I I. Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community. Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske sit.uation i Frellesskabet

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1 Commission of the European Communities Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske sit.uation i Frellesskabet Published monthly Manedlig publikation

2 This publication appears monthly (except August and September, which are combined in a double number). Denne publikation udkommer manedligt (bortset fra et dobbeltnummer i perioden augustseptember) The Graphs and Notes of Group A appear in eery issue and deal with: A 1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The others (Groups B, C and D) appear quarterly as follows: Diagram mer og bemcerkninger til gruppe A: A1 lndustriproduktion A2 Antal arbejdsl0se A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Handelsbalance offentligg0res i hert nummer, medens grupperne B, C og D findes i f0lgende udgaer: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober 81 Exports 82 Trade between member countries 83 Discount rate and callmoney rates 84 Money supply 85 Exchange rates 81 Eksport 82 Handel mellem medlemslandene 83 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente 84 Pengeforsyning 85 Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 mports C1 mport C2 Terms of trade C2 Byttefol"hold C3 Wholesale prices C3 Engrospriser C4 Retail sales C4 Detailomscetning C5 Wages C5 L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D1 Produktion i metalindustri D2 Dwellings authorized D2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Tax reenue D3 Skattei ndtcegter D4 Share prices D4 Aktiekurser D5 Longterm interest rates D5 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlig_e konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Fcellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemcerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGenerar for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends 200, rue de la Loi, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F.l.ELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0 konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling 200, rue de la Loi Bruxelles

4 CLMATE FOR NDUSTRAL NVESTMENT N THE COMMUNTY To judge from the first results of the Community inestment surey carried out last autumn, most of the member countries hae experienced unchanged or falling industrial inestment expenditure in n France and Germany it seems that there was no growth, and in both countries the sharpest fall from the preious year has occurred in the food manufacturing and the processing industries. n Belgium and Luxembourg there has been a general decline, but particularly affected hae been the basic products and processing industries. n 1976 the propensity to inest should in general remain ery moderate in the countries of the Community. The improement in the economic climate could howeer lead to an upward reision of inestment programmes, as was the case in seeral industries and countries in 1969 and n F ranee a rise of some 9% is likely to be recorded in the alue of total industrial inestment in 1976, with especially strong increases in the basic products and metal industries and. to a lesser extent, in the engineering, mining and food manufacturing industries. n Germany inestment programmes may in total be subject to a fall of about %, which will principally affect the basic products industry and also the engineering industry. n Belgium the decline is likely to be general, while in Luxembourg the metal and mechanical engineering industries may be the only ones to experience any increase. Brussels, 31 December NVESTERNGSKLMAET NDUSTREN NDEN FOR F.tELLESSKABET At d0mme efter de f0rste resultater af den konjunkturunders0gelse, som ble foretaget i eften'iret oer inesteringerne i Frellesskabet, ii de fleste medlemslande i 1975 hae opleet en stagnation eller et fald i inesteringsomkostningerne i industrien. Frankrig og Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland ii stigningstakten hae reret nul. disse to ande er det nreringsmiddelindustrien og den forarbejdende industri, som ii hae reret udsat for den alarligste tilbagegang i forhold til foregaende ar. Belgien og Luxembourg ii tilbagegangen hae a::ret generel, men ii dog i srerlig grad hae ramt n'iareindustrien og den forarbejdende industri ii inesteringstilb0jeligheden i almindelighed rere meget ringe inden for st0rstedelen af Frellesskabet. Forbedringen af det 0konomiske klima kan dog medf0re, at inesteringsprogrammerne ii blie for0get, saledes som det ar tilfreldet for flere ande og sektorer i 1969 og Frankrig ii man sandsynligis i 1976 notere en rerdistigning pa omkring 9% i industriens samlede inesteringer; isrer il raareindustrien, metalindustrien og, i mindre grad, den mekaniske industri, elektroindustrien, nreringsmiddelindustrien og minedriften drage fordel heraf. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland ii de samlede inesteringsprogrammer blie reducerct med. ca. 1 %, hilket iscer il ramme n'iareindustrien samt den mekaniske industri og elektroindustrien. Belgien ii tilbagegangen rere generel, horimod metalindustrien og den mekaniske industri il rere de eneste, der noterer en is opgang i Luxembourg. Bruxelles, den 31. december 1975.

