2. april 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagens vigtigste nøgletal for de internationale finansielle markeder bliver ADP-beskæftigelsesindikatoren fra USA. Den er ikke altid lige god til at forudsige den officielle beskæftigelse i arbejdsmarkedsrapporten, men udfaldet af ADP vil alligevel nok påvirke forventningerne til fredagens fremgang i beskæftigelsen uden for landbruget. Her venter vi en stigning på over 215.000 personer i marts efter stigningen på 175.000 i februar. Hvis ADP-indikatoren kommer ud over 200.000 i dag (konsensusforventningen er 195.000), bliver vi mere sikre i vores sag. Dog faldt beskæftigelsesindekset i fremstillings-ism i går. Fed s Lockhart og Bullard taler begge to i aften. Dagens tal for udviklingen i den danske valutareserve i marts vil vise, om Nationalbanken for første gang siden januar sidste år har været aktiv og interveneret i markedet. Den danske krone bevægede sig i sidste uge op i nærheden af det svageste niveau nogensinde observeret siden den fælleseuropæiske valutas indførelse i 1999. Endvidere har kronen nu uafbrudt siden 8. januar befundet sig på den svage side af central-pariteten over for EUR på 7,46038. Vi venter et fald i valutareserven i omegnen af 30 mia. kr. men primært som følge af udenlandske afdrag og i mindre grad som følge af decideret intervention på valutamarkedet. Det ser dog ud til, at der har været stigende interventionsaktivitet sidst på måneden, og interventionerne kan være nået lige over de 10 mia. Den grundliggende tommelfingerregel baseret på de historiske erfaringer tilsiger, at Nationalbanken skal have solgt udenlandsk valuta for i omegnen af 10-15 mia. kr. før den tyr til rentevåbnet. Hvis kronen fortsætter med at befinde sig på de aktuelle svage niveauer over for EUR, er det efter vores vurdering blot et spørgsmål om tid, før Nationalbanken følger op med en forhøjelse af både indlåns- og udlånsrenten med 0,1%-point. Det spiller dog også ind, hvad ECB vælger at gøre på sit rentemøde i morgen. Hvis ECB sænker renten, behøver Nationalbanken ikke hæve renten for at rentespændet øges. DK: Har nationalbanken interveneret? Kilde: Macrobond I morgen tidlig offentliggøres både det officielle og Markit/HSBC s PMI for servicesektoren i Kina. Service-PMI tiltrækker sig dog normalt langt mindre opmærksomhed end fremstillings-pmi. Det ændrer sig måske i fremtiden, hvis myndighederne lykkes med deres erklærede mål om at øge servicesektorens betydning i økonomien. Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Både de amerikanske og europæiske aktiemarkeder lukkede i pæne plusser i går, og Asien ligger i plus her til morgen. Japans Nikkei er oppe med hele 1,7%. De lange renter steg, især i USA. EUR stærkere over for fx USD og GBP. JPY svagere. Der var i går ifølge NATO ingen tegn tilbagetrækning af russiske tropper fra grænsen til Ukraine, som Putin ellers lovede i weekenden. Endnu en (lille) kinesisk virksomhed måtte i går opgive at betale renter på sine virksomhedsobligationer. USA: ISM industriaktivitetsindikatoren for marts steg til 53,7 fra 53,2 i februar. Både vi og konsensus havde dog ventet en større stigning, og det store vejrrelaterede fald i januar blev således heller ikke indhentet denne gang. Der var da også tale om unormalt koldt vejr i begyndelsen af marts, så det er for tidligt at se fuldt igennem disse forstyrrelser og dermed om der har været tale om en mere grundlæggende opbremsning i industrien. Euroområdet: Den endelige opgørelse af PMI-fremstillingsindekset for marts var som ventet uændret i forhold til den foreløbige opgørelse. Arbejdsløshedsraten faldt til 11,9% i februar. Forventningen i markedet var uændret 12,0%. Det hører dog med til historien, at de foregående måneders ledighedsrate også blev nedjusteret, så tallene nu viser, at ledigheden har ligget konstant på 11,9% siden oktober. Mest opmuntrende var det, at antallet af ledige faldt med 35.000. Alt i alt tegner tallene et billede af at ledigheden er faldende, men i et meget langsomt tempo. Fremstillings-PMI for Storbritannien faldt