsætter DKK med at ligge på den svage side af centralpariteten over for EUR, som tilfældet har været det i snart 14 dage. Risikoen for en snarlig selvstændig forhøjelse af renterne fra Nationalbanken er således bestemt til stede, og det kan muligvis blive tilfældet allerede i morgen, om end vi endnu ikke har noget klart billede af hvor meget Nationalbanken har interveneret i markedet. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. januar 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 21/01/14 Novozymes Årsregnskab 23/01/14 NeuroSearch Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 20/01/14 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Jan %/5.4% 1.0%/6.3% 20/01/14 02:30 Kina Business Climate Index 4Q /01/14 03:00 Kina GDP YoY 4Q 7.6% 7.6% 7.8% 7.7% 20/01/14 03:00 Kina GDP SA QoQ 4Q 2.0% % 7.7% 20/01/14 03:00 Kina Industrial Production YoY Dec 9.8% % 9.7% 20/01/14 03:00 Kina Retail Sales YoY Dec 13.6% % 13.6% 21/01/14 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Jan /01/14 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Jan /01/14 12:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Jan /01/14 15:30 IMF Releases Revisions to Its World Economic Outlook 22/01/14 Japan BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target 22. Jan 270T T 270T 22/01/14 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement 22/01/14 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Dec -0.3%/ -0.5%/ 1.0%/0.5% -0.6%/-1.5% 22/01/14 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Nov 7.3% % 7.1% 22/01/14 10:30 UK Bank of England Minutes 22/01/14 10:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions Dec 14.0B B(r) 12.1B 22/01/14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 17. Jan % 4.7% 23/01/14 02:45 Kina HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Jan /01/14 03:00 Kina Conference Board China December Leading Economic Index 23/01/14 08:45 Frankrig Business Confidence Jan /01/14 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Jan /01/14 09:30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Dec 7.9% 8.1% 8.0% 23/01/14 10:00 EMU PMI Manufacturing Jan A /01/14 10:00 EMU PMI Composite Jan A /01/14 10:00 EMU PMI Services Jan A /01/14 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Jan /01/14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 18. Jan 330K K 23/01/14 14:58 USA Markit US PMI Preliminary Jan /01/14 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Jan (6) /01/14 15:00 USA House Price Index MoM Nov 0.4% % 23/01/14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 19. Jan /01/14 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Jan A /01/14 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Dec 4.93M 4.85M 4.90M 23/01/14 16:00 USA Leading Index Dec 0.2% % 24/01/14 Ingen væsentlige data Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, [email protected], Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, [email protected] Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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