MARKET REPORT ISSUE II 2018

Transkript

1 MARKET REPORT On behalf of Freja Ejendomme, Cushman & Wakefield RED facilitated the sale of five city properties that formerly were occupied by the University of Copenhagen.

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY COOLING OFF, BUT STILL SOLID! The investment market has experienced high activity in the recent 12 months period with an impressive transaction volume of DKK 84.6 bn compared to DKK 75.4 bn for the same period a year ago. However, in first half year of 2018, we have witnessed a lower activity, as the total transaction volume only reached DKK 33.3 bn compared to DKK 39.9 bn in H Thus, we are currently having a market which is cooling off slightly from the peak of Despite the latest deceleration in the activity, 2018's investment volume is still expected to be one of the highest in history. The Danish market for residential properties continues to be the most traded segment with an impressive 39% of the total investment volume in the last 12 months period. Our focus article in this report highlights the massive mismatch between supply and demand in student housing. This feature together with higher yields has increased investors interest in the segment. Our analysis, shows that the pipeline of new student housing showcases a significantly higher activity than ever seen before. However, we estimate that the planned new supply is still not enough to satisfy the demand. We have also included an 'Office Occupier Special' as we observe that this market seems to be changing, which stress the importance of finding the right tenant. We also highlight how we envision a future office space should be focused on, summarized into ten key trends. Lastly, we recommend our readers to visit our website at cw-red.dk to experience our dynamic analysis tool. The tool is continuously updated to show you the newest developments. Enjoy the report! Nicholas Thurø Managing Partner INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE 2017 H H1 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen City) 4.00% 3.75% -25 bp Investment volume in million 1,125 1, Vacancy (Copenhagen City) 6.80% 5.80% -100 bp RETAIL 2017 H H1 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen High Streets) 3.00% 3.00% 0 bp Secondary yield (Copenhagen Side Streets) 4.00% 4.00% 0 bp Investment volume in million INDUSTRIAL 2017 H H1 CHANGE Prime yield (Copenhagen Area) 6.00% 5.75% -25 bp Prime yield (Triangle Area) 6.25% 6.00% -25 bp Investment volume in million TRANSACTION VOLUME (BN DKK) 2017 Q Q2 DKK 85 BN ~ EUR 11.4 BN Residential Retail Industrial Other 2 / 35

3 CONTENT ISSUE II FOCUS... 5 MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OFFICE RESIDENTIAL RETAIL INDUSTRIAL TRANSACTIONS OCCUPIER MARKET TRENDSPOTTING - WORKPLACES OFFICE RETAIL RETAIL - FOOTFALL ANALYSIS APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION DANSK VERSION AF FOKUS ARTIKEL / 35

4 BOLVÆRKET ON TEGLHOLMEN Aberdeen Standard Investments has acquired 10,500 sqm of residential and commercial units in Copenhagen from the Danish pension fund PenSam. Cushman & Wakefield RED facilitated the sale. 4 / 35

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6 DANISH VERSION ON PAGE 31 ISSUE II FOCUS STUDENT HOUSING - AN ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OBJECT? Every year prior to the commencement of studies, it is discussed how students are going to find a home in the larger student cities. Looking solely at Copenhagen, numbers from 2017 show that the search for student accommodation is rather difficult as the coverage ratio only equals 15 percent of all students, whereas the coverage ratio in Denmark in general equals 23 percent. Even though a large pipeline of student housing is on its way, it will most likely not meet the already great demand. A combination of high demand from students, the opportunity for a higher yield and the uncorrelation to wider macro-economic movements, makes student housing an interesting investment object. KEY POINTS Mismatch between supply and demand Higher yield compared to traditional residential investments GREAT SHORTAGE OF STUDENT HOUSING Every year, the number of students increase. In Denmark, a total number of 272,033 national and international students are currently enrolled in higher education. Since 2010, the number of Danish students has increased by 23 percent and international students by 41 percent. The two largest university cities are Copenhagen and Aarhus with 91,009 and 48,644 students, which naturally results in a great demand for student housing. However, the issue is currently that the supply of student housing is significantly below the demand. In Copenhagen, only 15 percent of the 91,009 students are covered by the supply of student housing. The relation between students and student housing is a lot better in Aarhus, where approx percent of the students, have the possibility to live in student housing. Despite the fact that not all students prefer to live in student housing, the coverage ratio is significantly low compared to the total number of students. The issue is not only present in Denmark, as it is also observed in the rest of Europe. For instance, in Germany and France, the coverage ratio is merely 10 and 13 percent. Whereas it is even worse in countries like Italy, Portugal, and Spain where the coverage ratio is only 3-6 percent. GREATEAST SHORTAGE OF STUDENT HOUSING IN COPENHAGEN In Copenhagen, student housing has not been able to keep pace with the rising number of students. According to the Municipality of Copenhagen, 2,377 new student housing units were constructed in the period between However, Uncorrelated to wider economic movements Less strict construction requirements Natural upper rental limit STUDENTS & STUDENT HOUSING 100% 90% 80% YOUTH HOUSING Youth housing is subject to the Act on Supported Private Youth Housing which means that the occupier must be an active student who is either entitled to Students Grants or enrolled in a trainee program. In this relation, it should be noted that government grants are no longer given to private investors. DORMITORY Dormitories have the same requirements to occupiers as youth housing, but dormitories must also follow several allotment rules. They do not follow a first come, first served basis. They must instead take the students educational, economical, and social situation into consideration. STUDENT HOUSING In the article, we refer to student housing as both youth housing and dormitories. COVERAGE RATIO 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 30% 25% 10% 18% 19% 15% 12% 0% København Copenhagen (inkl. Lyngby-Taarbæk Lyngby-Taarbaek Roskilde Odense Aarhus Aalborg Frederiksberg) (incl. Frederiksberg) Studieboliger Student Housing Studerende Students Source: Danish Transport, Construction and Housing Authority FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 6 / 35

