Kan danske mælkeproducenter konkurrere fremover?

Transkript

1 Kan danske mælkeproducenter konkurrere fremover? 29. september 2014 Anders Andersen, EDF STAR Denmark

2 Agenda 1. Kort om resultater ved danske mælkeproducenter 2. European Dairy Farmers 3. Sammenligninger resultater i EDF hvad kendetegner danske bedrifter 4. Hvilke lande vil vækste? 5. Konklusion

3 Heltids mælkeproducenter Kr. i resultat før skat og reguleringer Note: LandboSyds mælkeproducenter udvikler sig fra 28 køer flere end resten af landet i 2007 til 44 årskøer flere i 2013 Et naturligt valg for det professionelle landbrug

4 Mælkeprisen i Danmark September 2003 December 2004 Marts 2004 Juni 2004 September 2004 December 2005 Marts 2005 Juni 2005 September 2005 December 2006 Marts 2006 Juni 2006 September 2006 December 2007 Marts 2007 Juni 2007 September 2007 December 2008 Marts 2008 Juni 2008 September 2008 December 2009 Marts 2009 Juni 2009 September 2009 December 2010 Marts 2010 Juni 2010 September 2010 December 2011 Marts 2011 Juni 2011 September 2011 December 2012 Marts 2012 Juni 2012 September 2012 December 2013 Marts 2013 Juni 2013 September 2013 December 2014 Marts 2014 Juni

5 NULPUNKT MÆLKEPRIS 2013 ÅRSRAPPORTER Bemærk: Resultat før skat Ex. Ejeraflønning og afkast EK 100,00% 90,00% ,00% ,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% Hyppighed Kumulativ % 40 20,00% 20 10,00% 0 0,00% 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6 1,8 2 2,2 2,4 Mælkepris Et naturligt valg for det professionelle landbrug 2,6 2,8 3 3,2 3,4 3,6 3,8 Mere 5

6 EDF Cost of Production Comparison: Benchmarking dairy farms Source: EDF Cost of Production Comparison 2013, not representative dairy farms provided their farm records......referring to accounting periods beginning in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarter of 2012 and in the 1st quarter of 2013!

7 Næste EDF møde 22. okt. ved Outrup ved Varde

8 Kongres juni i Winterthur Schweiz

9 Godt at lære på tværs af grænser

10 EDF Europe: Costs, returns and results of milk production in EUR Ct per kg ECM, average all European EDF farms, Entrepreneur s perspective Source: EDF Cost of Production Comparison 2014, not representative EUR ct per kg ECM = 49.3 ct/kg COSTS by purpose = 43.9 ct/kg 36.5 AVG AVG AVG COSTS by cash/non-cash RETURNS, ex. decoup. paym. COSTS by purpose Quota costs Other costs Land costs Building costs Labour related costs Direct costs COSTS by cash/non-cash Calculated + interest costs Depreciation costs Cash costs RETURNS Other returns Public payments Animal returns Milk returns Negative Entrepreneur s Profit I (EP I) per kg ECM: -5.4 ct. Not profitable even including decoupled farm payments (3.2 ct/kg -2.2 ct/kg ). 289 European EDF farms, farms' accounting period starting in the 2 nd, 3 rd or 4 th quarter of 2012 or in the 1 st quarter of 2013

11 Samlede omkostninger og indtægter per 100 kg ECM DK BE UK NL IE FR IT ES PT SE AT CH PL CZ SK UA CAN Cash costs Depreciation Opportunity costs Total of returns

12 Forskelle i bedriftsstørrelser Herd size Forage area DK BE UK NL IE FR IT ES PT SE AT CH PL CZ SK UA CAN

13 Mælkeydelse kg EKM pr. årsko DK BE UK NL IE FR IT ES PT SE AT CH PL CZ SK UA C

14 Productionfaktor priser - Lønningsniveau og pris for jordleje Percentage of farms at different input price levels (279 farms in total) 124 Level of land costs, in EUR per ha >124 and 243 >243 and 451 > % 6 % 5 % 2 % Level of labour costs, in EUR per hour >10.6 and 14.7 >14.7 and % 8 % 11 % 2 % 7 % 9 % 6 % 4 % > % 2 % 3 % 17 % Kæmpe forskel I niveau på tværs af Europa

15 Arbejdsproduktivitet Vi er europamestre! DK BE UK NL IE FR IT ES PT SE AT CH PL kg ECM per hour CZ SK UA CAN

16 EDF national groups: Debts and interest payments, Debts in EUR/cow and interest payment (excl. redemption) in Ct/kg ECM, national group avg 6.0 Source: EDF Cost of Production Comparison 2014, not representative Real interest payments on debts, Ct/kg ECM DK 5.0 CAN NL 4.0 SE BE FR PT* PL DE CH* 1.0 UA* SK* IT* UK* ES* 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000 CZ* Est. dairy enterprise debts, EUR/cow Høj gælds- og rentebelastning i DK, CAN, NL and SE Farms' accounting period starting in the 2 nd, 3 rd or 4 th quarter of 2012 or in the 1 st quarter of 2013, *less than 10 farms in the group, Attention: Not all farms of the group provided the figures = different sample as for the other averages!

