Morgenmelding Handelsbanken 20. februar 2014 Mac Dagens fokus Til formiddag offentliggøres den foreløbige opgørelse af PMI-indeksene for euroområdet for februar. Det sammenfattende økonomiske Composite-indeks er lidt uventet steget kraftigt på det seneste for i januar at nå det højeste niveau siden midt 2011, hvilket ikke mindst ECB har fundet trøst i i forbindelse med forventningen om, at det moderate opsving fortsætter ind i 2014. Stigningen har især været drevet af en overraskende fremgang inden for fremstillingssektoren, mens servicesektoren er kørt mere sidelæns det seneste halve år. I februar venter vi et lille fald i PMI-indekset, hvilket er blevet indikeret af en fladere rentekurve i forbindelse med den seneste uro på finansmarkederne. Faldet ses især drevet af et ventet fald inden for fremstillingssektoren. Således mener vi ikke, at euroområdet kan isolere sig fra faldene vi har set i USA og til dels Kina (se figur), selv om faldet i USA delvist kan tilskrives hjemlige vejrforhold. Dertil skal lægges, at den relativt stærke EUR snarest bør begrænse mulighederne for fremgang. På den positive side vurderer vi, at der er potentiale for øget fremgang inden for servicesektoren, hvilket vi baserer på positiv udvikling i andre indikatorer såsom Europakommissionens serviceindeks samt det investorbaserede Sentix-indeks. Bedringen ses desuden hjulpet på vej af den seneste mere positive udvikling på arbejdsmarkedet. Til eftermiddag rettes øjnene på den anden side af Atlanten, hvor der offentliggøres tal for den amerikanske inflation. Kerneinflationen (inflationen renset for prisstigninger på fødevarer og energi) ventes at stige 0,1% m-o-m ligesom i december. Senere på eftermiddagen kommer Philadelphia Fed industriaktivitetsindikatoren. Vi modtager danske detailsalgstal for januar. Trods det lille fald i forbrugertilliden i går (se neden for), ligger tilliden fortsat relativt højt, hvilket taler for fremgang i detailomsætningen. På den anden side har dankortomsætningen peget på nedtonet salg igen i januar, hvorfor vi forventer et nyt fald i salget. Faldet ventes dog ikke så stort som det store tilbagefald vi så i december, herunder kan lidt køligere vejr have holdt hånden under tøjsalget denne gang om end store prisstigninger på tøj i januar kan have begrænset potentialet i den reale afsætning. Vær derudover opmærksom på, at detailsalget for hele 2013 vil blive revideret en smule op pga. en beregningsfejl fra Danmarks Statistik. Eurozonen kan ikke isolere sig fra global svaghed Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkeder i Asien og futures på de amerikanske indeks er her til morgen faldet markant oven på svagt kinesisk PMI, og de europæiske markeder må ventes at åbne i rødt. Renterne steg efter FOMCreferatet i går aftes men faldt her til morgen efter Kina-PMI. Valutamarkederne er også gået først den ene og så den anden vej, og de store kryds inklusive EUR/USD er nu stort set uændret ift. i går morges. Kina: PMI for fremstillingssektoren (Markit/HSBC) tog et kraftigt og uventet dyk fra 49,5 til 48,3 ovenpå sidste måneds ligeså store fald. Det var især underkomponenten for nye ordrer, som faldt, mens nye eksportordrer faldt mindre. Det indikerer en opbremsning i den indenlandske økonomi, men kan også delvist tilskrives manglende ordrer pga. det kinesiske nytår. Nytåret falder ikke i i samme måned hvert år, hvilket gør det svært at sæsonkorrigere data. Nytår eller ej, så er dagens tal meget svage, og understreger, at effekten af opstramningerne af pengepolitikken har sat ind. USA: Referatet af seneste FOMC-møde viste, at der var enighed om snart at ændre forward guidance-politikken nu hvor ledigheden er faldet til tæt på tærskelværdien. Der var ligeledes nogenlunde enighed om, at opkøbstempoet burde mindskes i gradvise skridt. Det påbegyndte boligbyggeri faldt markant i januar, hvilket i høj grad kan tilskrives det hårde vejr. Antallet af byggetilladelser, som ikke bør afhænge af vejret, faldt dog også, men ikke nær så markant. Storbritannien: Referatet fra seneste møde i Bank of England viste, at der ikke formelt blev stemt om ændringen