BIG FUTURE 2025 VÆKSTSEMINAR 25. JUNI 2014 GLADSAXE OG FREDERICIA

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1 BIG FUTURE 2025 VÆKSTSEMINAR 25. JUNI 2014 GLADSAXE OG FREDERICIA

2 VELKOMMEN TIL BIG FUTURE 2025 VÆKSTSEMINAR NIELS DUEDAHL - CEO, SE OG INITIATIVTAGER TIL BIG FUTURE 2025 RASMUS PLOUGMANN - DIREKTØR, SE BIG BLUE

3 ORDSTYRER CARSTEN BECK, FORSKNINGSCHEF INSTITUTTET FOR FREMTIDSFORSKNING

4 BIG FUTURE VÆKSTSEMINAR 25. JUNI 2024 PROGRAM F G 08:00 Gladsaxe og Fredericia Tjek ind og kaffe med croissant 08:30 Fredericia Velkomst og introduktion af BIG FUTURE v. Niels Duedahl, CEO SE 08:45 Gladsaxe Megatrends og tendenser v. Carsten Beck, Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning 09:10 Gladsaxe Holdbare forretninger øger værdien mest v. Ditlev Engel 09:45 Gladsaxe og Fredericia Pause og netværk 10:00 Fredericia Case: Ardagh Group Sustainability Strategy v. Steffen Seehausen, Group Sustainability Manager, Ardagh Group 10:35 Gladsaxe Case: Carlsberg - Hvor langtidsholdbar er vores forretning? v. Jan Breinholt, VP Procurement Europe, Carlsberg A/S 11:10 Gladsaxe og Fredericia Pause og netværk 11:25 Fredericia Holdbar produktivitet v. Steen Hildebrandt, professor Aarhus Universitet 11:50 Fredericia Resilience and the organisation v. Jeffery Saunders IFF 12:15 Gladsaxe Opsamling og afrunding v. Carsten Beck, IFF 12:25 Fredericia Tak for i dag v. Niels Duedahl 12:30 Gladsaxe og Fredericia Frokost to go mulighed for netværk

5 GROUP: BIG FUTURE

6 MEGATRENDS OG TENDENSER CARSTEN BECK, FORSKNINGSCHEF INSTITUTTET FOR FREMTIDSFORSKNING

7 AGENDA

8 BIG FUTURE 2025 PROCES OUTCOME TRENDS 1. KEY FINDINGS USIKKER- HEDER SCENARIE BYGNING KONKLUSION OG ANBEFALING LEDELSES- RAPPORT 14/8 8/10 3/12 21/1 11/3 TBD DYBDEINTERVIEW OG NEWSFEED

9 ER VIRKSOMHEDERNE PARATE TIL FREMTIDEN? INDUSTRIES AND IN

10 GODMORGEN DANMARK

11 GODMORGEN DANSKERE

12 DET ER NU!

13 MINDSET

14 INDIVIDUALIZATION GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS HEALTH & WELLNESS IMMATERIALISM GLOBALIZATION COMMERCIALIZATION RESSOURCES ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES MEGATRENDS Drivers for Change DIGITALIZATION IT SOCIETY POPULATION DEVELOPMENT (AGING) URBANIZATION ACCELERATING PACE OF CHANGES 24-HOUR SOCIETY NETWORK ORGANISATION KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY

15 DEN FUNDAMENTALE DRIVKRAFT

16 - OG DET GÅR HURTIGT

17 DET HANDLER OM FORANDRINGER OG VÆKST

18 VI HAR BRUG FOR SCENARIER

19 VIRKSOMHEDERNE SKAL GØRE PLADS TIL FREMTIDEN

20 MULIGHEDER!

21 INDSIGTER FRA VÆKSTPANELET PART 1 I HVOR HØJ GRAD VURDERER DU, AT RESSOURCE-OPTIMERING OG SIKKERHED I FOR- SYNINGER BLIVER ET VIGTIGT INDSATSOMRÅDE FOR DIN VIRKSOMHED FREM MOD 2025?

22 INDSIGTER FRA VÆKSTPANELET PART 2 HVILKE KONKURRENCEPARAMETRE I FORHOLD TIL NUVÆRENDE OG POTENTIELLE KUNDER VIL DU VURDERE SOM DE DOMINERENDE FREM MOD 2025?

23 INDSIGTER FRA VÆKSTPANELET PART 3 HVILKE RAMMEVILKÅR OG TENDENSER I OMVERDENEN VIL DU VURDERE FÅR STØRST BETYDNING FOR DIN VIRKSOMHED FREM MOD 2025?

