23. maj 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fra USA får vi i dag tal for salget af nye boliger. Boligsalget har vist svaghedstegn de seneste måneder, hvilket især er blevet kædet sammen med det usædvanligt kolde vejr i 1. kvartal. I april bedredes vejret, hvilket kunne ses i gårsdagens tal for salget af eksisterende boliger. Salget steg i forhold til marts, men dig lidt mindre end ventet. Antallet af realkreditansøgninger peger også på fremgang i boligsalget. Hvis også salget af nye boliger stiger i dag, kan Fed droppe sine bekymringer for tilstanden på boligmarkedet, og scenen er sat for fortsat nedtrapning af de kvantitative lempelser. Ifo-erhvervstillidsindekset fra Tyskland for maj offentliggøres i dag, og vi venter et lille fald til 110,5 fra forrige 111,2. Det vil være i tråd med PMIindikatoren for Tyskland som blev offentliggjort i går og som var uændret i forhold til april. PMI er dog bedre korreleret med Ifo-indekset for den nuværende situation end med forventningsindekset. Konjunkturbarometeret fra det tyske ZEW-institut (baseret på stemningen blandt de finansielle aktører) har peget på yderligere svaghed i den kommende tid, idet især forventningsindekset er faldet. Det tyder på at Ifo-forventningsindekset vil falde i dagens tal (se figur). Tyskland: Ifo-forventningsindeks under pres Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne i Europa og USA bød på små stigninger i går. Japan er i plus her til morgen. Statsrenterne faldt lidt i Tyskland, men var stort set uændret i USA. EUR fortsatte svækkelsen over for USD. Kina: Det forlyder, at en række byer har fået lov af de centrale myndigheder til at lempe på reglerne for boligkøb og finansiering. Det vil givetvis dæmpe den opbremsning, som er i gang på ejendomsmarkedet. Opbremsningen skyldes således i høj grad de restriktioner, som myndighederne har indført gennem de sidste år for at dæmpe udviklingen. Thailand: Det thailandske militær har overtaget magten og erklæret undtagelsestilstand og udgangsforbud i Thailand. Ukraine: Tolv soldater meldes dræbt af pro-russiske militser. Putin har endnu en gang lovet at trække sine tropper tilbage fra den ukrainske grænse. USA: Der blev solgt 4,65 mio. eksisterende boliger i april. Det tilsvarende tal var i marts 4,59 mio., mens der var ventet et tal på 4,69 mio. i april. Der var fremgang at spore i Markits PMI-indeks for fremstillingsindustrien i maj, som overraskende steg til 56,2 fra 55,4 i marts. Der var kun ventet en lille stigning til 55,5. Normalt benytter man det mere anerkendte ISMindeks til at vurderer udsigterne for industriproduktionen, men Markitindekset har bedre fanget de faktiske udsving i fremstillingsproduktionen de seneste måneder. Euroområdet: PMI composite faldt marginalt til 53,9 fra 54,0 i april på linje med konsensusforventningen. Indekset for fremstillingsindustrien faldt markant fra 53,4 til 52,5. Det er nok blandt andet den stærke EUR og måske opbremsning i en række Emerging Markets-økonomier, som rammer den eksportfølsomme industrisektor. Serviceindekset steg til gengæld til 53,5 fra 53,1, hvilket peger på at den indenlandske efterspørgsel i euroområdet kan fortsætte fremgangen. Fransk composite PMI faldt under 50, mens tysk var uændret 56,1. Storbritannien: Andet estimat af BNP i 1. kvartal bekræftede flashestimatets 0,8% q/q BNP-vækst. Underkomponenterne, som blev tilgængelige i går, viste, at væksten er bredt funderet. Mest opmuntrende er det, at erhvervsinvesteringerne fortsat udvikler sig stærkt. Det giver grund til at tro, at opsvinget kan fortsætte. Danmark: Omsætningen i detailsektoren udviklede sig stort set fladt i april ligesom i de foregående tre måneder. Det var positivt, da flere indikatorer havde peget på en mere negativ udvikling. Set på varegrupper var det især den store gruppe af "andre forbrugsvarer" som trak op i april via en stigning på 0,4% i forhold til marts. Dermed fortsatte de positive takter fra de forrige par måneder. "Fødevarer