Indeks Indeks % kk Indeks 22. november 2013 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fredagen ser ud til at blive af den stille slags, hvor det eneste interessante økonomiske nøgletal ser ud til at blive IFO-instituttets erhvervsbarometer for november i Tyskland. Her venter vi en lille stigning, efter at indekset lidt overraskende faldt i oktober trukket ned af mere nedtonede vurdering af fremtiden blandt virksomhederne. Grundlæggende ser vi således ingen grund til, at Ifoindekset står over for en vending til det værre, idet de generelt bedre globale økonomiske aktivitet bør støtte industrien, mens lav arbejdsløshed bør understøtte den indenlandske aktivitet. Det var netop fremstillingssektoren og detailsektoren som skuffede med fald i oktober. Derudover har vi tidligere på ugen modtaget ganske pæne forventninger til økonomien for i november i henhold til ZEW-instituttet samt i gårsdagen PMI-indeks. Med den ventede stigning i IFOindekset, herunder i forventingsdelen, indikerer det ind til videre en lille vækstbedring i 4. kvartal oven på det mindre tilbagefald i 3. kvartal (se figur). Derudover skal tre medlemmer af ECB s Styrelsesråd tale i dag. Det drejer sig om franske Noyer, østrigske Nowotny og ECB s cheføkonom belgiske Praet. Her vil fokus især være på de om medlemmerne kommer ind på fremtidige politik-muligheder. Praet var således i sidste uge inde på at kvantitative lempelser er en mulighed for ECB. Tysk IFO peger på mindre vækstbedring i 4. kv. 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 115,0 110,0 105,0 100,0 95,0 90,0 85,0 80,0 75,0 BNP IFO's forventningsindeks Source: Reuters EcoWin Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Europa tynget fra åbning aktiekurser falder mens renter stiger. Omvendt steg aktiekurserne i USA og renterne faldt tilbage. JPY svækkes. USA: Senatets Bankkomité vedtog (14 for 8 imod) som ventet at indstille Janet Yellen til Fed-chef posten. Derudover blev der vedtaget en regelændring i Senatet der betyder, at hun blot skal have majoritet af stemmerne i Senatet (og ikke længere 60) når det fulde Senat skal stemme endeligt om hendes indsættelse, hvilket sandsynligvis bliver 2. uge i december. Antallet af nytilmeldte ledige faldt mere end ventet til 323.000 personer i sidste uge. Dermed er antallet af ledige igen nede på det lave niveau vi så (laveste siden januar 2008) inden statistikken gik i selvsving over september og oktober, bla. forstyrret af computerproblemer. Så det var positivt nyt om end tallene dog kan være forstyrret af Veterans Day. Bloomberg-forbrugertilliden faldt en smule tilbage i sidste uge. Markits PMI-indeks steg mere end ventet til 54,3 i november og retter dermed lidt ind efter det seneste mere positive ISM-indeks. Omvendt skuffede Philadelphia Fed s tilsvarende regionale barometer da det faldt uventet kraftigt i november til det laveste niveau siden maj, og dette har bedre fulgt ISM på det sidste. Fed s Bullard foretrækker at fortsætte med QE og ser det som usandsynligt at Fed vil sænke renten på bankernes overskudsreserver medmindre noget usædvanligt sker. Lacker ser QE-udfasning i dec. -mar. Euroområdet: Det sammenfattende økonomiske Composite PMI-indeks skuffede i november, hvor det uventet faldt en anelse til 51,5 fra forrige 51,9. Det var anden måned i streg indekset faldt og meget tyder på at den økonomiske aktivitet er røget ind i en lidt mere blød periode. Det var Service PMIindekset som trak ned, mens fremstillingsindekset steg en anelse. Samtidigt var det interessant at de samtidige nationale indeks fra Frankrig og Tyskland viste stigninger i Tyskland, mens både industri og især service skuffede i Frankrig med niveauer på under 50 indikerende aktivitetsfald (jf. figuren). Derudover var det skuffende at Forbrugertilliden i euroområdet faldt tilbage i november efter 11 måneders stigning. ECB-chef Draghi udtalte, at den økonomiske vækst er svag, skrøbelig og ujævn, og siger at centralbanken naturligvis er klar over at rentesænkningen øger visse bekymringer. Han understregede desuden, at rentesænkningen ikke skete på baggrund af ECB ser deflationsrisici er ved at materialisere sig. Danmark: Forbrugertilliden faldt som vi ventede det en smule til 4,0 i november fra 4,6 i oktober. Derudover modtog vi et nyt skuffende fald i detailsalget i oktober, herunder