17 Profitability of milk production: EP I in EUR Ct per kg ECM, average and distribution in the national EDF groups Source: EDF Cost of Production Comparison 2013, not representative 45 Profitable ex. decoup. payments (EP I 0) Profitable in. decoup. payments (EP II 0) Not profitable Antal bedrifter EP I in ct/kg 0 CZ* PL SK PT* UK ES IT DK DE NL BE EU-new EU-old SE FR ES-org* NL-org* FR-org* SE-org* EU-old, organic Profitable and not profitable farms in each national group. CAN CH UA Non-EU markets Farms accounting period starting in the 2 nd, 3 rd or 4 th quarter of 2011 or in the 1 st quarter of 2012, * less than 10 farms in the group

18 EDF Europe: Costs and returns of milk production over time in EUR Ct per kg ECM, average 136 long-term European EDF farms, Entrepreneur s perspective BEP II Source: EDF Cost of Production Comparison 2014, not representative EUR ct per kg ECM CoP 2011 CoP 2012 CoP 2013 CoP /10 and /11 and /12 and /13 and 2013 COSTS by cash/non-cash Calculated + interest costs Depreciation costs Cash costs RETURNS Total returns Foder 2,6 eur cent Arbejdskraft + energi 1 eur cent Cash costs increased steadily in the last periods. BEP II increased further. 136 European EDF farms, farms' accounting period starting in the 2 nd, 3 rd or 4 th quarter of 2012 or in the 1 st quarter of 2013

19 Selected groups: Costs in the farms dairy enterprise, in EUR Ct per kg ECM, average of the European group + averages of the 25% best and 25 % less successful by BEP II Direct costs Labour related costs Building costs Land costs Other costs Milk quota costs Total returns Source: EDF Cost of Production Comparison 2014, not representative EUR/100 kg ECM AVG ++ 25% -- 25% 170 EDF farms from DE + NL + BE + FR + DK + SE, no organic farms, farms' accounting period starting in the 2 nd, 3 rd or 4 th quarter of 2012 or in the 1 st quarter of 2013

20 Selected groups: Returns in the farms dairy enterprise, in Ct per kg ECM, average of the European group + averages of the 25% best and 25 % less successful by BEP II Milk returns Public payments (coupl.), VAT bal. Total costs Animal returns Other returns Source: EDF Cost of Production Comparison 2014, not representative EUR/100 kg ECM AVG ++ 25% -- 25% 170 EDF farms from DE + NL + BE + FR + DK + SE, no organic farms, farms' accounting period starting in the 2 nd, 3 rd or 4 th quarter of 2012 or in the 1 st quarter of 2013

21 Kvoteoverskridelse i % - kvoteår 2012/ ,6 0,8 0,4 0,2 0,1-0,4-0,4-2,3-2,9-3 -3,6-3, ,5-7,4-10,1-11,7-11,8-13,8-14,3-17,5-19, ,7-23,7-26, ,3-55,3-60 Kilde: Europa-Kommisionen

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23 Dec Irland - Mælkeindvejning pr. måned 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Ireland EU

24 Irlands Food Harvest 2020 Visionen for Agri-food sector for next decade Ambitious growth targets milk volume: + 50% beef value: + 20% pigmeat value: + 50% SMART GREEN GROWTH Bæredygtighed er meget vigtigt Forbrugere og forbrugerbehov er centrale

25 Sammenligning Danmark/Holland Danmark Holland Irland Antal malkekøer i tusinde Antal ton mælk i tusinde Kg mælk pr. bedrift Antal bedrifter Gæld pr. ko < 1000 Indbyggere mio. 5,6 16,6 4,6

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27 Arla i UK Arla Foods gigantmejeri i Aylesbury ved London. Mejeriet er verdens største friskmælksanlæg med en potentiel kapacitet på 1,3 mia. liter mælk om året.

28 Konklusion Styrker: Danske bedrifter er moderne Vi har høj produktivitet og fødevaresikkerhed Gode klimaforhold til mælkeproduktion Plads til øget produktion (Areal) Udfordringer: Høj gældsandel Følsomhed ved udsving i økonomi Minimale lånemuligheder mange år frem 28

29 Område for positiv udvikling i mælkeproduktionen