Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 27. april 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der vil igen i dag og måske resten af ugen frem til torsdag være fokus på udviklingen med hensyn til situationen i Grækenland og spekulationer og nyheder om hvorvidt der er udsigt til at Grækenland får udarbejdet en detaljeret reformliste inden fristen udløber på torsdag. Rygterne går på, at forhandlingerne kører på højtryk, og ifølge den græske finansminister er der fremgang. EU-talspersoner har dog indikeret, at der fortsat er større knaster der skal overkommes. Alt i mens er der fortsat stor usikkerhed om landets finansielle situation, herunder om det kan udbetale lønninger og pensioner, som falder i denne uge. Ellers byder mandagen på meget få vigtige økonomiske nøgletal, hvor et par erhvervstillidsmålinger for april (Dallas Fed s fremstillingsindeks samt Markits service-indeks) i USA dog kan få lidt opmærksomhed. Sidstnævnte ventes at udvikle sig mere stabilt omkring 59,5 i april, hvilket dog fortsat er langt mere positivt end hvad ISM s tilsvarende indeks har peget på. PMI-indekset har dog udviklet sig bedre i overensstemmelse med forbrugertilliden, mens ISM ikke helt er kommet sig oven på et tilbageslag som sandsynligvis skyldes det unormale vintervejr. Ellers er det en uge, hvor der er rentemøde onsdag aften i USA, hvorfra vi desuden modtager ISM s fremstillingsindeks fredag samt Q1BNP-tal onsdag og CB-forbrugertillid tirsdag. Euroområdet byder ind med vigtige inflationstal torsdag, hvor der også kommer ledighedstal. Onsdag modtager vi EU-kommissionens ESI-barometer. Derudover har vi et interessant rentemøde i Sverige onsdag. USA: PMI mere optimistisk end ISM Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i fremgang verden over (minus Japan) på forventninger til fortsat lempelig pengepolitik, hvilket bla. ventes signaleret af Fed, BoJ samt Riksbanken i denne uge. USA-renter falder efter svage ordretal, mens tyske og danske renter er mere stabile. USD svækkes en smule. USA: Ordreindgangen på varige goder steg langt mere end ventet i marts med 4,0% m/m. Det skyldtes imidlertid især transportordrerne, og så man i stedet på kerneordreindgangen, var der tale om et nyt skuffende fald på 0,5% m/m samtidigt med at faldet i februar viste sig en del større end tidligere opgjort på 2,2% m/m. Det var 7. måned i streg at kerneordrerne faldt, hvilket ikke er set siden USA sidst var i recession. For 1. kvartal som helhed peger ordrerne på en yderligere opbremsning i væksten i de faste investeringer, og mon ikke mange har haft travlt med at nedjustere estimaterne for BNP i 1. kvartal, som kommer onsdag? Tyskland: Ifo-indekset steg en anelse mere end ventet i april til 108,6 fra forrige 107,9. Stigningen skyldtes dog især en større stigning i vurderingen af den aktuelle situation, mens forventningsdelen faldt lidt mere end ventet. Denne peger således på, at den økonomiske fremgang vi oplever i øjeblikket, vil tabe lidt momentum i anden del af 2015 sådan som ZEWindekset også tidligere har peget på. Grækenland: Officielle EU-talspersoner kritiserede i store vendinger den græske finansminister for at trække tiden ud, være uansvarlig samt at spille højt spil. Eurofinansministrenes formand Dijsselbloem udtalte fredag, at der fortsat er stor afstand mellem forhandlingsparterne om substansen i den græske reformliste. Den tyske avis Bild skriver, at PM Tsipras har forsøgt at overbevise Merkel og Dijsselbloem, at de skal afholde et krisetopmøde om ny hjælp til Grækenland. Belgien: Erhvervstillidsindekset fra Belgien centralbank skuffede med en stort set flad udvikling i april på -6,2. Indekset ses typisk som en god gennemsnitsindikator for den samlede udvikling i euroområdet. Tyskland: Bedring i vækstudsigter bremser op Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. april 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,86% / indeks 1.022,45) endte højere på ugens sidste handelsdag. Den positive stemning var primært drevet af det tyske IFO-indeks, som faldt ud til den positive side. I toppen af indekset endte Pandora (+4,10% / kurs 724,00) efter et par internationale finanshuse var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. DSV (+1,63% / kurs 224,80) fulgte god med efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og hæve anbefalingen og kursmålet på aktien forud for næste uges regnskab. Novo Nordisk (+1,34% / kurs 390,30) endte også højere forud for næste uges regnskab. Jyske Bank (+0,39% / kurs 337,30) endte også højere efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-1,30% / kurs ,00) efter fragtraterne for endnu en ugen i træk viste fald. Renter Det var småt med udsving i obligationsrenterne fredag. Først på dagen steg de tyske statsrenter i forbindelse med offentliggørelsen af et bedre-end-ventet IFO-indeks samt en let positiv stemning på aktiemarkederne. Senere på dagen faldt renterne imidlertid tilbage i forbindelse med nyheder fra EU-talspersoner tæt på Grækenlandsforhandlingerne. Disse anklagede den græske finansminister for at spille hasard og trække tiden. Dijsselbloem udtalte desuden at der fortsat var stor afstand mellem parterne. Det betød samtidigt at de græske statsrenter vendte rundt og steg efter de forrige par dage med fald. Dagen endte med små rentefald i tyske og danske statsrenter. Senere på dagen modtog vi USA-tal for ordreindgangen, og disse viste sig igen fra en svagere side end ventet pegende på svag investeringsvækst i 1. kvartal. De amerikanske renter faldt på de skuffende tal. Valuta EUR styrkedes pænt først på fredagen i forbindelse med en overraskende stor stigning i tysk IFO. EUR faldt dog tilbage på øgede Grækenlandsbekymringer, idet EUtalspersoner kritiserede den græske forhandlingsindsats i store vendinger. USD blev svækket efter en ny skuffende opgørelse over ordreindgangen på varige goder. GBP blev styrket, hvilket fortsat ses at være forårsaget af aftagende bekymringer om parlamentsvalget betydning for GBP. SEK blev svækket, hvilket kan skyldes udsigten til ny stimulans fra Riksbanken i denne uge. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP 1022,5 0,86 USD/JPY 119,0-0,570 USA 1,90-0,05 CRB 224,1 0,16 Stoxx ,4 0,30 EUR/USD 1,087 0,007 Euroområdet 0,16-0,01 Brent oil (1M fut) 65,1 0,88 FTSE 7070,7 0,24 USD/DKK 6,867-0,044 Danmark 0,29 0,00 Gold (spot) 1183,3-0,67 S&P ,7 0,23 CHF/DKK 7,199-0,024 Nasdaq 5092,1 0,71 GBP/DKK 10,428 0,032 Hang Seng 28447,8 1,38 SEK/DKK 0,795-0,004 Nikkei 19964,9-0,28 NOK/DKK 0,883 0,003 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,90 2,20 2,40 2,70 EUR/USD 1,087 1,08 1,04 1,00 Euroland 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,16 0,30 0,40 0,55 USD/JPY 118,9 124,0 130,0 140,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 1,00 1,68 2,05 2,10 2,30 USD/DKK 6,863 6,90 7,16 7,45 Danmark 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,29 0,35 0,50 0,70 EUR/DKK 7,461 7,45 7,45 7,45 Sverige -0,25-0,25-0,25 0,00 0,36 0,55 0,90 1,35 SEK/DKK 0,7955 0,810 0,828 0,876 Norge 1,25 1,00 0,75 0,75 1,41 1,75 1,75 1,75 NOK/DKK 0,8827 0,837 0,837 0,851 2

