Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Danmark 12. september 2013

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1 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Danmark 12. september 2013 Vigtigste begivenheder Markederne: Blandet stemning på aktiemarkederne med overvejende små stigninger på de fleste markeder. Obligationsrenterne falder mest tydeligt i USA ovenpå succesfuld 10-årige auktion. EUR styrket overfor USD ovenpå mindre bekymring om Syrien-krisen. USA: Antal realkreditansøgninger styrtdykker. Kerry indleder to-dages møde med den russiske udenrigsminister Lavrov om situationen i Cypern. Kina: Premierminister Li Keqiang giver udtryk for, at vækstvending endnu ikke har solidt fundament og at stimulans ikke løser Kinas mere strukturelle udfordringer. Elektricitetsproduktionen stiger til rekordniveau. Japan: Skuffende maskinordrer indikerer opbremsning i investeringsaktiviteten gående ind i 3. kvartal. Korea: Bank of Korea fastholdt som ventet renten uændret på nattens rentemøde. Bedringstegn i økonomien og laveste inflation siden 1999 baner vejen for en uændret rente. Dagen i dag byder på tal for industriproduktionen i euroområdet, hvor der ventes en opbremsning i produktionsvæksten. Derudover byder USA på den ugentlige opgørelse over antal nytilmeldte ledige. Dagens vigtigste begivenheder Dagen i dag byder på en relativt tynd nøgletalskalender. Fra euroområdet modtager vi tal for industriproduktionen, der har en vis interesse idet det især ser ud til at være industrien, som især står bag den seneste bedring i BNP-væksten i 2. kvartal. Vi forventer umiddelbart, at produktionsvæksten bremser op i juli og måske bliver let negativ. Det er blevet antydet af nationale produktionsdata fra Tyskland, som viste et overraskende stort fald på 3,4% m/m (største fald siden januar 2009). Desuden har diverse industribarometre peget på en opbremsning. De samme barometre har dog antydet, at produktionen igen vil løfte sig i de efterfølgende par måneder. Senere på dagen byder USA på den sædvanlige ugentlige opgørelse over antal nytilmeldte ledige, hvor der ventes en lille stigning til personer fra tidligere personer. På den politiske front Højdepunkter siden sidst Gårsdagens kalender var temmelig lidt tynd med hensyn til økonomiske begivenheder, og det mest interessante var således den ugentlige opgørelse over realkreditansøgningerne i sidste uge. Ansøgningerne kom særdeles svagt ud med et fald på 13,5%, hvilket var frygtet idet renterne i sidste uge steg yderligere. De stigende realkreditrenter har den seneste tid drevet ansøgningerne ned i det laveste niveau i omkring 2½ år, men faldet var indtil gårsdagens opgørelse bremset lidt op. Det bliver interessant at følge om opbremsningssignalerne på boligmarkedet fortsætter. Blandt de mest interessante nyheder fra Kina var Premierminister Li Keqiangs udtalelser om, at den økonomiske vending ikke har et solidt fundament og samtidig advarede han mod, at stimulans ikke vil løse de mere strukturelle udfordringer som Kina står overfor. Han gentog, at Kina vil være i stand til at nå sit officielle vækstmål på 7,5% i år. Li gentog sit commitment til at gå videre med finansielle reformer og herunder påbegyndelsen af liberaliseringen af de store statsejede finansielle selskaber. På nøgletalssiden var der yderligere positivt nyt at spore idet elektricitetsproduktionen i august nåede rekordhøjt niveau. Væksten i elektricitetsproduktionen steg til 13,4% y-o-y fra 8,1% i juli. Elektricitetsproduktionen er en af de indikatorer som premierminister Li Keqiang har sagt, at han følger nøje når han skal vurdere aktiviteten i økonomien. Euroområdet med bekymrende opbremsning i industrien % m/m Industriproduktion, vægtet Tyskland og Frankrig Industriproduktion, euroområdet Source: Reuters EcoWin indleder USA og Rusland et to-dages møde mellem John Kerry og den russiske udenrigsminister Sergei Lavrov om situationen i Cypern. USA ønsker at teste troværdigheden af det russiske forslag om at få Syrien til at skaffe sig af med sine kemiske våben. Senest erkendte Syrien for første gang at de har kemiske våben og at de er villige til at afhænde dem. Hjemlig modstand mod en militæraktion har fået præsident Obama til at søge en mere diplomatisk vej, men kritiske stemmer udtrykker pessimisme om det russiske forslag med tanke på, at Putin igennem flere år har været en støtte til den syriske regering anført af Præsident Bashar al-assad. Ellers