Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Danmark 24. februar 2012 Vigtigste begivenheder USA: Salg af nye boliger stadig dødt Markederne: Stille dag indeholdende ny medvind til EUR bla. oven på tyske Ifo-tal. Aktiemarkeder stort set uændrede (Europa lidt ned - USA lidt op), mens obligationsrenterne falder en anelse. USA: Antallet af nye ledige en smule lavere end forventet. FHFA s boligprisindeks stiger i december mere end ventet til det højeste niveau i et år. Kina: Conference Boards China s ledende økonomiske indeks stiger i et hurtigere tempo i januar. Euroområdet: EU nedjusterer BNP-væksten for euroområdet til -0,3% i 2012 fra tidligere 0,5%. Tyskland: Ifo-indekset steg i februar mere end forventet, ligesom i de foregående tre måneder. Grækenland: Parlamentet vedtager som ventet gældsombytningsplan, herunder CAC s (collective action clauses). Dagen i dag byder på salg af nye boliger og endelig opgørelse af Michigan-forbrugertillid. Derudover har vi en længere talerrække fra Federal Reserve. I euroområdet kan der være en smule opmærksomhed på BNP-revideringer i UK og Tyskland samt italiensk auktion. Antal boliger (1000, annualiseret) 750 650 550 450 350 250 07 08 09 10 11 12 525 475 425 375 325 275 225 175 125 Salg af nye boliger Realkreditansøgninger ifm. huskøb [lag 2] Source: Reuters EcoWin indeks Dagens vigtigste begivenheder Dagen i dag er ligesom i går ikke specielt rig på større økonomiske begivenheder. Der kan i første omgang være lidt opmærksomhed på revideringer af 4. kvartals BNP for Tyskland og Storbritannien. Der ventes som udgangspunkt ikke revideringer, men der bliver offentliggjort flere detaljer om underkomponenterne, hvilket kan give en ide om det fremtidige vækstpotentiale. Derudover skal Italien i løbet af formiddagen holde auktioner over tre forskellige serier statsobligationer. USA byder ind med anden del af ugens boligomsætningsrapport i form af salget af nye boliger. Der ventes en lille stigning, som dog fortsat er af en størrelse der ikke ændre på udseendet af et salg der har svært ved at komme væk fra bunden. Den seneste negative udvikling i realkreditansøgninger i forbindelse med huskøb har da også indikeret dette (jf. dagens figur), men på den anden side har slaget af eksisterende boliger løftet sig ligesom af byggeriets tillidsindeks NAHB faktisk er steget til det højeste niveau siden maj 2007. Så der er lys forude, men det er sandsynligvis stadig puklen af billige eksisterende boliger (blandt andet på tvangsauktion), der spøger en smule. Derudover skal en række medlemmer af Federal Reserves rentekomité, FOMC, tale sidst på dagen. Højdepunkter siden sidst Gårsdagen indeholdte ikke de store økonomiske begivenheder, men der var dog lidt opmærksomhed på det tyske erhvervsbarometer, Ifo-indekset, for februar. Indekset formede endnu en måned at overraske en smule på opsiden, da det steg til 109,6, hvilket er det højeste niveau siden juli 2011. Det var endnu en gang især forventningsindekset der trak op. Stigningen var bredt fordelt på brancher, og mest interessant var det især byggeriet der steg, således at forretningsklimaet med en værdi på 3,3 blev positivt for første gang i indekset knap 20-årige historie. Dermed er der stadig tegn på at landets periode med negativ vækst vil blive rimelig kortfattet. Det mildner umiddelbart recessionsudsigterne for euroområdet, men ikke desto mindre måtte EUkommissionen nedjusterer sit vækstskøn for euroområdet i år til -0,3% fra tidligere +0,5%. Godt nok blev både Tyskland og Frankrig nedjusteret en smule