7 during the same period, the number of students increased by roughly 17,000 students, which only corresponds to a coverage ratio of 14 %. Thus, the already excessive gap between the number of student housing and students has only become larger. PIPELINE NEW PROPERTIES ARE ON ITS WAY, BUT IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO FACILITATE THE DEMAND Over the years, student housing has received a lot of attention, which can be seen by the pipeline in Copenhagen. In the years , it is expected that 24 new development projects will be built, which corresponds to approx. 6,000 new student housing units in Copenhagen. Although, the number of students has reached a fairly stable level and the student housing pipeline is greater than ever, it will still not be able to meet the demand. Kjeld Pedersen, Partner in RED, believes: Investors should already now take into consideration how and where the students wish to live in the future. From a long-term investment perspective, it is important to focus on creating high quality student housing with a good location and at a rent level the students can afford. STUDENT HOUSING SEEN FROM INVESTORS POINT OF VIEW Investors perceive the student housing segment as an attractive investment asset due to the current positive demographic development and the general lack of supply of student housing. In addition, student housing is non-cyclical, since people s decision to study is independent of the prevailing economic conditions. In fact, data from Cushman & Wakefield shows that several countries experienced an increase in the number of students in periods of economic recession. Moreover, the construction requirements of student housing are more lenient regarding open space percentage and parking, which tends to make regular residential projects more costly. However, the occupier demand is limited to one type of tenant, namely students. As a result, there is a natural upper limit to the rental level for student housing, due to a student s limited income. STUDENTS & STUDENT HOUSING IN COPENHAGEN % % % % % STUDENTS % 40% COVERAGE RAT % % % År 0% Studerende Students Studieboliger Student Housing Source: Statistics Denmark, Copenhagen Municipality, Danish Transport, Construction and Housing Authority FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 7 / 35

8 ISSUE II FOCUS In the example below, we presume that a student s potential income consists of a Students Grant, student loan, salary from a student job as well as housing subsidy. Based on these possible income sources, we have constructed three different income types for a student. Moreover, the rental level for an average student housing unit in Copenhagen is estimated to be approx. DKK 5,750 per month. Our calculation example shows that the rent burden is between percent of the disposable income. A student within income type I uses all four possible income sources, which results in a rent burden of 41 percent. In comparison, the rent burden in 2017 for an owner-occupied flat was 37 percent in Copenhagen (Nykredit s latest analysis). Hence, this indicates that future rental levels for student housing cannot increase significantly. The risk factors can be summarized as follows: The number of potential occupiers is limited to students, which means future rent level increases are limited Higher churn rate. More active management is required when investing in student housing compared to e.g. a regular residential property due to the higher churn rate as well as wear and tear of the property, which requires more administration Political risks since e.g. that the government regulates the amount of the Students Grant, which potentially could be reduced OUTLOOK We still believe there is good reason to be optimistic in relation to the investment market for student housing. Despite a future increase in the supply of student housing, it is still too limited to meet the high demand. As mentioned earlier, there is certain political risk factors associated with student housing investments. Even so, a recent government proposal suggests raising the salary a student is allowed to earn in addition to the Students Grant with an amount of DKK 12,000 a year. This gives students the opportunity to increase their salary without losing the right to the Students Grant, which will all things being equal decrease the rent burden. HIGHER YIELD INCOME SCENARIOS & RENT BURDEN The large shortage of student housing 80 % combined with the low vacancy risk seems to have increased the investor 70 % interest within the student housing segment. This has resulted in an increased number of investments in development 60 % projects and reconstruction of existing properties, especially in Copenhagen. The higher yield achieved on student housing in Copenhagen compared to traditional residential investments is one of the main investment drivers. Investments in student housing typically yields RENT BURDEN 50 % 40 % 30 % 61% 52% basis points higher than the yield on a traditional residential property all other things being equal. The excess return for student housing can be found in these extra risk factors associated with student housing properties: 20 % 10 % 0 % 41% INCOME TYPE I STUDENTS' GRANT, HOUSING SUBSIDY, INCOME, STUDENT LOAN INCOME TYPE II STUDENTS' GRANT, HOUSING SUBSIDY, INCOME INCOME TYPE III STUDENTS' GRANT, HOUSING SUBSIDY, STUDENT LOAN Sources: djoef.dk, borger.dk, SU.dk & Cushman Wakefield I RED FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 8 / 35

9 INCOME TYPE I AFTER TAX Students' grant Housing subsidy 943 Income Student loan Total Income Rent Rent Burden 41% ASSUMPTIONS STUDENTS' GRANT Students' Grant rate 2018 HOUSING SUBSIDY Housing subsidy is calculated by using borger. dk s calculate your rent subsidy platform. Inputs to the calculator are the following: 30 sq.m., 2 rooms, and 5,750 rent pr. sq.m. INCOME According to the trade union Djøf, a student on average works 15 hours a week and receives an hourly wage of DKK 137. This provides a net pay of DKK 4,709. STUDENT LOAN Student loan rate 2018 FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 9 / 35

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11 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW DENMARK CONTINUES MODEST AND STEADY GROWTH The Danish economy continues a modest and steady growth across the board with rising employment, low inflation, low interest rates, and healthy GDP development. Moreover, Denmark is doing well compared to the rest of Europe and is perceived by many foreign investors as a safe haven for commercial real estate investments due to the political and financial stability and the lucrative mortgage opportunities which makes leveraged returns on real estate investment amongst the highest in Europe. economic development. real estate, especially in the largest cities Aarhus and Copenhagen. The price As a consequense, the unemployment development is also a reflection of a rate has declined to 4.40% of the workforce between the age of 16 and 67. general urbanization trend in Denmark. However, in recent months, we have seen The strong employment, rising wages a stall in apartment sales in the larger and low-interest rates are also reflected cities and growth in suburb villas. in the continued rising prices on private REAL GDP DEVELOPMENT (QUARTER-ON-QUARTER) SEASONLY ADJUSTED The inflation rate in Denmark is currently at approx. 1.10%, which is a full percentage point lower than the European average, with only Greece and Ireland coming in at lower rates than Denmark. Inflation rates are rising across Europe caused by the fluctuating oil prices, which also drove the Danish inflation to 1.10% in July from 0.7% in May. Interest rates in Denmark remain at historically low levels. This ongoing trend has surprised many, however, doubt amongst private real estate buyers is reflected in the choice of loan types, as we in the past few months have observed an increase in fixed-rate loans, compared to the cheaper variable rate loans. This is a clear indication from new homeowners, that they do not believe in the continued low-interest rates and are therefore trying to mitigate interest rate risk. 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% -0.50% -1.00% -1.50% 2.40% 0.90% 0.60% 0.40% 0.30% 2017 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2-0.80% -1.10% Source: Statistics Denmark, Association of Danish Mortgage Banks and The Danish National Bank Employment in Denmark continues to increase and has, according to the latest figures, reached the highest level in Danish history with approx. 2,747,700 people in employment. The employment rate in Denmark has been steadily increasing from late 2012, and in the past 12 months increased by 50,700 people which is a strong indication of the positive Danish KEY VARIABLE A YEAR AGO MOST RECENT TREND GDP Growth Rate y/y 3.81% 1.73% Inflation Rate y/y 1.70% 1.10% Unemployment Rate - Denmark 4.60% 4.40% Unemployment Rate - Copenhagen Region 4.50% 4.40% 10 year Government Bond 0.36% 0.33% Short Term Mortgage Rate - 1 and 2 year bonds -0.65% -0.50% Long Term Mortgage Rate - 30 year bonds 2.34% 2.08% FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 11 / 35