byder dagen på taler fra centralbankmedlemmer fra den Europæiske Centralbank, Bank of England og Bank of England. Her til morgen har vi modtaget opgørelsen over maskinordrer i Japan i juli. Opgørelsen skuffede betydeligt med en nul-vækst m-o-m langt under forventningerne om en stigning på 2,4% - hvilket dog trak årsvæksten op i 6,5% fra 4,9%. Der var ventet en fremgang i årsvæksten til 7,7%. Den svage opgørelse kommer efter en endnu svagere opgørelse i juni. Det er dog værd at bemærke, at maskinordrerne er temmelig volatile og det er derfor ikke hensigtsmæssigt at tildele enkeltobservationer for stor vægt. Der har dog stadig været tale om bedring i investeringsaktiviteten i 2. kvartal til trods for de seneste måneders skuffende opgørelser for maskinordrerne. Samlet set var ordrerne i 2. kvartal stærkere end i 1. kvartal. Bank of Korea fastholdt som ventet renten uændret (2,5%) på nattens rentemøde. Det er 4. måned i træk med en uændret rente efter banken senest i maj satte renten ned med 0,25%-point. Økonomien viser bedringstegn og inflationsudsigterne tyder ser fornuftige ud. Den aktuelle inflation er på det laveste niveau siden 1999 og tegn på stabilisering i Kina bidrager til at løfte de økonomiske udsigter. I modsætning til de fleste andre emerging markets så nyder Korea godt af fortsat tillid fra internationale investorer i form af stabil indstrømning af kapital. Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, , jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum, , ragu02@handelsbanken.dk, Thomas Haugaard, , thje01@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale.

2 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,10% / indeks 624,05) endte dagen med et lille fald på en dag hvor det var sparsomt med nyheder som kunne rykke på markedsstemningen. I toppen af indekset endte Tryg (+0,33% / kurs 493,00) og Danske Bank (+0,34% / kurs 119,70) med beskedne stigninger. Pandora (+0,05% / kurs 222,40) havde endnu en god dag efter perioden for, hvornår kapitalfonden Prometheus, som fortsat ejer 40% af aktierne, udløb i mandags. Pandora-aktien er i denne uge steget med omkring 9%. GN Store Nord (+0,17% / kurs 119,40) havde ligeledes en god dag efter et amerikansk finanshus startede dækning på aktien med anbefalingen køb. I modsatte ende af indekset endte Vestas (-1,29% / kurs 141,60) uden at der dog var nogen selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Obligationsrenterne trak nedad i går på en dag uden nævneværdige økonomiske begivenheder. Faldet var mest tydeligt i USA efter en 21 mia. USD stor auktion over 10-årige statspapirer tiltrak den største efterspørgsel siden marts i år. Der var som nævnt ikke væsentlige økonomiske nøgletal eller begivenheder til derudover at sætte nævneværdig retning på obligationsmarkedet. Blandt de mest interessante var antal realkreditansøgninger fra USA, der efter en vis stabilisering faldt kraftigt tilbage i foregående uge. Stigende realkreditrenter har lagt en dæmper på realkreditansøgningerne og det afgørende punkt bliver i hvilket omfang dette kommer til at vise sig på boligmarkedsaktiviteten. EUR endte dagen styrket overfor USD på en dag uden nævneværdige økonomiske nøgletal eller begivenheder i øvrigt. Svækkelsen fulgte i kølvandet på aftagende bekymringer om situationen i Syrien, hvor USA og Rusland i dag indleder et 2- dages møde. Det russiske forslag om en kemisk afvæbning af Syrien er på bordet og USA ønsker at vurdere validiteten af dette forslag før Obama bestemmer sig for om han skal forsøge at gå videre med sine militærplaner til Senatet og Kongressen. Obama har derfor opfordret Kongressen til at vente med en afstemning om hans forslag til efter mødet med den russiske udenrigsminister Lavrov. Kritiske stemmer understreger, at det russiske forslag ikke er særligt troværdigt eftersom Putin i de seneste år har støttet den syriske regering anført af Præsident Bashar al-assad. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Aktier Aktuelt %-Æ ndring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP USD/JPY Stoxx EUR/USD FTSE EUR/DKK S&P USD/DKK Nasdaq SEK/DKK Brasil NOK/DKK Hang Seng CHF/DKK Nikkei GBP/DKK årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt Æ ndring Aktuelt Ændring USA CRB EUR Brent oil (1Mf) DKK Gold (spot) Pengemarkedsrenter EURIBOR3M 0.22 CHF3M 0.02 CIBOR3M 0.27 EURIBOR6M 0.34 CHF6M 0.08 CIBOR6M 0.53 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Svag vækst fremadrettet kombineret med en gældskrise, der stadig har potentialet til at blusse op, betyder, at vi fortsat forventer nye lempelsestiltag fra ECB. Vi forventer, at Nationalbanken forventes at ville følge ECB med ned på renten, men ikke i samme omfang. Federal Reserve ventes at påbegynde udfasning af kvantiative lempelser inden længe, derudover forventer vi ikke at banken vil vente til 2015 som Fed pt. skitserer med en første renteforhøjelse. EUR ses at komme under pres fra en relativ svag økonomi samt den fortsatte usikkerhed i forbindelse med gældskrisen kombineret med muligheden for yderligere lempelser af pengepolitikken. Så vi venter en svagere EUR over for USD over de kommende 12 måneder, da USA ventes at påbegynde en nedtrapning af den lempelige pengepoltik. Vi vurderer, at der fremadrettet kan blive tale om en stærkere NOK og SEK. Herunder er mulige renteforhøjelser fra landendes centralbanker så småt ved at dukke op i horisonten. Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK september

3 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 09/09/13 01:50 Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ 2Q F 3.9% % 3.8% 09/09/13 03:30 Kina CPI YoY Aug 2.6% % 2.6% 09/09/13 07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Aug /09/13 07:45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Aug % 3.2% 3.2% 09/09/13 08:30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Aug /09/13 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jul 8.0B 8.0B 7.2B 6.9B 09/09/13 09:00 Danmark Current Account Balance Jul 12.5B 12.5B 15.2B 13.0B 09/09/13 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Sep /09/13 17:00 USA Fed's Williams to Speak 09/09/13 21:00 USA Consumer Credit Jul $12.700B -- $11.925B $10.437B 10/09/13 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Aug 36% -- 37%(r) 40% 10/09/13 07:30 Kina Industrial Production YoY Aug 9.9% % 10.4% 10/09/13 07:30 Kina Retail Sales YoY Aug 13.3% % 13.4% 10/09/13 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.5%/-0.5% %/-0.2% -0.6%/-1.8% 10/09/13 09:00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Aug %/0.6% -0.3%/0.4% 0.1%/0.1% 10/09/13 09:00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug %/0.7% -0.3%/0.6% 0.1%/0.4% 10/09/13 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.5%/-3.6% 1.9%/-1.7% 3.0%/-4.0% -0.4%/-5.2% 10/09/13 10:00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.4%/3.0% /2.9% 0.4%/3.0% -0.1%/3.2% 10/09/13 10:00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Aug -0.6%/1.9% 0.4%/1.8% -0.1%/2.5% 10/09/13 13:30 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug SEP Kina New Yuan Loans Aug 730.0B B 711.3B SEP Kina Aggregate Financing RMB Aug 950.0B B B 11/09/13 08:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug F 0.0%/1.5% %/1.5% 0.0%/1.5% 11/09/13 09:00 EMU EU's Barroso Gives State-of-Union Speech 11/09/13 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Jul 7.8% % 7.7% 11/09/13 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 06. Sep % /09/13 01:50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) Jul 2.4%/7.8% %/4.9% 0.0%/6.5 12/09/13 09:30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.1%/0.1% 0.1%/0.1% -0.1%/0.1% 12/09/13 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.1%/1.1% 0.1%/1.2% -0.1%/1.2% 12/09/13 09:30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Aug 7.9% 8.0% 7.8% 12/09/13 11:00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jul 0.3%/ %/ 0.7%/0.3% 12/09/13 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 07. Sep 330K K 12/09/13 14:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.5% %/1.0% 12/09/13 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 08. Sep /09/13 20:00 USA Monthly Budget Statement Aug -$155.0B /09/13 14:30 USA PPI (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.2%/1.3% %/2.1% 13/09/13 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.1%/1.3% %/1.2% 13/09/13 14:30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Aug 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 13/09/13 14:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group Aug 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 13/09/13 15:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet 13/09/13 15:55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Sep P /09/13 16:00 USA Business Inventories Jul 0.3% % 12. september

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