The Green Power Plant Seahorn Energy

Transkript

1 The Green Power Plant Seahorn Energy

2 Agenda Seahorn Energy Hvorfor lagring? The Green Power Plant (GPP) Økonomien i GPP Fremtidige aspekter 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 2

3 Seahorn Energy Lille dansk virksomhed 3 års udvikling af energilagring Patenter indsendt ForskEl projekt i samarbejde med Rambøll GPP er teknisk og økonomisk mulig 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 3

4 Den grønne omstilling 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 4

5 Dansk Energi Hvor skal strømmen komme fra i 2020 når det er mørkt og vindstille? 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 5

6 Pumped storage 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 6

7 Offshore marked The market for storage will gradually increase, reaching approximately 10 billion annually by 2020 and offering strong first-mover advantages to a range of potential stakeholders Boston Consulting Group: Revisiting Energy Storage There is a business case feb /06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 7

8 Design filosofi 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 8

9 Green Power Plant Integreret vindkraft & Pumped Storage Potentiale: Bølger & Sol 2 km 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 9

10 Skalerbarhed jo større jo bedre Diameter: 2 km 1955 MWh Reservoir Cost: 632 mill. Diameter: 3 km 4146 MWh Storage: % Cost: + 46 % Diameter: 4 km 3770 MWh Storage: % Cost: + 94 % 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 10

11 Offshore Pumped Storage 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 11

12 GPP udjævning af vindkraft DK1 March wind power production with GPP shaving 2000 Power (MW) Hours 1 GPP (2 km) der udjævner al vindkraft i Vestdanmark 6/25/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 12

13 ForskEl Projektet Sammenligning af forskellige konstruktionsprincipper Rentabilitet af GPP i 2020 Construction concept Estimated construction time Estimated costs CDM Founded 2 years 1,063 M Gravity founded 2 years 1,392 M Steel pile wall months 632 M Embankment 2 years M 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 13

14 Væg af stålrør 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 14

15 Transport 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 15

16 Pile installation 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 16

17 Basis GPP specifikationer Example GPP Specifications Storage capacity 1955 MWh Pump-Turbine power 400 MW Wind turbine capacity 100 MW Reservoir diameter 2060 m Sea depth 25 m Active storage depths -25 to -10 m Active storage volume 63 mill. m 3 Round trip efficiency 80 % 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 17

18 Reservoir pris estimat Component Cost % Wall elements 483 M 48.4 % Transport 16 M 1.6 % Installation 128 M 12.8% Sealing 5 M 0.5% Pump turbines 168 M 16.8 % Power house 26.9 M 2.7 % Wind turbines 98 M 9.8 % WT foundations 43.6 M 4.4 % WT installation and cabling 29.4 M 2.9 % Sum 998 M 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 18

19 Indtægter Vedvarende energi Produktion of vedvarende energi Net Stabilisering Opretholde balance i elsystemet (systemydelser) Spot arbitrage Køb af billig strøm Lagring Salg når prisen er høj SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 19

20 Net stabilisering Ancillary services: 1. Primær frekvens kontrol (30 sek) 2. Sekundær frekvens kontrol (15 min) 3. Regulerkraft (hours) 4. Black Start 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 20

21 Spot arbitrage 60 Avg. Spot Price per hour for El-spot price /MWh Average buy hours Average sell hours 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 21

22 GPP indkomst Market Present day 2020 Trend from 2020 Primary reserve 3.3 M 3.3 M No growth Secondary reserve 5.5 M 5.5 M No growth Elspot trading 8-9 M 20 M M /year Regulating power 2 M 2 M No growth Manual Reserve 0.1 M 0.1 M No growth Wind power 53.1 M 53.1 M Drops to 20.8 M when feed-in is used. Then no growth. Disappears after 25 years. Sum 73 M 84 M 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 22

23 Spot indkomst fremskrivning 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 23

24 Cash flow 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 24

25 Intern Rente Internal rate of return IRR 25 IRR 35 Example GPP 5.6 % 6.6 % Contingency & management cost 4.4 % 5.5 % Present day GPP 3.8 % 4.9 % No growth after % 4.8 % 3 km Diameter 6.7 % 7.7 % 4 km Diameter 7.7 % 8.6 % 6 km Diameter 9.1 % 10.0 % 8 km Diameter 10.1 % 10.9 % Local material as fill material 5.8 % 6.8 % Larger Ancillary service market 7.6 % 8.6 % Lower Wind power subsidy 3.7 % 5.0 % New WT and 300 M scrap value 5.6 % 6.9 % Inkl. 70% lånefinansiering til 5% giver 4 km GPP: 8,6% 15,7% 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 25

26 GPP i Tyskland Internationalt perspektiv: Bedre indtjening på tysk spot marked 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 26

27 Andre aspekter ved GPP Forsyningssikkerhed ikke prissat Reduceret behov for transmissionskapacitet ikke prissat Transmissionstab ikke inkluderet i elpris, hvilket favoriserer transmission over lagring Net tariffer for energi lagring Backup kapacitet for vindmøller Optimering af anden elproduktion 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 27

28 Fremtidige aspekter Dannelse af konsortium Demonstrationsanlæg Kystnære demonstrationsprogram Forskellige forretningsmodeller 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 28

29 Konsortium Partnere: Rambøll Alstom Interesse Siemens Wind Power Energinet.dk Envision 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 29

30 Summary Behov for energi lagring Vedvarende energi produltion Forsyningssikkerhed Reducerede transmissions behov GPP er en konkurrencedygtig løsning GPP er økonomisk rentabel, IRR: 5-15 % Internationale perspektiver GPP konsortium 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 30

31 Spørgsmål? 25/06/2013 SEAHORN ENERGY Aps 31