Vand & konflikt frem mod 2030

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Lene Beck
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1 Vand & konflikt frem mod 00 Helle Munk Ravnborg Dansk Institut for Internationale Studier

2 Budskaber mangel på vand fører ikke til konflikt men tab af adgang til vand gør især hvis årsagen til tab opleves som uretfærdig rettigheder til vand bliver i stigende grad vigtige som redskab i vandkonflikter som årsag til vandkonflikter

3 Baggrund forskning i 5 kommuner i 5 lande Bolivia; Mali; Nicaragua; Vietnam & Zambia kortlægning af konflikter & samarbejde om vand fra og deres intensitet vi identificerede ~750 hændelser ~6.000 vand-relaterede hændelser = ~.000 vand-relaterede situationer

4 Intensitetsskala for hændelser om vand conflict description Intensity cooperation description Engage in organized collective violence/ warfare -7 7 Merge formerly individual access rights Engage in unplanned collective violence, riots -6 6 Joint decision-making authority and/or rules development for water use and allocation Undertake collective large-scale violation of other party s access rights -5 5 Establish joint organisational forum Stage public protests/demonstration s (peaceful) -4 4 Commit to written or verbal agreements and plans that are sanctioned by a third party Denounce to authorities and/or third party (formal or customary) - Commit to written or verbal agreements and plans that are not sanctioned by a third party Engage in sporadic/small scale violation or sabotage of other s access rights - Engage in sporadic/occasional joint activities Engage in informal verbal dispute/expression of discontent - Express casual verbal recognition of each other s access rights

5 Hvad handler konflikt & samarbejde om? # of water-related situations (N=,954) competing claims of access water scarcity water management rules need for drinking water damaged drinking water supply infrastructure need for irrigation infrastructure irrigation management construction of irrigation management infrastructure construction of water supply infrastructure dams (large & small scale) deviation of water water quality watering of animals damaged irrigation infrastructure water ownership water & environmental protection land-based water ownership flooding river management depletion of ground water privatization of water supply mainly conflictive mainly cooperative both conflictive & cooperative

6 Knaphed & konflikt knaphed på vand får mennesker til at handle 80% af alle hændelser om vand fandt sted i tørtiden men fører ikke i sig selv til konflikt konflikt er ikke mere sandsynlig i tørtiden end i regntiden link ingen entydig sammenhæng mellem nedbørsbaseret tilgængelighed af vand og antal konfliktfyldte hændelser link konfliktintensitet

7 percent events Konfliktfyldte hændelser i tør- og regntid 00 dry season - conflictive wet season - conflictive Tiraque Douentza Condega Con Cuong Namwala Back!

8 Antal hændelser pr husstand Number of water-related events per rural household by annual average precipitation higher number of waterrelated events does not correlate with climatically determined water availability Conflictive water-related events as percentage of total number of waterrelated events by annual average precipitation greater likelihood of conflictive events does not correlate with climatically determined water availability Back!

9 Tab af adgang til vand & dets årsager klimaforandringer: uforudsigelighed og ekstreme hændelser men sammenhængen til konflikt og samarbejde er heller ikke her entydig link naboen tager mit vand link de fremmede tager vores vand link

10 Nedbørsvariation sandsynlighed for at et hydrologisk år/tørtid er tørrere end det/den aktuelle Hydrological year variability : Dry season variability : very dry dry average wet very wet very dry dry average wet very wet number of hydrological years Tiraque (Bolivia) 4 Douentza (Mali) 4 4 Condega (Nicaragua) Con Cuong (Vietnam) 4 Namwala (Zambia) number of dry seasons Tiraque (Bolivia) 5 Douentza (Mali) 4 Condega (Nicaragua) Con Cuong (Vietnam) Namwala (Zambia) very dry: <0%; dry: 0%-40%; average: 40%-60%; wet: 60%-80%; very wet: >80%

Nedbørsbaseret variation i tilgængelighed af vand som indikator på omfang af konflikt og samarbejde om vand Forskellige korrelationsmønstre: Tiraque: very wet & average year flere hændelser Namwala:

11 Nedbørsbaseret variation i tilgængelighed af vand som indikator på omfang af konflikt og samarbejde om vand Forskellige korrelationsmønstre: Tiraque: very wet & average year flere hændelser Namwala: dry & very dry year flere hændelser Douentza: average year flere hændelser Condega: very wet (Mitch) & dry year 004/005 flere hændelser Con Cuong: dry & average year flere hændelser andre faktorer end nedbørsbaseret variation i vandtilgængelighed må have betydning som kilde til konflikt og samarbejde om vand Back!

12 Douentza and Namwala districts infrastructure scarce: >5% of households walk >0 minutes to fetch water limited water infrastructure for productive purposes Back! Percent households per poverty catetory Percent households per poverty catetory Percent households per poverty catetory Ground water as drinking water source - dry season Non-poor Less poor Poorest Douentza Namwala Ground water as source for animals - wet season Non-poor Less poor Poorest Douentza Namwala Ground water as source for animals - dry season Non-poor Less poor Poorest Douentza Namwala

13 Nye former for brug af vand Nye brugere minedrift i Con Cuong tobak og grøntsager i Condega osv. ~ - måneders forbrug til drikke og husholdningsvand i Condega distriktet (by & land)

14 Rettigheder til vand som redskab i og årsag til konflikt forskellige sæt af rettigheder til vand link forskellige grupper har forskellig adgang til de forskellige sæt af rettigheder & autoriteter kampen om adgang til vand bliver derfor også en kamp om hvilke sæt rettigheder, der skal have forrang frem for andre link

15 Forskellige sæt af rettigheder som støtte for krav om vand statutory economic customary need for w ater investment in infrastructure land-based rights customary rights community sanctioned rights social, cultural and/or human first appropiation previous agreement externally sanctioned rights ancestral rights agricultural investments made w ater agency sanctioned fee paid to ow ner fee paid to w ater agency w asteful use environmentally harmful sanctioned by national law religiously sanctioned public investment sanctioned by legal sanctioned by district law other % of total estimated number of water-related situations per district Back! Tiraque (Bolivia) Douentza (Mali) Condega (Nicaragua) Con Cuong (Vietnam) Namwala (Zambia)

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