24 SPØRGSMÅL? 3 MINUTTER Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en med links til alle slides

25 HOLDBARE FORRETNINGER ØGER VÆRDIEN MEST DITLEV ENGEL FORMAND FOR ADVISORY BOARD, BIG FUTURE 2025

26 HVAD ER BIG FUTURE 2025?

27 HVORFOR ER BIG FUTURE 2025 RELEVANT FOR DEN ENKELTE VIRKSOMHED?

28 BIG FUTURES VHV MODEL

29 HVORFOR VHV NU?

30 FREMTIDEN Kilde: Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

31 DEN GLOBALE MIDDELKLASSE - DINE KUNDER Kilde: Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning

32 MANGE DANSKERE ER BANGE FOR FREMTIDEN Kilde: Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning Tidssyn 2014

33 VHV I RISIKO PERSPEKTIV

34 VHV I RISIKO PERSPEKTIV

35 FØRSTE SPØRGSMÅL TIL ENHVER CEO:

36 AMBITIONEN: BIG FUTURES VHV-CHECKLISTE

37 FRA MIN KRYSTALKUGLE TIL DIN VÆRKTØJSKASSE

38 SAMMENTÆNK DIN VIRKSOMHEDS VÆRDISKABELSE!

39 MIN DEFINITION PÅ DET GRØNNE

40 HOLDBARHED HANDLER OM PRODUKTIVITET

41 FREMTIDENS VINDERE - HAR STRATEGIER FOR FLG. 5 HOVEDOMRÅDER:

42 Kilde: Oxford Economics

43 VÆRDISKABELSEN FORØGES MARKANT VED GENTAGELSE AF TRANSAKTIONERNE - BILLIGT OG INTEGRERET

44 DIN VIRKSOMHEDS VÆRDISKABELSE SKAL ALTSÅ KOMME FRA ANDET END SELVE PRODUKTET

45 UDSKIFTNINGSRATEN I FORTUNE % Kilde: Nathan Furr, Big Business... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April

46 TESLA TOPS $30 BILLION AS MORGAN STANLEY BOOSTS OUTLOOK

47 VÆRDISKABELSEN MELLEM GM OG TESLA OMSÆTNING 2013 GENERAL MOTORS: Milliarder USD Indtjening 8.6 milliarder USD TESLA: 2 milliarder USD Tab på 74 millioner USD VÆRDI PÅ BØRSEN GENERAL MOTORS : 58 milliarder USD TESLA : 30 milliarder USD Værdiskabelse i VHV-modellen: Unik holdbarhed har en enorm værdi set fra et investorsynspunkt tænker I sådan hos jer?

48 ET TESLA-EKSEMPEL PÅ SAMMENTÆNKNING AF FREMADRETTET VÆRDISKABELSE: Kilde Financial Times 23. Juni 2014: Just what has Elon Musk given away? Henry Ford, the grandfather of the car industry and Tesla CEO Elon Musk, its current saviour (or enfant terrible depending on your point of view and stockholding) had similar views on spreading warm and fuzzy love around with rivals. If everyone is moving forward together, then success takes care of itself, Ford once said. A business that makes nothing but money is a poor business, another Ford pronouncement, is certainly a view shared by Musk who has said making electric cars successful is more important to him than making his company successful. Many reckon that Musk s act of generosity will not amount to commercial suicide. Some commentators even think that its a cunning business ploy dressed up as altruism if everyone copies Tesla s designs, he can sell them his batteries, which is where the big money is.

49 - You can t connect the dots looking forward; You can only connect them looking backwards

50 KONKLUSION VORES FÆLLES VHV-UDFORDRING skal løses via: SAMMENTÆNKNING I VÆRDIKÆDEN og DIT LEDERSKAB

52 PAUSE Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en med links til alle slides

53 CASE: ARDAGH GROUP SUSTAINABILITY STRATEGY STEFFEN SEEHAUSEN GROUP SUSTAINABILITY MANAGER, ARDAGH GROUP

54 Ardagh Group Sustainability Strategy Big future 2025 vækst seminar

55 Ardagh Group Overview 55

56 Our Vision Our vision is to be the preferred packaging partner to the world's leading brands. We will achieve this by: - Delivering customer innovation - Providing an inspirational environment for our people - Creating sustainable value for our business 56

57 Global Footprint Ardagh Group operates globally through two business segments; Glass and Metal packaging. In both segments, the Group has secured leading positions in the key end markets it serves. Americas Europe Asia Pacific Metal 9 Metal 45 Metal 8 Glass 16 Glass 20 57

