Det danske ejendomsmarked. The Danish Property Market 2016

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1 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market 2016 J.C. Jacobsens Have, Carlsberg Byen. Utopian City Scape The J.C. Jacobsen s Garden, Carlsberg City, Valby/Copenhagen. Utopian City Scape 1

2 Ørestad. By & Havn, Peter Sørensen Ørestad, Copenhagen. CPH City & Port Development, Peter Sørensen 2 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market

3 Indhold Forord side 5 Dansk økonomi side 7 Ejendomsfinansiering side 21 Ny statistik for økonomisk tomgang side 27 Kontormarkedet side 33 Industri- og logistikmarkedet side 43 Detailmarkedet side 51 Boligmarkedet side 61 Hotelmarkedet side 67 Investeringsmarkedet og Capital Markets side 73 De nordiske markeder side 79 De europæiske markeder side 83 Tema: Deleøkonomi - betydning og perspektiver for erhvervsejendomsmarkedet side 87 Content Foreword page 5 The Danish Economy page 7 Property Financing page 21 New Economic Vacancy Statistics page 27 The Office Market page 33 The Industrial and Logistics Market page 43 The Retail Market page 51 The Residential Market page 61 The Hotel Market page 67 The Investment and Capital Markets page 73 The Nordic Markets page 79 The European Markets page 83 Feature Topic: The sharing economy: implications and outlook for the commercial property market page 87 3

4 Nordhavn. By & Havn, Peter Sørensen Nordhavn, Copenhagen Harbour. CPH City & Port Development, Peter Sørensen 4 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market

5 Forord Morten Jensen Direktør, seniorpartner Afdelingsleder vurdering & research Newsec Egeskov & Lindquist har i mange år produceret en lang række rapporter om de forskellige geografiske og ejendomsmæssige segmenter på det danske ejendomsmarked. Vi samlede i foråret 2015 vores analyser af alle ejendomssegmenter i én rapport Det danske ejendomsmarked. Efter en kortere opdatering af forårets omfattende rapport i efteråret 2015, glæder det os nu at kunne præsentere Det danske ejendomsmarked Det danske erhvervsejendomsmarked udviklede sig positivt igennem 2015 med stigende efterspørgsel efter investeringsejendomme og øget udlejningsaktivitet. Den positive udvikling skyldes dels de historisk lave renter, dels den generelle bedring i dansk økonomi. Samlet resulterede det i moderat stigende lejeniveauer på primære ejendomme i landets større byer og en transaktionsvolumen på 47 mia. kr., hvilket er det højeste niveau siden 2007 og tre gange så højt som i De positive takter fra 2015 forventes at fortsætte igennem 2016 med en fortsat stigende tendens i transaktionsvolumen og let stigende lejeniveauer på primære ejendomme. Herudover forventes det at efterspørgslen efter de bedste ejendomme på sekundære geografiske placeringer fra både investorer og lejere vil opleve en stigning. I denne udgave kan du læse om: Dansk økonomi Ejendomsfinansiering Økonomisk tomgang Markederne for - Kontorejendomme - Industri- og logistikejendomme - Detailejendomme - Boligudlejningsejendomme - Hoteller De nordiske ejendomsmarkeder De europæiske ejendomsmarkeder Investeringsmarkedet og Capital Markets TEMA: Deleøkonomi - betydning og perspektiver for erhvervsejendomsmarkedet Foreword Morten Jensen Director, Senior Partner Head of Valuation & Research For many years, Newsec Egeskov & Lindquist has produced a number of reports on the various geographic and property segments of the Danish real estate market. In the spring of 2015 we gathered our analyses of all property segments in one report The Danish Property Market. Subsequent to a shorter update of the extensive spring report, we are pleased to now present The Danish Property Market report for The Danish commercial property market performed well in 2015, with growing demand for investment opportunities and increased rental activity. The positive trend is partly due to the historically low interest rates and the general improvement in the Danish economy. Overall this resulted in a moderate increase in rent levels in prime properties in the country s major cities and a transaction volume of DKK 47 billion., which is the highest level since 2007 and three times as high as in The positive trend from 2015 is expected to continue through 2016 with a continued upward trend in transaction volumes and slightly increasing rental levels in prime properties. In addition, it is expected that the demand for the best properties in secondary locations from both investors and tenants will experience an increase. This report offers information and analysis on: Danish Economy Property Financing Economic vacancy The Markets for: - Office properties - Industrial and logistics properties - Retail properties - Rental properties - Hotels The Nordic Property Markets The European Property Markets The Investment and Capital Markets FEATURE ARTICLE: The sharing economy: meaning and perspectives for the commercial real estate market 5

6 Byggepladsen Carlsberg Byen. Kontraframe Building site, Carlsberg City, Valby/Copenhagen. Kontraframe 6 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market