til lidt lavere men positiv vækst på henholdsvis 0,6% og 0,4%, men der var tale om markante nedjusteringer af især de gældsplagede Sydeuropæiske lande, hvor Italien og Spanien begge blev nedrevideret markant til vækst på henholdsvis -1,3% og -1,0% fra forrige henholdsvis 0,1% og 0,7%. Det stille jo straks spørgsmålet om de planlagte budgetforbedringer i % af BNP er tilstrækkelige, eller om vi snart skal ud og lede efter nye besparelser i disse lande? Mon ikke vi skal det. Ydermere blev både Holland og Belgien nedjusteret til negative vækstrater i år på henholdsvis -0,9% og -0,1%. Derudover blev den realøkonomiske situation ikke bedre af at EU-kommissionen måtte sande at inflationen holder sig stædigt høj, og venter nu 2,1% i år fra tidligere 1,7%. Fra USA modtog vi antallet af nytilmeldte ledige på overførselsindkomst, som viste sig uændret på 351.000 personer i sidste uge efter at forrige uge blev revideret op til et tilsvarende antal. Det var en anelse lavere end niveauet der var ventet (355.000). Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, +45 4679 1203, jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum, +45 4679 1619, ragu02@handelsbanken.dk, Thomas Haugaard, +45 4679 1229, thje01@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale.
Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 (+0,38% / indeks 452,97) og OMXC (+0,17% / indeks 374,85) endte begge i positivt territorium. Indeksene blev trukket i land af indekstunge Novo Nordisk (+1,53% / kurs 796,50), der oplevede kursstigning efter, at et ekspertpanel den amerikanske lægemiddelstyrelse, FDA, anbefalede medicinalselskabet Vivus vægttabsmiddel, Qnexa. Dette giver anledning til forventning om øget sandsynlighed for godkendelse af Novo Nordisks Victoza. Bedst i C20 gik det dog for GN Store Nord (+2,30% / kurs 60,15) på trods af en dårligere end ventet bundlinje i årsregnskabet. Vestas (-1,30% / kurs 57,10) oplevede kursfald på trods af, at Obama foreslår en permanent støtte til vedvarende energi. Til gengæld fremlagde Gamsea et skuffende regnskab, som var med til at sende aktiekursen ned. I bunden af eliteindekset endte dog FLSmidth (-2,36% / kurs 442,70), NKT (-2,68% / kurs 232,00) og Sydbank (-4,16% / kurs 105,90), hvor der blev hentet gevinster hjem. Renter Torsdag var en stille dag på obligationsmarkedet. De tyske (og danske) renter tog dog en tur op i løbet af formiddagen oven på offentliggørelsen af en ny bedre-end-ventet Ifo-rapport fra Tyskland, som sænkede sandsynligheden for, at Tyskland er i recession her i begyndelsen af året. Senere på dagen faldt renterne dog tilbage, hvilket sandsynligvis kunne relateres til EU-kommissionens opdaterede vækstforventninger, der nu viser negativ vækst i eruoområdet for 2012 som helhed. Herunder gav især nedjusteringerne af Sydeuropa anledning til panderynker. Senere på dagen kunne selv ikke en anelse bedre tal for ledigheden i USA hindre tilbagefaldet i renterne. Det blev desuden hjulpet på vej af USA s sidste af tre auktioner over samlet 99 mia. USD auktion. Auktionen over 29 mia. USD i 7-årige obligationer forløb således ganske vellykket med en efterspørgsel over gennemsnittet og faldende renter. Dagens rentebevægelse endte således en anelse nedad. EUR-styrkelse var temaet på valutamarkederne torsdag. Det blev hjulpet på vej af Ifo-tal for Tyskland der igen steg mere end ventet, og dermed signalerede at landet gør hvad det kan for at mildne det økonomiske tilbageslag i euroområdet. Den positive EUR-stemning blev i den forbindelse ikke umiddelbart ødelagt