58 Ardagh Group Footprint Glass Metal GROUP Sales * 2.8bn 2.0bn 4.8bn Production Facilities ** 98 Countries * Sales including VNA and after divestment ** Including two metal facilities currently under construction in North America 58

59 Facts & Figures 4.8bn 35 bn 20, Group Revenue Containers Employees Locations Worldwide 59

60 60

61 Key Group Customers 61

62 Sustainability Strategy 62

63 Global Core Issues - Materials on earth limited - Scarcity for oil based products - Limited availability for clean water - Increasing world population and parallel increased expectations for living standards - Growing energy and material demand - Growing demand for water & food - Aging people - Increasing waste volumes -Global warming -Social Imbalance 63

64 Specific Drivers for Ardagh Heavily increased expectations from customers Energy & Emission reduction Product and process innovation Social & Ethical control Product Stewardship Increasing legal requirements Carbon Emissions reduction Resource efficiency roadmap Air quality requirements Product stewardship requirements Waste legislation, etc. 64

65 Specific Drivers for Ardagh Public image Long term permit to operate with stakeholders Enhancing internal processes Sustainability to drive culture, efficiency, innovation and control Enhancing external governmental & regulatory affairs Driving position of the Industry Better responsiveness to legislative changes Better planning security for the business 65

66 Strategic Process SWOT Assessment Structures & Programmes Policies (ENV & CSR) Targets Monitoring & Reporting 66

67 Strategy Elements 67

68 Example: Ardagh Glass Holmegaard - Founded: Holmegaard Glasværks Taken over by: PLM 1997 / Rexam 1999 / Ardagh Employees: Numbers of furnaces: 2 - Annual production: approx. 700 mill. pcs. 180 t tons - Managememt system: ISO (Energy), ISO 9001, ISO 14001, OHSAS 18001, ISO

69 Example: Ardagh Glass Holmegaard Community Involvement Project: Waste Gas Heat Recovery In our process: MWh/a Drying and preheating Room and sanitary heating Supply to external: MWh / a District heat (1000 homes) Neighbour industries etc. Over t CO 2 saved (vs. decentralised heating) 69

70 70

72 CASE: HVOR LANGTIDSHOLDBAR ER VORES FORRETNING? JAN BREINHOLT VP PROCUREMENT EUROPE, CARLSBERG A/S

73 Jan Breinholt, VP Procurement, Carlsberg Group BIG FUTURE Gladsaxe 25 June 2014 Hvor langtidsholdbar er vores forretning?

74 Carlsberg Group i dag Nr. 4 Fjerdestørste internationale brygger 500 øl brands 119,7 m hektoliter øl solgt in m flasker per dag 66,6 mia DKK Netto omsætning i ,8 mia DKK EBIT i % EPS vækst (CAGR) fra 2005 til

75 Udvalgte faktorer der påvirker vores langsigtede bæredygtighed Konkurrenter Ejerstruktur Markeder Brands Produkter Omdømme Regulering Emballage Råvarer Energi & CO 2 75

76 EJERSTRUKTUR: Carlsbergfondet har vist sig at være en styrke Carlsbergfondet Free float 30% af aktiekapitalen 75% af stemmerne Carlsberg A/S Børsnoteret på Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen 70% af aktiekapitalen 25% af stemmerne Værn mod overtagelse Ambitiøs og risikovillig Køb af Orkla (2004) Køb af S&N (2008) Ændring af fundats for at øge kapitalberedskab gennem aktieemmission 100% Carlsberg Breweries A/S Datterselskaber 76

77 KONKURRENCEN: Vi tager del i konsolideringen af den globale ølindustri Vi ønsker at være en betydende aktør på de markeder, hvor vi har besluttet at være Det meste af den vestlige verden er fuldt konsolideret de store lokale bryggerier ejes af en af de fire globale bryggere To større akkvisitioner: Orkla (2001 and 2004); S&N (2008) 77

78 MARKEDER: Balance mellem modne markeder og vækstmarkeder Vesteuropa Østeuropa Asien Group 2013 % af samlet ølvolumen (2009: 43%) (2009: 44%) (2009: 13%) 2013 % af EBIT (2009: 41%) (2009: 52%) (2009: 7%) Full year result ended 31 December