12 HERNINGCENTRET Behind the newly formed joint venture 'Danske Shoppingcentre', stands ATP Ejendomme and Danica Ejendomme, which with the acquisition of HerningCenteret will now own a total of 17 shopping centers. Cushman & Wakefield RED facilitated the sale. 12 / 35 FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX

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14 INVESTMENT MARKET - OFFICE HIGH INVESTMENT VOLUME IN H Investment activity in the office segment reached approx. 9.6 bn in H1 2018, which is the highest H1 volume, we have ever registered. The office segment contributed with over one-third of the total transaction volume in H1 2018, which is also significant. In the last 12 months, the volume was mainly underpinned by real estate companies, which dominated with 44% of the total transaction volume. Furthermore, Danish investors were the most active as they were behind 59% of the activity. The transaction activity in H1 was propped by DADES acquisition of Coop Invests portfolio in Viby, whereas an estimated DKK 1.3 bn referred to the office segment. Furthermore, BankInvest acquired 10% of PFA Ejendomme s commercial portfolio. Over the last 12 months, we have observed an increase in the popularity of transactions with office properties focused on shared workspaces and serviced offices, and as a result, we have seen an expansion of this market, although it is hard to assess the actual demand on this market, due to non-disclosed information. INVESTOR BREAKDOWN Q Q Others 8% Private Investors Real Estate Companies 11% 44% Property funds 15% Source: Cushman & Wakefield RED 19.2 BN DKK Institutional Investors 22% DANISH INVESTORS - 59 % FOREIGN INVESTORS - 41 % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Prime office yield levels appear to have stabilized around 3,75% for prime assets in Copenhagen. We expect this level to endure in the short term. PRIME YIELDS SUBAREA Q Q Q Copenhagen City (CBD) 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% Copenhagen E & W 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% Frederiksberg 5.50% 5.00% 4.50% Harbour Areas 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% South Harbour 6.00% 5.50% 5.50% Ørestad 5.50% 5.50% 5.50% Copenhagen N & NW 6.50% 6.00% 5.75% South and West of Copenhagen 7.25% 7.00% 6.75% North of Copenhagen 5.25% 5.00% 5.00% FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 14 / 35

15 INVESTMENT MARKET - RESIDENTIAL INVESTORS SEE OPPORTUNITY OUTSIDE OF COPENHAGEN The residential segment, which historically has been the most in-demand real estate segment in Denmark, is once again the most traded with a transaction volume of DKK 37.0 bn in the last 12 months. It is an immense increase of 45% from the 12 month period a year ago, and is still underpinned by the high activity in H In contrast to prior years, the share of Danish and foreign investors contribution is more evenly dispersed. The transaction volume in H reached DKK 13.1 bn and was supported by property funds who contributed with 37% of the volume, followed by real estate companies with 36% of the volume. Copenhagen has always been the preferred area for residential investments, but for the first time, investments outside of Copenhagen accounted for more than half of the total transaction volume. Investments outside of Copenhagen accounted for 54% in 2018, while the share was only 40% and 19% in 2017 and 2016, respectively. The most active investors in H were Heimstaden, Blackstone and Niam, who together accounted for 51% of the total transaction volume of DKK 13.1 bn. The investment volume was especially propped by Heimstadens purchase of FB Gruppen s portfolio of 489 residential units located in Grønttorvet and Teglholmen for DKK 1.2 bn. INVESTOR BREAKDOWN Q Q Private Investors 21% Real Estate Companies 36% Institutional Others Investors 3% 3% Property funds 37% 37.0 BN DKK DANISH INVESTORS - 42 % FOREIGN INVESTORS - 58 % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Cushman & Wakefield RED PRIME MARKET RENT DKK/SQM PRIME YIELDS SUBAREA Q SUBAREA Q Copenhagen City 2,000-2,200 Copenhagen E, W & N 1,700-1,900 Frederiksberg 2,000-2,200 North Harbour 2,000-2,200 Copenhagen Area - rent control % Copenhagen Suburb - rent control % Copenhagen Area - market rent 3.40% Copenhagen Suburb - market rent 4.50% South Harbour 1,600-1,800 Copenhagen S 1,500-1,700 North of Copenhagen 1,700-1,900 FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 15 / 35

16 INVESTMENT MARKET - RETAIL INCREASING INTEREST FROM DANSIH INVESTORS The retail segment has experienced an increased interest from Danish investors, as the transaction volume has increased from a year ago. As seen on the pie chart to the right, the transaction volume from Q to Q was DKK 17.9 bn, thus more than twice the transaction volume recorded in the same period the year before. Danish investors contributed with 61% of the transaction volume, which is a big increase from only contributing with 29%, the year before. However, the transaction volume in the most recent 12 months period was still significantly affected by the record-breaking deal by the Danish institutional investor: ATP Real Estate purchase of a 50% stake in Danica s Shopping Center portfolio of DKK 6.9 bn. In H1 2018, the invesment activity reached DKK 4.7 bn. with Danish investors accounting for 51% of the total volume compared to only 22% in the same period in High-street assets were in high demand in H1 2018, as a total of four high-street assets changed owners. Hines acquired two assets from Freja Ejendomme on Købmagergade and Købmagergade 50 for approx. 900 M, while the German property fund, Aachener Grundvermögen acquired Købmagergade 45/47 for 565 M. Lastly, Italian Generali made their first investment in Copenhagen when they acquired Købmagergade 39. The prime yield level in Copenhagen has been stable at around 3.00% since Q and is expected to remain stable in the short term. This yield level mainly reflects high-street assets. INVESTOR BREAKDOWN Q Q Others Private Investors 2% 7% Real Estate Companies 10% 17.9 Property Funds 34% Institutional Investors 47% DANISH INVESTORS - 61 % FOREIGN INVESTORS - 39 % 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Source: Cushman & Wakefield RED PRIME YIELDS BN DKK STREET/SUBMARKET Q Q Q Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet) 3.50% 3.00% 3.00% Strøget Area 4.75% 4.00% 4.00% Østerbrogade 5.50% 5.25% 5.25% Nørrebrogade 5.75% 5.50% 5.50% Købmagergade 3.50% 3.00% 3.00% Lyngby 5.50% 4.75% 4.75% SHOPPING CENTRES Copenhagen 4.50% 4.00% 4.00% FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 16 / 35

