5. december 2013 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fra USA vil fokus især være på udviklingen i antallet af nye ledige, for at se om styrkesignalerne fra arbejdsmarkedet fortsætter. Herudover får vi også de reviderede BNP-tal for 3. kvartal, som muligvis vil vise en svag opjustering fra de først rapporterede 2,8% q/q annualiseret. Gårdagens handelstal pegede dog på, at markedernes forventninger om en opjustering til 3,1% kan være en smule for optimistisk. Herudover får også den ugentlige forbrugertillid fra Bloomberg, fabriksordrer for oktober samt fyringsvarsler fra Challenger. I euroområdet vil al fokus være rettet mod ECB og udmeldingerne fra dagens rentemøde. Efter at ECB lidt overraskende sænkede udlånsrenten til 0,25% på rentemødet i november, venter vi dog ikke de store nyheder på årets sidste rentemøde. Siden forrige rentemøde har flere ECB-medlemmer været ude og retfærdiggøre rentesænkningen, samt forsøgt at forsikre om at centralbanken fortsat har masser af værktøjer tilbage at trække på, herunder yderligere rentesænkninger og i den forbindelse negative indlånsrenter. Derudover har et par stykker nævnt muligheden for at benytte kvantitative lempelser (QE). Ideen om negative renter og QE har imidlertid mødt stor modstand fra de to tyske medlemmer Weidmann og Asmussen. Blandt nøgletallene er Sentiment-indekset ESI forsat i vejret i november og arbejdsløsheden er faldet mens inflationen er steget, hvilket måske tager brodden af disinflationsbekymringen. På den anden side er PMI-indekset nu faldet to måneder i streg, og EUR er blevet styrket i november, og befinder sig aktuelt stærkere end umiddelbart før ECB sænkede renten tidligere på måneden. Kreditvæksten har ydermere vist et nyt rekordfald i oktober, og presset på ECB for at agere yderligere er da også stadig til stede. Vi tror dog heller ikke at ECB allerede i dag vil tage yderligere tiltag. Ikke desto mindre er vi overbeviste om, at Draghi på pressemødet vil understrege at banken fortsat ser negative risici for økonomien og vil fastholde bankens forward guidance om uændret eller lavere renter fremadrettet. Derudover kan Draghi måske vælge at denne gang at fremhæve den uønskede stærke EUR. Således vurderes ECB fortsat at signalere, at den er i lempelseshumør. Vi fastholder da også, at vi meget vel kan se yderligere lempelser i form af LTRO er i begyndelsen af 2014, ligesom at centralbanken kan blive tvunget til en mere konkret forward guidance. På rentemødet kan der desuden komme en smule opmærksomhed på den økonomiske stabs opdaterede økonomiske forventninger. Der er også rentemøde i Bank of England samt i Norges Bank. Vi regner dog ikke med pengepolitiske ændringer fra nogen af bankerne. Dog vil Norges Bank muligvis sænke dens fremadrettede rentesti Fra Danmark får vi tal for udviklingen i tvangsauktioner og konkurser i november. Konkurserne steg kraftigt i forrige måned, og der er ikke udsigt til at vi vil se et større fald i denne måned, og det kan være en påmindelse om, at den økonomiske fremgang som har været indikeret i en stribe tillidsindikatorer, måske ikke er helt så entydig som mange ellers har forventet. Stærk EUR og svag kreditvækst presser ECB Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske og amerikanske aktiemarkeder falder om end de amerikanske retter sig sidst på aftenen. De asiatiske markeder begynder svagt, men retter sig ligeledes til en mere flad udvikling her til morgen, om end Nikkei ender dybt i rødt. Obligationsrenterne stiger og både EUR og JPY styrkes over for USD USA: ADP-beskæftigelsen overrasker positivt med en job-vækst på 215.000 i november. Selv om historikken viser at man skal passe på med at tage tallene for bogstaveligt i forhold til morgendagens officielle arbejdsmarkedsrapport så indikerer det dog en vis upside risiko for konsensus-skønnet på 185.000 i morgen, og har dermed også medvirket til at løfte forventningerne til at Fed kan påbegynde en opbremsning i obligationskøbene allerede i denne måned. Også salget af nye huse overraskede positivt i oktober, med den største stigning på en måned siden 1980. På den negative front så vi et fald i ISM-service indekset fra 55,4 til 53,9 med svagheder i især beskæftigelsesindekset, men indekset peger dog stadig på fornuftig BNP- og jobvækst. Lidt skuffende så faldt ansøgningerne om realkreditlån til huskøb men handelsunderskuddet blev indsnævret i oktober især som følge af pæn vækst i eksporten. Fed s Beige Book rapporterede om fortsat beskeden til moderat vækst og gav som sådan ingen deciderede signaler om muligheden for tapering på mødet i december. Euroområdet: Service-PMI