7 Dansk økonomi Nationalregnskabet DANSK ØKONOMI INDE I VÆKSTFASE Dansk økonomi er nu inde i en periode med vækstfremgang efter flere år med lav eller negativ real BNP-vækst. Ifølge Danmarks Statistik var realvæksten i 2013 og 2014 på henholdsvis -0,2% og 1,3%, og væksten forventes at nå omkring 1,4% i Efter positiv vækst i de første to kvartaler i 2015 tegnede det til en realvækst i BNP oppe i omegnen af 2%. Væksten i 3. kvartal blev dog noget mindre opløftende og landede foreløbigt på -0,4%. Den negative udvikling skyldes primært international uro, idet usikkerheder omkring Kinas økonomi, flygtningestrømningen mod Europa og blandede meldinger fra USA skabte øget usikkerhed. Generelt peger pilene dog i en positiv retning på nationalt plan, og faldende arbejdsløshed og vækst i privatforbruget tegner et overordnet billede af en dansk økonomi i bedring. Det Økonomiske Råds opdaterede vækstprognose fra januar 2016 forudser en realvækst i BNP på 1,1% i 2015, ca. 1,1% i 2016, samt en realvækst omkring 2,3% i Dette er en nedjustering sammenlignet med vækstprognosen fra efteråret 2015, men prognosen indikerer dog fortsat, at udsigterne for dansk økonomi er væsentligt forbedret sammenlignet med de seneste år. Den primære positive bidragsyder til væksten i de tre første kvartaler af 2015 var det private forbrug, mens import af varer og tjenester var den største negative bidragsyder. Det forventes, at privatforbruget ligeledes vil vise sig at have båret en eventuel vækst i 4. kvartal I 2016 forventes det, at det private forbrug vil være den største bidragsyder, mens nettoeksporten forventes at bidrage mere positivt end i Som en lille åben økonomi er Danmark i høj grad afhængig af handel med andre nationer. Derfor er dansk økonomi meget afhængig af den økonomiske udvikling på sine største eksportmarkeder, særligt Tyskland, Sverige og USA. De forbedrede europæiske og amerikanske økonomier er derfor særdeles gode tegn for udsigterne for dansk økonomisk vækst. Dette underbygges yderligere af, at den amerikanske centralbank medio december 2016 hævede renten for første gang i 9 år. Rentestigningen ses generelt som et tegn på bedring i USA s økonomi og første skridt mod en normalisering. På trods af de positive udsigter for dansk økonomi er der fortsat store usikkerheder, som kan påvirke væksten negativt. Afmatningen i kinesisk økonomi, flygtningestrømmen mod Europa og de meget lave oliepriser tegner et billede af en verdensøkonomi, som langt fra er inde i en stabil periode. Herudover er den noget mindre tætte pressedækning af den græske finansielle krise ikke et tegn på, at udfordringerne her er ovre. Det er således alfa og omega for Danmark og andre europæiske økonomier, at de ovenstående udfordringer behandles hensigtsmæssigt fra politisk side. Herudover er det vigtigt for at opretholde en positiv vækst i The Danish Economy The National Accounts DANISH ECONOMY IN A GROWTH PHASE The Danish economy has now entered a period of growth, following on from several years low or negative GDP growth. According to Statistics Denmark, the real growth in 2013 and 2014 was -0.2% and 1.3%, respectively, and the growth rate for 2015 is expected to be approximately 1.4%. After positive growth in the first two quarters of 2015, a picture was emerging of a real GDP growth close to 2%. However, Q3 growth was somewhat less promising, currently estimated at -0.4%. The negative development can be mainly attributed to international unrest, since the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese economy, the refugee numbers arriving in Europe, and the mixed messages from the US contributed to increased uncertainty. Generally, however, the indicators point in a positive direction, nationally speaking, and the drop in the unemployment rate and private consumption growth create an overall picture of an improving Danish economy. The growth forecast from The Economic Council (De Økonomiske Råd) predicts a 1.1% real GDP growth for 2015, approx. 1.1% for 2016, and real growth of 2.3% for This represents a minor downwards adjustment when comparing with the growth prognosis from autumn of 2015, although the prognosis still does suggest a significantly improved outlook for the Danish economy in comparison with recent years. Private consumption was the primary positive contributor to growth in the first three quarters of 2015, while imports of goods and services were the biggest negative contributors. There is an expectation that private consumption will also have carried any growth during Q4 of The expectation for 2016 is that private consumption will provide the largest contribution, while net export is expected to contribute more positively than for Due to its small, open economy, Denmark relies heavily on trade with other nations. This makes the Danish economy highly dependent upon the economic developments in its largest export markets, particularly those of Germany, Sweden and the US. This means that the upturn in the European and US economies is a very positive indication of the prospects for growth in the Danish economy. This is further supported by the first interest rate increase in 9 years announced by the US Federal Reserve in mid-december The 7

8 dansk økonomi, at landets større virksomheder forstår at navigere under disse vanskellige internationale forhold. POSITIV FORBRUGERTILLID OG SVAGT ØGET PRIVATFORBRUG Forbrugetilliden er fortsat positiv og viste fra oktober til december 2015 en stigende tendens. Fra januar til april 2015 steg forbrugertilliden fra 9,0 til 13,7. Herefter faldt forbrugertilliden til 3,0 i oktober som følge af store internationale usikkerheder. Forbrugertilliden er dog forblevet positiv igennem hele 2015, og den svagt stigende tendens mod slutningen af året indikerer, at danskernes forbrug i 2016 vil stige sammenlignet med året før. Den positive forbrugertillid afspejles i et let øget sæsonkorrigeret privat forbrug i 2015, som udgjorde DKK 230,6 mia. i 3. kvartal mod DKK 225,5 mia. i samme kvartal året før. Den positive forbrugertillid kommer ligeledes til udtryk igennem dankortforbruget på årets store handelsdage. Udsalgsdagen Black Friday, som ligger sidste fredag i november (dagen efter amerikanernes Thanksgiving helligdag), er således blevet taget godt i mod af danskerne. I 2015 købte danskerne således ind for kr. 1,98 mia. med deres dankort på Black Friday, hvilket er den højeste dankortomsætning på en enkelt dag nogensinde. Omsætningen svarede til en stigning på ca. 13% i forhold til den tidligere rekord og en stigning på ca. 28% sammenlignet med Black Friday De største private forbrugsudgifter går til fødevarer, køb og drift af transportmidler, husleje (eller beregnet husleje af ejerbolig) samt andre boligudgifter, såsom vand, varme og el. Andre større forbrugsudgifter går til mere luksusprægede goder, såsom forlystelser og tv samt restaurantbesøg og hotelophold. Udgifter til bolig og madvarer er førsteprioritetsudgifter for langt de fleste familier og vil som procent af den disponible indkomst være toneangivende for forbruget i de øvrige kategorier. Den relativt lave boligbyrde ledt an af de historisk lave renter, sammenholdt med en lav inflation, medfører derfor, at forbrugerne alt andet lige har en øget disponibel indkomst efter udgifter til mad og bolig i forhold til tidligere år. Dette kan presse boligpriserne yderligere opad, idet en del af denne indkomst vil blive brugt til at købe/leje en mere attraktiv bolig. Det forventes dog, at størstedelen af denne effekt har indpriset sig i boligmarkedet allerede. DEN OFFENTLIGE BRUTTOGÆLD ER FALDENDE I 2012 samt 2013 var der underskud på den offentlige saldo i samtlige kvartaler. Denne tendens blev afbrudt af pæne overskud i 2. og 3. kvartal 2014 på ca. 10 mia. kr. i begge kvartaler. Overskuddet skyldes ekstraordinære indtægter fra omlægningen af kapitalpensionsordningen. Uden denne omlægning ville overskuddet i 3. kvartal blive vendt til et underskud på ca. 8 mia. kr., ifølge Danmarks Statistik. Den samlede offentlige bruttogæld udgjorde i 2013 ca. 44,5% af BNP, hvilket er pænt under grænsen på interest rate increase is generally seen as a sign of improvement for the US economy and a first step towards normalisation. Despite the positive outlook for the Danish Economy, significant uncertainties remain that may carry a negative growth impact. The growth slowdown of the Chinese economy, the refugee waves heading towards Europe, and the very low oil prices all paint a picture of a global economy far from having arrived at stability. Additionally, the somewhat less intense media coverage of the Greek financial crisis is by no means an indication that the challenges here have ended. Consequently, it is imperative for Denmark and other European economies that the above referenced challenges are handled appropriately by the political sector. Also important for maintaining positive growth in the Danish economy will be for the country s larger companies to be able to navigate through these very challenging international circumstances. POSITIVE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND LIGHTLY INCREASED PRIVATE CONSUMPTION Consumer confidence remains positive and showed a positive trend between October and December Consumer confidence rose from 9.0 to 13.7 between January and April After this, significant international uncertainty led to a consumer confidence drop to 3.0 in October. However, consumer confidence did remain positive throughout 2015, and the slightly rising trend towards year-end suggests that Danish consumption should increase when comparing with the previous year. This positive consumer confidence is mirrored by a light increase in seasonally corrected private consumption for 2015 of DKK BN in Q3, compared with DKK BN for the same quarter of the previous year. The positive consumer confidence is also expressed in the Danish credit card Dankort usage on the major trading days of the year. The sale day Black Friday, the last Friday of November and the day after the American Thanksgiving holiday, has been well received by the Danes. Indeed, in 2015, the Danish shoppers spent DKK 1.98 BN with their Dankort cards on Black Friday, the largest single day Dankort turnover ever. This turnover equates to a 13% increase over the previous record and a 28% increase over the previous Black Friday, in Most private consumption expenditure is spent on food, purchase and operation of means of transport, rent (or calculated rent if an owner-occupied dwelling), and other accommodation expenses such as water, heating and electricity. Other major expenditure is spent on more luxury-orientated items, such as entertainment and TV, dining out and hotel accommodations. Household and food costs are the primary priorities for the vast majority of families, and the fraction of the disposable income spent on these items will set the tone for the remainder of the 8 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market

