13. marts 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Efter en lidt begivenhedsfattig dag på nøgletalsfronten i går er der mere kød på kalenderen i dag. Fokus vil formentlig primært være rettet mod detailsalget i USA i februar, ikke mindst efter at januar bød på et skuffende fald i det underliggende salg (det vil sige renset for biler, benzin og byggematerialer). Det store spørgsmål som vi gerne vil have besvaret er, om tilbagegangen i årets første måned primært kan tilskrives vejreffekter, hvor det dårlige vejr holdt kunderne ude af butikkerne. Vejret var dog også usædvanligt koldt i februar, men dog i mindre grad, og markederne venter på den baggrund en stigning i kernesalget, der nogenlunde matcher det fald vi så i januar. Der var dog også en stribe store snestorme i februar som ramte USA relativt bredt, og derfor ser vi en vis risiko for at udviklingen kan blive mere negativ end den fremgang på 0,2% i det underliggende salg som er forventningen i markedet og dermed også at vi nok skal vente lidt længere før end vi kan konkludere om vejret har været den primære faktor bag den seneste lidt skuffende udvikling. Indtil videre tror vi dog det har været tilfældet da udviklingen i både forbrugerpriserne samt i forbrugertilliden begge indikerer, at detailsalget grundlæggende burde have udviklet sig stærkere i årets første måneder. Herudover får vi også tal for antallet af nye ledige, som efter lidt store udsving hen over årsskiftet har stabiliseret sig mellem 325.000 og 350.000 personer et niveau der historisk er foreneligt med en fornuftig fremgang i beskæftigelsen. Endelig vil vi også holde lidt øje med høringen i senatet vedrørende nomineringen af tre nye Fed-medlemmer, Fischer, Brainard og Powell, som kan blive dem der skal være med til at styre den fremtidige pengepolitik. US: Januarfald i detailsalget virker overgjort Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Bekymringer om Ukraine og vækstudsigterne i Kina trak risikovilligheden ned i Europa på en dag uden de store økonomiske nøgletal og aktiemarkederne endte med pæne minusser. I USA endte markederne dog mere fladt. Der var initialt en positiv stemning i Asien i nat men svage kinesiske nøgletal her til morgen har vendt udviklingen i en mere negativ retning og kan også præge åbningen i Europa i negativ retning. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland faldt. EUR er styrket til det stærkeste niveau over for USD siden oktober 2011. Kina: Tendensen i nøgletallene fortsætter i det svage spor, hvor både industriproduktionen, detailsalget og investeringsaktiviteten steg mindre end ventet i januar/februar. Alt i alt nok ikke tal, der vil ændre på de aktuelle bekymringer om vækstudsigterne. Premiereminister Li udtalte at defaults i visse tilfælde kan vise sig uundgåelige, men at myndighederne har stor fokus på de finansielle risici. USA: Efter en stigning i forrige uge havde antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån til huskøb igen en svag pil nedad. Der er i denne timelige opgørelse stadig ikke de store tegn på et rebound i aktiviteten på boligmarkedet, som vi ellers gerne snart skulle se materialisere sig for at fastholde, at de aktuelle svagheder primært er et vejrfænomen og ikke et udtryk for en mere underliggende afmatningstendens. For indeværende peger de store fald i aktiviteten på boligmarkedet i hvert fald på en vis risiko for, at vi kan begynde at se en opbremsning i prisstigningstakten på boligmarkedet. EMU: Industriproduktionen faldt med 0,2% m/m i januar. Tal fra Tyskland, Italien og Spanien havde ellers peget på et mere positivt afsæt ind i 2014, men både Frankrig og især Holland og Finland bidrog til den skuffende udvikling. Den negative udvikling i Frankrig er endnu en påmindelse om den stigende divergens i forhold til Tyskland. Produktionsfaldet i december blev dog nedrevideret fra -0,7% til -0,4%, hvilket tager lidt af brodden af svaghederne. Det skal også understreges at en stor del af faldet kan tilskrives et fald i energiproduktionen, muligvis som følge af mildt vejr, og at der på den baggrund er basis for et rebound, samt at tillidsindikatorerne også fortsat peger på en stærkere udvikling i de kommende måneder. De relative svagheder i produktionen af forbrugsgoder er dog en lille kilde til bekymring, da det ikke vidner om at forbruget er ved at komme op i tempo. Overordnet er tallet en påmindelse om, at det økonomiske opsving stadig er skrøbeligt, og ikke stærkt nok endnu til at kunne eliminere risikoen for deflation eller takle