lidt og Schweiz faldt meget fra februar til marts. Derimod steg norsk og især svensk PMI. US: ISM har ikke indhentet januarfaldet endnu For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. april 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+0,49% / indeks 760,18) endte i positivt terræn i dagens handel. Fremgangen var primært drevet af de cykliske aktier FLSmidth og Vestas. FLSmidth (+5,71% / kurs 289,00) blev dagens kursmæssige vinder efter rygter om en mulig storfusion mellem finske Metso og det skotske selskab Weir Group. Vestas (+5,37% / kurs 229,50) fulgte også godt med efter vindmølleproducenten meddelte, at de har modtaget en ordre fra USA på 194 MW. Tryg (+1,03% / kurs 541,50) fortsætter den positive trend og endte for anden dag i træk i rekordterræn. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-1,54% / kurs 64.000,00) efter der fragik udbytte svarende til 1.400 kr. per aktie. Dagens kursmæssige taber blev Chr. Hansen Holding (-2,14% / kurs 210,40) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter De lange amerikanske renter steg i går, idet fx den 10-årige statsrente steg med 3bp. Fremgang i ISM og bedre end ventet bilsalg var nok nogle af faktorerne bag. I Tyskland steg de lange renter også, men i mindre grad end i USA. Nøgletallene fra euroområdet var mere blandede med fald i ledigheden, men faldende PMI i flere lande. ECB s Constancio udtalte i går, at euroområdet vil undgå deflation, da det bløde opsving gradvist eliminerer den rigelige kapacitet i økonomien. De græske statsrenter fortsatte med at falde i går. Den græske finansminister var citeret for udtalelser om, at Grækenland regner med at foretage udstedelser af korte statsobligationer snarligt. Valuta EUR styrkedes over for USD i går, og bevægelsen er fortsat her til morgen. Amerikansk ISM og bilsalg gik frem i går, mens euroområdets PMI bekræftede den foreløbige opgørelse. JPY er svækket markant over for både USD og EUR. GBP er svækket over for EUR da britisk PMI faldt. Der var ventet stort set uændret PMI. Både AUD og NZD svækkedes, for førstnævntes vedkommende måske fordi centralbankchefen nævnte den stærke australdollar i forbindelse med at renten i går blev holdt uændret. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 760,2 0,49 USD/JPY 103,9 0,580 USA 2,77 0,03 CRB 301,9 1,64 Stoxx600 336,4 0,61 EUR/USD 1,381 0,003 Euroområdet 1,57 0,01 Brent oil (1M fut) 105,7-1,88 FTSE 6652,6 0,82 USD/DKK 5,407-0,012 Danmark 1,62 0,00 Gold (spot) 1282,3-0,20 S&P500 1885,5 0,70 CHF/DKK 6,125-0,002 Nasdaq 4268,0 1,64 GBP/DKK 8,992-0,038 Hang Seng 22535,4 0,39 SEK/DKK 0,839 0,001 Nikkei 15050,8 1,75 NOK/DKK 0,905-0,001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,500 2,77 2,65 3,20 3,50 EUR/USD 1,381 1,38 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,57 1,70 1,90 2,00 USD/JPY 103,8 102,0 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,73 2,85 3,00 3,25 USD/DKK 5,407 5,41 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,30 0,30 0,30 1,62 1,80 2,00 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,465 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,00 2,13 2,25 2,50 2,75 SEK/DKK 0,8392 0,811 0,847 0,887 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,25 2,90 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,9047 0,899 0,920 0,920 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 2. april 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 31-03-14 01:01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM/YoY) Mar -- -- 0.7%/5.4% 0.6%/5.7% 31-03-14 01:15 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Mar -- -- 55.5 53.9 31-03-14 01:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.3%/9.8% -- 3.8%/10.3% -2.3%/6.9% 31-03-14 08:00 Tyskland Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.5%/0.8% -- 1.7%/0.9% 1.3%/2.0% 31-03-14 08:45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F 0.3%/0.8% -- 0.3%/0.8% 0.3%/0.8% 31-03-14 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Mar 2.05 2.05 2.03 1.99 31-03-14 