og andre dagligvarer" udviklede sig fladt i april, mens "beklædning mv." skuffede med et nyt fald på 1,3% m/m - et fald i stort set samme størrelse som i marts. Euroområdet: PMI composite faldt lidt i naj For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. maj 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,55% / indeks 797,26) endte i positivt territorium og fortsatte dermed de seneste par dages rekordjagt. Den positive stemning var primært drevet af en del bedre end ventet PMI tal fra den kinesiske fremstillingssektor. I toppen af indekset endte blandt andet Vestas (+1,66% / kurs 282,00) efter de er i betragtning som mulig leverandør af vindmøller til et amerikansk projekt på 3000 MW. Pandora (+0,95% / kurs 413,20) fulgte godt med og fortsatte dermed den positive trend efter regnskabet i sidste uge. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,51% / kurs 13.900,00) endte for endnu en dag i træk højere efter en række finanshuse havde være ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet Jyske Bank (- 0,27% / kurs 293,80) endte stort set uændret på trods af, at den adm. direktør Anders Dam var ude og meddele, at banken styrer mod et historisk stort overskud i 1. halvår 2014 i omegnen af 3 mia. kr., som dog primært er forårsaget af engangsposter. Dagens kursmæssige taber blev FLSmidth (-0,44% / kurs 317,00) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter De europæiske statsrenter faldt lidt i går, måske fordi ECB s og Bundesbanks Weidman går gentog, at man overvejer ukonventionelle pengepolitiske tiltag. Samtidig lagde den geopolitiske situation i Ukraine og Thailand nok en dæmper på risikoappetitten. Nøgletallene, hvoraf det vigtigste var PMI for euroområdet, kom ud nogenlunde som ventet. Amerikanske renter var stort set uændret i går. Markits PMI-indeks steg mere end ventet, mens salget af eksisterende boliger steg men mindre end ventet. Grækenland fik her til morgen opgraderet sin kreditværdighed af Fitch med et notch, hvilket dog langt fra er nok til at undgå junk-status. De græske statsrenter steg en lille smule i går, men måske opgraderingen kan give rentefald i dag? Valuta EUR/USD fortsatte faldet i går, drevet af udtalelser af ECB styrelsesrådsmedlem og Bundesbank Weidmann om, at man overvejer ukonventionelle pengepolitiske tiltag. Bundesbank har tidligere været stærk modstander af flere lempelser, men det er nu anden gang inden for et par uger, at Weidmann har luftet vilje til at støtte op om lempelser. JPY svækkedes over for USD i går, måske som konsekvens af det stærkere end ventede kinesiske PMI. GBP er nogenlunde uændret efter styrkelsen i forgårs. De finansielle markeder ser tilsyneladende det thailandske militærkup som en stabiliserende faktor, idet thailandske bath, THB, blev styrket efter magtovertagelsen. Thailandske aktier er dog nede med 1½% her til morgen. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 797,3 0,55 USD/JPY 101,7 0,030 USA 2,55-0,01 CRB 307,6 1,64 Stoxx600 341,0 0,20 EUR/USD 1,365-0,002 Euroområdet 1,41-0,02 Brent oil (1M fut) 110,4-0,11 FTSE 6820,6-0,01 USD/DKK 5,470 0,009 Danmark 1,73-0,02 Gold (spot) 1294,7 0,08 S&P500 1892,5 0,24 CHF/DKK 6,111 0,003 Nasdaq 4154,3 0,55 GBP/DKK 9,229 0,007 Hang Seng 22930,1-0,10 SEK/DKK 0,828-0,002 Nikkei 14495,4 1,10 NOK/DKK 0,918 0,001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,500 2,55 2,65 3,20 3,50 EUR/USD 1,365 1,38 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,41 1,70 1,90 2,00 USD/JPY 101,8 102,0 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,65 2,85 3,00 3,25 USD/DKK 5,470 5,41 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,30 0,30 0,30 1,73 1,80 2,00 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,464 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,00 1,86 2,25 2,50 2,75 SEK/DKK 0,8281 0,811 0,847 0,887 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,25 2,73 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,9180 0,899 0,920 0,920 