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 1970 = 100 Unadjusted 150 CE EG EC lkke scesonkorrigerede tal 150 Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal CE EG EC _,., _._ '.._ ' M A M A 0 N D 90 F M A M A 0 N D There hae been signs of late that certain demand components hae been gathering strenght, and industrial production in the Community taken as a whole started to make some progress in October. ndeed, the seasonallyadjusted index (excluding building and construction) was appreciable higher than in September, though it was running nearly 6% below the October 1974 figure. All the member countries shared in this recoery, except Luxembourg, where in October industrial production was again lower than in the preceding month, because of a further large reduction in steel output. The results of the latest business sureysparticularly managements' comments concerning production expectations for the following three or four months and their answers concerning total orders on handsuggest that during the final months of 1975 industrial production has continued to expand in the Community and has een accelerated in Germany. Efter de tegn pa bedring, som isse eftersp0rgselselementer i den seneste tid har baret pneg af, har der i oktober reret en is fremgang i industriproduktionen i Frellesskabet som helhed. Der har endog i forhold til maneden f0r reret tale om en stor stigning ( +,5 %) i det sresonkorrigerede indeks eksklusie bygge og anlregsirksomhed, men dette indeks er stadig tret ed 6 aere end nieauet i oktober Med undtagelse af Luxembourg, hor industriproduktionen atter er faldet i forhold til september som f0lge af en ny og kraftig reduktion af jernproduktionen, har aile medlemslandene nydt godt af dette opsing. Resultaterne af de seneste konjunk_turrundsp0rger. nanlig irksomhedsledernes tilkendegielser edr0rende produktionsudsigterne for de kommende tre eller fire maneder ogden samlede situation edmrende ordrebeholdninger, gier anledning til den antagelse, at i de sidste maneder af 1975 ii stigningcn i industriproduktionen i Frelleskabet fortsrette og endog accelerere i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A 1970 = 100 Adjusted indices Sresonkorrigerede tal Danmark ltalia Belgique Belgie luxembourg United Kingdom j,..oo""" < \:::; f K _,.. < ,..,.., _... b "7 '.._ """"'1111: '..._ ',? \\ h ' " '... # 7 \ """"" 1.. \ \ \ '.. \ \ ' Adjusted indices , 150 f BR Deutschland reland France Nederland 140 Sresonkorrigerede tal ' _..._ _ '""= """ "'" lr '......!;ll", _ """.... j,... 1= "" 1=.J...,.' V'"""' J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F ' M A M J J A S 0 N D

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (thousands) (i tusinde) BOO Q J o= " l.f'.'.....,..,. li"""...,.....'.. [...,., '== "',.,..., _,... "' : ,...,. '.'... ' Oanmark BR Deutschland 1 France ltalia reland Nederland ', ;..r\ _,..., "....,... BelgiqueBelgie._.. United Kingdom,..::.,..."':....) "'.,.,... r 1...,., L 1 l l J FMAMJ J A SOH OJ FMAMJ J ASOHDJ FMAM J JASOHDJ FMAMJ J ASOHD Until the autumn, the labour market situation had been deteriorating throughout the Community, but the tendency then seems to hae become less pronounced in certain member countries. For example, in Germany, the seasonallyadjusted number of unemployed began declining a little in October and this trend was confirmed in Noember; unemployment is also now rather lower in the Netherlands. This change, which has been accompanied by an increase in the number of acancies, seems to suggest that the number of persons in paid employment is no longer falling in these two countries. n the United Kingdom, the number of adult unemployed, seasonallyadjusted, is still increasing, but there are now definitely fewer schoolleaers looking for their first job, although this is partly because some of them hae simply returned to school or college. Although still high, the leel of shorttime working is apparently tending to decline in some countries, and this is attributable to a recoery of actiity in certain industries, such as the motor industry. Den forrerring pa arbejdsmarkedet, som hidtil har gjort sig gceldende oeralt i Frellesskabet, synes at rere bleet mindre udtalt i isse medlemslande i l0bet af efteniret. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland er den beherskede nedgang i det sresonkorrigerede antal arbejdsl0se, der indledtes i oktober, fortsat i noember; ogsa i Nederlandene er der kon&tateret et sagt fald i arbejdsl0sheden. Denne udikling, som for 0rigt er fulgt af en stigning i antallet af ledige ubesatte pladser, synes at gie udtryk for en opbremsning af processen med reduktion af beskreftigelsesgraden i de to ande. Det forenede Kongerige er der stadig tale om en stigning i det for sresonudsing korrigerede an tal oksne arbejdsl0se, men siden sommerens afslutning om et fald i antallet af unge, der s0ger deres f0rste arbejde, delis som f0lge af en friillig forhengelse af skolegangen. Sel om omfanget af korttidsarbejde stadig er meget stort, har der dog i nogle medlemslande ist sig tendens til reduktion, under indflydelse af det opsing der er registreret i isse sektorer, iscer automobilindustrien.