regionens fortsatte gældsudfordringer. Den tyske finansminister udtalte, at han ikke så risiko for deflation i euroområdet, samt at de nuværende renteniveauer er for lave set ud fra et tysk perspektiv. UK: Huspriserne steg i et langsommere tempo i februar ifølge RICS husprisbalance, der faldt fra 52% til 45%. En afdæmpning i antallet af nye købere står bag udviklingen, mens et fortsat lavt antal boliger til salg dog stadig sikrer vækst i huspriserne dårligt vejr kan dog formentlig også forklare en del af den lidt svagere tendens. US: Stadig afdæmpet aktivitet på boligmarkedet For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 13. marts 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-1,65% / indeks 744,96) endte i negativt territorium på en dag, hvor stemningen på markedet fortsat blev dikteret af situationen i Ukraine. Den negative stemning skyldes mere specifikt at investorerne endnu engang var bekymrede over situationen i Ukraine efter Tysklands Merkel havde bedt Præsident Putin om at skifte kurs i forhold til Krim-halvøen inden næste uge, da tyske sanktioner mod Rusland ellers vil træde i kraft. Samtidigt var investorerne nervøse for den seneste tids svage nøgletal fra Kina, som indikerer at væksten er på vej ned i gear. Den nervøse stemning betød at samtlige aktier i det ledende danske C20-indeks endte dagen i negativt terræn. I bunden af indekset endte A.P. Møller - Mærsk (-3,23% / kurs 62.850,00) efter af at dødsboet efter Mærsk McKinney Møller valgte at sælge en stor portion aktier til institutionelle investorer, hvor der var der tale om en rabat på 7% for A-aktierne og 4,5% for B-aktierne i forhold til den foregående dags lukkekurs. I den anden ende af indekset endte de defensive selskaber Topdanmark (-0,52% / kurs 153,20) og TDC (-0,65% / kurs 48,72), som i mindre grad blev ramt af gårsdagens udprægede nervøsitet blandt investorerne. Renter Der var en udpræget risk-off stemning på de finansielle markeder i Europa i går, hvor den fortsat usikre situation i Ukraine samt bekymringer om vækstudsigterne i Kina vejede tungt på risikovilligheden. Det sendte investorerne ind i de mere sikre obligationsmarkeder, med rentefald til følge i både Danmark og Tyskland, mens vi så stigninger i de fleste af periferilandenes renter. Et overraskende fald i industriproduktionen i euroområdet medvirkede formentlig også til rentefaldet, ligesom en stribe ECB-medlemmer var på banen med relativt dueagtige beskeder. Modsat udtalte den tyske finansminister, at det aktuelle renteniveau er for lavt i et tysk perspektiv, og at der ikke er risiko for deflation i euroområdet. Sidstnævnte så ud til at have størst effekt på EUR, der blev styrket yderligere, og som dermed i sig selv øger presset for mere handling fra ECB s side. Generelt var der ikke de store nøgletal til at sætte retningspilen, om end antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån faldt i USA. Der har været tendens til en lidt mindre grad af risikoaversion i USA og Asien efter europæisk lukketid, men skuffende tal for industriproduktionen og detailsalget i Kina som vi fik her til morgen, kan muligvis sætte sit præg på obligationsmarkederne her fra morgenstunden. Valuta EUR er blevet styrket over for USD til det stærkeste niveau over for USD siden oktober 2011, til trods for et lidt skuffende fald i industriproduktionen i euroområdet i januar samt relativt dueagtige udtalelser fra en stribe ECBmedlemmer. Markederne så dog ud til at tage mere retning fra udtalelser fra den tyske finansminister om, at han ikke så risiko for deflation i euroområdet, samt at det aktuelle renteniveau er for lavt set ud fra et tysk perspektiv. Endvidere ser udtalelser fra den nominerede kandidat til at overtage Yellens job som Feds vice-chef om at der er behov for en fortsat ekstremt lempelig pengepolitik u dtil at have trukket yderligere op i EUR i løbet af i nat. Overordnet var gårsdagen dog lidt blottet for større nøgletal, om end vi så et lille fald i antallet af ansøgninger om realkreditlån til huskøb i USA. Stemningen var primært sat af en lav risikovillighed som følge af den fortsat uafklarede situation i Ukraine samt af bekymringer om vækstudsigterne i Kina, hvilket morgenens skuffende tal for væksten i industriproduktionen og detailsalget ikke har givet anledning til at ændre ved. Det har også givet anledning til at JPY er blev styrket over for USD. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 745.0-1.65 USD/JPY 102.6-0.280 USA 2.73-0.03 CRB 303.0 1.64 Stoxx600 328.0-1.07 EUR/USD 1.394 0.008 Euroområdet 1.60-0.04 Brent oil (1M fut) 108.3 0.01 FTSE 6620.9-0.97 USD/DKK 5.356-0.030 Danmark 1.62-0.04 Gold (spot) 1369.3 0.57 S&P500 1868.2 0.03 CHF/DKK 6.137 0.001 Nasdaq 4323.3 0.37 GBP/DKK 8.924-0.033 Hang Seng 21837.6-0.29 SEK/DKK 0.844 0.000 Nikkei 14826.8-0.02 NOK/DKK 0.902-0.001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.500 2.73 2.65 3.20 3.50 EUR/USD 1.394 1.38 1.25 1.10 Euroland 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.60 1.70 1.90 2.00 USD/JPY 102.6 102.0 103.0 105.0 UK 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 2.75 2.85 3.00 3.25 USD/DKK 5.356 5.41 5.96 6.77 Danmark 0.20 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.62 1.80 2.00 2.15 EUR/DKK 7.463 7.46 7.45 7.45 Sverige 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 2.12 2.25 2.50 2.75 SEK/DKK 0.8445 0.811 0.847 0.887 Norge 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.25 2.95 2.90 2.90 3.00 NOK/DKK 0.9021 0.899 0.920 0.920 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 13. marts 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 10-03-14 BoConcept Holding 3. kvartal 11-03-14 D/S Norden Årsregnskab 11-03-14 Royal Unibrew Årsregnskab 12-03-14 G4S Årsregnskab 14-03-14 H+H International Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 09-03-14 02:30 Kina PPI YoY Feb -1.9% -- -1.6% -2.0% 09-03-14 02:30 Kina CPI YoY Feb 2.1% -- 2.5% 2.0% 10-03-14 00:50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 4Q F 0.2% -- 0.3% 0.2% 10-03-14 06:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Feb 50.5 -- 49.0 40.0 10-03-14 08:30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Feb 100 -- 99 98.0 10-03-14 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jan 0.3%/1.3% -- -0.3%/0.5% -0.2%/-0.1% 10-03-14 09:00 Danmark CPI MoM/YoY Feb 1.1%/0.9% 1.1%/0.9% -0.2%/1.0% 0.7%/0.5% 10-03-14 10:00 Norge CPI MoM/YoY Feb 0.5%/2.1% 0.4%/2.0% 0.0%/2.3% 0.5%/2.1% 10-03-14 10:00 Italien Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jan 0.5%/-0.3% -0.9%/-0.7% 1.0%/1.4% 10-03-14 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Mar 14.0 9.0 13.3 13.9 10-03-14 11:15 USA Fed's Plosser, Bank of France's Noyer Speak on Panel in Paris 10-03-14 14:00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels 10-03-14 Kina New Yuan Loans Feb 730.0B -- 1320.0B 644.5B 10-03-14 Kina Aggregate Financing RMB Feb 1312.9B -- 2584.5B (r) 938.7B 11-03-14 Japan BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target 11. mar 270T -- 270T 270T 11-03-14 08:00 Sverige PES Unemployment Rate Feb -- -- 4.6% 4.5% 11-03-14 09:00 Danmark Current Account Balance Jan 10.0B 9B 9.4B 9.0B 11-03-14 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jan 8.0B 6B 5.5B 7.0B 11-03-14 09:00 EMU EU Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels 11-03-14 09:30 Sverige CPI MoM/YoY Feb 0.5%/-0.2% 0.5%/-0.2% -1.2%/-0.2% 0.4%/-0.2% 11-03-14 10:30 UK Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jan 0.2%/2.9% -- 0.4%/1.8% 0.1%/2.9% 11-03-14 12:30 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb -- 93 94.1 91 11-03-14 15:00 USA JOLTs Job Openings Jan -- -- 3.990.0 3974 11-03-14 15:00 USA Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan 0.5% -- 0.3% 0,6% 12-03-14 09:00 EMU EU's Barroso Speaks to EU Parliament in Strasbourg 12-03-14 11:00 EMU Industrial Production MoM/YoY Jan 0.5%/1.9% 0.8%/2.2% -0.4%/1.2%(r) -0.2%/2.1% 12-03-14 12:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 07. mar -- -- 9.4% -2.1% 12-03-14 19:00 USA Treasury Sec Lew testifies before House Budget Committee 13-03-14 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Feb 52% -- 52%(r) 45% 13-03-14 06:30 Kina Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD YoY Feb 19.4% -- 19.6% 17.9% 13-03-14 06:30 Kina Retail Sales YTD YoY Feb 13.5% -- 13.1% 11.8% 13-03-14 06:30 Kina Industrial Production YTD YoY Feb 9.5% 9.5% 9.7% 8.6% 13-03-14 08:45 Frankrig CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY Feb 0.6%/1.0% -- -0.6%/0.8% 13-03-14 09:30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA Feb 8.0% 8.1% 8.2% 13-03-14 10:00 EMU ECB Publishes Monthly Report 13-03-14 13:30 USA Retail Sales Advance MoM Feb 0.2% -- -0.4% 13-03-14 13:30 USA Retail Sales Control Group MoM Feb 0.2% -- -0.3% 13-03-14 13:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 08. mar 330K -- 323K 13-03-14 13:30 USA Continuing Claims 28. feb -- -- 2907K 13-03-14 13:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.5%/-1.9% -- 0.1%/-1.5% 13-03-14 15:00 USA Senate Banking