Perspektiv på lav dansk produktivitetsvækst

Transkript

1 PRODUKTIVITET, REGULERING OG INTERNATIONALISERING indlæg ved Produktivitetskommisionens konference om internationalisering, konkurrence og regulering, 6 juni 2013 Jørgen Elmeskov

2 Outline Perspektiv på lav dansk produktivitetsvækst lavere end forventeligt? under alle omstændigheder god grund til at gøre det bedre OECD analyse: Konkurrence styrker produktiviteten OECD analyse: International åbenhed styrker produktiviteten 2

3 Forbehold Empirisk analyse nødvendigvis mere grov når mange lande skal dækkes til gengæld mere variation i data og politikerfaringer Man skal passe på med at fortolke bilaterale korrelationer som årsag-virkning sammenhænge 3

4 Danmark har lav produktivitetsvækst - men det skulle også forventes There has been uneven convergence in productivity levels over the last decade Average productivity growth over the past decade against the initial level Note: Labour productivity levels are measured as GDP per hour worked based on 2005 PPPs. Since hours worked are not available for BRIICS countries except Russia, an average of the hours worked per employee in the ten countries with lowest GDP per capita (including Russia) for which data are available have been used as a proxy. Source: OECD National Accounts Statistics (Database); OECD (2012), OECD Economic Outlook No. 92: Statistics and Projections (Database); OECD, Employment Outlook (Database). 4

5 Danmark har lav produktivitetsvækst - BNP/capita ikke så overraskende Predicted and actual gap in GDP/capita relative to OECD average, 2009 Observed GDP per capita gap in 2009 (in %) 70 LUX USA FRA GRC NOR BEL SWE FIN AUT ESP IRL KOR CHE ISL DEU JPN DNK NLD CAN ITA GBR NZL -30 PRT Overall GDP per capita gap predicted by the framework (in %) Source:OECD Department of Economics Working Paper, No.834 5

6 Danmark har lav produktivitetsvækst - andre lande catcher up på fx uddannelse Tertiary educational attainment, Percentage of population aged and Note: Users of the data must be aware that they may no longer fully reflect the current situation in fastreforming countries. 1. The reference year is 2009 for Brazil. Source: OECD (2012), Education at a Glance 2012: OECD Indicators. 6

7 Danmark har lav produktivitetsvækst - andre catcher up på fx. regulering Product market regulation Index scale of 0-6 from least to most restrictive A. Restrictiveness of economy-wide product market regulation Note: Users of the data must be aware that they may no longer fully reflect the current situation in fast-reforming countries. Source: OECD (2011), Product Market Regulation Database; Wölfl, A et al. (2010), Product Market Regulation: Extending the Analysis : Beyond OECD Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 799, OECD Publishing. 7

8 Danmark har lav produktivitetsvækst Læg ikke for megen vægt på at løse et mysterium Fokusér på hvad der kan gøres bedre Kan godt være et område hvor man gør det godt allerede Mere produktivitetsvækst er (næsten) altid godt Uanset hvordan man gør det i forhold til udlandet/historien Der bør være kontinuert fokus på muligheder for bedre produktivitet Har fået nogle lande til at etablere permanente produktivitetskommissioner (ex. Oz, NZ) Fodnote: Næsten fordi Vi kender ikke altid fordelingseffekterne af produktivitetsfremmende politik Der ikke er så meget ved produktivitetsvækst hvis hele gevinsten går til udlandet (ex. nogen ICT produktion) 8

9 Konkurrence styrker produktiviteten Kanaler (delvis overlappende) for konkurrence-venlig politik til at styrke produktiviteten X-efficiency Reallokering af resourcer Hurtigere catch-up til frontier/adoption af ny teknologi Innovationspres Og med rimelig IPR beskyttelse er der næppe grund til bekymring for innovation (a la Schumpeter) 9

10 Konkurrence styrker produktiviteten - evidens Figure 2. Patents per million of inhabitants and product market regulation 1 Logarithm of Patents per million of inhabitans 5 SWE 4 USA NLD 3 GBR 2 AUS IRL 1 0 JPN FIN DEU DNK AUT CAN NZL HUN ESP CHE BEL FRA NOR ITA KOR CZE -1-2 PRT GRC POL -3-4 Correlation coefficient t-statistic Product market regulation in 1998 TUR 1. The OECD summary index of product market regulation is from Nicoletti et al. (1999). Patents are defined as consolidated family of patent at EPO, USPTO and JPO by country of invention and priority year Source: OECD. 10

11 Konkurrence styrker produktiviteten - evidens Investment in KBC and product market regulations restricting competition Share of GDP; selected OECD countries, 2005 Note: Intangible investment to GDP is measured in 2005, while the policy indicators refer to either 2003 (PMR, EPL, Bankruptcy Law and Private Credit to GDP) or 2005 (Patent rights and early stage VC). Source: OECD calculation based on intangible capital estimates from Corrado et al. (2012) and policy indicators from the OECD (PMR, EPL and early stage VC), World Bank (Bankruptcy Law and Private Credit to GDP) and Park (2008; Patent Rights). 11