8 CONSUMER PRCES 1970 = r R Deutschland France ltolia Belgique Belgie Luxembourg _ """""...,.,... ""',., V,., _.,6' 1... FORBRUGERPRSER ' "' 1... "'... 1 Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % 1l + 2, ":i J\ \ A ' Dan mark reland Nederland United Kingdom,.,.,..... '... V'.,,' ""... l. '... "' ,... 0, ,0 + 0, l l 1 J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAM J JASOND A 0.5 Consumer prices in the Community taken as a whole continued to increase during the autumn, at an annual rate of about 0 "o n Noember, the rate of increase was still slow in Germany, and was losing momentum in the Netherlands and, to a lesser extent, in France. t is true that in the United Kingdom the upward price moement has remained relatiely rapid, but there has neertheless been a tendency for it to slacken off a little. n Denmark, on the other hand, price increases gathered pace after the lull in October which reflected reductions in VAT rates for certain items. n reland, following the fall in August resulting from the budget measures, a relatiely small rise in the quarterly index was recorded in Noember. Generally speaking, food prices are those which hae increased most, and this is only partly due to seasonal factors, for it is also a result of farmgate and market price adjustments. Charges for sericesparticularly rents hae again climbed sharply in most of the countries. Forbrugerprisstigningen er i l0bet af efteraret fortsat med en arlig stigningstakt pa ca. 10 % for Frellesskabet som helhed. noember er den forbleet moderat i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, medens den ar aftagende i de 0rige medlemslande, isrer i Nederlandene, og, i mindre omfang, i Frankrig. Sel om prisstigningen er forbleet forholdsis hastig i Det forenede Kongerige, har den ikke desto mindre udist en tendens til sag aftagen. Danmark har prisstigningen derimod accelereret cftcr den afd <:empning, der i oktober fulgte efter nedsrettelsen ar merrerdiafgiften pa isse arer. rland er der i noember rcgistrcrct en relati modcrat stigning i det kartalsise indeks, efter det fald. som de budgetmcessige foranstaltninger medf0rte i august. Deter i almindelighed priserne pa meringsmidler, der er genstai1d for de kraftigste stigninger. Denne tendens kan kun delis tilskries sresonmressige faktorers indirkning. Den er ligeledes et resultat af prisjusteringer i produktions og afsretningsleddet for landbrugsprodukter.