9 Tabel 1.1: Nationalregnskabets hovedposter Table 1.1: National Accounts Principal Items Realvækst i % Real growth in % Bruttonationalprodukt, BNP Gross Domestic Product, GDP Import af varer og tjenester Imports of goods and services Eksport af varer og tjenester Exports of goods and services Privat forbrugsudgift Household consumption Offentlig forbrugsudgift Public consumption Faste bruttoinvesteringer mv. Gross fixed asset formation, etc * 2016* -0,7-5,1 1,6 1,2-0,7-0,5 1,3 1,1 1,1 4,3-12,4 0,9 7,1 0,9 1,5 3,3-1,1 1,9 3,2-9,5 1,9 7,3 0,1 0,8 3,1-0,9 0,1 0,5-3,6 0,8 0,1 0,4 0,0 0,6 2,2 2,5 3,2 3,0 1,3-1,4-0,2-0,5 0,2 0,8 0,8-3,3-14,3-4,0 0,3 0,6 0,9 3,4 - - *forventninger, Estimate Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark Figur 1.1: Real vækst i BNP Figure 1.1: Real Growth GDP Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark Figur 1.2: Privatforbruget Figure 1.2: Private Consumption Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark Figur 1.3: Offentlig gæld Figure 1.3: Public Debt Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark Figur 1.4: Faste bruttoinvesteringer Figure 1.4: Gross Fixed Asset Formation Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark 9

