25. oktober 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Fra USA modtager vi i dag forbrugertillid fra Conference Board for oktober. Her ventes et fald efter at tilliden i september uventet steg til det højeste niveau i ni år. Modsat er forbrugertilliden fra Bloomberg og University of Michigan faldet på det seneste, og sidstnævnte til det laveste niveau i et år. Vi venter at CB-tilliden retter ind efter denne mere negative udvikling i overensstemmelse med at benzinpriserne er steget lidt på det sidste, samtidigt med at aktiemarkederne er faldet lidt tilbage og beskæftigelsesfremgangen er bremset lidt op. Derudover er boligpriserne faldet lidt tilbage de seneste par måneder. I den sammenhæng får vi også boligprisstatistikker for august fra S&P/CaseShiller samt FHFA. Euroområdet byder ind med et par nationale erhvervstillidsindeks fra Tyskland (IFO) og Frankrig (INSEE). Begge disse indeks er steget pænt i september, og det interessante bliver om den seneste relativt stærkere tyske udvikling (jf. PMI neden for) vil blive spejlet i oktober-indeksene. Der ventes umiddelbart ikke de store ændringer i indeksværdierne i oktober, men vi ser en risiko for en relativt svagere fransk udvikling. I den sammenhæng får vi også opgørelsen af nye ledige i Frankrig i september, hvor der ventes et lille fald oven på den meget kraftige stigning i august. Derudover skal ECB-chef Draghi tale om blandt andet pengepolitik i det økonomiske institut DIW i Berlin. USA: CB-tillid bør rette ind (ned) efter Michigan Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Stabil udvikling på aktiemarkederne i Europa mens USA stiger. Renterne trækker i vejret og JPY svækkes mens EUR/USD udvikler sig fladt. Til morgen fortsætter den let positive børsstemning i Asien. USA: Vi havde en række Fed-taler, hvor Bulllard blandt andet udtalte at renterne vil holde sig lave i de næste to til tre år om end der er plads til én renteforhøjelse i forecasthorisonten. Bullard der normalt er kendt som en høg - understregede også, at dette syn på renten er mere nedtonet end hos resten af rentekomitéen (FOMC). Derudover så hans FOMC-kollega Evans (kendt som due og pt. ikke stemmeberettiget medlem af FOMC) mulighed for tre renteforhøjelser inden udgangen af 2017, og samtidigt mente han, at Fed bør være mere klar i kommunikationen om hvilke kriterier der skal lægges til grund for fremtidige opstramninger. Markits foreløbige fremstillings-pmi steg uventet i oktober til 53,2 fra 51,5 i september og dermed nåede indekset op i højeste niveau i et år. Det peger ligesom foreløbige regionale PMI-indeks på, at fremstillingssektoren ser lidt lysere på tingene forud for ISM-indekset for oktober, som vi får i næste uge. Euroområdet: Vi fik foreløbige PMI-indeks for euroområdet i oktober. Og det sammenfattende Composite PMI-indeks steg kraftigt i oktober til 53,7 fra 52,6 i september og nåede dermed uventet det højeste niveau i år. Det antyder, at væksten vil kom lidt op i gear i 4. kvartal. Når det så er sagt, er der tegn på, at en del af stigningen skyldes en korrektion efter et par træge sommermåneder især inden for fremstillingsindustrien. Som ventet var der den største stigning i service-pmi i oktober, men PMI-stigningen inden for fremstilling steg samtidigt til det højeste niveau i 30 måneder, hvilket var mest overraskende. En del af denne stigning bør dog tilskrives en midlertidig effekt af ferielukninger, især blandt bilfabrikkerne. Derfor forventer vi ikke at det bedrede momentum her vil vare ved, idet oliepriser og EUR bør give mindre støtte i de kommende måneder. Det var især det tyske PMIindeks der overraskede positivt mens det franske skuffede og tendens til vækstdivergens mellem de to lande blev således genetableret. PMIindekset for oktober støtter ECB i, at banken aktuelt ikke bør være specielt bekymret over vækstudsigterne. Dertil kommer, at prisindekset for Composite PMI steg til 50,5, og dermed viser stigende priser (med en indeksværdi over 50) for første gang siden 2011. UK: Opgørelsen af aktiviteten inden for nye fremstillingsordrer viste i henhold til CBI (Confederation of British Industries) et markant fald i oktober til det laveste niveau i otte måneder. Det kan meget vel skyldes en forsinket negativ reaktion på brexit. EUR-PMI med prisstigning første gang siden 2011 Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. oktober 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (+0,04% / indeks 1.046,37) endte uændret på ugens første handelsdag. Dette til trods for, at de foreløbige PMI indeks for eurozonen overraskede positivt. I toppen af indekset endte FLSmidth (+2,91% / kurs 265,00) efter det svenske industriselskab Sandvik leverede et bedre end ventet regnskab i tredje kvartal. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+1,07% / kurs 10.360,00) fulgte godt med efter olieprisen har stabiliseret sig idet OPEC landene ser ud til at være blevet mere enige omkring produktionen af olie end de plejer at være. Foruden en stabilisering af olieprisen er dollaren styrket, hvilket har givet A.P. Møller-Mærsk-aktien medvind. I den anden ende af indekset endte de mere defensive aktier, hvilket har været en gennemgående trend på det seneste. Dagens kursmæssige taber blev Lundbeck (-1,42% / kurs 222,90). Pandora (-0,98% / kurs 909,00) endte også lavere, hvilket sandsynligvis skyldtes gevinsthjemtagning i kølvandet på den seneste tids stærke kursudvikling. Novo Nordisk (-0,53% / kurs 282,10) satte sig også en smule efter et internationalt finanshus sænkede kursmålet på aktien. Renter Obligationsmarkederne lagde mandag ud med lavere renteniveauer. Dog trak statsrenterne (herunder tyske og danske) opad i løbet af formiddagen i overensstemmelse med en positiv stemning på aktiemarkederne kombineret med en uventet stor stigning i euroområdets PMI-indeks i oktober, hvor Compositeindekset nåede det højeste niveau i år. Derudover faldt statsrenterne i EURperiferilandene, efter at Portugal fik lov til at beholde sin investement grade rating af kreditvurderingsbureauet DBRS samt efter at Spaniens Socialistparti indvilligede i, at den fungerende PM Rajoy kan få lov til at sidde endnu en periode og dermed løsne op for den langvarige politiske hårdknude. Tyske og danske renter endte med små stigninger. I USA blev stigningen i statsrenterne lidt tydeligere, efter at Markit s PMIfremstillingsindeks steg uventet meget samt efter en lidt mere positiv børsudvikling her. Derudover fik vi lidt blandede Fed-taler, som ikke ændrede stort på dagens rentestigning. Valuta EUR blev styrket i løbet af formiddagen efter at PMI-indekset steg uventet kraftigt i oktober til det højeste niveau i år. Derudover beholdt Portugal sin Investment Grade -rating hos DBRS og i Spanien så den politiske hårdknude ud til at løsne lidt op med tegn på at PM Rajoy får endnu en regeringsperiode. USD blev for del først svækket en smule mod EUR, da vi på den ene side fik vi dueagtig udtalelse fra Fed s Bullard, mens vi på den anden side fik en uventet stigning i Markits fremstillingsindeks og en mere høgeagtig udtalelse fra Fed s Evans. Det betød at EUR/USD endte dagen stort set uændret. JPY blev generelt svækket på en generelt positiv stemning på børserne oven på dagens positive overraskelse i PMIfremstillingsindeksene i USA og euroområdet. GBP blev blot midlertidigt svækket da vi modtog markant svagere ordreindeks fra CBI end ventet i oktober. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP 1046.4 0.04 USD/JPY 104.4 0.590 USA 1.76 0.03 CRB 189.4 0.02 Stoxx600 344.3-0.01 EUR/USD 1.088 0.000 Euroområdet 0.02 0.02 Brent oil (1M fut) 51.4-0.37 FTSE 6986.4-0.49 USD/DKK 6.836-0.002 Danmark 0.15 0.02 Gold (spot) 1266.0 0.04 S&P500 2151.3 0.47 CHF/DKK 6.875-0.005 Nasdaq 5309.8 1.00 GBP/DKK 8.357 0.006 Hang Seng 23566.3-0.16 SEK/DKK 0.768 0.001 Nikkei 17348.7 0.66 NOK/DKK 0.828 0.001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 Aktuelt Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 Aktuelt Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q3 2017 USA 0.250 0.625 0.625 0.625 1.76 1.70 1.70 1.70 USD/DKK 6.838 6.83 6.96 6.96 Euroland -0.40-0.40-0.40-0.40 0.02-0.05-0.05-0.05 EUR/DKK 7.439 7.44 7.45 7.45 UK 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.08 0.80 0.90 1.00 GBP/DKK 8.364 8.45 8.47 8.47 Danmark -0.65-0.65-0.65-0.65 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.15 CHF/DKK 6.875 6.89 6.90 6.90 Sverige -0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50 0.15 0.30 0.40 0.55 SEK/DKK 0.7677 0.779 0.805 0.828 Norge 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.25 1.29 1.20 1.20 1.10 NOK/DKK 0.8286 0.818 0.828 0.828 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 25. oktober 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 24-10-16 Parken Sport & Entertainmant A/S 3. kvartal 26-10-16 Novozymes A/S 3. kvartal 26-10-16 Chr. Hansen Holding A/S Helårsregnskab 26-10-16 Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S 3. kvartal 27-10-16 Jyske Bank A/S 3. kvartal 27-10-16 Tivoli A/S 3. kvartal 28-10-16 Novo Nordisk A/S 3. kvartal 28-10-16 Danske Bank A/S 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 24-10-16 01:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Sep 211.0b -- 364.4b 349.0b 24-10-16 02:30 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Oct P -- -- 50.4 51.7 24-10-16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Oct P 52.7 52.6 52.6 53.3 24-10-16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Oct