9 A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur Dan mark t BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL , '""' \ \ ; ',. { ,..._... r '...,... _, _ L ' G. V la. +2oor..,.r,,,.,,,.,..... r.. 0 ::;._...:: ' ' 7'".. '... :::: ' r r A" J F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N DJ F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N D The trade balance of the Community deteriorated gradually up to October, but it seems that in Noember this trend was interrupted in some major countries, under the influence of a slowing down in imports and some acceleration in exports. n France, where imports hae been growing since June and exports hae picked up slightly since the decline during the summer, the trade balance improed a little in Noember due to a strong increase in exports in that month especially towards the United States. Similar deelopments in Germany led to a narrowing of the trade surplus until October, but in Noember the trade balance strengthened mainly as a result of a decline in imports. n the United Kingdom, howeer, the trade deficit grew again in Noember as exports recorded a fall from the exceptionally high leel reached in October under. the influence of special factors. n reland the trade balance returned to deficit for similar reasons, while in Denmark it did not show much change due to an almost similar growth pattern for exports and imports: Forringelsen af Frellesskabets handelsbalance fortsatte indtil oktober. flere af de igtigste medlemslande ser det imidlertid ud til, at udiklingen er afbrudt i noember under indflydelse af nedgang i importen samt en sagt accelererende stigningstakt for eksporten. Frankrig, hor importen har reret stigende siden juni, og hor salget til undlandet pany har ist en sag stigning efter det fald, som ble registreret gennem sidste sommer, har handelsbalancen i noember ist en mindre forbedring takket rere en endnu kraftigere stigningstakt for eksporten og isrer salget til De forenede Stater. En tilsarende udikling har reret noteret i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland: dets oerskud er bleet formindsket indtil oktober, for derefter at stige i noember, isrer som f0lge af en tilbagegang i k0bet fra udlandet. Det forenede Kongeriges underskud begyndte atter at stige i noember maned. Den britiske eksport iste et omsing i forhold til det usredanligt h0je nieau den naede op pa i oktober under indflydelse af uforudsete faktorer. Af samme arsag udiste handelsbalancen i rland igen et underskud. Endelig rendrede Danmarks handelsbalance sig ikke resentligt, da eksporten er steget med nresten samme hastighed som importen.

10 Dl OUTPUT N THE METAL PRODUCTS NDUSTRES PRODUKTON METALNDUSTR Dl Dan mark France Belgique Belgie Luxembourg United Kingdom T f 1""" io""" '"""""" :;;;._... f V" ; ""...,_ ' r Q0 1 Dtslnd reland ltalia 1 Nederland , r ' "" '.: r """"""... ".o; ' " l J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND t looks ery much as if the Community's metal products industries are now pulling out of the depression: by September the seasonallyadjusted index of production had climbed back to its leel in June. The recoery in the motor manufacturing industry has continued. n this industry, the October figures were better than the October 1974 figures eerywhere except in the United Kingdom; for the Community taken as a whole, the improement is nearly 9 % This recoery is beginning to boost actiity in related industries. On the other hand the tempo of production has lost momentum in shipbuilding, where it was still liely in the spring. The lack of igour in mechanical engineering has persisted in recent months, and in the electrical engineering industry production has declined of late in specific areas in certain member countries. Recent trends in prices and orders in the Community steel industry suggest a strengthening in demand from user industries. As a whole some improement in the tempo of actiity in the metal products industries can thus be expected. Metalindustrien inden for Frellesskabet synes at hae passeret depressionens laeste punkt. Det sresonkorrigerede indeks steg i september til nieauet i juni. Det opsing, der er indledt i automobilindustrien og som nu er begyndt at stimulere aktiiteten i tilknyttede industrier, fortsretter. denne sektor har resultaterne i oktober oeralt med undtagelse af Det forenede Kongerige reret bedre end resultaterne i oktober 1974; for Frellesskabet som helhed er der tale om en stigning pa nresten 9 %. Til gengreld er produkti6nshastigheden aftaget i skibse:erftsindustrien, hor der ar tale om tiltagende produktion indtil foraret. Mangelen pa dynamik i maksinindustrien har fortsat gjort sig greldende i l0bet af de seneste maneder, medens elektroindustrien i den seneste tid har haft lokale produktionsnedgange i isse medlemslande. Den seneste udikling i priser og ordrer inden for jernomradet synes at godtg0re, at der er tale om en stigende eftersp0rgsel fra de industrier, der bruger jern. Der kan derfor som helhed forentes en bedri.ng i aktiitetsrytmen i metalindustrien.