10 60%, som er sat af EU. I de første tre kvartaler af 2015 er den offentlige ØMU-gæld faldet med i alt ca. 44 mia. kr. og gælden udgjorde i 3. kvartal 2015 således 825,6 mia. kr. Dette svarer til 41,5% af BNP. Såfremt økonomien fortsætter sin fremgang, må det forventes, at ØMU-gælden gradvist kan nedbringes, idet der i mindre grad vil blive ført en ekspansiv finanspolitik. Den offentlige saldo må forventes at blive noget forbedret, hvis økonomien tager det forventede opsving og flere kommer i beskæftigelse. En øget beskæftigelse vil give en positiv dobbelteffekt i form af højere skatteindtægter og faldende overførselsindkomster. Generelt er de offentlige danske finanser i god form. ØMUgælden holder sig et pænt stykke under EU s grænse og tendensen er lige nu, at bruttogælden bliver mindre. Hvorvidt tendensen fortsætter afhænger af den nye regerings evne til at styre de offentlige finanser og den generelle udvikling i dansk økonomi. FOKUS PÅ KERNEVELFÆRD I FINANSLOVEN FOR 2016 Den nye regerings første finanslov blev vedtaget uden de store vækstfremmende tiltag i Dette var dog i nogen grad ventet, idet økonomien forventes at kunne trække sig selv de kommende år uden finansiel stimulering fra det offentlige. Fokus har i stedet været på kernevelfærdsydelser og mindre tiltag for at forbedre vilkårene for virksomheder og erhvervsdrivende. Således blev der afsat flere penge til bl.a. ældreområdet og sundhedssektoren inden for velfærdsområdet. Enkelte erhvervsområder kan bl.a. glæde sig over lavere registreringsafgift på biler, bedre vilkår for generationsskifte i familieejede virksomheder og en forlængelse af Bolig-Jobordningen i 2016 og Herudover kan en række boligejere i 2016 glæde sig over en fastfrysning af den meget omdiskuterede, og i nogle tilfælde kraftigt stigende, grundskyld. Selvom dette års finanslov ikke byder på større ekspansive tiltag, er der dog fortsat gang i byggeriet af en række infrastrukturprojekter. Således udvides metroforbindelsen i København i disse år, hvilket kommer til at omfatte flere bydele. Der skal bygges letbaner i både Aarhus, Odense, København og Aalborg. Anlæggelsen af Femern-forbindelsen forventes at tage fart inden for en overskuelig fremtid. I tillæg hertil er der flere store anlægsbyggerier i gang i Danmark inden for især sundhedsområdet, hvor der bygges nye supersygehuse forskellige steder i landet. PRESSEDE OFFENTLIGE FINANSER PÅ LÆNGERE SIGT En af de største poster inden for overførselsindkomster, folkepensionen, oplever et stadigt voksende pres. Idet danskerne lever længere og længere, stiger udgifterne til folkepension kraftigt. Udgifter til sundhedsvæsenet stiger ligeledes med middellevetiden, hvilket lægger yderligere pres på de offentlige finanser. Den stigende middellevetid sammenholdt med den lave fertilitetskvotient medfører, at der bliver relativt færre til at bidrage til den offentlige kasse i årene fremover. Det bliver dermed sværere og spending in other categories. The relatively low housing costs, led by historically low interest rates, combined with the low rate of inflation, means that consumers, all other things being equal, enjoy an increase in disposable income after food and accommodation costs compared with previous years. This may have the effect of forcing house prices up, as part of this income will be spent on buying/renting a more attractive home. It is, however, presumed that most of this effect has been already assimilated by the property market. PUBLIC GROSS DEBT IS DECREASING In 2012 and 2013 the government balance showed a deficit for all quarters. This trend was interrupted by decent surpluses in Q2 and Q of approx. DKK 10 BN for each quarter. This surplus was a result of extraordinary income from the restructuring of the capital redemption policy scheme, as a result of which those citizens who elected to re-structure their policy were taxed at the rate of 40% immediately rather than at commencement of pension payments. Without this restructuring, the Q3 surplus would have been a deficit of approx. DKK 8 BN, according to Statistics Denmark. The cumulative gross public debt in 2013 was approx. 44.5% of GDP, well below the 60% threshold set by the EU. For the first three quarters of 2015, the public EMU debt has been reduced by a total of approx. DKK 44 BN, so that by Q3 of 2015 it was at DKK BN. This corresponds to 41.5% of GDP. If the economy improvement continues, a gradual reduction of EMU debt should be expected, since there will be less need for expansive financial politics. The general government public balance should be expected to improve somewhat, provided the economy realises the predicted upturn and employment rates grow. Increased employment will provide a positive dual effect through increased tax revenues and declining social transfer costs. Generally speaking, the Danish public finances are in good shape. The EMU debt is some way below the EU threshold with a current trend pointing to a debt reduction. Whether this trend will continue depends on the ability of the new government to control the public finances and the general development in the Danish economy. CORE WELFARE FOCUS IN THE 2016 NATIONAL BUDGET The national budget of the new government was approved without significant growth promoting initiatives for This, however, was to some degree expected, since the economy is expected to be able to move under its own steam over the coming years without public financial stimulus. The focus has instead been on core welfare provision and some minor measures aimed at improving terms for companies and businesses. In consequence, 10 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market

11 Figur 1.5: Betalingsbalancens løbende poster Figure 1.5: Current Account Balance Figur 1.6: Renteudviklingen i Danmark Figure 1.6: Interest Rate Developments in Denmark Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark Kilde: Danmarks Nationalbank Source: Danish National Bank Figur 1.7: Forbrugerprisinflation Figure 1.7: Consumer Price Inflation Figur 1.8: Ledighed Figur 1.8: Unemployment Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark Figur 1.9: Lønudvikling Figure 1.9: Wage Developments Kilde: Danmarks Statistik Source: Statistics Denmark Figur 1.10: Gini-koefficienten Figure 1.10: The Gini coefficient Kilde: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 11