Nomination Hearing for Fischer, Brainard,Powell 13-03-14 19:00 USA Monthly Budget Statement Feb -$195.0B -- -$203.5B 14-03-14 05:30 Japan Industrial Production YoY Jan F -- -- 10.6% 14-03-14 08:00 Tyskland CPI EU Harmonized MoM/YoY Feb F 0.5%/1.0% -- 0.5%/1.0% 12-03-14 10:30 UK Trade Balance Jan - 2200 -- - 1026 14-03-14 13:30 USA PPI Final Demand MoM/YoY Feb 0.2%/1.2% -- 0.2%/1.2% 14-03-14 14:55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Mar P 82.0 81.0 81.6 Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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Contact information Capital Markets Michael Green Head +46 8 701 43 56 Per Elcar Head of Securities, Fixed Income, +46 8 701 19 49 FX and Commodities Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research and +46 8 701 10 97 Chief Economist, SHB Peter Karlsson Head of Equity & Credit Research +46 8 701 21 51 Björn Linden Head of Securities, Fixed Income, FX and Commodities International +44 7909528735 Fixed Income Equity Sales, Foreign Exchange & Commodities Carl Cederschiöld Head of Sales +46 8 701 10 38 Eggert Mörling Head of Equity Sales +46 8 463 49 11 Henrik Franzén Head of Fixed Income Sales +46 8 463 46 72 Magnus Strömer Head of FX and Commodities Sales +46 8 463 45 63 Peter Carlberg Head of Derivative Sales +46 8 701 14 53 Lennart Living Head of Structured Saving Products +46 8 463 57 13 Martin Nossman Head of Cross Asset Execution +46 8 463 25 56 Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets +46 8 701 25 10 Per Jäderberg Head of Corporate Loans +46 8 701 33 51 Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance +46 8 701 52 84 Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds +46 8 463 45 79 Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head +46 8 463 45 35 Martin Enlund Senior Strategist FI/FX +46 8 463 46 33 Johan Sahlström Senior Credit Strategist +46 8 463 45 37 Ronny Berg Senior Credit Strategist +47 22 82 30 36 Ola Eriksson Senior Credit Strategist +46 8 463 47 49 Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist +46 8 461 23 43 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Andreas Skogelid Senior Strategist FI +46 8 701 56 80 Pierre Carlsson Strategist FX +46 8 463 46 17 Economic Research Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research +46 8 701 10 97 Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis +46 8 701 33 97 Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging Markets +46 8 701 20 53 Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom +46 8 701 12 84 Anders Brunstedt Sweden +46 8 701 54 32 Eva Dorenius Web Editor +46 8 701 50 54 Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Economic Research +358 10 444 2404 Tuulia Asplund Finnish economy +358 10 444 2403 Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Economic Research +45 467 91203 Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Danish economy +45 467 91619 Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen China and Latin America +45 467 91229 Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Economic Research +47 22 39 71 81 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Kari Due-Andresen Norwegian economy +47 22 39 70 07 Marius Nyborg Hov Norwegian economy +47 22 39 7340 Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen +45 46 79 12 69 Gothenburg Karl-Johan Svensson +46 31 743 31 09 Gävle Johan Magnusson +46 26 172 111 Helsinki Mika Rämänen +358 10 444 62 20 Linköping Fredrik Lundgren +46 13 28 91 10 London Ray Spiers +44 207 578 86 12 Luleå/Umeå Ove Larsson +46 90 154 719 Luxembourg Erik Bertram +352 274 868 245 Malmö Jonas Darte +46 40 24 54 04 Oslo Petter Fjellheim +47 22 82 30 29 Stockholm Malin Nilén +46 8 701 27 70 Toll-free numbers From Sweden to 020-58 64 46 From Norway to 800 40 333 From Denmark to 8001 72 02 From Finland to 0800 91 11 00 Within the US 1-800 396-2758 Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE-106 70 Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel. +45 46 79 12 00 Tel. +46 8 701 10 00 Fax. +45 46 79 15 52 Fax. +46 8 701 28 50 Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI-00100 Helsinki Tel. +358 10 444 11 Fax. +358 10 444 2578 Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel. +47 223 97 000 Fax. +47 2233 6915 London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel. +44 207 578 8668 Fax. +44 207 578 8090 New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY 10022-7218 Tel. +1 212 326 5153 Fax. +1 212 326 2730 FINRA, SIPC