11 D2 DWELLNGS AUTHORZED (thousands) BOLGER HVORTL DER ER GVET BYGGETLLADELSER (i tusind) D B.R. Deutschland 1 France rltalia Nederland Belgique Belg1e 100 r reland Dan mark V\ J A )' \ 0 \) J \ l'h )._..,. \.. tv k \ \ f \ 'f \J y \... "' 1\ ;' 1\ \ \, \. \ \} "'.,_. l. ;,.,... j """" \ """ 1 \ j. '... \ t, 1\ \ J r 1 lf "' '\J,...,. "rv A \ 1 \ \ J V V\ ' \ \ \!.,.<' 1 \ \ A '... _ 1 ' 1\ }j..j \A ', 1\ 3 2 '' \ l. J FMAMJ JASONOJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND Although in general residential construction in the priate sector is still weak, the number of permits issued proides unmistakable eidence that measures to stimulate operations in this industry adopted by the goernments of the Member States hae been producing results. This is particularly true in Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark, where the number of permits is aboe or well aboe the figure of a year preiously. n the United Kingdom, too. the number of housing starts is still increasing at a substantial rate. On the other hand, residential construction was still definitely declining until the middle of the year in Belgium, where mortgage interest rates hae declined to only a small extent. As there are some signs of a recoery in the public works sector and as the decline in industrial and commercial building seems to hae slowed, the net effect is that the oerall actiity of the building and construction industry is expanding. To judge from information now aailable, this moement (apart from seasonal ariations) should continue in seeral member countries in the coming months. Trods den edholdende lakonjunktur, der i almindelighed karakteriserer boligbyggeriet i den priate sektor, synes udiklingen i antallet afbyggetilladelser i h0j grad at rere bleet pairket ed de af medlemsstaternes regeringer irerksatte konjunkturstimulerende indgreb pa dette omrade. Denne pairkning har nanlig gjort sig greldende i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, Nederlandene og Danmark ; i disse ande er antallet af udstedte tilladelser til tider betydeligt st0rre end det et ar tidligere registrerede resultat. Ogsa i Det forenede Kongerige fortsretter omfanget af pabegyndt byggeri med at stige strerkt. Til gengreld har det pabegyndte boligbyggeri reret klart aftagende frem til midten af 1975 i Belgien og Luxembourg, hor der for 0rigt har reret tale om et relatit moderat fald i rentesatserne for realkredit. Da der ligeledes har reret tegn pa opsing i sektoren for offentlige arbejder, og da den tilbagegang, der registreredes inden for byggeri til ind ustri og handel, synes at rere bragt til oph0r, er den samlede aktiitet inden for byggeindustrien nu for opadgaende. At d0mme efter den information, der er til radighed f6r 0jeblikket, ii denne udikling antagelig fortsrette i flere medlemsstater i de kommende maneder, safremt der ses bort fra de sresonmressige faktorers indirkning.

12 D3 TAX REVENUE SKATTENDTA:GTER D B.R. Deutschland Mrd DM France reland ltalia Nederland BelgiqueBelgie 28 Luxembourg United Kingdom 20,., 2? ' !V Mrd FF ll V ll V Mio Mrd Lit 8000 Mio Fl ll V Mio FB Mio Flbg 3500rMi o tj' s ll V 1500 q]<; "'", """' """' ll V ll V The sluggish trend of tax reenue, in eidence since mid1974, generally continued in the autumn of Howeer, there are indications that in Germany at least the flow of tax reenue has recently not been quite so slack as expected only a few months ago. n taly, it was mainly VAT receipts which were disappointing. n France and, to a lesser extent, in Germany social security contributions went up at the beginning of n almost all the member countries the expansionary effects of the budgets was strenghtened further in the autumn. n France, budget management in the second half of 1975 showed a particularly clear switch towards stimulating the economy. n taly, the growth in goernment spending and the leel and financing of the 1976 budget deficit are subject to detailed restrictions recently laid down by the Council of Ministers in connection with the mediumterm financial assistance granted a year ago. Det lae skatteproenu, som har kendetegnet situationen siden midten af 1974, ar fortsat fremherskende i efteraret Der er dog grund til at antage, at skatteindtregterne i det mindste i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland i den seneste tid har udiklet sig mindre ugunstigt, end anshiet for blot fa maneder siden. talien udiste frem for alt indtregterne af merrerdiafgiften et skuffende resultat. Frankrig og i mindre omfang i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland forh0jedes bidragene til den sociale sikringsordning i begyndelsen af De offentlige budgetters ekspansie irkning er i efteraret forstrerket yderligere i nresten aile medlemslande. Srerlig udprreget ar det omsing, som i andet halar 1975 fandt sted i forbindelse med gennemf0relsen af det franske budget i konjunkturstimulerende retning. Radet har i forbindelse med den mellemfristede finansielle bistand som ble ydet talien for et ar siden fastsat detaljerede rammer for reksten ide italienske statsudgifter samt for omfanget og finansieringen af det italienske budgetunderskud for aret G