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. april 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Tivoli 1. kvartal Royal Unibrew 1. kvartal GN Store Nord 1. kvartal Jyske Bank 1. kvartal Nordea 1. kvartal Spar Nord Bank 1. kvartal BankNordik 1. kvartal Sydbank 1. kvartal Danske Bank 1. kvartal DSV 1. kvartal Novo Nordisk 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :30 Kina Industrial Profits YoY Jan-Mar % -0.4% :00 Tyskland Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.4%/-2.0% %/-3.0% :00 UK CBI Business Optimism Apr :00 EMU ECB's Constancio Speaks :45 USA Markit US Services PMI Apr P :30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Apr :00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Mar :50 Japan Retail Trade (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.6%/-7.5% %/-1.7% :00 Japan Small Business Confidence Apr :45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Apr :00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Apr :30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q A 0.6%/2.7% %/3.0% :00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.75%/4.7% %/4.56% :00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Apr :00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Apr :00 UK Nationwide House PX (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/4.2% %/5.1% :30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate % -0.35% % :00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Mar 4.2% % :00 EMU Economic Confidence Apr :00 UK CBI Reported Sales Apr :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 24. apr % :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr P -0.1%/0.4% %/0.3% :30 USA GDP (QoQ, annualiseret) 1Q P 1.0% 1.0% 2.2% :00 Belgien GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P :00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Mar 1.0/ 3.1%/12.0% :00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% :00 USA FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) % 0.00% :05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Apr :50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Mar P -2.4%/-3.3% %/-2.0% :00 Japan BoJ Policy Statement/Kuroda Press Conference :00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.4%/3.0% %/3.6% :45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Mar %/3.0% :00 Danmark Unemployment Rate Gross Rate Mar % 4.9% :00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Apr :55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Apr 6.4% % :00 EMU Unemployment Rate Mar 11.2% 11.3% 11.3% :00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Apr 0.0% 0.0% -0.1% :00 EMU CPI Core YoY Apr A 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% :30 USA Employment Cost Index 1Q 0.6% % :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 25. apr K :30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.2%/1.4% %/1.4% :45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Apr :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 26. apr :30 Japan Jobless Rate Mar 3.5% % :30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Mar 2.1% % :00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Apr :00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Apr :30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Apr :45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Apr F :00 USA Construction Spending MoM Mar 0.5% % :00 USA ISM Manufacturing Apr :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Apr F /2015 USA Wards Total Vehicle Sales Apr 16.90M M Jes Asmussen ([email protected]); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ([email protected]); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, ([email protected]) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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5 Contact information Capital Markets Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head, Chief Strategist Johan Sahlström Chief Credit Strategist Ronny Berg Senior Credit Strategist Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX Paul Betton Credit Analyst Macro Research Jan Häggström Chief Economist Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom Anders Brunstedt Sweden Eva Dorenius Web Editor Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Macro Research Tuulia Asplund Finland Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Macro Research Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Denmark Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Macro Research Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI Kari Due-Andresen Norway Marius Gonsholt Hov Norway Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen Gothenburg Per Wall Gävle Petter Holm Helsinki Mika Rämänen Linköping Fredrik Lundgren London Ray Spiers Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson Luxembourg Snorre Tysland Malmö Ulf Larsson Oslo Petter Fjellheim Stockholm Malin Nilén Toll-free numbers From Sweden to From Norway to From Denmark to From Finland to Within the US Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel Tel Fax Fax Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI Helsinki Tel Fax Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel Fax London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel Fax New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY Tel Fax FINRA, SIPC