12 Konkurrence styrker produktiviteten - evidens Knowledge-based capital and spillover effects Selected OECD countries: Note: Labour productivity growth can be decomposed into the contribution of capital deepening and the contribution of MFP. The chart plots the contribution of KBC/tangible capital deepening to labour productivity growth against the growth rate in MFP. The correlations are robust to individually dropping outliers, such as the Czech Republic, Finland and Slovenia. Unlike in conventional growth accounting exercises, the MFP estimates are based on a value-added series that capitalises the full set of KBC indicators. * denotes statistical significance at the 10% level. Source: Corrado et al. (2012). 12

13 Konkurrence styrker produktiviteten - evidens OECD countries differ in their ability to allocate labour to the most productive firms Covariance across firms between firm size and labour productivity; log points; manufacturing sector in selected OECD countries in 2005 Log points; selected OECD Countries in More productive firms are on average larger than less productive firms More productive firms have less resources than if resources were randomly allocated Japan Norw ay Germany France Spain Finland Sw eden -0.7 Notes: the estimates show the extent to w hich the firms w ith higher than average labour productivity have larger employment shares in the manufacturing sector, based on the Olley and Pakes (1996) decomposition of the log level of labour productivity. In most countries, the covariance betw een productivity and employment share is positive, suggesting that the actual allocation of employment boosts manufacturing labour productivity, compared to a situation w here resources w ere allocated randomly across firms (this metric w ould equal zero if labour w as allocated randomly). Labour is allocated relatively efficiently in the United States and some large Continental and Northern European countries e.g. manufacturing productivity in the United States is boosted by around 50% due to the rational allocation of resources w hile there is considerable scope to improve resource allocation in most southern and eastern European countries. Europe-14 includes: Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Poland, Spain, Slovak Republic and Sw itzerland, and is obtained by aggregating the respective allocative efficiency indicators by each countries share in manufacturing sector employment. Source: OECD calculations based on firm level data from the ORBIS Database. See Andrew s and Cingano (2012). 13

14 Konkurrence styrker produktiviteten - evidens Allocative efficiency and framework policies Selected OECD countries in 2005 Product market regulations restricting competition Notes: Allocative efficiency measures the contribution of the allocation of employment across firms to manufacturing labour productivity in Product market regulation refers to the overall index of the OECD PMR for For details on the cost to close a business see slide 11. Source: Andrews and Cingano (2012). 14

15 Konkurrence styrker produktiviteten - hvor halter det i Danmark? Produktmarkeds-reguleringen er generelt pro-kompetitiv men der er stadig problemer Barrierer i visse sektorer (detailhandel, apoteker, advokater...) Standarder kan virke som tekniske handelshindringer Med meget stor offentligt finansieret service er det væsentligt at denne konkurrenceudsættes 15

16 Åbenhed styrker produktiviteten Kanaler (delvis overlappende) for international åbenhed (handel og investeringer) til at styrke produktiviteten Øget konkurrence Import af teknologi/know-how Erfaringer fra konkurrence på udenlandske markeder Specialisering Skala-effekter (specielt for lille land) Styrket innovation 16

17 Åbenhed styrker produktiviteten - evidens Additional capital attracted by a firm that increases its patent stock by 10%; selected OECD countries, Notes: The chart shows that the sensitivity of firm investment to changes in the patent stock varies according to the policy environment. All policy terms are statistically significant at at least the 10% level. For example, the sensitivity of firm investment to patenting is 35% higher when the EPL Index corresponds to the US value (i.e. the sample minimum), compared to when EPL is set to the Danish value (i.e. just below the sample mean). Sources: OECD calculations based on matched ORBIS-PATSTAT data. EPL is the OECD Employment Protection Legislation (EPL) sub-index with respect to regular contracts; investment in Early Stage Venture Capital (% of GDP) is sourced from the OECD; Regulation of professional services and Barriers to Trade and Investment are sourced from the OECD Product Market Regulation (PMR) Index; Bankruptcy Legislation is sourced from the World Bank and measures the cost to close a business; Strength of Investor Rights is sourced from the World Bank and takes into account the extent of corporate disclosure, director liability and ease with which shareholder can sue company officers. See Andrews and Criscuolo (2013) for details. 17

18 Åbenhed styrker produktiviteten - Danmark ikke specielt åben goods and services trade as a share of GDP (%) International trade openness and GDP 300 LUX EST SVN SVK IRL HUN CZE BEL NLD ISL AUT DNK SWE CHE FIN ISR PRT NOR CHL NZL GRC POL ESP AUS KOR DEU MEX GBR ITA CAN FRA TUR JPN Regression line (excluding Luxembourg) USA 0 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 5 5,5 log(gdp) (value, measured in PPP, 2005 million USD) Sources: OECD Economic Outlook 93 database and national accounts database; OECD calculations 18

19 Åbenhed styrker produktiviteten - Danmark ikke specielt integreret i internationale værdikæder Participation in GVCs, 2009 Foreign inputs and domestically-produced inputs used in third economies exports as a share of gross exports (in %) OECD countries Backward participation Forward participation 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Miroudot and De Backer (2013). 19

20 Åbenhed styrker produktiviteten - Danmark har åbent investerings-regime med undtagelser FDI Regulatory Restrictiveness Index Closed = 1; Open = OECD average

21 Åbenhed styrker produktiviteten - politik-barrierer er mest bag grænsen Non-manufacturing regulation and trade in services,

22 Udgangsbøn: også andre politik-områder 22

23 Udgangsbøn: også andre politik-områder Uddannelse Finansielle markeder Corporate governance Offentlig service Skattesystem Miljø-politik Innovationspolitik 23