af at EU-Kommissionen sænkede vækstskønnet for euroområdet til negativt territorium i 2012. Senere på torsdagen fik EUR derudover støtte fra tiltagende spekulationer om weekendens G20-møde vil udmønte sig i mere udprægede støtteerklæringer til euroområdet fra lande såsom Kina og Japan. EUR blev således løftet pænt til det højeste niveau mod USD i år på over 1,335. Derudover blev risk on -tendensen generelt hjulpet på vej, da JP Morgans volatilitetsindeks for G7-valutaerne faldt til det laveste niveau siden august 2008 altså før finanskrisen for alvor startede. Det betød også at GBP blev svækket mod EUR (men styrkes mod USD) og JPY igen blev sendt ned over for de andre hovedvalutaer. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Aktier Aktu elt %-Ændring Aktuelt Æ ndring OMXC20 453.0 0.38 USD/JPY 80.4 0. 15 Stoxx600 264.1-0.19 EUR/USD 1.336 0.011 FTSE 5937.9 0.36 EUR/DKK 7.436-0.001 Dow Jones 12984.7 0.36 USD/DKK 5.564-0.045 Nasdaq 2957.0 0.81 SEK/DKK 0.840-0.002 Brasil. 65819.6-0.41 NOK/DKK 0.990-0.002 Hang Seng 21389.2 0.04 CHF/DKK 6. 167-0.003 Nikkei 9647.4 0.54 GBP/DKK 8.75-0.04 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktu elt Æ ndring Aktuelt Æ ndring USA 2.00-0.03 CRB 323.4 1.64 EUR 1.88-0.05 Brent oil (1Mf) 123.9 0.96 DKK 1.89-0.04 Gold (spot) 1776.4 0.16 Pengemarkedsr enter EURIBOR3M 1.01 CHF3M 0.09 CIBOR3M 1.01 EURIBOR6M 1.31 CHF6M 0.14 CIBOR6M 1.26 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Vi forventer, at ECB vil holde renten i ro på 1,00%, men vil dog ikke udelukke yderligere rentenedsættelser, skulle den økonomiske situation tilsige det. Nationalbanken forventes at følge ECB på helt kort sigt, dog med mulighed for yderligere negativ spændudvidelse. Spændet ventes dog igen positvt på 12-måneders sigt. Det er dog usikkert og afhænger i høj grad af udviklingen i DKK. Vi forventer, at Federal Reserve holder pengepolitikken uændret lempelig frem til i hvert fald slutningen af 2014, med en vis sandsynlighed for at en ny omgang kvantitative lempelser (QE3) kan blive aktuel. EUR er under pres fra en lempeligere pengepolitik samt den fortsatte usikkerhed i forbindelse med gældskrisen i euroområdet. Så mens der stadig er en trussel for USD fra den uafklarede situation og den politiske uenighed i forbindelse med udformningen af finanspolitikken, så venter vi generelt en stærkere USD over for EUR på 12 måneders sigt. NOK og SEK ses at kunne blive styrket en smule yderligere på kort sigt, men ventes svækket over de kommende 12 måneder som følge af en fortsat mere lempelig retning i pengepolitikken. Officielle renter 10-årig statsoblig ationer Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 2.00 2.20 2.50 2.75 EUR/USD 1.337 1.26 1. 25 1.15 Euroland 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.88 2.00 2.10 2.25 USD/JPY 80.4 83.0 80.0 86.0 Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.98 1.10 1.15 1.20 USD/DKK 5.564 5.91 5. 96 6.48 Danmark 0.70 0.70 0.80 1.05 1.89 2.00 2.20 2.40 EUR/DKK 7.436 7.45 7. 45 7.46 Sverige 1.75 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.93 1.90 2.00 2.00 SEK/DKK 0.8398 0.856 0.832 0.838 Norge 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 2.36 2.30 2.40 2.55 NOK/DKK 0.9903 1.000 0.968 0.968 24. februar 2012 2
Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 20/02/12 Carlsberg As-B Y 20/02/12 United Plantations Berhad Y 21/02/12 Dsv A/S Y 21/02/12 Flsmidt h & Co A/S Y 21/02/12 Jyske Bank-Reg Y 21/02/12 Pandora A/S Y 22/02/12 Alk-Abello A/S Y 22/02/12 Sydbank A/S Y 22/02/12 Thrane & Thrane A/S Q3 22/02/12 Vestjysk Bank A/S Y 22/02/12 Aarhus Lokalbank A/S Y 23/02/12 Brdr A & O Johansen As-Pfd Y 23/02/12 East Asiatic Co Ltd Y 23/02/12 Gn Store Nord A/S Y 23/02/12 Exiqon A/S Y 24/02/12 P/F Atlantic Petroleum Y Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikato r Periode Survey SH B Forrige F aktisk 20/02/12 01:01 UK Rightmove Hous e Prices (MoM/YoY) FEB - - - - -0.8% /0.4% 4.1%/1.4% 20/02/12 08:45 Frankrig Production Outlook Indicator FEB -36 - - -36-27 20/02/12 08:45 Frankrig Business Confidence Indicator FEB 92 - - 91 92 20/02/12 17:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet 21/02/12 09:00 EMU EU Finance Ministers Meet 21/02/12 09:00 Danm ark Consumer Confidence Indicator FEB - - -6.5-7.0-4.8 21/02/12 10:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions JAN -6.3B - - 14.0B(r) -7.8B 21/02/12 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index JAN 0.22 - - 0.54(r) 0.2 21/02/12 16:00 EMU Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence FEB A -20.3 - - -20.7-20.2 22/02/12 03:30 Kina HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI FEB - - - - 48.8 49.7 22/02/12 07:30 Frankrig Consumer Price Index (MoM/YoY) JAN -0.2%/2.7% - - 0.4%/2.5% -0.4%/2.3% 22/02/12 09:30 Sverige Unemployment Rate JAN 7.9% 8.1% 7.1% 8.0% 22/02/12 10:00 EMU PMI Composite FEB A 50.5 - - 50.4 49.7 22/02/12 10:00 Norge Unemployment rate(aku) DEC 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 22/02/12 10:00 EMU PMI Manufacturing FEB A 49.4 - - 48.8 49.0 22/02/12 10:00 EMU PMI Services FEB A 50.6 - - 50.4 49.4 22/02/12 10:30 UK Bank of England Minutes 22/02/12 11:00 EMU Industrial New Orders (MoM/YoY) DEC 0.5%/-2.7% - - -1.3%/-2.7% 1.9%/-1.7% 22/02/12 11:30 Tyskland Germany to Sell EU5 Bln 2-Year Notes 22/02/12 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 17. Feb - - - - -1.0% -4.5% 22/02/12 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Level. sa FEB -8.5 - - -9.5-7.7 22/02/12 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales JAN 4.65M 4.70M 4.61M 4.57M 23/02/12 10:00 Tyskland IFO - Business Climate FEB 108.8 - - 108.3 109.6 23/02/12 11:15 EMU EU Issues Interim Economic Forecasts 23/02/12 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 18. Feb 355K - - 351K(r) 351K 23/02/12 16:00 USA House Price Index MoM 0.1% - - 1.0% 0.7% 23/02/12 EMU ECB Meeting, Frankfurt 24/02/12 03:00 Kina Conference Board Leading Economic Index 24/02/12 08:00 Tyskland GDP (QOQ/YoY) 4Q P -0.2%/2.0% - - -0.2%/2.0% 24/02/12 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Indicator FEB 82 - - 81 24/02/12 10:30 UK GDP (QOQ/YoY) 4Q P -0.2%/0.8% - - -0.2%/0.8% 24/02/12 11:00 Italien Italy to Sell Bonds 24/02/12 15:55 USA U. of Michigan Confidence FEB F 73.0 - - 72.5 24/02/12 16:00 USA New Home Sales JAN 315K 320K 307K 24/02/12 19:30 USA Fed's Williams, Bullard, Plosser, Dudley 24. februar 2012 3
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The Bank has also adopted guidelines to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify, eliminate, avoid, deal with, or make public actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( ethical walls ) in communication between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. 