Indeks % y/y Mia. EUR (omvendt akse) % 16. december 2013 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus I dag er der rimelig mange økonomiske begivenheder på kalenderen, hvilket nok er under indflydelse af, at der bliver tale om den sidste intensive uge inden julestilheden så småt ventes at sænke sig. Først og fremmest ser vi efter dagens PMI-indeks for euroområdet. Det samlede composite-indeks er faldet en smule tilbage de seneste to måneder, og konsensusforventningen er til en lille stigning i december. Vi forventer da også en nogenlunde uændret værdi i november på omkring 51,7, hvilket er blevet indikeret af den seneste mere stabile udvikling i rentekurven. Det baserer vi på, at PMI-serviceindekset ventes at stige end tand, mens PMI-fremstllingsindekset ses at kunne falde en smule tilbage. Således har vi senest modtaget lidt positive input fra arbejdsmarkedet, hvor ledigheden ser ud til at falde, hvilket bør understøtte optimismen i servicesektoren. På den anden side har det faktiske detailsalg skuffet noget på det sidste. Med hensyn til industrien, er vi fortsat af den opfattelse at den stærke EUR vil begrænse potentialet i afsætningsmulighederne. Derudover skal ECB-chef Mario Draghi i kvartalsvis høring i Europa-Parlamentets økonomiske komité. Det er dog usandsynligt at han vil sige noget der adskiller sig fra sidste uges tale i parlamentet. I USA vil der især være fokus på industriproduktionen. Denne ventes at stige med ganske pæne 0,5% m/m i november oven på det skuffende fald i oktober. Således er produktionen blevet peget op af de seneste stigninger i ISMindekset og især antallet af timer lagt i industrien. I forbindelse med industrien vil fokus også være på New York Fed s Empire-indeks, som kommer med første regionale bud på stemningen i industrien i december. Indekset er de seneste to måneder faldet uventet meget, og der ventes en mindre stigning tilbage til positivt området. Indekset er modsat ISM faldet de seneste fire måneder, og det bliver interessant om de fastholder at tegnene på at ISM skal nedad. I den forbindelse kan der også være lidt opmærksomhed på Markits foreløbige bud på PMI-fremstillingsindekset i december, om end dette indeks rettede ind efter ISM mere positive udvikling i den forrige opgørelse, hvilket har forringet indtrykket af indekset ledende egenskaber. Ellers er det en uge hvor det største fokus utvivlsomt vil være på USArentemøde onsdag aften, hvor vi hælder til at QE-udfasning påbegyndes. Derudover modtager forbrugerpriser, NAHB og boligsalg som de vigtigste USAnøgletal. Fra euroområdet modtager vi derudover tyske konjunkturbarometre i form af ZEW samt Ifo, og der vil være høj politisk aktivitet i forbindelse med finansministermøder og EU-topmøde sidst på ugen. Arbejdsmarked holder hånden under PMI USA: Industriproduktionen bedres i november Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne trækker ender fredagen med et lille fald på en rimelig stille dag. Obligationsrenterne trækker lidt ned, mens JPY styrkes og EUR svækkes en smule. Den let negative børsstemning fortsætter til morgen. USA: Producentpriserne faldt uventet med 0,1% m/m i november (ventet 0%), hvilket betød at den årlige inflationsrate steg mindre end ventet til 0,7% fra forrige 0,3%. Dermed peger producentpriserne dog fortsat på at forbrugerprisinflationen vil løfte sig en anelse i november efter at være faldet til blot 1% i oktober det laveste niveau siden 2009. Inflationsstigningen skyldes dog især basiseffekten af pæne fald i november sidste år. Kina: HSBC s foreløbige PMI-indeks for fremstillingsindustrien faldt uventet i december til 50,5 fra forrige 50.8. Det var især produktions- og beskæftigelsesforventningerne som trak ned. Det understreger at økonomiens vækst er aktuelt er under nedadgående pres. Mht. væksten så var det en smule overraskende, at regeringens årlige Nationale økonomiske arbejdskonference sluttede uden at komme med et bud på næste års vækstmål, men blot understregede at regeringen ville beholde et passende vækstmål. Måske det således vil blive fremlagt at en af regeringens ledende personer i de kommende uger. Japan: Tankan-indekset stiger lidt mere end ventet i Q4 og når dermed det højeste niveau siden 2007, trukket op af salgsforventningerne forud for momsforhøjelsen 1. april. Investeringsplanerne trak ned. Euroområdet: ECB annoncerede at LTRO-tilbagebetalingerne i denne uge steg til 22,7 mia. EUR, hvilket er det største beløb siden februar. Den store stigning skyldes nok at ECB har suspenderet muligheder for tilbagebetalinger i de to uger henover årsskiftet for at sikre ro om likviditeten. Likviditetsopsugningen lægger sandsynligvis yderligere pres på pengemarkedsrenterne, som fredag steg endnu en tand (jf. figur). Beskæftigelsen i euroområdet var uændret i 3. kvartal. Samtidigt blev beskæftigelsen revideret op i 2. kvartal, hvor den også viste sig flad mod et tidligere fald. Dermed er der tegn på at arbejdsmarkedet er ved at stabilisere sig oven på knapt to år med fald. Især Tyskland trak op i beskæftigelsen, mens Italien og Frankrig var flad og Spaniens faldt. Draghi gentager at har gjort hvad den kan for at stimulere væksten, men er parat til at gøre mere på et senere tidspunkt. Tyskland: SPD vedtager officielt at indgå i regering med CDU/CSU. Wolfgang Schaeuble fortsætter som finansminister. Jörg Asmussen stopper i ECB for at blive vicearbejdsminister i den nye regering. Storbritannien: Rightmoves boligprisindeks stiger med 5,4% y/y i december op fra 4.0% y/y i november. EUR: LTRO-tilbagbetaling presser renter 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 11 12 13 longer-term refinancing operations EURIBOR (360 Day), 3 Month Source: Reuters EcoWin Kina: PMI trækker nedad igen 65,0 62,5 60,0 57,5 55,0 52,5 50,0 47,5 45,0 42,5 40,0 LTRO I & II 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 1,75 1,50 1,25 1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 BNP PMI-fremstilling fra HSBC Source: Reuters EcoWin 14 12 10 8 6 4 For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 16. december 2013 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,25% / indeks 647,48) endte ugens sidste handelsdag i moderat negativt terræn, i kølvandet på en uge der var præget af bekymringer blandt investorerne for om den amerikanske centralbank (Fed) vil annoncere en påbegyndelse af en nedtrapning af deres månedlige obligationsopkøbsprogram i forbindelse med denne uges Fed rentemøde. I toppen af indekset endte bl.a. Vestas (+1,60% / kurs 146,40) uden at der dog var nogen selskabsspecifikke nyheder. TDC (-0,00% / kurs 50,35) havde en knap så god dag selvom et større internationalt finanshus hævede deres anbefaling og kursmål på aktien. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-0,09% / kurs 54.450,00) var i fokus efter den ugentlige opgørelse for spotraterne på den vigtige Asien/Europa rute viste at spotraterne per tyvefods container er steget med 60,7%, hvilket svarer til at 80% af den varslede ratestigning for december indtil videre er slået igennem. I bunden af indekset endte blandt andet Carlsberg (-1,21% / kurs 572,00) på trods af at der ikke var nogen nævneværdige selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Der var tale om en rimelig stille fredag på obligationsmarkederne, hvor der ikke var synderlig vigtige nøgletal på programmet. Først på dagen steg renterne en smule i tysk og dansk regning, hvilket blev understøttet af stabile beskæftigelsestal for euroområdet i 3. kvartal kombineret med offentliggørelsen af en meget stor tilbagebetaling af LTRO er fra bankerne i euroområdet. Det stimulerede især den korte ende af rentekurven ligesom vi på ny så stigende pengemarkedsrenter i euroområdet. Senere på dagen trak renterne så nedad i forbindelse med at USA fremlagde en mere afdæmpet udvikling i producentpriserne end ventet og stemningen på aktiemarkederne generelt forsuredes. Således endte de tiårige renter dagen med et lille fald, mens de korte renter var sort set uændrede. Valuta Der var tale om en rimelig stille fredag på valutamarkederne. EUR blev dog svækket over en bred kam, herunder også mod JPY og USD. Det på trods af stabilisering i beskæftigelsesudviklingen, stigende pengemarkedsrenter på ny samt annoncering af en ganske betydelig LTRO-tilbagebetaling. GBP blev svækket efter den seneste styrkelses samt på kommentar fra BoE s cheføkonom Dale om at renterne vil forblive lave. I USA faldt Producentpriserne uventet i november, hvilket dog kun formåede at svække USD midlertidigt. Mandag morgen er stemningen på aktiemarkederne let negativ efter svagt Kina-PMI og svagt og JPY styrkes på trods af en umiddelbart positiv aflæsning i Tankan-indekset i Japan. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 647,5-0,25 USD/JPY 102,8-1,050 USA 2,89 0,00 CRB 279,7 1,64 Stoxx600 309,8-0,16 EUR/USD 1,376 0,001 Euroområdet 1,85 0,01 Brent oil (1M fut) 109,3 0,59 FTSE 6440,0-0,08 USD/DKK 5,424-0,005 Danmark 1,92 0,01 Gold (spot) 1234,2 0,52 S&P500 1775,3-0,01 CHF/DKK 6,105 0,008 Nasdaq 4001,0 0,06 GBP/DKK 8,845-0,024 Hang Seng 23191,6-0,23 SEK/DKK 0,824 0,003 Nikkei 15152,9-1,62 NOK/DKK 0,876 0,001 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,500 2,89 2,80 3,00 3,30 EUR/USD 1,376 1,36 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,85 1,80 1,80 2,00 USD/JPY 102,8 102,5 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,91 2,70 2,80 3,00 USD/DKK 5,424 5,49 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 