17 INVESTMENT MARKET - INDUSTRIAL PRIVATE INVESTORS INCREASES THEIR ACTIVITY During the first half year of 2018, we have seen a steady investment activity in the industrial and logistic sector. The total transaction volume reached DKK 2.4 bn in H1 2018, which compared to recent years indicates a steady development. Throughout the recent year, Danish investors accounted for approx. 54% of the total transaction volume in this segment with property funds being the most active investors. This is a significant increase in Danish investors share of the market compared to last year, where 75% of the total transaction volume was carried out by foreign investors. INVESTOR BREAKDOWN Q Q Others 9% Institutional Investors 11% 3.9 BN DKK Property Funds 37% Private investors have risen from approx. 10% contributing in transaction volume in 2017 to approx. 23% in The volume of trades done by private investors' averages at the same size as last year. However, the number of transactions is noticeably increased. Real Estate Companies 20% Private Investors 23% The transaction activity in H1 was DANISH INVESTORS - 54 % FOREIGN INVESTORS - 46 % propped up by Swedish Snellman Properties AB s acquisition of Project Kappa that includes various properties spread across Jutland and Zealand. Furthermore, American HIG Capital acquired two industrial properties. Source: Cushman & Wakefield RED 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Prime yields for modern logistics properties with long leases are facing a light downward pressure. Prime yields in the Copenhagen area are now at a level of 5.75% while the Triangle area in Jutland levels at approx. 6.00%. PRIME MARKET RENT DKK/SQM SUBAREA Q Copenhagen Area 600 Triangle Area 475 Aarhus Area 450 Modern logistics properties with long leases PRIME YIELDS SUBAREA Q Copenhagen Area 5.75% Triangle Area 6.00% Aarhus Area 6.25% Modern logistics properties with long leases FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 17 / 35

18 KØBERMAGERGADE 50 SCENARIO ILLUSTRATION The former university building on Købmagergade has many development posibilities. Aarstiderne Arkitekter drew up this court yard environment in a potential hotel conversion scenario. 18 / 35 FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX

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20 TRANSACTIONS RESIDENTIAL STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME Pensam residential portfolio Denmark Q3 46, Institutional investor Pensam & TopDanmark Property fund Core Bolig E. & S. Olesens fund portfolio CPH Area Q3 21,529 Est. 538 Other Erik & Susanna Olesens Almenvelgørende fund Property fund Blackstone Dalgas Boulevard 5-7 Frederiksberg Q3 10, User Andelsforeningen Thyra Danebod Real estate company Heimstaden Frederiksberg Alle 32 Frederiksberg Q3 2, Private investor Private investor Institutional investor PFA Ejendomme A/S Ib Schønbergs Allé 1 Valby Q3 7,400 Est. 315 Private investor Koncenton Real estate company DFI (Deutsche Finance International) Gearhuset Valby Q3 9,298 Est. 280 Property fund Europa Capital Property fund Patrizia Project Pecunia CPH Area Q2 21,038 Est. 600 Institutional investor Jyske Bank Property fund Blackstone Ringertoften 10 m.fl. CPH NW Q2 28, User Ringertoften A/B Real estate company Heimstaden Omøgade 3-5 m.fl. CPH E Q2 11, Real estate company Domusnova Property fund KFI Biblioteksparken Aarhus Q2 11,800 Est. 325 Developer Developer Property fund Patrizia Kildevældet 3-7 Aalborg Q2 6,042 Est. 155 Private investor Private investor Private investor Koncenton Søren Frichs Vej 51 Aarhus Area Q2 9, Private investor Private investor Private investor Private investor Kordegården Aarhus Area Q2 14, Private investor Johnny Bihl Property fund Niam Herning Sky Herning Q2 13,316 Est. 206 Private investor Private investor Institutional investor PFA Pension Randers Kaserne - Dannevirkevej 20 Randers Q2 8,375 Est. 151 Developer By i byen Institutional investor PFA Ejendomme A/S Residential portfolio Viborg Q2 9,360 Est. 164 Private investor Private investor Real estate company Admiral Capital Jagtvej 113 CPH N Q2 3, Private investor Private investor Property fund Blackstone Nørre Farimagsgade 66 CPH City Q2 3, Private investor Private investor Real estate company Heimstaden St. Peder Stræde 9 CPH City Q2 1, Public institution Freja Ejendomme A/S Private investor Private investor Bispetorvet 1-3 CPH City Q2 3, Public institution Freja Ejendomme A/S User Niels Brock Studiestræde 34 CPH City Q2 3, Public institution Freja Ejendomme A/S Private investor Private investor OFFICE STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME Marmormolen North Harbor Q3 40,000 1,600 User PwC Real estate company Jeudan Fairway house, G4S HQ, IBM HQ, Sundhedshus Vanløse CPH Area Q3 34, Property fund Niam Real estate company Klövern house, G4S HQ, IBM HQ, Aarhus Area Q2 80,958 1,300 Developer Coop Invest Real estate company Dades Sundhedshus Vanløse Kolding Q2 18,929 Est. 341 Private investor Private investor Property fund Niam Klampenborgvej 205 Lyngby Q2 24, Other BRFkredit Institutional investor PFA Ejendomme A/S Enigheden - Lygten CPH NW Q2 16, Property fund Niam Real estate company Obel-LFI Ejendomme Stoltenbergsgade 11 CPH W Q2 3, Public institution Københavns Kommune Real estate company M. Goldschmidt Holding Meterbuen 27 Skovlunde Q2 17, Other Nordania Leasing Real estate company Wihlborgs A/S Finsensvej 15 Frederiksberg Q2 5, Property fund Property Fund Private investor Private investor Codanhus CPH W Q1 41,000 1,440 Property fund Dades Real estate company Klövern FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 20 / 35