af forward guidance -politikken, men referatet tydede ikke på uenighed. Efter ændringen er der mindre vægt på ledigheden end tidligere, så markedet kunne tage gårsdagens nyhed, om at ledigheden for en gang skyld steg, roligt. Danmark: Forbrugertilliden faldt i februar til 4,2 fra det lidt overraskende høje niveau på 6,3 i januar. Det er værd at bide mærke i, at der fortsat ventes lavere ledighed og afdæmpet prisudvikling fremover. Begge dele er faktorer, der kan understøtte privatforbruget, så længe der ikke bliver tale om decideret deflation. Kina: For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 20. februar 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (+1,04% / indeks 747,64) endte dagen i rekordniveau. I toppen af indekset endte Carlsberg (+7,14% / kurs 585,00) som rapporterede et regnskab der stort set var på niveau med markedets forventninger, men dog var bedre end mange investorer havde frygtet. Pandora (+4.12% / kurs 338,30) fulgte også godt med efter en lang række finanshuse hævede deres kursmål på aktien i kølvandet på den foregående dags regnskab, som grundlæggende var bedre end ventet. FLSmidth (+0.88% / kurs 287,50) havde ligeledes en god dag efter selskabet kunne annoncere en cement relateret ordre fra Hope Construction Materials i Storbritannien. FLSmidth skal således stå for procesoptimeringen på Hope Constructions Materials' cementfabrik i Derbyshire. Uden for det ledende danske C20-indeks havde Sydbank (-2,91% / kurs 143,50) en dårlig dag. Banken rapporterede regnskab for 4. kvartal, som grundlæggende var skuffende. Således var nettorenteindtægter og handelsindtægter lavere end ventet, imens nedskrivningerne på udlån var højere end ventet. Renter De danske statsrenter kravlede svagt nedad i gårsdagens handel sammen med de fleste andre eurolandes statsrenter. Således faldt den tyske rente også selvom der på gårsdagens tyske auktion kun var bud for lidt mere end udbuddet og dermed færre bud end ventet. De spanske statsobligationer skilte sig ud fra mængden ved at falde i kurs efter flere dage med markante rentefald. Efter lukketid i Europa førte offentliggørelsen af referatet fra det seneste FOMC-møde i Fed til stigende amerikanske renter, idet FOMC på mødet havde været enige om, at det var på tide at ændre forward guidance-politikken nu hvor ledigheden nærmer sig tærskelværdien. Renterne faldt tilbage igen her til morgen da kinesisk fremstillings-pmi tog endnu et dyk og skabte fornyet tvivl om vækstudsigterne for verdens andenstørste økonomi. Valuta Valutamarkederne har kørt lidt op og ned det seneste døgn drevet af først offentliggørelsen af FOMC-referatet og siden kinesisk PMI. Flere af de store kryds inklusive EUR/USD ligger således her til morgen stort set uændret i forhold til i går morges trods udsving undervejs. JPY er styrket over for USD da det svage kinesiske PMI medførte safe haven flows til Japan. CNH (CNY handlet uden for Kina) svækkedes tilsvarende. Typiske råvarevalutaer som fx AUD svækkedes også. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktu elt %- Ændri ng Aktuel t Ænd rin g Aktue lt Æn dri ng Aktue lt Æn drin g OMXC20CAP 747,6 1,04 USD/JPY 101,9-0,320 USA 2,71 0,01 CRB 301,7 1,64 Stoxx600 334,9 0,10 EUR/USD 1,376 0,000 Euroområdet 1,66-0,01 Brent oil (1M fut) 109,9-0,30 FTSE 6796,7 0,00 USD/DKK 5,424 0,000 Danmark 1,67-0,01 Gold (spot) 1313,4-0,35 S&P500 1828,8-0,65 CHF/DKK 6,119 0,011 Nasdaq 4238,0-0,82 GBP/DKK 9,047-0,006 Hang Seng 22411,1-1,12 SEK/DKK 0,833-0,003 Nikkei 14476,3-1,97 NOK/DKK 0,894-0,004 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,500 2,71 2,95 3,10 3,30 EUR/USD 1,376 1,37 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,66 1,90 1,90 2,00 U SD/JPY 101,9 104,0 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,73 3,00 3,10 3,30 U SD/DKK 5,424 5,45 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,30 0,30 0,30 1,67 1,95 2,05 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,462 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,00 2,18 2,50 2,50 2,60 SEK/DKK 0,8335 0,857 0,887 0,898 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,25 1,25 2,77 2,90 2,90 3,00 N OK/DKK 0,8940 0,899 0,920 0,920 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 20. februar 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 18-02-14 Pandora Årsregnskab 19-02-14 Sydbank Årsregnskab 19-02-14 Carlsberg Årsregnskab 20-02-14 Greentech Årsregnskab 21-02-14 Rockwool Årsregnskab 21-02-14 Matas 3. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrig e Faktisk 17-02-14 00:50 Japan GDP Annualized SA QoQ 4Q P 2,8% -- 1,1% 1.0% 17-02-14 01:01 UK Rightmove House Prices (MoM/YoY) Feb -- -- 1.0%/6.3% 3.3%/6.9% 17-02-14 05:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Dec F -- -- 1.1%/7.3% 0.9%/7.1% 17-02-14 EMU ECB's Nowotny Speaks 18-02-14 Japan BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target 270T -- 270T 270T 18-02-14 09:30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.9%/0.1% -0.9%/0.1% 0.3%/0.1% -1,2%/-0,2% 18-02-14 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) Jan --/0.7% -0.8%/0.7% 0.3% /0.8% -1,1%/0,4% 18-02-14 10:30 UK CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.5%/2.0% -- 0.4/2.0% -0,6%/1,9% 18-02-14 10:30 UK CPI Core (YoY) Jan 1,9% -- 1,7% 1,6% 18-02-14 10:30 UK ONS House Price (YoY) Dec 6,0% -- 5,4% 0 18-02-14 11:00 Tyskland ZEW Survey Expectations Feb 61,5 -- 61,7 55,7 18-02-14 11:20 EMU ECB's Praet, Linde Speaks 18-02-14 14:30 USA Empire Manufacturing Feb 9,00 -- 12,51 4,5 18-02-14 15:00 USA Net Long-term TIC Flows Dec -- -- -$29.3B -$45,9B 18-02-14 16:00 USA NAHB Housing Market Index Feb 56 -- 56 46 19-02-14 09:00 Danmark Consumer confidence n.s.a. Feb 5,0 3,0 6,3 4,2 19-02-14 10:30 UK Bank of England Minutes 19-02-14 10:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Dec 7,1% -- 7,1% 7,2% 19-02-14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 14. feb -- -- -2,0% -4,1% 19-02-14 14:30 USA Housing Starts Jan 950K -- 999K 880K 19-02-14 14:30 USA Building Permits Jan 975K -- 991K 937K 19-02-14 14:30 USA PPI (MoM/YoY) Jan -- -- 0,1%/1,1% 0,2%/1,2% 19-02-14 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Jan -- -- 0.0% /1.2% 0,2%/1,3% 19-02-14 18:15 USA Fed's Lockhart, Bullard speaks 19-02-14 20:00 USA Fed Releases Minutes from Jan 28-29 FOMC Meeting 20-02-14 00:50 Japan Trade Balance Adjusted Jan - 1520.0B -- - 1148.6B - 2790.0B 20-02-14 01:00 USA Fed's Williams Speaks on the Economy 20-02-14 02:45 Kina HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI Feb 49,5 -- 49,5 48,3 20-02-14 08:00 Tyskland PPI (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.2%/-0.8% -- 0.1%/-0.5% 20-02-14 08:45 Frankrig CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.4%/0.9% -- 0.4%/0.8% 20-02-14 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 0,1%/-- -0.2%/-- -0.6%/-1.5% 20-02-14 10:00 EMU PMI Manufacturing Feb A 54,0 52,0 54,0 20-02-14 10:00 EMU PMI Services Feb A 51,9 52,0 51,6 20-02-14 10:00 EMU PMI Composite Feb A 53,1 52,0 52,9 20-02-14 12:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Feb 5 -- -2 20-02-14 14:30 USA CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.1%/1.6% -- 0.3%/1.5% 20-02-14 14:30 USA CPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.1%/1.6% -- 0.1%/1.7% 20-02-14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 15. feb 330K -- 339K 20-02-14 14:58 USA Markit US PMI Preliminary Feb 53,7 -- -- 20-02-14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 16. feb -- -- -- 20-02-14 16:00 USA Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Feb 10,0 -- 9,4 20-02-14 16:00 USA Mortgage Delinquencies 4Q -- -- 6,41% 20-02-14 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Feb A -11,0 -- -11,7 20-02-14 16:00 USA Leading Index Jan 0,4% -- 0,1% 21-02-14 10:30 UK Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM/YoY) Jan -1.0%/5.0% -- 2.6%/5.4% 21-02-14 10:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Jan -9.0B -- 10.4B 21-02-14 12:00 EMU ECB Announces 3-Year LTRO Repayment 21-02-14 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Jan 4.70M -- 4.87M 21-02-14 19:10 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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