gentog den marginalt positive overraskelse vi også så i fremstillingssektoren, med et stærkere udfald end i den foreløbige opgørelse. Niveauet på 51,2 i november er dog fortsat lavere end i måneden før. Tyskland var ene om at stå for overraskelsen, hvor divergensen til de andre lande og især Frankrig blev mere tydelig, med et fald i sidstnævntes service-ism. Italien oplevede dog det største fald. Samlet peger indikatorerne på et fortsat skrøbeligt opsving, og dermed ingen nævneværdig acceleration i forhold til BNP-væksten i 3. kvartal som blev bekræftet på 0,1% q/q. Detailsalget skuffede med et fald på -0,2% m/m i oktober Spanien: Moodys hæver kreditvurderingsudsigten fra negativ til stabil Danmark: Både hus- og lejlighedspriserne faldt i oktober, hvor førstnævnte nu har haft en faldende tendens siden juni. US: ISM-indeks peger på årlig vækst på ca. 2% For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. december 2013 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-1,05% / indeks 653,31) endte på linje med de øvrige europæiske aktieindeks endnu en dag i negativt terræn. Den negative stemning blev paradoksalt nok foranlediget af at der blev offentliggjort bedre end ventede tal for den private beskæftigelse i USA for november måned. Det satte yderligere fart i spekulationerne om hvorvidt at opsvinget i amerikansk økonomi efterhånden er så stærkt at Fed tidligere end ventet kan begynde at neddrosle deres obligationsopkøbsprogram. Dagens taber i det ledende C20-indeks blev endnu en dag Vestas (- 3,36% / kurs 141,10) efter det kom frem at vindmølleproducenten er blevet ramt af forsinkelse på et mexicansk vindmølleprojekt kendt under navnet Marena Renovables, som er baseret på 132 Vestas-møller. Novo Nordisk (-1,37% / kurs 974,50) var ligeledes under pres på trods af at en række finanshuse hævede deres kursmål på aktien i kølvandet på selskabets kapitalmarkedsdag. I den anden ende af indekset endte Chr. Hansen (+0,25% / kurs 201,50) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter Obligationsrenterne havde en markant pil opad i løbet af i går, hvor især stærke nøgletal fra USA, der øgede forventningerne til at Fed vil påbegynde en opbremsning af deres obligationsopkøb allerede i denne måned, var en medvirkende årsag. Fra euroområdet bidrog en lille opjustering af service-pmi i november muligvis også, om end divergensen mellem landene blev endnu mere udtalt, med stigning i Tyskland og en negativ udvikling i Frankrig og Italien. Også detailsalget i euroområdet skuffede med et fald i oktober, men det kunne altså ikke modsvare den større end ventede stigning i ADP-beskæftigelsen i USA på 215.000 personer. Også salget af nye huse steg kraftigt i USA i oktober, og det opvejde de lidt skuffende meldinger fra et fald i service-ism, der dog stadig befinder sig på et fornuftigt niveau, samt et fald i ansøgninger om realkreditlån. Valuta Trods stærke nøgletal fra USA, der var med til at løfte forventningerne til at Fed vil påbegynde en opbremsning af deres obligationsopkøb allerede i denne måned, var der ikke megen støtte at hente til USD: En kortvarig styrkelse over for EUR blev således afløst af nye svagheder, også til trods for, at nøgletallene fra euroområdet ikke var specielt imponerende, og hvor divergensen mellem de forskellige landes økonomier blev yderligere understreget i de reviderede PMI-service tal. Svagheder i ISM-service og i ansøgninger om realkreditlån i USA kan have holdt USD lidt tilbage, men ellers er det lidt svært at se hvorfor EUR i den givne situation skulle styrkes som tilfældet har været det, om end det kan skyldes en afventning på ECB-mødet og arbejdsmarkedsrapporten for nærmere afklaring af de pengepolitiske udsigter. JPY blev ligeledes styrket over for USD på den øgede risikoaversion der prægede aktiemarkederne. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 653.3-1.05 USD/JPY 102.1-0.460 USA 2.83 0.05 CRB 278.0 1.64 Stoxx600 317.2-0.59 EUR/USD 1.360 0.002 Euroområdet 1.81 0.09 Brent oil (1M fut) 111.6-1.08 FTSE 6510.0-0.34 USD/DKK 5.483-0.008 Danmark 1.86 0.09 Gold (spot) 1239.4 1.49 S&P500 1792.8-0.13 CHF/DKK 6.085 0.017 Nasdaq 4038.0 0.02 GBP/DKK 8.985-0.016 Hang Seng 23611.0-0.50 SEK/DKK 0.844 0.002 Nikkei 15192.8-1.40 NOK/DKK 0.892-0.007 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.500 2.83 2.80 3.00 3.30 EUR/USD 1.360 1.36 1.25 1.10 Euroland 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.81 1.80 1.80 2.00 USD/JPY 102.1 100.0 103.0 105.0 UK 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 2.90 2.70 2.80 3.00 USD/DKK 5.483 5.49 5.96 6.77 Danmark 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 