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Contact information Capital Markets Michael Green Head +46 8 701 43 56 Per Elcar Global co-head of Equities +46 8 701 19 49 Björn Linden Global co-head of Equities +44 7909528735 Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research and +46 8 701 10 97 Chief Economist, SHB Magnus Fageräng Head of Structured Products +46 8 701 30 72 Peter Karlsson Head of Equity & Credit Research +46 8 701 21 51 Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets +46 8 701 25 10 Kjell Arvidsson Head of Loans +46 8 701 20 04 Per Jäderberg Head of Structured Finance +46 8 701 33 51 Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance +46 8 701 52 84 Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds +46 8 701 24 16 Economic Research Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research +46 8 701 10 97 Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis +46 8 701 33 97 Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging +46 8 701 20 53 Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom +46 8 701 12 84 Anders Brunstedt Swedish Economy +46 8 701 54 32 Eva Dorenius Web Editor +46 8 701 50 54 Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange & Commodities Carl Cederschiöld Head of Fixed Income, Currencies +46 8 701 10 38 and Commodities Warwick Salvage Head of Fixed Income +46 8 463 45 41 Håkan Larsson Head of Currencies +46 8 463 45 19 Magnus Strömer Head of Commodities +46 8 463 45 63 Patrik Castman-Langlet Head of Derivative Sales +46 8 463 46 24 Lars Henriksson Head of F/X Sales +46 8 463 45 18 Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head +46 8 463 45 35 Martin Enlund Senior Strategist FI/FX +46 8 463 46 33 Johan Sahlström Senior Credit Strategist +46 8 463 45 37 Therese Öhlin Senior Credit Strategist +46 8 463 48 59 Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist +46 8 461 23 43 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Economic Research +45 467 91203 Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Danish economy +45 467 91619 Thomas Haugaard Latin America, Emerging Markets +45 467 91229 Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Economic Research +358 10 444 2404 Tuulia Asplund Finnish economy +358 10 444 2403 Olli Hyytiäinen Finnish economy +358 10 444 2403 Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Economic Research +47 22 39 71 81 Ida Wolden Bache Norwegian economy +47 22 39 73 40 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Kari Due-Andresen Norwegian economy +47 22 39 70 07 Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen +45 46 79 12 69 Gothenburg Karl-Johan Svensson +46 31 743 31 09 Gävle Andreas Edvardson +46 26 172 144 Helsinki Mika Rämänen +358 10 444 62 20 Linköping Fredrik Lundgren +46 13 28 91 10 London Ray Spiers +44 207 578 86 12 Luleå Ove Larsson +46 90 154 719 Luxembourg Christiane Junio +352 274 868 244 Malmö Jonas Darte +46 40 24 54 04 Oslo Petter Fjellheim +47 22 82 30 29 Stockholm Malin Nilén +46 8 701 27 70 Umeå Kenneth Båtsman +46 90 154 581 Toll-free numbers From Sweden to 020-58 64 46 From Norway to 800 40 333 From Denmark to 8001 72 02 From Finland to 0800 91 11 00 Within the US 1-800 396-2758 Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE-106 70 Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel. +45 46 79 12 00 Tel. +46 8 701 10 00 Fax. +45 46 79 15 52 Fax. +46 8 701 12 40 Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI-00100 Helsinki Tel. +358 10 444 11 Fax. +358 10 444 2578 Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel. +47 22 94 0700 Fax. +47 2233 6915 London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel. +44 207 578 8668 Fax. +44 207 578 8090 New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY 10022-7218 Tel. +1 212 326 5153 Fax. +1 212 326 2730 FINRA, SIPC