P 52.4 52.6 52.2 53.5 24-10-16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Oct P 52.8 53.0 52.6 53.7 24-10-16 12:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Oct -5 -- -5-17 24-10-16 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Sep -0.13 -- -0.72(r) -0.14 24-10-16 15:00 Kina Conference Board Leading Index 24-10-16 15:00 USA Fed's Dudley and Bullard Speaks 24-10-16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Oct P 51.5 -- 51.5 53.2 24-10-16 19:30 USA Fed's Evans and Powell Speaks 25-10-16 08:45 Frankrig Business Confidence Oct 102 -- 102 25-10-16 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Oct 109.6 109.5 109.5 25-10-16 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Aug 0.5% -- 0.5% 25-10-16 15:00 USA S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.10%/5.05% -- -0.01%/5.02% 25-10-16 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Oct 101.0 -- 104.1 25-10-16 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Oct -4 -- -8 25-10-16 16:30 EMU ECB President Draghi Speaks 25-10-16 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Sep -16.8 -- 50.2 25-10-16 19:20 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks 26-10-16 03:45 Kina Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment Oct -- -- 115.2 26-10-16 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Nov 10.0 -- 10.0 26-10-16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Oct 98 -- 97 26-10-16 10:00 Italien Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Aug 0.4%/0.5% -- -0.3%/-0.2% 26-10-16 10:30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Sep 37530 -- 36997 26-10-16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 21. okt -- -- 0.6% 26-10-16 14:30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Sep -$60.8b -- -$59.2b 26-10-16 14:30 USA Wholesale Inventories (MoM) Sep P 0.1% -- -0.2% 26-10-16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Oct P 52.4 -- 52.3 26-10-16 16:00 USA New Home Sales Sep 600k -- 609k 27-10-16 03:30 Kina Industrial Profits (YoY) Sep -- -- 19.5% 27-10-16 08:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Aug 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 27-10-16 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Oct 102.8 102.8 103.0 27-10-16 09:30 Sverige Riksbank Interest Rate 27. okt -0.5% -0.5% -0.5% 27-10-16 10:00 Norge Deposit Rates 27. okt 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 27-10-16 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply (YoY) Sep 5.1% -- 5.1% 27-10-16 10:00 Italien Manufacturing Confidence Oct 102.2 -- 101.9 27-10-16 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.3%/2.1% -- 0.7%/2.1% 27-10-16 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders Sep P 0.1% -- 0.1% 27-10-16 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Sep P -0.1% -- 0.9% 27-10-16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 22. okt 255k -- 260k 27-10-16 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 23. okt -- -- 41.3 27-10-16 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 1.1%/-- -- -2.4%/4.0% 27-10-16 17:00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Oct 3 -- 6 27-10-16 19:00 EMU ECB's Mersch Speaks 28-10-16 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate Sep 3.1% -- 3.1% 28-10-16 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Sep -0.5% -- -0.5% 28-10-16 07:30 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 3Q A 0.3%/1.2% -- -0.1%/1.3% 28-10-16 08:00 Norge Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel (MoM) Sep 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 28-10-16 08:45 Frankrig CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.2%/0.6% -- -0.2%/0.5% 28-10-16 09:00 Spanien CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P --/0.3% -- 0.0%/0.2% 28-10-16 09:00 Spanien GDP (QoQ/YoY) Q3 P 0.7%/3.1% -- 0.8%/3.2% 28-10-16 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator Oct -- -- 101.3 28-10-16 09:30 EMU ECB's Coeure Speaks 28-10-16 09:30 Sverige Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Sep 0.3%/2.7% 0.7%/3.0% 0.6%/2.8% 28-10-16 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate Oct 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 28-10-16 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Oct 104.9 104.8 104.9 28-10-16 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Oct P 0.1%/0.7% -- 0.1%/0.7% 28-10-16 14:30 USA Employment Cost Index 3Q 0.6% -- 0.6% 28-10-16 14:30 USA GDP Annualized (QoQ) 3Q A 2.5% -- 1.4% 28-10-16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Oct F 88.2 -- 87.9 Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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