79 BRANDS: +500 forskellige brands i Carlsberg Group

80 PRODUKTET: Øl er core men vi ser på relaterede kategorier 80

81 FALSK SANDT OMDØMME: Udfordringer og muligheder for øl-kategorien TYPISKE OPFATTELSER AF ØL Med til at bringe folk sammen ved uofficielle anledninger, som f.eks. sport En unik tørstslukker VORES MISSION At skabe en opfattelse af øl som en socialt accepteret, lav-alkoholisk drikkevare, produceret af naturlige råvarer af ansvarlige og dedikerede bryggere Lavet med kunstige tilsætningsstoffer ikke naturligt Har ingen sundhedsfremmende egenskaber i modsætning til vin 81

82 REGULERING: Regulering og afgifter er blandt de vigtigste rammevilkår for vores forretning Højere afgifter Ikke et effektivt redskab til at reducere alkoholmisbrug Hyppigt brugt som element til at dække budgetunderskud Salgs- og markedsføringsbegrænsninger Fælles spilleregler afgørende Strenge interne og industriregulerede standarder sikrer ansvarlig markedsføring Forbud forhindrer ikke uansvarlig adfærd Pludselige regulatoriske ændringer Gennemsigtighed og forudsigelighed afgørende Rusland som eksempel Vi arbejder målrettet med myndigheder og politikere over hele verden 82

83 RÅVARER: Maltbyg Maltbyg udgør kun 1% af verdens produktion af kornprodukter Klimaforandringer har reduceret maltudbyttet Stigende behov for fødevareproduktion Voksende forbrug i Asien Strategi Integration bagud i forsyningskæden Uddannelse af landbrug i vækstregioner mht. optimal gødning, optimering af udbytte Udvikling af nye hårdføre bygsorter Direkte kontakt til landbrug, for at sikre forsyning + sikre bæredygtig produktion, lokalt miljø og lokal økonomi 83

84 RÅVARER: Vand er en kritisk ressource Vandmangel er en stigende udfordring specielt i vores vækstmarkeder Carlsberg Group gns. 2013: 3,3 liter/liter (best in class) Stigende produktion => stigende vandforbrug Løbende reduktion af relativt forbrug IMPROVE EFFICIENCY DEVELOP NEW TECHNOLOGIES RESEARCH NEW VARIETIES WORK WITH OTHERS 84

85 ENERGI OG CO 2 : Løbende forbedring af nøgletal Tilgængelighed og pris på energi vil være konstante udfordringer Konstant fokus på øget energieffektivitet Carlsberg er i dag førende blandt de globale bryggere mht. energi- og CO 2 effektivitet (kg CO 2 / hl) Konstant pres fra myndigheder og andre stakeholders for at skifte til renere energikilder Visse vækstmarkeder har i realiteten kun få alternativer til kul i dag IMPROVE EFFICIENCY USE BY-PRODUCTS AS ENERGY SOURCE INVEST IN RENEWABLE ENERGY 85

86 EMBALLAGE: End-to-end CO 2 effekt emballage tegner sig for 45% 86

87 Sustainable packaging 87

88 Cradle to cradle Cradle to Cradle konceptet indebærer, at produktet er designet, så materialer kan genbruges i stedet for at blive til affald Produkter kan indgå enten i en biosfære eller en teknosfære 88

89 EMBALLAGE: Samarbejde med udvalgte leverandører mhp. at udvikle næste generation emballage gennem Carlsberg Circular Community Cans Coatings Glass bottles Shrink wrap Card board PET kegs 89

90 EMBALLAGE: Aluminumsdåser kan genbruges igen og igen 90

91 EMBALLAGE: eller de kan blive til noget andet 91

92 Konklusion Konkurrenter Ejerstruktur Markeder Brands Produkter Omdømme Regulering Emballage Råvarer Energi & CO 2 92

93 Læs mere online 93

94 Tak for opmærksomheden 94

96 PAUSE Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en med links til alle slides

97 HOLDBAR PRODUKTIVITET STEEN HILDEBRANDT PROFESSOR, AARHUS UNIVERSITET

99 RESILIENCE AND THE ORGANIZATION JEFF SAUNDERS HEAD OF STRATEGY AND INNOVATION, COPENHAGEN INSTITUTE FOR FUTURE STUDIES

100 Resilience and the organization Jeffrey Saunders 25 June 2014

101 At least 70% of the Fortune 1000 will be replaced by 2024 Companies respond by: Changing workplace strategies continuously Cutting costs, working longer hours Seeking protection in networks Increasing flexibility and shifting assets into managed cash flow through freedom from ownership Changing to a resilience mindset Source: Nathan Furr, Big Business... The End is Near: Why 70% of the Fortune 1000 Will Be Replaced in a Few Years. Forbes. 21 April Harvard Business Review s, Cracking the Code of Change, and Gallup Business Journal s, Most Change Initiatives Fail But They Don t Have To,