1,92 1,90 1,95 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,461 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 1,00 0,75 0,75 1,00 2,35 2,30 2,40 2,60 SEK/DKK 0,8236 0,848 0,887 0,898 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,25 1,25 2,90 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,8764 0,899 0,920 0,920 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 16. december 2013 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 19-12-13 SAS Årsregnskab 20-12-13 Flügger Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 16-12-13 00:50 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Index 4Q 15 -- 12 16 16-12-13 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Dec -- -- -2.4%/4.0% -1.9%/5.4% 16-12-13 02:45 Kina HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Dec 50.9 -- 50.8 50.5 16-12-13 10:00 EMU PMI Manufacturing Dec A 51.8 51 51.6 16-12-13 10:00 EMU PMI Services Dec A 51.4 51.5 51.2 16-12-13 10:00 EMU PMI Composite Dec A 51.9 51.7 51.7 16-12-13 14:30 USA Empire Manufacturing Dec 5.00 -- -2.21 16-12-13 14:58 USA Markit US PMI Preliminary Dec -- -- 54.3 16-12-13 15:00 EMU ECB President Draghi Speaks to EP 16-12-13 15:15 USA Industrial Production MoM Nov 0.6% 0.4% -0.1% 17-12-13 09:30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 0.75% 0.75% 1.00% 17-12-13 10:30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.2%/2.2% -- 0.1%/2.2% 17-12-13 10:30 UK CPI Core YoY Nov 1.8% -- 1.7% 17-12-13 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Current Situation Dec 30.0 30 28.7 17-12-13 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Dec 55.0 54.5 54.6 17-12-13 11:00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov F -0.1%/0.9% -- -0.1%/0.9% 17-12-13 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Nov F 1.0% -- 1.0% 17-12-13 14:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.1%/1.3% -- -0.1%/1.0% 17-12-13 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.1%/1.7% -- 0.1%/1.7% 17-12-13 14:30 USA Current Account Balance 3Q -$100.9B -- -$98.9B 17-12-13 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Dec 55 54 54 17-12-13 19:30 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet 18-12-13 00:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Nov - 1198.1B -- - 1072.5B 18-12-13 02:30 Kina China November Property Prices 18-12-13 03:00 Kina CB Leading Economic Index 18-12-13 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Dec -- 103.4 104.1 18-12-13 09:00 EMU European Union Finance Ministers Meet 18-12-13 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Dec 109.5 109 109.3 18-12-13 10:30 UK Bank of England Minutes 18-12-13 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Oct 7.6% -- 7.6% 18-12-13 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Dec 8,0 -- 1,0 18-12-13 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 13. dec -- -- 1.0% 18-12-13 14:30 USA Housing Starts Nov 960K -- -- 18-12-13 14:30 USA Building Permits Nov 990K -- 1034K 18-12-13 20:00 USA FOMC Rate Decision 18. dec 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 19-12-13 10:30 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM/YoY) Nov 0.2%/2.1% -- -0.7%/1.8% 19-12-13 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 14. dec 355K -- 368K 19-12-13 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15. dec -- -- -30.9 19-12-13 16:00 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Dec 10.0 -- 6.5 19-12-13 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Nov 5.05M -- 5.12M 19-12-13 16:00 USA Leading Index Nov 0.7% -- 0.2% 19-12-13 EMU EU two-days Summit in Brussels 20-12-13 Japan Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement 20-12-13 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Dec -11,0 -- -12,0 20-12-13 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Jan 7.4 -- 7.4 20-12-13 08:45 Frankrig Business Confidence Dec -- -- 95,0 20-12-13 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Nov -- 0.5%/ -0.6%/-1.9% 20-12-13 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Dec -- 0.0 4.0 20-12-13 09:00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q F -- 0.4%/0.5% 0.4%/0.5% 20-12-13 09:30 EMU EU Leaders Conclude Summit in Brussels 20-12-13 10:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions Nov 14.9B -- 8.1B 20-12-13 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q T 3.6% -- 3.6% 20-12-13 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Dec A -15.0 -- -15.4 Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, +45 33 41 82 03, jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, +45 33 41 86 19, ragu02@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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