13 D4 SHARE PRCES AKTEKURSER D = 100 J l j 140 BR Deutschland ltalia Nederland United Kingdom ' ' '' 1,1 \' "'. 7 "\ 100 '"' , [,'...;;... r\,, 1\'._... \.... \ V " 7' "' f\ \' "".J \,., '\., VJ '\ '\ \ 240r. 1,l J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D The rise in share prices, which was interrupted during the summer, resumed in the autumn on most of the stock markets in the Community. n addition the olume of share transactions has increased appreciably. At the end of the year, share price indices in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Denmark touched or were close to their highest points for the year. The main reasons behind the rally are probably the clearer signs of an economic recoery and the ample supply of liquidity. n taly, there was also a reial, een though share prices are still well below the leels reached in the spring, despite the fact that talian companies may now adjust the fixed assets in their balance sheets to take account of inflation. The recoery which got under way in the summer on the London stock exchange took the share price index in the second half of Noember and again at the beginning of the new year to its highest point for two years. n Belgium, share prices were depressed not only by the poor profit outlook but also by the diidend restraint planned to be introduced as part of incomes policy. Pa de fleste aktiemarkeder i Frellesskabet er kursstigningen efter en pause i sommermanederne fortsat i l0bet af efteraret. Omsretningen er ogsa i almindelighed tiltaget mrerkbart. Kursindekset a ed arets udgang i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, i Frankrig, i Nederlandene og i Danmark pa eller nrer ed de h0jeste rerdier registreret i l0bet af De resentligste arsager til opsinget skaj formentjig s0ges i det forhold, at tegnene pa et konjunturomsing er bleet tydeligere og at likiditeten er st<!rkt forbredet. Omsinget ar udprreget pa det italienske aktiemarked omend afstanden op til forarets kursnieau stadig er betydelig, trods den mulighed som abnedes for irksomhederne til ed statusopg0relsen at tage hensyn til forringelsen af penge<!rdien. Pa b0rsen i London bragte den bedring, som har kunnet iagttages siden sidste sommer, aktieindekset op pa det h0jeste nieau gennem to ar i anden haldel af noember og atter ed dette ars begyndelse. Kursudiklingen pa det belgiske aktiemarked er under negati indflyde)se ikke blot af irksomhedernes ugunstige indtjeningsnieau, men ogsa de planlagte udbyttebegr<!nsninger i forbindelse med indkomstpolitikken.