var det ikke mindst skuffende at beklædning faldt tilbage. Således er der stadig ikke de store tegn på at den positive forbrugertillid smitter positivt af på detailsalget. Storbritannien: De offentlige finanser skuffede en smule i oktober, med et nettolånebehov på 8,1 mia. GBP. Det er dog under sidste års 8,2 mia. GBP og låntagningen ser fortsat ud til at komme bedre end ventet for helåret. Ydermere modtog vi stærk ordreindikator fra CBI, som i november nåede det højeste niveau siden 1995. Det øger optimismen om at opsvinget i industrien tager yderligere til. Euro-PMI: Frankrig trækker ned / Tyskland op 65,0 60,0 55,0 50,0 45,0 40,0 10 11 12 13 Serviceindeks, Frankrig Serviceindeks, Tyskland Industriindeks, Tyskland Industriindeks, Frankrig 65,0 60,0 55,0 50,0 45,0 40,0 Source: Reuters EcoWin For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 22. november 2013 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,25% / indeks 652,68) endte i positivt terræn efter at have startet dagen i negativt territorium efter, at den amerikanske centralbanks (Fed) udtalelser, onsdag aften indikerede, at en neddrosling af deres månedlige obligationsopkøbsprogram er tættere på end ventet. I toppen af indekset endte GN Store Nord (+2,60% / kurs 134,00) efter en række internationale finanshuse hævede kursmålet på aktien. Danske Bank (+1,41% / kurs 122,00) fulgte godt med på trods af at et international finanshus sænkede anbefalingen på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte forsikringsselskaberne Tryg (- 1,10% / kurs 495,50) og Topdanmark (-0,49% / kurs 142,80) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Uden for C20-indekset var Rockwool (+2,79% / kurs 902,00) blandt andet i fokus efter en række finanshuse hævede kursmålet og anbefalingen på aktien efter gårsdagens kvartalsregnskab, som var stærkere end ventet. Royal Unibrew (+6,91% / kurs 743,00) efter bryggeriet leverede et solidt regnskab og i samme forbindelse kom med en opjustering af omsætningen og indtjeningen (EBIT). Renter Som ventet pegede obligationsrenterne opad i Europa fra morgenstunden, hvilket desuden blev understøttet af ganske pæne overordnede PMI-indeks for euroområdet i november. De tyske renter steg derudover mere end de franske, hvilket skyldtes skuffende franske PMI-indeks. Ydermere steg britiske renter ganske pænt efter at CBI offentliggjorde en robust ordreindikator for industrien. Rentestigningen blev dog begrænset senere på dagen efter at euroområdet skuffende viste fald i forbrugertilliden for første gang i et år. Senere på dagen overgik fokus på USAbegivenheder. Vi lagde her ud med positive nøgletal i form af faldende nytilmeldte ledige samt en uventet stor stigning i Markit-PMI. Dette blev dog afløst af svage tal for forbrugertillid (Bloombergs) samt et uventet stort fald i Philadelphia Fed indekset. Sammen med godkendelse af Yellen i Senatets bankkomité pressede det renterne ned i USA sidst på dagen, som endte med et rentefald her. Valuta EUR indhentede torsdag lidt af det tabte mod USD, hvilket blev understøttet af større end ventet stigning i euroområdets PMI-indeks samt af Draghi, da han udtalte at ECB var klar over bekymringer i forbindelse med seneste rentesænkning. Det overskyggede at forbrugertilliden skuffede i november. Senere på dagen modtog vi nyheder fra USA af lidt blandet karakter. På den ene side faldt nye ledige og Markit s PMI-indeks steg. På den anden side skuffede Philly Fed -indekset og Janet Yellen blev (som ventet) godkendt i Senatets bankkomité. GBP rimelig stabil mod EUR på trods af pæne tal for offentlige finanser samt stærkt CBI-ordreindeks. JPY svækkes efter at BoJ-chef Kuroda udtaler, at JPY ikke er overdrevet svag, samt han fortsat vil gøre sit bedste for at begrænse stigning i de lange renter. JPY svækkes til det laveste niveau mod EUR i fire år. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 652,7 0,25 USD/JPY 101,1 0,370 USA 2,78-0,02 CRB 275,6 1,64 Stoxx600 322,4-0,15 EUR/USD 1,348 0,005 Euroområdet 1,74 0,03 Brent oil (1M fut) 109,9 2,02 FTSE 6681,3 0,00 USD/DKK 5,535-0,020 Danmark 1,83 0,01 Gold (spot) 1244,4-0,29 S&P500 1795,9 0,81 CHF/DKK 6,056 0,002 Nasdaq 3969,2 1,22 GBP/DKK 8,963 0,027 Hang Seng 23695,3 0,49 SEK/DKK 0,835 0,001 Nikkei 15381,7 0,10 NOK/DKK 0,908 0,002 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,250 2,78 2,75 2,80 3,00 EUR/USD 1,348 1,34 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,74 1,80 1,80 1,80 USD/JPY 101,1 100,0 102,0 103,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,82 2,70 2,80 3,00 USD/DKK 5,535 5,57 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 1,83 1,95 1,95 2,00 EUR/DKK 7,459 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,25 2,25 2,50 2,50 2,60 SEK/DKK 0,8349 0,848 0,887 0,898 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 2,86 3,00 3,00 3,10 NOK/DKK 0,9085 0,921 0,920 0,925 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 22. november 2013 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 19-11-13 H+H International 3. kvartal 20-11-13 DFDS 3. kvartal 20-11-13 NKT Holding 3.kvartal 20-11-13 Rockwool 3.kvartal 21-11-13 Royal Unibrew 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 18-11-13 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Nov -- -- 2.8%/3.8% -2.4%/4.0% 18-11-13 02:30 Kina China October Property Prices 18-11-13 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Nov 55 54 54(r) 54 18-11-13 18:15 USA Fed's Dudley, Plosser speaks 19-11-13 01:45 USA Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks 19-11-13 03:00 Kina Foreign Direct Investment YoY Oct 6,1% -- 4.9% 1,2% 19-11-13 10:00 Norge GDP Mainland QoQ 3Q 0,4% 0.5% 0.2% 0,5% 19-11-13 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Nov 30.8 30,0 29.7 28,7 19-11-13 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Nov 54.0 55,0 52.8 54,6 19-11-13 20:15 USA Fed's Evans Speaks 20-11-13 00:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Oct - 875.5B -- - 1128.0B - 1072.5B 20-11-13 01:00 USA Fed's Bernanke Speaks to Economists Club in Washington 20-11-13 03:00 Kina Conference Board China Leading Economic Index 20-11-13 10:30 UK Bank of England Minutes 20-11-13 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 15. nov -- -- -1.8% -2.3% 20-11-13 14:30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Oct 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%(r) 0.4% 20-11-13 14:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group Oct 0,3% 0.2% 0.3%(r) 0.4% 20-11-13 14:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.0%/1.0% 0.0%/ 0.2%/1.2% -0.1%/1.0% 20-11-13 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.1%/1.7% 0.1%/ 0.1%/1.7% 0.1%/1.7% 20-11-13 16:00 USA Fed's Dudley, Bullard speaks 20-11-13 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Oct 5.15M -- 5.29M 5.12M 20-11-13 20:00 USA Fed Releases Minutes from Oct 29-30 FOMC Meeting 21-11-13 02:45 Kina HSBC Flash PMI Manufacturing NOVP 50.8 50.9 50.4 21-11-13 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Oct -- 0.3%/ -0.3%/-2.4% -0.6%/-2.0% 21-11-13 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Nov -- 4.0 4.6 4.0 21-11-13 10:00 EMU PMI Manufacturing Nov A 51.5 51.3 51.3 51.5 21-11-13 10:00 EMU PMI Services Nov A 51.8 51.7 51.6 50.9 21-11-13 10:00 EMU PMI Composite Nov A 52.0 52.0 51.9 51.5 21-11-13 10:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions Oct 7.3B -- 11.1B 8.1B 21-11-13 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 15. nov 335K -- 344K 323K 21-11-13 14:30 USA PPI (MoM/YoY) Oct -0.2%/0.3% -- -0.1%/0.3% -0.2%/0.3% 21-11-13 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.1%/1.3% -- 0.1%/1.2% 0.2%/1.4% 21-11-13 14:58 USA Markit US PMI Preliminary Nov 52.3 -- 51.8 54.3 21-11-13 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 17. nov -- -- -33.9-34.6 21-11-13 16:00 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Nov 16,0 -- 19.8 6.5 21-11-13 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Nov A -14.0 -- -14.5-15.4 21-11-13 18:30 USA Fed's Lacker, Bullard speaks on Economy 21-11-13 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement 22-11-13 08:00 Tyskland GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q F 0.3%/1.1% -- 0.3%/1.1% 22-11-13 09:00 EMU ECB's Noyer, Praet, Nowotny speaks 22-11-13 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Nov 107.7 107.6 107.4 Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, +45 33 41 82 03, jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, +45 33 41 86 19, ragu02@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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