12 sværere for det offentlige at bibeholde det nuværende niveau af offentlige ydelser og service på mellem-lang og lang sigt. Det må derfor forventes, at de kommende år vil byde på en række reformer inden for arbejdsmarkedet og offentlige ydelser for at imødegå dette stigende pres. Der er allerede nu fokus på, at de, som træder ind på arbejdsmarkedet i dag, skal forvente at kunne arbejde til en væsentligt højere alder end tilfældet er i dag. STABILITET I DE FASTE BRUTTOINVESTERINGER De faste bruttoinvesteringer er steget løbende siden 2010 og de udgjorde i 2014 samlet DKK 363,5 mia. De foreløbige tal for kvartal 2015 indikerer, at investeringerne har stabiliseret sig på niveauet fra 4. kvartal 2014 på ca. 95 mia. kr. pr. kvartal. Investeringerne ligger dog stadig noget under niveauet fra 2008, hvor de udgjorde samlet set over 400 mia. kr. Det generelt høje niveau af investeringer peger på en øget tiltro til det fremtidige økonomiske klima. De største investeringsposter udgøres af boliginvesteringer og investeringer i intellektuelle rettigheder. Særligt de intellektuelle rettigheder har oplevet en markant fremgang det seneste årti og er, foruden en pæn fremgang i anlægsinvesteringerne, den eneste investeringspost, som er steget siden krisens indtog i Boliginvesteringerne er fortsat hårdt ramt og lå i 2014 knap 40% under niveauet fra toppen i OVERSKUD PÅ BETALINGSBALANCENS LØBENDE POSTER Danmark har siden 1990 været nettoeksportør af varer og tjenester, hvilket har bidraget til, at Danmark, med få undtagelser, har et overskud på betalingsbalancens løbende poster. Generelt set bidrager handel med varer og handel med tjenester begge to positivt sammen med løn og formueindkomster, mens overførsler mellem Danmark og udlandet, primært EU, bidrager negativt. Det høje niveau af overførsler til udlandet afspejles i, at Danmark generelt er den næststørste bidrager til EU målt pr. indbygger, kun overgået af Luxembourg. Grundet overskuddene på betalingsbalancens løbende poster har Danmark ifølge Danmarks Nationalbank akkumuleret nettotilgodehavender overfor udlandet på godt 800 mia. kr. pr. 3. kvartal Disse tilgodehavender vidner om, at Danmark generelt set klarer sig godt internationalt og at danske varer og tjenester i høj grad efterspørges uden for landets grænser. Rente og inflation FORTSAT LAVE RENTER De historisk lave renter har været en støttende hånd for den danske økonomi, hvilket især boligejere og ejendomsinvestorer har nydt godt af. Den Europæiske Centralbanks deflationsangst og forsøget på at hjælpe økonomien i gang er de primære årsager til additional welfare focused funds were set aside for the aged and the health sector. Some select business areas can rejoice, among other things, in lower car registration taxes, better generation change terms for family owned businesses and an extension of the so-called Property Works Arrangement (Bolig-JobOrdningen) into 2016 and In addition, some property owners can derive pleasure in 2016 from a freeze on the highly debated and in some areas fast increasing land ownership tax. Although the national budget for this year does not include significant expansive measures, some infrastructure building projects are ongoing. The Copenhagen subway system, for example, is undergoing expansion, enabling the system to cover more areas of the city. Light rail systems are planned for Aarhus, Odense, Copenhagen, and Aalborg. Work on the Femahrn connection is expected to commence within the foreseeable future. In addition, there are several on-going large-scale structural building projects in Denmark, particularly in the health sector, with the construction of super hospitals in various parts of the country. LONG-TERM PRESSURE ON PUBLIC FINANCES One of the largest social transfer items, the national old-age pension, is under continuously growing pressure. As Danes live longer and longer, the costs for old-age pensions are increasing considerably. Costs for the provision of health services also increase with increased life expectancy, placing an additional strain on public finances. The overall increase in life expectancy, in combination with the low fertility quotient, results in a situation in which there are relatively fewer people to help contribute to public finances in the coming years. Thus, it becomes increasingly difficult to maintain the current level of public spending for social transfers and service in the short- and long-term. Therefore, in the coming years we should expect to see a wide range of reforms linked to the job market and social transfer costs, in order to be able to respond to this increased pressure on public finances. There is already now some focus on the notion that new inductees into the job market must expect having to work until a considerably higher age than is currently the case. STABLE GROSS ASSET FORMATION Gross asset formation has been on a steady increase since 2010, totalling DKK BN in The interim figures for Q1-Q suggest an investment stabilisation at the Q level of approx. DKK 95 BN per quarter. However, the investment level is still somewhat below the 2008 level of a total of DKK 400 BN. The generally high investment level indicates an increased belief in the future economic climate. 12 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market

13 den nuværende lave rente. Den danske udlånsrente følger generelt renteniveauet fra ECB. Så længe priserne ikke begynder at stige markant, forventes det, at renten holder sit nuværende lave niveau. Realkreditrenterne steg i løbet af 2015 fra det meget lave niveau ved årets begyndelse. Dette må generelt anses som en positiv udvikling, idet risikoen for en boble på boligmarkedet blev reduceret ved rentestigningen. Stigningen ændrede dog ikke på, at renteniveauet fortsat er meget lavt. Det forventes, at niveauet de kommende år vil forblive lavt med en svagt stigende tendens. FORVENTET STIGNING I INFLATIONSRATEN Forbrugerprisinflationen i Danmark har siden 2013 ikke oversteget 1%, og lå i 2014 på blot 0,6%. Den vægtede gennemsnitlige inflation i EU har, ligesom den danske, udvist en faldende tendens igennem de seneste tre år, og endte på 0,5% i 2014 den laveste inflation i 60 år. Både europæisk og dansk inflation ligger i øjeblikket langt fra det officielle mål på 2%. Priserne forventes dog generelt at stige, når økonomierne får gang i hjulene og forbruget øges. Inflationen i 2015 forventes, ifølge De Økonomiske Råds efterårsrapport for 2015, at lande på 1,0% mens inflationen i 2016 forventes at ende på 1,6%. Disse forventninger peger på, at inflationen fortsat vil ligge under det langsigtede mål i de kommende år. Skulle de nuværende usikkerhedsmomenter i international økonomi få større negative konsekvenser for den danske vækst, kan det lave inflationsniveau blive problematisk. Kommer der et negativt stød til dansk økonomi og et efterfølgende fald i forbrugertilliden, er det derfor overvejende sandsynligt, at vi kommer til at opleve faldende priser. Uden en væsentlig mulighed for at justere renteniveauet yderligere i nedadgående retning kan en sådan deflation potentielt sætte gang i en negativ spiral, hvor forbrugerne udskyder deres indkøb af særligt varige forbrugsgoder. Det kræver dog længerevarende og kraftig deflation, før denne frygt aktualiseres og det forventes således ikke at udvikle sig til et egentligt problem under de nuværende forhold. Beskæftigelse og løn STABILT FALDENDE LEDIGHED I november 2015 var der sæsonkorrigerede bruttoledige i Danmark, hvilket er ca færre personer end samme måned året før. Den nuværende bruttoledighed svarer til 4,5% af arbejdsstyrken mod 5,0% for et år siden. Dette er dog stadig noget højere end bunden fra 2007, hvor kun 2,5% af arbejdsstyrken var ledige. En bekymring i forhold til eventuelle stigninger i beskæftigelsesniveauet er, at Danmarks produktivitetsvækst har været langt under produktivitetsvæksten i nabolandene, hvilket til dels skyldes, at danske virksomheder ikke fuldt ud har justeret deres The largest investment areas are housing and intellectual rights. Intellectual rights have seen a particularly noticeable increase over the past decade, and they are the only item, other than a decent increase in fixed asset investment, to show an increase since the start of the financial crisis in Housing investment is still badly hit, with 2014 being some 40% below the peak level of CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE SURPLUS Since 1990, Denmark has been a net exporter of goods and services, meaning that, save for a few exceptions, Denmark has had a current account surplus. Generally speaking, the trade of goods and services contributes positively, together with salaries and property income, while transfers between Denmark and other nations, primarily the EU, contribute negatively. The high level of international transfers is reflected in the fact that Denmark is generally the second-highest per capita contributor to the EU, second only to Luxembourg. As a result of the current account surplus, Denmark has, according to the Danish National Bank, accumulated net foreign assets of just under DKK 800 BN, as per Q These receivables prove that, generally speaking, Denmark is doing well on the international stage, and that Danish goods and services are highly sought after outside of the country. Interest Rates and Inflation CONTINUED LOW INTEREST RATES The historically low interest rates have lent a supporting hand to the Danish economy, particularly benefiting homeowners and property investors. The European Central Bank s fear of deflation and attempts to kick-start the economy have been the primary cause of the current low interest rate. The Danish lending rate generally follows the ECB level. Provided that prices do not begin to increase significantly, it is expected that interest rates will stay at the current low level. Mortgage lending interest rates rose during 2015 from a very low level at the start of the year. Generally, this should be seen as a positive development, as the interest rate increase counters the risk of a property market bubble. The increase did not, however, change the fact that interest rates are still very low. The expectation for the coming years is a continued low level with a gently rising trend. EXPECTED INFLATION RATE INCREASE The consumer price inflation in Denmark has not been above 1% since 2013 and in 2014 it was at just 0.6%. The weighted average inflation for EU mirrored the Danish one and showed a dropping trend over the past three years, ending on 0.5% in 2014 the lowest inflation rate in 60 years. European and Danish inflation 13

