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1 25. november 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I dag er der tale om en rimelig tætpakket USA-kalender inden Thanksgiving-ferien torsdag-fredag. Blandt de vigtigste nøgletal ventes at blive ordreindgangen på varige goder. Disse ventes at stige pænt i oktober, efter de lidt skuffende fald de forrige par måneder. Der ventes en fremgang på 1,5% m/m i de totale ordrer i september, hvilket især skyldes stigende salg af biler og fly. Ser vi på kerneordrerne ventes en lille stigning på 0,3% m/m, hvilket især er blevet indikeret af en stigning i ISM s ordreindeks. Derudover får vi også opgørelsen over det personlige forbrug for oktober, hvor der ventes en lille fremgang i væksten til 0,3% m/m oven på skuffende 0,1% i september, hvilket var den mindste fremgang siden januar. Her bliver det dog nok mere interessant at se på forbrugsdeflatoren PCE-core, som jo er et af de vigtige prisbegreber for Federal Reserve. Årsstigningstakten i PCE-core ventes at stige en tand til 1,4% i oktober, men den udvikler sig således fortsat mere afdæmpet end det tilsvarende inflationsmål baseret på forbrugerpriserne (se figur). PCE-core ventes dog at stige op mod forbrugerprisinflationen i begyndelsen af det nye år, når påvirkningen af ændringerne MedicCare-omkostningerne falder bort. Ind til videre er der dog ikke tegn på, at PCE-core inflationen er begyndt at stige. Vi får også Markits PMI-indeks for servicesektoren. Her venter vi en stigning i november til 55,2 i overensstemmelse med bedring i forbrugertilliden (jf. neden for), samt ikke mindst at PMIindekset senest har udviklet sig en del mere negativt end det tilsvarende ISM-indeks. Vi modtager også antallet af solgte nye boliger, hvor der ventes en stigning i september oven på det meget store fald i august. Fremadrettet venter vi en lidt svagere udvikling som antydet af tilbagefald i realkreditansøgningerne. Disse får vi også friske tal på angående sidste uge. Derudover får vi opgørelse over nytilmeldte ledige på overførselsindkomst, FHFA s boligprisindeks samt Bloomberg-forbrugertillid. Uden for USA kan der være en smule fokus på fransk forbrugertillid samt svensk konjunkturbarometer fra Konjunkturinstituttet begge angående november. USA: Stadig stor forskel på inflationsmål Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Stemning på aktiemarkeder forsures efter Tyrkiet nedskyder russisk militærfly, men USA retter sig på en vis fortrøstning om at situationen ikke eskalerer. Olieprisen stiger, EUR/USD stiger, mens renter er mere stabile. Asien børser tynges tilsvarende, herunder især Japan pga. stærkere JPY. USA: Forbrugertilliden fra Conference Board faldt overraskende i november til laveste niveau i 14 måneder. Det var især vurderingen af jobmulighederne som blev forværret pegende på højere arbejdsløshed (se figur). BNP-væksten for 3. kvartal blev stort set som ventet oprevideret til 2,1% q/q (annualiseret) fra tidligere 1,5%. Oprevideringen skyldtes især mindre negativt træk fra lagrene end først estimeret samt lidt højere investeringsaktivitet, mens privatforbruget bidrog en smule mindre. Tallene svækker dog udsigterne for 4. kvartal end smule, idet lagrene her må nu må antages at skulle nedbringes lidt mere end først antaget. Underskuddet på varebalancen overraskede igen positiv i oktober, hvor det faldt til laveste underskud i otte måneder. Richmond Fed s fremstillingsindeks faldt uventet i november, men niveauet indikerer isoleret set mulighed for stigning i ISM s fremstillingsindeks. S&P/CaseShillers boligprisindeks viste større en ventet vækst på 5,45% y/y i tremåneders perioden frem til og med september. Efter stabil prisvækst er den steget lidt de sidste to måneder til det højeste årsvækst i 13 måneder. Kina: Stimulansforventninger får lidt medvind efter at flere små aktivitetsbarometre for november har vist sig svagere end håbet på. Til morgen modtog vi således et svagt Baidu-indeks (internetsøgninger på små- og mellemstore virksomheder) samt Minxin PMI. Det skal lægges til et tidligere skuffende november-fald i MNI-indekset, og det antyder at økonomien ikke er bundet ud endnu. Japan: Shoko Chukin s tillidsindeks for mindre virksomheder steg kraftigt i november til det højeste niveau siden lige inden momsforhøjelsen i april Det peger på bedring i industriproduktionen i 4. kvartal. Euroområdet: Tysk Ifo-indeks steg fra opreviderede 108,2 til 109,0 i november, og fulgte dermed i kølvandet på stigningen i det tyske PMI forleden. Selv om der kun var tale om en relativ marginal fremgang, var det alligevel overraskende positivt at dette vigtige indeks steg, efter at det var faldet svagt tilbage i forrige måned. Fremgangen i det overordnede Ifo-indeks var trukket af en stigning i både forventningsindekset samt i vurderingen af den aktuelle situation. Der var således ikke tegn på nogen signifikant negativ effekt fra hverken VW skandalen, flygtningestrømmen eller fra terrorangrebene i Paris. Det franske INSEE s fremstillingsindeks faldt modsat som ventet for anden måned i streg og nåede dermed ned på 102 i november. Niveauet er dog fortsat rimeligt robust over niveauet i 1. halvår. Til gengæld steg produktionsforventningerne samtidigt ganske pænt til det højeste niveau i 4½ år. De to indeks peger tilsammen på en mere stabil udvikling i euroområdets ESI-barometer i november (offentliggøres fredag). Belgien: Erhvervstillidsindekset fra Belgiens centralbank steg uventet i november, og vi skal over fire år tilbage for at finde højere tillid. Storbritannien: CBI s indeks for detailsalget i november faldt overraskende tilbage i november og nåede dermed det laveste niveau i ni måneder. Således ventes det at være tegn på at julesalget i høj grad vil være koncentreret om næste måned, idet forventningerne til salget her steg markant sådan som det typisk er tilfældet i december. USA: Tillid peger på pause i ledighedsfald EUR: Tysk erhvervstillid op fransk ned