14 DS LONGTERM NTEREST RATES LANGFRSTEDE RENTESATSER DS % ' Danmark B.A. Deutschland lrlande United Kingdom ),,...; r... "" """" 11974! _ , () \ \ \. \ l l, A ' ',, 'Y \\\ " \ "' \, r,, '' ',\ r\.. r., L." \ France ltalia Nederland..., Belgique Belgie ' tl ".. '.."!,., rr:7 "\ r... ::::> VL r'... kl k::"\,.,, r..,.... y r ' L 1 J F M AM J J AS 0 N OJ F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 Longterm interest rates in general were little changed in the autumn. Seeral conflicting factors seem to be balancing each other out at present:. the high leel of liquidity and, in some countries, the prospect of slower price inflation are exerting downward pressure on interest rates while the heay public sector borrowing requirements are tending to push them up. New issues, especially of goernment securities, in general found a more receptie market than a few months ago. n Germany, interest rates eased slightly een though the Bundesbank ceased to support prices in October and the ban on new issues has now been lifted. n the Netherlands, too, the market absorbed a substantial olume of new issues. floated to finance the goernment's budget deficit. Howeer, in the United Kingdom, reland and Denmarkthe three countries with the highest leels interest rates edged up further. Monetary policy has in general been expansionary for a year or so, but this has had a remarkably small impact on longterm interest rates as opposed to shortterm rates. Taking the aerage for the Community, longterm interest rates fell from some about 11 % in the past twele months. The drop was between 2 and 3 percentage points in the three countries with the highest leels and between just under and 1 Y 2 percentage points elsewhere. to De langfristede rentesatser har i det store og hele kun rendret sig lidt i eftediret. Flere modsatrettede krrefter synes i 0jeblikket at opeje hinanden: en god likiditet og til dels gunstigere udsigter for prisudiklingen irker drempende pa renteudiklingen det offentliges store kreditbeho irker i retning af stigende rente. Markederne ar i det store og hele igen mere modtagelige for nyemissioner isrer fra staten end for nogle maneder siden. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland er der sket et mindre rentefald, sel om Bundesbank opga sin kursst0tte i oktober og emissionspausen i mellemtiden er afsluttet. Ogsa i Nederlandene kunne der placeres en betydelig emission til finansiering af underskuddet pa statsbudgettet. Derimod er rentesatserne i de tre ande med det h0jeste nieau, nemlig Det forenede Kongerige, rland og Danmark steget yderligere. Den i almindelighed ekspansie penge og kreditpolitik, som er f0rt gennem det seneste ar, har i modsretning til had der har reret tilfreldet med de korte rentesatser i bemrerkelsesrerdigt ringe omfang slaet ingennem pa de langfristede rentesatser. gennemsnit for Frellesskabet er kapitalmarkedsrenten gennem de seneste 12 mander faldet fra ca. 12,5 % til ca. 11 %. For de tre ande med de h0jeste satser udg0r faldet mellem 2 og 3 procentpoint og for de 0rige knap 1 til Yz point.

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF. KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FA:LLESSKABET + 40 %of answers % af sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning il"""' ,... rr, CEEGEC BR Deutschland France ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie irelfnd Jl. b klk 11 7T JFMAM J JAS 0 N D J F M ;:::... r,.c::_ V '...,., ' \ r y ' "' \ ' ' ' ". \.\\ \,\' ' J f J.:"''ooo,. A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M 1\ M 0 N 0 Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af frerdigarelagre_ + 40 J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger %of answers % af sar CE EG EC BR Deutschland 30 France ltalia Nederland Graplti and show businessmen's iews of their total orderhooks and their stocks offinished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages of the aif.ference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( +) and the percentage of those who find them "below normal" ( ). Graph m shows threemonth moing aerages of"the difference (as percentage of replies) betwef?n the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( +) and those who expec(ed it to be down (). The table below shows businessmen's assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( + ) being aboe normal, ( = ) being normal, ( ) being below normal. t also shows whether. they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( + ), no change ( =) or decrease () in their production and in their selling prices. Detailed comments are gien in "Results of the business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community", published three times a year. Diagrammerne og gengier tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af forskelscerdien melem irksomhedsledernes sar»sterre«( +) og»mindre«( ) edrerende ordrebestand og feerdigarelagre. Diagram m iser ligeledes i form af tre maneders glidende gennemsnit forskelscerdien ( procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»foregelse«( +) eller en»formindskelse«() af produktionen. Nedenstaende tabel gengier for de seneste tre maneder irksomhedsedernes bedfjmmelse af, om de samede ordrebeholdninger, udandsordrer og feerdigareagre ar forhodsis store ( + ), nor male ( = ) eller forholdsis sma (). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( +), nogenlunde ucendrede ( = ) eller aftagende () produktion og sagsprisen i de felgende tre eller fire maneder anffjrt. Udferlige kommentarer findes i»resultaterne af konjunkturundersfjgelsen hos irksomhedsledere i FCEesskabet«der offentliggeres tre gange om aret.. BR Deutschland France A s 0 A s 0 Total orderbooks ' = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks Den udenlandskeordrebeholdning = Stocks of finished goods = F a:rdigarelagre Expectations: production = Produktionsforentningerne Expectations: selling prices = Salgsprisf oren tninger ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. A reland talia Nederland Belgique Luxem EEC Belgie bourg E0F s 0 A s 0 A s 0 A s 0 A s 0 A s ) Eksklusie bygge og an!cegsirksomhed, ncerings og nydelsesmiddelindus tri.