14 kapacitet til den økonomiske situation. Når den økonomiske vækst begynder at stige, vil det derfor ikke ubetinget føre til lavere arbejdsløshed, da der stadig er en mulig overkapacitet i virksomhederne. En meget lav ledighedsprocent kan lægge et uhensigtsmæssigt stort pres på lønningerne i opadgående retning, idet virksomhederne i stigende grad vil være villige til at betale en høj løn for at tiltrække kvalificeret arbejdskraft. Den nuværende lave fertilitet kan betyde, at dette pres øges fremover. I værste fald kan den danske arbejdsstyrke ikke varetage alle danske jobs i fremtiden, hvilket kan presse en række virksomheder til at søge mod udlandet. FORVENTET STIGNING I REALLØNNINGERNE Grundet den historisk lave inflation har reallønningerne i de seneste år været stigende på trods af den generelle økonomiske stagnation, hvilket har lagt et pres på virksomhedernes lønandel. Ifølge De Økonomiske Råd forventes det, at reallønnen vil stige i omegnen af 1% årligt de kommende år. Såfremt reallønnen følger denne prognose, vil det kræve, at den økonomiske vækst ligeledes tager fart for ikke at lægge yderligere pres på virksomhederne. Historisk set er lønnen særdeles ufleksibel i nedadgående retning. Der findes ganske få eksempler på overenskomster, hvor en lønnedgang er aftalt mellem parterne. Sammenholdt med den lave inflation de seneste år har virksomheder, som har forhandlet en nominel lønstigning på et par procent på plads med deres medarbejdere oplevet et stigende pres på lønudgifterne. Hvis inflationen ikke begynder at stige de kommende år, vil det lægge et yderligere pres på en række virksomheder, hvilket kan resultere i fyringer og i værste fald konkurser. INDKOMSTULIGHEDEN I DANMARK DEN LAVESTE IFØLGE OECD Gini-koefficienten er et mål for indkomstulighed, ofte målt på landebasis. En koefficient på 0 indikerer, at alle har den samme indkomst, mens en koefficient på 100 indikerer, at en person (eller gruppering) har hele indkomsten i landet. Danmarks gini-koefficient i 2014 var på 27,5 ifølge Eurostat. Til sammenligning ses Eurostats beregnede gini-koefficienter for udvalgte lande i 2014 i nedenstående tabel. Tabel 1.2: Gini-koefficienten Danmark Tyskland UK Sverige Slovenien Gini 27,5 30,7 31,6 25,4 25,0 Kilde: Eurostat Indkomstuligheden i Danmark ligger nogenlunde midt i feltet af EU lande ifølge Eurostat. Ses der i stedet på OECDs opgørelse af indkomstuligheden, er Danmark det mest lige land i verden. Det bør dog bemærkes, at der i beregningen af Eurostats gini-koefficient kun indgår egentlig disponibel indkomst fra løn og rates are currently far below the official 2% target. However, prices are expected to rise generally once the economies gain momentum and consumption increases inflation is expected, according to the 2015 autumn report of The Economic Council, to show a final figure of 1.0% while 2016 inflation is expected to end up at 1.6%. These figures indicate inflation below the long-term goal over the coming years. The low 2015 inflation can be significantly attributed to the falling oil prices. If the current uncertainty elements in the international economy turn out to have significant negative consequences for the Danish growth, the low inflation level could become problematic. If the Danish economy is negatively impacted and sees a subsequent fall in consumer confidence, it is very likely that prices will fall. Without the option to significantly adjust interest rates further in a downwards direction, deflation may potentially kick-start a negative spiral in which consumers defer acquiring particularly consumer durables. However, longer-lasting and stronger deflation is required for such fears to become a reality, and the expectation is that this will not present an actual problem under the current conditions. Occupation and Wages STEADY DROP IN UNEMPLOYMENT In November 2015, the seasonally adjusted gross unemployment in Denmark stood at 120,400 persons, approx. 11,000 less than the same month in the previous year. The current gross unemployment corresponds to 4.5% of the workforce compared with 5.0% a year ago. This is still, however, somewhat higher than the lowest level in 2007 when only 2.5% of the workforce was unemployed. One concern relative to a potential increase in the level of employment is that Denmark s growth in productivity has lagged significantly behind the growth in productivity of neighbouring countries, the reason being that Danish businesses have not fully adapted their capacities to the current financial reality. As economic growth increases, this might not lead to a definite drop in unemployment, as there is still a possible excess capacity in businesses. A very low unemployment can put undesirable amounts of pressure on businesses as they become increasingly willing to pay high wages in order to attract qualified staff. The current low fertility quotient may contribute to this pressure in future. In a worst-case scenario, the available Danish workforce will not be able to accommodate the demand for labour in Denmark, a situation that may push many businesses to relocate abroad. 14 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market