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 23. maj 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 20-05-14 Topdanmark 1. kvartal 21-05-14 A.P. Møller-Mærsk 1. kvartal 21-05-14 Alm. Brand 1. kvartal 22-05-14 Rockwool 1. kvartal 22-05-14 Simcorp 1. kvartal 22-05-14 ØK 1. kvartal 22-05-14 H+H International 1. kvartal 23-05-14 DFDS 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 19-05-14 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) May -- 2.6%/7.3% 3.6%/8.9% 19-05-14 01:50 Japan Machine Orders MoM Mar 5.8%/4.3% -- -4.6%/10.8% 19.1%/16.1% 19-05-14 09:30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Apr 8,0% 8,1% 8.1% 8,2% 20-05-14 08:00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.0%/-0.9% -- -0.3%/-0.9% 0.1%/-0.9% 20-05-14 10:00 Norge GDP Mainland QoQ 1Q 0,5% 0,5% 0.6% 0,5% 20-05-14 10:30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.3%/1.7% -- 0.2%/1.6% 0.4%/1.8% 20-05-14 10:30 UK CPI Core YoY Apr 1,8% -- 1.6% 2.0% 20-05-14 10:30 UK ONS House Price YoY Mar 9,6% -- 9.1% 8.0% 20-05-14 18:30 USA Fed's Plosser, Dudley Speaks on the Economy 21-05-14 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Apr - 650.7B -- - 1446.0B - 808.9B 21-05-14 Japan BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target May 21 270T -- 270T 270T 21-05-14 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator May 5,0 4.5 5.5 7.8 21-05-14 10:30 UK Bank of England Minutes 21-05-14 10:30 UK Retail Sales incl. Auto (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.4%/5.1% -- 0.1%/4.2% 1.3%/6.9% 21-05-14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May 16 -- -- 3.6% 0.9% 21-05-14 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence May A -8,3 -- -8.6-7,1 21-05-14 17:00 USA Fed's Yellen, George, Kocherlakota speaks 21-05-14 20:00 USA Fed Releases Minutes from April 29-30 FOMC Meeting 22-05-14 03:35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI May P -- -- 49.4 49.9 22-05-14 03:45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI May P 48,3 48.3 48.1 49.7% 22-05-14 08:45 Frankrig Manufacturing Confidence May 100 -- 100 99 22-05-14 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr -- -1.2%/-- -0.1%/-0.4% 0.1%/2.6% 22-05-14 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Mar 3,5% 3,5% 3.5% 3.3% 22-05-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May P 53,2 -- 53.4 52.5 22-05-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI May P 53,0 -- 53.1 53.5 22-05-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI May P 53,9 53,0 54.0 53.9 22-05-14 10:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions Apr 4.8B -- 6.7B 7.4B 22-05-14 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P 0.8%/3.1% -- 0.8%/3.1% 0.8%/3.1% 22-05-14 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Apr -- -- 0.20-0.32 22-05-14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May 17 310K -- 297K 326K 22-05-14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May 18 -- -- 34,9 34.1 22-05-14 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI May P 55.5 55.4 55.4 56.2 22-05-14 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Apr 4.68M -- 4.59M 4.65M 22-05-14 16:00 USA Leading Index Apr 0,4% -- 0.8% 0,4% 22-05-14 05/25 EMU European Parliament Elections Take Place Throughout EU 23-05-14 04:00 Kina Conference Board China April Leading Economic Index 23-05-14 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey May 103,0 102,5 102.6 23-05-14 09:30 EMU ECB's Lautenschlager Speaks in Madrid 23-05-14 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate May 110,9 110.5 111.2 23-05-14 10:00 Tyskland IFO Current Assessment May 115,4 -- 115.3 23-05-14 10:00 Tyskland IFO Expectations May 106,5 -- 107.3 23-05-14 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence May -- -- -4.6 23-05-14 16:00 USA New Home Sales Apr 420K 430K 384K Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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