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammeme A ndustrial production: indices of the S.O.E.C., excluding construction but, except for France, including, since no , the food, drink and tobacco industries. For the deseasonalized indice, three month moing aerages. Community: e.'itimates. reland: quarterly index. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. France: number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A lndustriproduktion: index ( excl. bygge og anlagsirksomhed) udarbejdet af S.K.E.F.; undtagen for Frankrigs edkommende indeholder indexet fra nr narings og nydelsesmiddelindustri. Sasonkorrigerede index fremtrader som tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Fallesskabet: sken. rland: kartalsindex. A 2 Antal arbejdslese: Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af sasonkorrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Frankrig: antal arbejdssegende. talien: kuren angier antal personer, registreret pd arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke til antal arbejdslese. Luxembourg: ubetydelig arbejdsleshed. Belgien: fuldtids ledige personer, som modtager arbejdsleshedsunderstettelse. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. A 4 Balance of trade: ncluding intracommunity trade. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Exports fob, imports elf; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A 4 Handelsbalance: nklusie handel indenfor Fallesskabet. Fallesskabet: kun handel med ikke medlemslande. Beregnet pd grundlag af tal for import og eksport sasonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.if, eksklusie monetart guld. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder are deis baseret pd sken. Belgien og Luxembourg: falles kure. D Output in the metal products industries: Seasonally adjusted indices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities; Three month moing aerages. Comparable figures are not aailable for Denmark and reland. D Produktion i metalindustri: Sasonkorrigeret indeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber; tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. For.Jrland og Danmark foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal, D 2 Dwellings authorised: Number of dwellings for which permits hae been issued. Germany: from 1968 West Berlin excluded. Comparable figures are not aailable for the United Kingdom. Source: SOEC. D 2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelser: Antal udstedte byggetilladelser til boligbyggeri. Tyskland: eksklusie Vest Berlin. For Det forenede Kongerige foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Department of Local Goernment. D 3 Tax reenue: Goernment tax reenue. Monthly aerages. Germany: Federal and Liinder taxes. Denmark: comparable figures are not aailable. Source: SOEC, reland: Central Statistics Office. D4 Share prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. D 3 Skatteindt segter: Stat ens skatteindtagter mdnedsgennemsnit Tyskland: inkusie skatteindtagter i delstaterne. For Danmark foreigger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Central Statics Office. D4 Aktiekurser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. D 5 Longterm interest rates: Yield on fixedinterestbearing securities. Belgium: goernment securities maturing in oer 5 years issued after 1 December France: interest yield on securities in the priate sector; 2nd category loans. Netherlands: aerage yield of the three most recent goernment loans. Germany: all stock exchange securities quoted. taly: yield on bonds. United Kingdom, reland and Denmark: Goernment Bond Yield. Source: SOEC. D 5 Langfristede rentesatser: Afkast af ardipapirer med fast nomine rente. Belgien: Statsardipapirer med mere end 5 drs ebetid udstedt efter 1. december Frankrig: renteafkast af ardipapirer i den priate sektor; 2. prioritets an. Nederlandene: gennemsnitsrente af de 3 seneste statsldn. Tyskland aile bersnoterede ardipapirer. talien: afkast af obligationer. Det forenede Kongerige, rland og Danmark: Afkast af statsobligationer. Kilde: SKEF. 1 Eur= (Noembernoember 1975) 3,21978 DM 5,55419 Ffr 3,35507 Fl 851 Lit 48,6572 FbF1x 0,611 7,57831 Dkr

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