21 INDUSTRIAL STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME Kystvejen 24 Kastrup Q3 28, User Københavns Lufthavne A/S Property fund Palm Capital Brunagervej 2 Aarhus Area Q3 48, User Coop Danmark User Hilton Foods Danmark Danske Fragtmænd Portfolio Denmark Q3 184,582 1,200 Property fund Aberdeen Standard Investments Real estate company W.P. Carey Naverland 22A Glostrup Q2 19, Private investor Private investor Private investor Sextus Next ApS Tingvejen 4 Vojens Q2 28, Private investor Schou Ejendomme A/S Real estate company HP Schou A/S RETAIL STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR TYPE VENDOR NAME BUYER TYPE BUYER NAME Herningcentret Herning Q3 30,000 Est. 1,000 Private investor Private investor Property fund Danske Shoppingcentre Brogade 7 Køge Q3 7,300 Est. 146 Private investor Private investor Private investor Private investor Coop Portfolio - Mega Aarhus Area Q2 36, Developer Coop Invest Real estate company Dades Syd (retail part) Købmagergade 44, 46, 50 CPH City Q2 20, Public institution Freja Ejendomme A/S Property fund Hines Frederiksberggade 1A CPH City Q2 1, Private investor Private investor Property fund Thylander Gruppen Søndergade 15 Aarhus Q Private investor Private investor User Arbejdernes Landsbank LAND STREET NAME PURPOSE LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) PRICE PER SQM. OF BUILDING RIGHT PRICE (M DKK) VENDOR NAME BUYER NAME Istanbulgade 1 Hotel North Harbor Q2 25,145 7, Skejbyvej 29 Office Aarhus Area Q2 52,000 3, Rubinolavej 2 Residential Valby Q2 15,552 5, FB Gruppen By og Havn (Udviklingsselskabet By & Havn I/S) Professionshøjskolen VIA Universit KPC A. Enggaard A/S & PKA Sygeplejerskernes Ejendomsaktieselskab Daugbjergvej Mixed Use Aarhus Q2 70,000 4, Ferguson Properties PensionDanmark Gittervej Office Nordhavn Q2 28,000 Est. 8,000 Est. 224 By og Havn (Udviklingsselskabet By & Havn I/S) Stigsborg Havnefront (51%) Residential Nørresundby Q2 204,000 Est. 1,165 Est. 238 Aalborg Kommune PWC PFA Pension & A. Enggaard A/S Høiriisgardsvej 3 Residential Aarhus Area Q2 41,000 4, Tulip Food Company A/S P/S PKAE Ejendom Bregnegårdsvej Residential Charlottenlund Q2 15,000 Est. 4,500 Est. 68 DSB Bonava Sundkaj 39 Residential North Harbor Q2 7,684 8, By og Havn (Udviklingsselskabet By & Havn I/S) CapMan FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 21 / 35

22 60% 32% 32% 21% 29% 15% 11% THEODORA HOUSE IN CARLSBERG BYEN Theodora Hus is an upcoming property in Carlsberg Byen a flourishing area of Copenhagen. The design of the building combines architectural tendencies from the past with those of the present. Theodora Hus offers available office space of 130 2,878 sqm. The offices will be ready for occupancy by Q Contact Cushman & Wakefield RED for more information at office@cw-red.dk 22 / 35 FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX

23 OCCUPIER MARKET 23 / 35

24 TRENDSPOTTING - WORKPLACES The key strategic challenges in Nordic corporations still involve attracting and retaining talented employees while enhancing their productivity through innovation and operational excellence. These issues are being solved by welcoming the gig-economy which involves allowing remote and flexible working practices. Concurrently, businesses continuously look for ways to reduce occupancy costs. This has raised the issue of focusing on utilization which means securing that physical spaces are utilized efficiently and thereby minimizing costs. The general workplace is in for tremendous changes moving forward, and future offices are projected to be much more efficient to meet the expectations of millennials and upcoming generations shaping the workplaces of tomorrow. Technology is evolving at an inexplicable speed and redefining the workplace which allows employees to work anywhere. This is resulting in businesses reconsidering their real estate strategy around more flexible options and prepare for the significant changes in the office environment, such as remote work becoming more prevalent. Are you wondering what a future office will look like? Below are ten key trends that summarize how we envision the look of a future office. 1: COGNITIVE BUILDINGS Combining big data from 'Internet of Things' and sensors with machine learning allows for improved utilization and user experience. 2: WELLBEING The wellbeing phenomenon, and eroding work and life boundaries, requires an improved understanding of its strategic importance and implications for the built environment. 3: COMMUNITY Curate the experience by being part of something greater. It includes quality dining, convenience service, wellness amenities community spaces and onsite events with access for both tenants and the public. 4: CSR Millennials attention to CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) requires corporates to review their policies. As a tool to attract and retain talent, CSR in the built and working environment becomes a strategic imperative. FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 24 / 35

25 5: URBAN TECH ENVIRONMENTS The location has a direct impact on all top C-suite challenges: access to talent, ability to innovate, strong customer relationships, operational excellence, and sustainability. 6: CO-WORKING Driven by flexibility requirements, resource utilization, knowledge sharing, and Millennials preference for access economy work will increasingly take place in social surroundings and co-working spaces. 7: GIG WORKERS Consultants, contractors, freelancers, and temp workers create flexibility, and change the corporate landscape and how we work. 8: VIRTUAL & AUGMENTED REALITY Improved virtual meeting facilities can reduce the need for face-to-face interactions and support work anywhere and anytime. Possibilities exist for virtual tours and projection of scale models. 9: ROBOT WORKERS Security, room delivery, concierge, receptionist, autonomous cleaning, and property maintenance services - both humanoid and non-humanoid robots are gradually able to handle more building and service tasks. 10: BLOCKCHAIN Where FinTech and PropTech meet - blockchain has the potential to increase the transparency, efficiency, and liquidity of rental and real estate transactions. FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 25 / 35