For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. november 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,82% / indeks 1.018,57) endte i negativt territorium og fulgte dermed strømmen på de resterende europæiske aktier. Godt nok endte den amerikanske BNP vækst for 3. kvartal som ventet, men Tyrkiets nedskydning af et russisk fly gav negative vibrationer på de finansielle markeder. Af samtlige aktier i C20-indekset var der dermed kun fire aktier, som endte højere. Blandt disse var A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+1,40% / kurs ,00) efter meddelelsen om, at rederiet vil forsøge at hæve raterne på ruterne mellem Europa og Asien med 1000 dollar per tyve fods container (TEU) med effekt fra 1. december. Vestas (+0,16% / kurs 434,20) endte også højere efter vindmølleproducenten meddelte, at de har modtaget en ordre på 200 MW fra USA. I den anden ende af indekset endte Pandora (-2,66% / kurs 805,00) grundet negative udmeldinger fra den amerikanske konkurrent Tiffany omkring det amerikanske marked. Genmab (-1,12% / kurs 836,50) endte også lavere efter medicinalselskabet mandag efter børstid havde meddelt, at de havde besluttet at stoppe fase 3 studiet af kræftmidlet Ofatumumab til behandling af blodkræft. Renter Obligationsrenterne faldt fra morgenstunden i tysk og dansk regning. Med til at trække ned var øget geopolitisk uro, efter at Tyrkiet skød et russisk militærfly ned. Dertil kunne lægges at fransk erhvervstillid (INSEE) skuffede en smule. Men den tyske (Ifo) overraskede en anelse på opsiden, og obligationsrenterne endte dagen stort set uændrede. Senere på dagen modtog vi en række USAnøgletal, som viste sig fra en blandet men overvejende negativ side. Således skuffede CB s forbrugertillid samt Richmond Fed s indeks, mens BNP-væksten blev revideret op, varehandlen med udlandet var mindre negativ end ventet og boligpriser fra S&P/CaseShiller viste tegn på fornyet acceleration. USAstatsrenterne endte med små fald. Valuta JPY blev styrket tirsdag i overensstemmelse med den øgede risikoaversion i forbindelse med Tyrkiet nedskød russisk militærfly. Til morgen fik JPY lidt ekstra støtte fra en pæn stigning i Shoko Chukin -indekset. USD blev svækket en smule mod EUR efter en omgang blandede USA-nøgletal, hvor fald i forbrugertilliden dog nok dominerede en smule. EUR udviklede sig rimeligt stabilt, efter at tysk og fransk erhvervstillid overraskede henholdsvis positivt og negativt. GBP blev svækket mod EUR efter at CBI s detailomsætningsindeks faldt overraskende kraftigt. Det blev suppleret Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY USA CRB Stoxx EUR/USD Euroområdet Brent oil (1M fut) FTSE USD/DKK Danmark Gold (spot) S&P CHF/DKK Nasdaq GBP/DKK Hang Seng SEK/DKK Nikkei NOK/DKK Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q Aktuelt Q Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. november 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Royal Unibrew 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Nov P :00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Nov P :30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct :00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Discuss Draft Budgets :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov P :00 USA Existing Home Sales Oct 5.40m m 6.36m :35 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Nov P :00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q F 0.3%/1.7% %/1.7% 0.3%/1.7% :45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence Nov :00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Nov :00 UK CBI Reported Sales Nov :00 EMU EU to Release Proposal on Deposit Insurance :30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Oct -$61.900b -- -$59.14b(r) -$58.411b :30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 2.0% % 2.1% :00 Belgien Business Confidence Nov :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.55%/5.18% %/5.13% 0.61%/5.45% :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Nov (r) :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Nov :50 Japan BOJ Minutes for Oct 30 Meeting :00 Japan Small Business Confidence Nov :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Nov :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Nov :00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Sep 4.6% 4.5% 4.6% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 20. nov % :30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Oct 0.3% % :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.1%/1.4% %/1.3% :30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Oct P 1.6% % :30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Oct P 0.2% % :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 21. nov 270K k :00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Sep 0.4% % :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Nov P :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22. nov :00 USA New Home Sales Oct 500k k :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov F Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.2%/-3.6% %/-4.0% :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 4.8% % :00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Dec :00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Oct :30 Japan Jobless Rate Oct 3.4% % :30 Japan Overall Household Spending YoY Oct 0.0% % :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Oct -0.1% % :05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Nov :30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Oct % :00 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food, Energy YoY Oct % :45 Frankrig PPI (MoM/YoY) Oct %/-2.6% :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Oct % :30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q P 0.5%/2.3% %/2.3% :00 EMU Economic Confidence Nov /03 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct %/3.4% Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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