15 Figur 1.11: CO2 udledning per capita, 2014 Figure 1.11: CO2 Emission Per Capita 2014 Kilde: Global Carbon Atlas Source: Global Carbon Atlas Figur 1.12: Samlet CO2 udledning, 2014 Figure 1.12: Total CO2 Emission 2014 Kilde: Global Carbon Atlas Source: Global Carbon Atlas Figur 1.13: Olieprisudviklingen Figure 1.13: Oil Price Development Kilde: Euroinvestor Source: Euroinvestor Aarhus Havn, Aarhus Kommune/Per Ryolf 15

16 EXPECTED REAL INCOME INCREASE A consequence of the historically low inflation level is an increase in real wages over recent years, in spite of the general economic stagnation, pressuring wage shares in businesses. According to The Economic Council, real wages are expected to increase approx. 1% per annum in the years to come. If real wages do follow this prognosis, economic growth must also accelerate in order not to put additional pressure on businesses. In historical terms, wages are extremely inflexible in terms of downward developments. There are very few examples of industrial agreements involving an agreed wage reduction. When combined with the low inflation rate over recent years, businesses negotiating a nominal, few-percent wage increase for their employees have experienced increased pressures on wage costs. If the inflation rate does not begin to increase in the coming years, this will apply additional pressure on many businesses, leading to redundancies and, in the worst case, bankruptcies. INCOME DIVERGENCE IN DENMARK LOWEST ACCORDING TO OECD The Gini coefficient is a measure for income divergence, often measured on a national basis. A coefficient of 0 indicates that everyone receives the same income, while a coefficient of 100 indicates that one person (or grouping) receives all the income in the country. The Gini coefficient for Denmark in 2014 was 27.5, according to Eurostat. For comparison, the Gini coefficients for a range of countries, as calculated by Eurostat in 2014, are shown in the table below. Table 1.2: The Gini Coefficient Denmark Germany United Kingdom Sweden Slovenia Gini Source: Eurostat The wage divergence in Denmark, according to Eurostat, is placed roughly in the middle of the field of EU countries. If, however, the OECD income divergence report is considered, Denmark is the most equal nation in the world. It should be noted, however, that the Eurostat calculation of the Gini coefficient only considers real disposable income, in the form of wages and transfers. Other social insurance benefits such as free healthcare and education are not included, and this means that the Gini coefficient cannot be compared directly between countries. The development in the Gini coefficient, however, can be used to show changes in the wage divergence of an individual country. The Gini coefficient for Denmark has risen significantly since 2002, 16 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market

17 overførsler. Andre velfærdsgoder, såsom gratis sundhedsvæsen og skolegang indgår ikke og gini-koefficienten kan derfor ikke direkte sammenlignes lande imellem. Udviklingen i gini-koefficienten over tid kan derimod bruges til at vise ændringer i et enkelt lands indkomstulighed. Danmarks gini-koefficient er steget markant siden 2002, hvilket vidner om en stigende indkomstulighed i samfundet. I Danmark skal den stigende gini-koefficient i nogen grad ses som endnu en effekt af den økonomiske krise. Når flere personer bliver ledige, vil mange miste en stor del af deres indkomst, hvilket medfører at gini-koefficienten stiger. Når økonomien forbedres og arbejdsløsheden falder, må det forventes, at koefficienten falder en smule igen. Et Internationalt perspektiv DEN AMERIKANSKE CENTRALBANK HÆVER RENTEN For første gang i ni år hævede den amerikanske centralbank (Federal Reserve) renten i medio december Renten blev hævet med 0,25 procentpoint. Det forventes, at centralbanken vil komme med yderligere rentestigninger i løbet af 2016, for gradvist at bevæge sig mod en normalisering af pengepolitikken. Når renteniveauet hæves fra det meget lave niveau, skal det ses som et sundhedstegn for USA s økonomi. Renteforhøjelsen kom således som ventet i kølvandet på generelt pæne tal fra jobskabelsen og stigende inflationsrate i USA. Havde centralbankchef Janet Louise Yellen således valgt at fastholde renten ved mødet i december, ville det blive opfattet som et svaghedstegn for økonomien. Det pointeres dog, at renten stadig er meget lav og amerikansk økonomi er således fortsat langt fra at være tilbage på det forventede langsigtede niveau. I Europa liggerer inflationen fortsat noget under det langsigtede mål på 2% årligt mange steder. Herudover ligger arbejdsløsheden mange steder højt. Særligt middelhavslandene Grækenland, Spanien og Italien trækker op i EU s samlede arbejdsløshed ifølge Eurostat. Samlet set peger det på, at en renteforhøjelse fra den europæiske centralbank ligger et stykke ude i fremtiden. SAMLET KLIMAAFTALE PÅ COP21 Det lykkedes for verdens lande at nå en samlet aftale for klimaet under COP21 i Paris i midten af december I store træk går aftalen på at holde den globale opvarmning under 2 grader celsius i forhold til det pre-industrielle niveau. Det skal endvidere tilstræbes at holde stigningen på ca. 1,5 grader celsius. Aftalen er således skruet sammen, at de lande, som forurener mest, ligeledes forventes at yde den største indsats i forbindelse med at holde temperaturstigningen til et minimum. Den suverænt største udleder af CO2 i verden, målt på samlet udledning, er Kina efterfulgt af USA og Indien. Målt på CO2 udledning per capita forurenede Danmark dog kun en smule mindre end Kina i demonstrating an increasing wage divergence. In Denmark, the increasing Gini coefficient is to some extent yet another result of the financial crisis. As more and more people become unemployed, many will lose a significant part of their income, leading to a rise in the Gini coefficient. As the economy generally improves and unemployment decreases, the expectation must be that the coefficient will fall again. An International Perspective US FEDERAL RESERVE INCREASE INTEREST RATE For the first time in nine years, the US Federal Reserve increased the interest rate in mid-december The interest rate increase was 0.25 percentage point. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will follow this with additional interest rate increases throughout 2016 in a gradual move towards a normalisation of the fiscal policy. The interest rate increase from a very low level should be considered a sign of health for the US economy. The interest rate increase followed in the wake of generally sound job creation figures and an increase in the US inflation rate. Had Federal Reserve Chair Janet Louise Yellen instead chosen to maintain the interest rate level at the December meeting, this would have been taken as a sign of economic weakness. The point must be made, however, that the interest rate is still very low and that the American economy is far from being back at the expected long-term level. In Europe, inflation is still somewhat below the long-term target of 2% annually in many places. In addition, unemployment is high in many places. The Mediterranean nations of Greece, Spain, and Italy especially contribute to the overall EU unemployment figure, according to Eurostat. Taken as a whole, the indication is that a European Central Bank interest rate increase is some time off into the future. COLLECTIVE CLIMATE AGREEMENT AT COP21 The nations of the world managed to reach a collective climate agreement at COP21 in Paris in mid-december Broadly speaking, the agreement is to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius compared with the pre-industrial level. Attempts will further be made to keep the increase to approx. 1.5 degrees Celsius. The nature of the agreement is such that those nations contributing most to pollution are expected also do the most in order to keep temperature rise to a minimum. The largest CO2 emitter by far worldwide, measured by total emissions, is China followed by the USA and India. When measuring CO2 emissions per capita, however, Denmark only polluted a little less than China in