26 OCCUPIER MARKET - OFFICE INCREASING INTEREST FOR SHARED OFFICES Throughout 2018, there has been an increasing demand from small and medium-sized companies for square meter flexibility and shorter non-termination periods. These demands combined with a continuously growing interest in multi user properties with shared facilities have increased coworking office spaces. This development in the occupier market is well-reflected in the significant leases of the first half of The three coworking office providers, Ordnung, Spaces, and Coworking Plus ApS leased a total of sqm in the first two quarters of the year sqm in Odense C, the largest city on the island of Funen, and sqm in Copenhagen. The vacancy rates in both Copenhagen City and the Copenhagen Area have also been stabilized in the last year and now lies around 5.8% and 7.5% respectively. In Greater Copenhagen, the rent level has seen an overall increase over the last year. Due to the rent levels in Copenhagen City and Copenhagen Harbour Area being significantly higher than the rest of Copenhagen, we have seen an increased interest in offices in the rest of Copenhagen. This has resulted in significant increases in the rent-levels in these areas. Companies, seeking towards the city, in order to find a sufficient workforce, results in an overall increase in rent levels as well as lower supply of vacant office space in Greater Copenhagen. SIGNIFICANT LEASES STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) NEW TENANT Ny Carlsberg vej 140 CPH W Q ,543 Spaces Banevænget 13 Birkerød Q ,061 Lexmark Ørestads Boulevard CPH S Q Tobaco company Bredebjergvej 1 Taastrup Q ,436 Kuehne & Nagel Bohrsgade 35 CPH W Q ,690 Accenture A/S Olof Palmes Allé 25 Aarhus N Q ,179 Region Midtjylland Tankedraget 25 Aalborg Q ,600 Classified Dampfærgevej 8-12 CPH E Q ,400 Classified Kochsgade 31 - Lejlighed nr. 31, 1. Odense C Q ,327 Coworking Plus ApS Vesterballevej 4 Fredericia Q ,821 DLG A.m.b.A. Sofiendalsvej 93 Aalborg SV Q ,588 Classified Nygårdsvej 5 CPH E Q ,574 Classified Skt. Petri Passage 5, 3. CBD Q ,335 Heimstaden NPM VACANCY AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Office vacancy rates compared to unemployment in Copenhagen 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Vacancy rate Copenhagen City Vacancy rate Copenhagen Area Unemployment Copenhagen Area Source: Statistics Denmark & Ejendomstorvet.dk PRIME RENT DKK/SQM CITY SUBAREA Q Q CHANGE Copenhagen City 1,750 1, % Copenhagen Østerbro / Vesterbro 1,250 1, % Copenhagen Frederiksberg 1,300 1, % Copenhagen Ørestaden 1,350 1, % Copenhagen Norrebro / Nordvest 1,200 1, % Copenhagen South & West (surrounding areas) 950 1, % Copenhagen North (Surrounding areas) 1,300 1, % Aarhus Aarhus 1,325 1, % Odensen Odense 1,000 1, % FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 26 / 35

27 OCCUPIER MARKET - RETAIL LARGE INTEREST FROM INTERNATIONAL BRANDS Golden Goose Deluxe Brand and Jimmy Choo have both scored a location on Købmagergade close to Amagertorv and have therefore become part of the highly luxurious high street pitch. Moreover, well-known brands such as Daniel Wellington, Axel Arigato, and Paustian are locating flagship stores in secondary areas around Købmagergade. After years of searching for the perfect location, the Japanese clothing brand Uniqlo has finally found the ideal location for their new flagship store in Denmark. Uniqlo will in the future be located in Louises Hus on Vimmelskaftet 38 and expect to open in spring The low leasing activity from Gammeltorv to City Hall Square continues as the vacancy in this area is rising. It is still unknown what kind of influence the opening of the new metro city line in 2019 will have on the area. However, the construction of the new metro city line has taken its toll on this part of Strøget. When looking at the general vacancy rate for Copenhagen City and area, the vacancy has increased since Q Though, the vacancy has increased the consumer confidence has gone up. In general, we see differentiating interests about Strøget. Some parts of Strøget are experiencing rising vacancy while others are influenced by low vacancy and high interest from retailers. In 2018, we saw an increase in rent levels. The highest increase was in the secondary parts of Strøget, Lyngby, and Aarhus. Additionally, Købmagergade has experienced a higher increase compared to Strøget. The interest in Købmagergade continues to grow as the street attracts new international tenants. RECENT DEVELOPMENTS STREET NAME LOCATION DATE SIZE (SQM) NEW TENANT Købmagergade 7 CPH City 2018/Q2 115 Golden Goose Købmagergade 7 CPH City 2018/Q2 200 Jimmy Choo Pilestræde 16 CPH City 2018/Q2 479 Axel Arigatto Vimmelskaftet 38 CPH City 2018/Q2 1,388 Uniqlo Rådhuspladsen 14 CPH City 2018/Q Eleven Frederiksberggade 25 CPH City 2018/Q2 629 Victorious Kronprinsensgade 2 CPH City 2018/Q2 N/A Daniel Wellington Kronprinsensgade 13 CPH City 2018/Q2 90 Birkenstock Frederiksberggade 27 CPH City 2018/Q1 230 Skechers Vesterbrogade 1B CPH V 2018/Q1 N/A McDonalds Niels Hemmingsensgade 24 CPH City 2018/Q1 1,315 Paustian Store Kongensgade 84 CPH City 2018/Q Eleven Købmagergade 39 CPH City 2017/Q4 758 Boozt.com PRIME RENT DKK/SQM - ZONE A SUBAREA 2017 Q Q2 CHANGE Strøget (incl. Vimmelskaftet) 23,000 24, % Strøget Area - side streets 10,000 11, % Købmagergade 22,000 24, % Østerbrogade 7,000 7, % Nørrebrogade 3,500 3, % VACANCY RATES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Retail vacancy rates compared to consumer confidence in Copenhagen 5,00% 4,50% 4,00% 3,50% Source: 3,00% Statistics Denmark & Ejendomsstorvet.dk 2,50% 2,00% 1,50% 1,00% 0,50% 0,00% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Vacancy rate Copenhagen City Vacancy rate Copenhagen area Consumer Confidence index Source: Statistics Denmark & Ejendomsstorvet.dk FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 27 / 35

28 FOOTFALL ANALYSIS INCREASING INTEREST FOR ØSTERGADE The Copenhagen main street has experienced various changes in footfall in recent time, as especially Østergade have seen an increasing interest. 7. 4,700 Overall, Copenhagen high streets have experienced a decrease of approx. 8% in total footfall counts in H1 Kultorvet 2018 compared to H The decrease in footfall counts might be in conjunction with the continuing ager Købm construction work across Copenhagen high street as it blocks and interferes with access and flow. gad Most of the Copenhagen high streets have experienced e a decrease in footfall in H1 2018, which is illustrated by the negative change in pedestrians on most of the streets listed on the Footfall map. However, a significant increase in pedestrians is registered at the start of Østergade, where the number has increased by 900 people per average hour. The rising footfall might be the correlation between the increasing interest from retailers wanting to be located this end of the high street. Furthermore, the new metro entry at Kgs. Nytorv will be relocated so that the main stairway will be located right between Østergade and Lille Kongensgade. It is expected that Østergade will benefit positively from this relocation as it will be the new preferred gateway to Strøget. Overall, the metro COUNTING METHODOLOGY RED carries out the counts on Fridays at 4 pm with the purpose of registrering a development and conclude a level of footfall at different locations on Strøget and Købmagergade. The footfall is counted manually from both directions. infrastructure in Copenhagen will be significantly improved with the opening of the new metro line. The footfall on Østergade has improved significantly over the last three years compared to Frederiksberggade and Købmagergade, who witnessed a fall of respective -14% and -19% against an increase at Vimme Østergade of +53%. We expect footfall counts to re-stabilize on most of e ad high street after most of the construction work, in Nyg connection with the new metro, has been finished. Gammeltorv 4. 4,700 e ad F 28 / 35 FOCUS sb rik e red g erg MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET Rådhuspladsen OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX

29 FOOTFALL COUNTS IN H AND H NO. STREET NAME THE MAP The map shows the counting points and the average footfall per hour the last 12 months. 9. 4, H H CHANGE 1 Amagertorv 5,380 4, Østergade 3,656 4, Pilestræde/Kronprinsensgade 2,979 2, Frederiksberggade 4,803 4, Vimmelskaftet/Amagertorv 6,120 4, Købmagergade/Silkegade 4,851 4, Frederiksborggade/Købmagergade 4,881 4, Købmagergade/Valkendorfsgade 4,610 5, Rundetårn 4,996 4, Købmagergade/Løvstræde 5,065 4, , ,000 Kgs. Nytorv 8. 6,400 ade 2. sterg Ø New metro 5, ,200 Købm ager gade e gad Øster 1. ertorv Amag 5. 5,600 5,700 elskaftet FOOTFALL DEVELOPMENT H H ,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 H FOCUS MACROECONOMICS H H H H Østergade (Hugo Boss) Købmagergade (Silkegade) Frederiksbberggade (Lagkagehuset) Frederiksbborggade/Købmagergade INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 29 / 35

30 KØBMAGERGADE 39 Generali Real Estate enters the Nordic property market with the acquisition of Købmagergade 39. Cushman & Wakefield l RED facilitated the sale. 30 / 35

31 APPENDIX - DANISH TRANSLATION 31 / 35

32 ENGLISH VERSION AT PAGE 6 UDGIVELSE II FOKUS STUDIEBOLIGER ET ATTRAKTIVT INVESTERINGSOBJEKT? Hvert eneste år før studiestart kører diskussionen omkring, hvordan de unge, der starter på studie i større studiebyer, finder en bolig. Tal fra 2017, viser at der er størst søgning i København, hvor dækningen i form af antal af studieboliger i forhold studerende ligger på 15 pct. mod 28 pct. i Danmark som helhed. Der er en stor pipeline af studieboliger på vej, men dette vil højst sandsynligt ikke kunne imødekomme den stadig store efterspørgsel. Kombinationen af den høje efterspørgsel fra lejerne, muligheden for at opnå et højere afkast ift. traditionelle boliginvesteringer samt studieboligers manglende korrelation med den generelle økonomi, gør studieboliger til et interessant investeringsobjekt. KEY POINTS Høj efterspørgsel fra studielejer ift. udbud. STOR MANGEL PÅ STUDIEBOLIGER Hvert år stiger antallet af studerende. I Danmark er der p.t. i alt nationale og internationale studerende på en videregående uddannelse. Siden 2010 er antallet af danske studerende steget med 23 pct., mens internationale studerende er steget med 41 pct. De to største studiebyer er København og Aarhus med henholdsvis og studerende, og naturligt er der derfor stor efterspørgsel efter studieboliger i disse to byer. Problematikken er dog, at udbuddet af studieboliger er markant lavere end efterspørgslen. Kun 15 pct. af de studerende i København har muligheden for at kunne bosætte sig i en studiebolig. Forholdet mellem studerende og studieboliger er markant bedre i Aarhus, hvor ca pct. har mulighed for at få en studiebolig. Det er naturligvis ikke alle, som præfererer en studiebolig, men uagtet er antallet af studieboliger i forhold til studerende meget lavt. Det er ikke kun i Danmark, at der er et misforhold mellem udbud og efterspørgsel for studieboliger, idet problematikken også ses i resten af Europa. For eksempel er det henholdsvis blot 10 og 13 pct. af de studerende i Tyskland og Frankrig, som har mulighed for at få en studiebolig. Værre ser det ud i lande som Italien, Portugal og Spanien hvor det kun er 3-6 pct. STØRST MANGEL PÅ STUDIEBOLIGER I KØBENHAVN I København har antallet af studieboliger ikke tilnærmelsesvis kunne følge med forøgelsen af studerende. Ifølge Københavns Kommune er der i perioden blevet tilført nye studie- og kolle- Højere afkast ift. traditionelle boliginvesteringer. Ikke korreleret med den generelle økonomi. Lempeligere krav ved opførelse af studieboliger. Naturlig øvre lejegrænse. STUDERENDE & STUDIEBOLIGER 100% 90% 80% UNGDOMSBOLIG 70% Ungdomsboliger er omfattet af Lov om støttede private ungdomsboliger hvilket betyder, at lejerne skal være aktivt studerende, som enten er SU-berettigede eller er under en lærlinge-/elevuddannelse. Der gives ikke længere statsstøtte til opførsel af private ungdomsboliger. DÆKNINGSGRAD 60% 50% 40% KOLLEGIEBOLIG: Kollegieboliger har samme krav til lejere som ungdomsboliger, men udover dette skal kollegieboligerne også overholde en række overordnede tildelingsregler. Det er bl.a. ikke først-til-mølle-princippet, men under hensyntagen til den boligsøgendes uddannelsesmæssige, økonomiske og sociale forhold. STUDIEBOLIG: Vi omtaler studieboliger i artiklen som en fælles betegnelse for ungdomsboliger og kollegieboliger. 30% 20% 10% 0% 15% 12% 18% 19% København (inkl. Lyngby-Taarbæk Roskilde Odense Aarhus Aalborg Frederiksberg) Studieboliger Studerende 25% 30% Sources: Trafik-, Bygge- og Boligstyrelsen FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 32 / 35