1.86 1.90 1.95 2.15 EUR/DKK 7.459 7.46 7.45 7.45 Sverige 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 2.37 2.30 2.40 2.60 SEK/DKK 0.8442 0.853 0.887 0.898 Norge 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 2.89 2.90 2.90 3.00 NOK/DKK 0.8921 0.904 0.920 0.925 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 5. december 2013 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 01/12/13 02:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Nov 51.1 -- 51.4 51.4 02/12/13 02:45 Kina HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI Nov 50.5 -- 50.9 50.8 02/12/13 08:30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Nov 53.6 53.6 52.0 56.0 02/12/13 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Nov 53.0 53.6 54.5 02/12/13 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Nov 54.4 55.0 54.2 56.5 02/12/13 10:00 EMU PMI Manufacturing Nov F 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.6 02/12/13 10:30 UK PMI Manufacturing Nov 56.4 -- 56.0 58.4 02/12/13 14:58 USA Markit US PMI Final Nov 54.3 -- 54.3 54.7 02/12/13 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Nov 55.0 54.6 56.4 57.3 02/12/13 16:00 USA Construction Spending MoM Oct 0.4% -- -- 03/12/13 02:00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Nov -- -- 56.3 56.0 03/12/13 10:30 UK PMI Construction Nov 59.0 -- 59.4 62.6 03/12/13 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Oct -0.2%/-1.0% -- 0.1%/-0.9% -0.5%/-1.4% 03/12/13 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Nov -- -- 491.0 489.3 03/12/13 23:00 USA Total Vehicle Sales Nov 15.75M -- 15.15M 16.31 04/12/13 02:45 Kina HSBC/Markit Services PMI Nov -- -- 52.6 52.5 04/12/13 10:00 EMU PMI Services Nov F 50.9 50.9 50.9 51.2 04/12/13 10:00 EMU PMI Composite Nov F 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.7 04/12/13 10:30 UK PMI Services Nov 62.0 -- 62.5 60.0 04/12/13 11:00 EMU GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q P 0.1%/-0.4% 0.1%/-0.4% 0.1%/-0.4% 0.1%/-0.4% 04/12/13 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 29. Nov -- -- -0.3% -12.8% 04/12/13 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Nov 170K -- 184K(r) 215K 04/12/13 14:30 USA Trade Balance Oct -$40.0B -- -$43.0B -$40.6B 04/12/13 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Nov 55.0 56.0 55.4 53.9 04/12/13 16:00 USA New Home Sales Oct 429K -- 354K 444K 04/12/13 20:00 USA U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book 05/12/13 07:30 Frankrig ILO Unemployment Rate 3Q 11.0% -- 10.8%(r) 10.9% 05/12/13 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates 05. Dec 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 05/12/13 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 05. Dec 0.50% 0.50% 0.50% 05/12/13 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Dec 375B 375B 375B 05/12/13 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Nov -- -- -4.2% 05/12/13 13:45 EMU ECB Announces Interest Rates 05. Dec 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 05/12/13 14:15 USA Fed's Lockhart, Fisher Speaks on economy 05/12/13 14:30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference 05/12/13 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 29. Nov 322K -- 316K 05/12/13 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 3.1% -- 2.8% 05/12/13 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 01. Dec -- -- -33.7 05/12/13 16:00 USA Factory Orders (Mom) Oct -1.0% -- 1.7% 06/12/13 09:00 Schweiz Foreign Currency Reserves Nov -- -- 434.7B 06/12/13 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production MoM Oct -- 1.0% 1.6% 06/12/13 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) Nov -0.2%/-0.1% -0.2%/-0.1% -0.1%/-0.3% 06/12/13 12:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Oct -1.0%/4.1% -- 3.3%/7.9% 06/12/13 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Nov 185K 210K 204K 06/12/13 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Nov 7.2% 7.2% 7.3% 06/12/13 14:30 USA Personal Income (MoM) Oct 0.3% -- 0.5% 06/12/13 14:30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Oct 0.2% -- 0.2% 06/12/13 14:30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Oct 0.1%/1.1% -- 0.1%/1.2% 06/12/13 15:55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Dec P 76.0 76.5 75.1 06/12/13 16:15 USA Fed's Plosser, Evans Speaks Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, +45 33 41 82 03, jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, +45 33 41 86 19, ragu02@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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