18 Generelt forurener olieproducerende lande væsentligt mere end gennemsnittet målt per capita. Qatar topper således listen med 46 ton per capita i 2014, mens Kina kun udleder godt 7 ton. For at opnå det samlede klimamål er det vigtigt, at de mest forurenende lande, målt på samlet udledning, samt de lande, som udleder store mængder CO2 per capita, går forest. Danmarks position som lille samlet udleder med middel udledning per capita betyder således, at Danmarks bidrag til den samlede reduktion under alle omstændigheder bliver begrænset. Traditionelt har Danmark dog været et forgangsland når det kommer til grøn teknologi og det må forventes, at aftalen alt andet lige vil få en positiv effekt på dansk økonomi. Herudover kan aftalen ligeledes medføre endnu strengere energikrav til bl.a. nybyggede ejendomme på sigt. OLIEPRISEN LIGGER FORTSAT PÅ ET MEGET LAVT NIVEAU Siden sommeren 2014 er prisen pr. tønde råolie styrtdykket verden over og den lå primo januar 2015 på under halvdelen af prisen i juni året før. Oliepriserne steg i igen i løbet af de første måneder af 2015 og det så ud til, at de igen ville komme op på et holdbart niveau. Prisen vendte dog igen og den lå primo 2016 nær 30 USD pr. tønde. Dette betyder, at olieprisen samlet er faldet ca. 30% det seneste år. Mange olieproducenter sælger lige nu olie med store underskud og det nuværende prisniveau er derfor ikke holdbart i længden I sidste års udgave af Det Danske Ejendomsmarked henviste vi til en artikel fra Børsen.dk, hvor ledende økonomer forudsagde, at olieprisen ville stige til et niveau på USD pr. tønde i løbet af Flere af de adspurgte mente dog, at der meget vel kunne komme yderligere fald i første halvår. Det har siden vist sig, at olieprisen samlet endte med et relativt stort fald igennem Hvordan olieprisen udvikler sig i 2016 er usikkert, men bunden ser efterhånden ud til at være nået. Som udgangspunkt kommer de lave oliepriser virksomheder og forbrugere til gode gennem lavere produktionsomkostninger og lavere forbrugerpriser. Der er dog ligeledes store usikkerhedsmomenter i det på længere sigt uholdbare prisniveau. Fortsætter de lave oliepriser er det kun et spørgsmål om tid før nogle af olieproducenterne begynder at bukke under. Det kan potentielt lede til en bølge af misligholdt gæld og være startskuddet på en større international krise. Den lave oliepris skyldes et mismatch mellem udbud og efterspørgsel efter olie. Der har været et stort fokus på udbudssiden, hvor bl.a. OPEC stædigt har fastholdt en høj produktion af olie. Efterspørgselssiden er dog mindst ligeså vigtig. En lav efterspørgsel efter olie kan indikere at bl.a. produktionen i verdens store oliekonsumerende lande som Kina, USA, Indien og Rusland ikke er på det forventede niveau. Den lave oliepris kan således være en indikator for at verdensøkonomien er langt fra et generelt opsving. Generally speaking, oil-producing countries polluted significantly more than average when measured per capita. Qatar is at the top of the list with 46 tonnes per capita in 2014, compared with just over 7 tonnes for China. In order to achieve the overall climate target, it is important that the most polluting countries, measured by total emissions, and those countries with the highest per capita CO2 emissions take the lead. Denmark s position as a small overall emitter with medium per capita emissions means, therefore, that Denmark s contribution to the overall reduction will be limited, all things told. Traditionally, however, Denmark has been an instigator in relation to green technology, and the expectation must be that, all other things being equal, the agreement will have a positive effect on the Danish economy. In addition, the agreement could lead to even tighter energy demands made on, among other things, new builds in the longer term. OIL PRICES STILL VERY LOW Since the summer of 2014, the price of crude oil has plummeted worldwide, and at the start of January 2015 oil cost less than half what it did in June the previous year. Oil prices rose again during the first two months of 2015, and indications were that they would return to a sustainable level. However, the price started falling again, and by the beginning of 2016, it was close to USD 30 per barrel. This means a total drop in the oil price of approx. 30% in the past year. Many oil producers are currently selling oil with massive losses, meaning that the current price level is not sustainable in the longer term. In last year s issue of The Danish Property Market, we made reference to an article on Børsen.dk in which leading economists predicted a rise in the price of oil to some USD per barrel during Several respondents, however, believed that further price drops were possible during the first half of the year. As we have since seen, the overall oil price development was a relatively strong drop throughout The oil price development for 2016 is uncertain, but it does appear that it is clear to bottoming out. As a starting point, lower oil prices will benefit businesses and consumers as a result of lower production costs and lower consumer prices. The long-term unsustainable price level, however, gives rise to some rather large uncertainty issues. If the low oil prices are maintained, it will only be a question of time before some of the oil producers go under. This could potentially lead to a wave of non-performing debt obligations and signal the start of a larger, international crisis. The low price of oil is caused by the lack of match between the supply of and demand for oil. The supply side has been very active, and OPEC among others has maintained a high oil production. The 18 Det danske ejendomsmarked The Danish Property Market