33 gieboliger til København, men i samme periode er antallet af studerende steget med omtrent studerende. Det vil sige, at kun ca. 14 % af behovet er dækket ved det tilførte byggeri. Dermed er det i forvejen store mismatch mellem antallet af studieboliger og studerende ikke blevet mindre, men derimod større. PIPELINE NYT ER PÅ VEJ, MEN DET ER IKKE NOK TIL AT DÆKKE BEHOVET Der er kommet ekstra fokus på studieboliger de senere år, hvilket også kan ses på den kommende pipeline i København. I årene forventes det, at der vil blive opført omkring 24 udviklingsprojekter i København, hvilket ca. svarer til nye studieboligværelser. Selvom antallet af studerende har nået et nogenlunde stabilt niveau, og der er flere studieboliger i pipelinen, vil det ikke kunne møde efterspørgslen. Herudover mener Kjeld Pedersen, Partner i RED: Investorer bør allerede nu indtænke hvordan og hvor de studerende ønsker at bo i fremtiden. Fra et langsigtet investeringsmæssigt synspunkt er det vigtigt at have fokus på at skabe boliger til studerende af høj kvalitet med god beliggenhed og til en husleje de studerende kan betale. STUDIEBOLIGER SET FRA ET INVESTORPERSPEKTIV Flere investorer opfatter segmentet studieboliger som et attraktivt investeringssegment bl.a. som følge af den demografiske udvikling med stor tilflytning til studiebyerne og den generelle mangel på studieboliger. Derudover er studieboligmarkedet ikke konjunkturfølsomt, idet at en persons beslutning, om at studere eller ej, ikke er påvirket af den økonomiske tilstand. Det ses derimod ifølge data fra Cushman & Wakefield, at flere lande oplever en stigning i antallet af optagede studerende på videregående uddannelser under lavkonjunkturperioder. Derudover er der lempeligere krav til opførsel af studieboliger i form af en lavere procentsats til friareal og en lavere parkeringsnorm, hvilket ellers har det med at fordyre almindelige boligprojekter. Efterspørgslen fra lejersiden er dog begrænset til én type lejere; studerende. Af denne grund er der en naturlig øvre grænse for lejeniveauet for studieboliger, da brugerne har begrænsede indkomstkilder. STUDERENDE & STUDIEBOLIGER I KØBENHAVN % % % % STUDERENDE % 50% 40% DÆKNINGSGRAD % % % År 0% Studerende Studieboliger Source: Danmarks Statistik, Københavns Kommune, Trafik-, Bygge- og Boligstyrelsen FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 33 / 35

34 UDGIVELSE II FOKUS I eksemplet nedenfor antager vi, at en studerendes indkomst potentielt set kan bestå af SU, SU-lån, løn fra et studiejob samt boligsikring. Ud fra disse indkomstkilder har vi opstillet tre forskellige indkomsttyper for en studerende. Lejeniveauet for en gennemsnitlig studiebolig i København er estimeret i niveauet DKK om måneden. Vores regneeksempler viser, at lejebyrden udgør imellem pct. af den disponible indkomst. En studerende i indkomsttype I benytter sig af samtlige fire indkomstkilder, hvilket resulterer i en lejebyrde på 41 pct. Til sammenligning udgør boligbyrden for ejerlejligheder i København 36 pct. i 2017 (Nykredits seneste analyse). Det indikerer således, at fremtidige lejestigninger for studieboliger bør være lettere begrænset. Risikofaktorerne kan opsummeres til følgende: Antallet af potentielle lejere er begrænset til studerende, hvorfor der er begrænsede udsigter til lejestigninger. Større fraflytningsrate. En studieboliginvestering kræver i øvrigt langt mere aktiv forvaltning end en sædvanlig boligudlejningsejendom, henset bl.a. til større slitage og en større administration der er forbundet med at eje en studieboligejendom pga. den store udskiftning af lejere. Følsomhed overfor politisk risiko, idet en studerendes indkomst består af SU, som fra regeringens side potentielt set kan blive nedsat. OUTLOOK Vi mener fortsat, at der er gode grunde til optimisme på investeringsmarkedet for studieboliger. På trods af et øget udbud af studieboliger i fremtiden, er det vores opfattelse, at udbuddet stadig er for begrænset til at kunne imødekomme efterspørgslen fra det høje antal studerende. Derudover er der, som tidligere omtalt, en vis politisk risiko til stede ved studieboliginvesteringer. Et nyligt regeringsforslag åbner dog op for at hæve de studerendes fribeløb med kroner om året. Dette betyder, at den studerende kan tjene flere penge ved siden af SU, hvilket alt andet lige vil gøre lejebyrden mindre. HØJERE AFKAST INDKOMSTTYPER & LEJEBYRDER Den store mangel på studieboliger, hvilket har reduceret tomgangsrisikoen, synes at have vækket investeringslysten i de københavnske ungdomsboliger. Det har resulteret i et stigende antal investeringer i nye udviklingsprojekter, 80 % 70 % 60 % men også i ombygninger af eksisterende ejendomme. Et væsentligt forhold som 50 % fanger investorernes interesse er, at afkastet på studieboliger i København stadig er højere i forhold til afkastet på traditionelle boliginvesteringer. Ved investeringer i studieboliger kan der typisk LEJEBYRDE 40 % 30 % 61% 52% 20 % 10 % 0 % 41% opnås et afkast, som er basispunkter over afkastet på traditionelle boliginvesteringer. Dette merafkastet skal ses i forhold til, at der er ekstra risikofaktorer, der er indeholdt i afkastkravet specifikt for studieboligejendomme. Risikofaktorerne kan opsummeres til følgende: INDKOMSTTYPE I SU, BOLIGSIKRING, LØNINDKOMST, SU-LÅN INDKOMSTTYPE II SU, BOLIGSIKRING, LØNDINDKOMST INDKOMSTTYPE III SU, BOLIGSIKRING, SU-LÅN Kilde: djoef.dk, borger.dk, SU.dk & Cushman Wakefield I RED FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 34 / 35

35 INDKOMSTTYPE I EFTER SKAT SU Boligsikring 943 Lønindkomst SU-lån Totale indkomst Leje Lejebyrde 41% ANTAGELSER SU SU-sats for 2018 BOLIGSIKRING Boligsikring er beregnet ved anvendelse af borger.dk s beregn din boligstøtte platform. Inputs til beregneren er følgende: 30 m2, 2 værelser, DKK leje pr. måned. LØNINDKOMST Ifølge Djøf arbejder en studerende i gennemsnit 15 timer ugentligt og modtager en timeløn på DKK 137. Dette giver en nettoløn på DKK SU-LÅN SU-lån sats for FOCUS MACROECONOMICS INVESTMENT MARKET OCCUPIER MARKET APPENDIX 35 / 35

36 TRY OUR DYNAMIC ANALYSIS TOOL AT CW-RED.DK Cushman & Wakefield RED has throughout the years worked structured and intense to increase the transparency on the Danish commercial real estate market. We have therefore introduced a dynamic research tool on our website that allows you to perform your own analysis by using our underlying market data. Enjoy! CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD RED RED@CW-RED.DK