09:00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F -- -- -0.5%/0.6% -0.5%/0.6% 31-03-14 11:00 EMU CPI Estimate YoY Mar 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 31-03-14 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Mar A 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 31-03-14 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager Mar 58.5 -- 59.8 55.9 31-03-14 15:55 USA Fed's Yellen Speaks 31-03-14 16:30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Mar 2.5 -- 0.3 4.9 01-04-14 01:50 Japan Tankan Large Mfg Index 1Q 19 -- 16 17 01-04-14 03:00 Kina Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.1 -- 50.2 50.3 01-04-14 03:45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.1 -- 48.1 48.0 01-04-14 08:30 Sverige PMI Manufacturing Mar 53.7 53.7 54.6 56,5 01-04-14 09:00 Norge Manufacturing PMI Mar 51.5 -- 51.0 51.9 01-04-14 09:30 Schweiz PMI Manufacturing Mar 56.7 -- 57.6 54,4 01-04-14 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate Mar 6.8% -- 6.8% 6.7% 01-04-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 53.0 -- 53.0 53.0 01-04-14 10:30 UK Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Mar 56.5 -- 56.9 55,3 01-04-14 11:00 EMU Unemployment Rate Feb 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 11.9% 01-04-14 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Mar F 56.3 -- 55.5 55.5 01-04-14 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing Mar 54.0 54.5 53.2 53,7 01-04-14 16:00 USA Construction Spending MoM Feb 0.1% -- 0.1% 0.1% 01-04-14 USA Total Vehicle Sales Mar 15.80M -- 15.27M 01-04-14 EMU EU Finance Ministers, Central Bankers Meet in Athens 02-04-14 08:00 UK Nationwide House (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.8%/9.6% -- 0.6%/9.4% 02-04-14 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Jan 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 02-04-14 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI Mar 63.2 -- 62.6 02-04-14 11:00 EMU PPI (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.1%/-1.7% -- -0.3%/-0.4% 02-04-14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 28. mar -- -- -3.5% 02-04-14 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change Mar 190K -- 139K 02-04-14 16:00 Danmark Foreign Reserves Mar -- 445.0 475.4 02-04-14 16:00 USA Factory Orders (MoM) Feb 0.8% -- -0.7% 02-04-14 18:30 USA Fed's Lockhart, Bullard speaks 03-04-14 01:15 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI Mar -- -- -- 03-04-14 03:00 Kina Non-manufacturing PMI Mar -- -- 55.0 03-04-14 03:45 Kina HSBC China Composite PMI Mar -- -- -- 03-04-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Mar F 52.4 -- 52.4 03-04-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Mar F 53.2 -- 53.2 03-04-14 10:30 UK Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Mar 58.1 -- 58.2 03-04-14 11:00 EMU Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Feb -0.6% -- 1.6%/1.3% 03-04-14 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts YoY Mar -- -- -24.4% 03-04-14 13:45 EMU ECB Announces Interest Rates 03. apr 0.250% 0.250% 0.250% 03-04-14 13:45 EMU ECB Deposit Facility Rate 03. apr 0.000% 0.000% 0.000% 03-04-14 14:30 EMU ECB'S Draghi Holds Press Conference After Rate Decision 03-04-14 14:30 USA Trade Balance Feb -$38.5B -- -$39.1B 03-04-14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 28. mar -- -- 311K 03-04-14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 30. mar -- -- -31.5 03-04-14 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Mar F -- -- 55.5 03-04-14 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite Mar 53.5 54.0 51.6 04-04-14 09:30 Sverige Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Feb -- -- -0.3%/0.8% 04-04-14 12:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.3%/6.1% -- 1.0%/8.4% 04-04-14 14:30 USA Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 190K 210K 175K 04-04-14 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate Mar 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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