102 Resilience requires a new mode of thinking Looking backwards at your data won t show black swans or tail risks Experts are too locked into a certain way of thinking to challenge what they are seeing Many managers are not competent enough to look beyond data To have a chance to see disaster coming, you have to look beyond the data, ask challenging questions and be future savvy To act when the unexpected happens, requires leadership and the right organizational culture it requires resilience

103 Significance Resilience and what kills organizations Resource Availability Business Interruption Political Risk Δ Customer Preference Innovation Technology Shifts Competitor Shifts Reputation Terrorism Regulation Interest rates Δ Economic Conditions Hazards Compliance Credit Risk Foreign Exchange Likelihood Source: Torben Juul Andersen, SRM, 2006

104 Resilience the ability to mitigate and bounce back from the impact of shocks The Future of People The Future of Supply What are the future resource constraints? The Future of Security Resilience The Future of Supply The Future of Safety What new safety challenges do new technologies introduce? The Future of Safety The Future of Security What are the new challenges and how do we marshal the resources to solve them? The Future of People How do we develop the right skill-sets and attitudes in our populations?

105 Resilient organizations Explore: Develop multidisciplinary approach to the study and exploration on a constant basis Execute: Enact the business plan with upmost efficiency and effectiveness Engage: Employees and stakeholders in ways that best exemplify organizations strategies and need for agility Source: Photo Poptech, Climate Resilience Lab - Nairobi, Kenya, 2012

106 Approach to resilience will be affected by an organization s need for strategic agility and position in a value network Type of strategic agility Classical Leader Adaptive Visionary Characteristics Organization sets goal, defends position Organization can shape industry s development by placing big bets Organization must constantly refine goals and tactics Organizations can affect and be effected by high innovation rates Ability to plan High High Low Low Execution v. agility Execution high, agility low Execution high, agility medium. Must be able to divest quickly and efficiently if bets go wrong Agility high. Willing to pay a divestment premium Agility, high risk-taking Approach to leadership Approaches to resilience Strong managers and hierarchy Analytical opportunity seeking Brand enhancement, Focus on risk mitigation Strong leader focused on results and teams that compete against each other Analytical opportunity seeking Brand enhancement, desire to be best in class Employee engagement and collaboration Employee involvement Top-down initiatives meet bottom-up engagement Innovative risk takers Testing, willing to try new arrangements, strong openness to external involvement Partner involvement Focus on untested, groundbreaking solutions Approaches to outsourcing Policy-driven, focus on standardization, efficiency, risk mitigation Analytical, performancebased collaboration, acquisitional Team-orientation and interest in how services are delivered Partnering, testing, willing to try new arrangements, strong openness to external involvement Source: CIFS; ISS 2020 Vision: NWOW, 2013, Competing Values Framework, 1990, BCG s strategic agility, 2012.

107 Making Resilience Smarter - Configurable components for calibration (example from military) Cooperation Start with less critical functions to begin with; then as system gains momentum, build-up functions, including relating to criteria such as their criticality. Overcoming obstacles (i) More realistic (lower) level of ambition; (ii) Derive a more credible catalogue of minimum capability requirements --> greater consensus; then these (iii) Serve as an incentive to align priorities with collective (iv) Structurally and culturally, islands of cooperation should be developed between organizations with common interests Prioritization Start broadly with general priorities, then over time - as trust, standardised best practices, etc., develops/build up - increasingly add narrower, more specific, priorities Specialization (II) - pooling and sharing (e.g. relating to equipment, assets, etc.) 107 Specialization (I) - role and task sharing

108 Employees innovative abilities Create resilience within your organization How would you describe your organization? Lush undergrowth and colossus with feet of clay The higher level! 70% percent of the company doesn t get when CEO talks strategy and doesn t care Organizational arthritis The management has the employees behind them... way behind Management s innovative abilities Source: Model, CIFS. Harvard Business Review s, Cracking the Code of Change, and Gallup Business Journal s, Most Change Initiatives Fail But They Don t Have To, Harvard Business Review article, When CEOs Talk Strategy, Is Anyone Listening? and When CEOs Talk, 70% of The Company Doesn't Get It.

109 Resilience and the organization Jeffrey Saunders

111 OPSAMLING & AFRUNDING Bemærk, at du efter seminaret vil modtage en med links til alle slides

112 TAK FOR I DAG