26. september 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Dagen i dag bliver rimelig stille hvad angår de økonomiske begivenheder. Der kommer et par nationale forbrugertillidsopgørelser fra Frankrig og Tyskland vedrørende september. Der ventes et lille fald i Tyskland og en fortsat stabil fransk tillid. Vi har dog allerede modtaget et uventet stort fald i forbrugertilliden for euroområdet, hvilket gør dem en smule mindre interessante. Derudover ventes der en lille oprevidering af BNP-væksten i USA til 4,6% q/q annualiseret i den endelige opgørelse for 2. kvartal. Ligeså ventes der en lille oprevidering af forbrugertilliden i University of Michigan s opgørelses over september. Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne trækker først op, men falder tilbage i løbet af torsdagen trukket ned af stort kursfald i USA (største siden juli). Det skyldtes kombination af Fed-opstramningsfrygt og geopolitiske bekymringer. Renterne falder og USD styrkes endnu en dag. Asien-børserne følger med nedad til morgen. USA: Torsdagen bød på en række blandede USA-nøgletal. På den positive side var en større end ventet stigning i kerneordreindgangen på varige goder (ikke-militære kapitalgoder eksklusiv fly), som typisk giver en god proxy for udviklingen i de faste investeringer blandt virksomhederne. I august steg disse mere end ventet med 0,6% m/m efter at faldet i juli samtidigt blev revideret ned. Dermed fastholdes udsigten til at investeringsvæksten vil tage yderligere til i 3. kvartal. Dertil skulle lægges, at antallet af nytilmeldte ledige på overførselsindkomst steg knapt så meget som ventet i sidste uge. Det bragte 4-ugers gennemsnittet under 300.000 personer, og dermed sender tallene stadig et mere robust signal for arbejdsmarkedet end det der fremgik af beskæftigelsen i augustarbejdsmarkedsrapporten (se figur). På den anden side modtog vi Markits opgørelse af service-pmi som viste et uventet stort fald i september. Sammen med det uændrede PMI-fremstillingsindeks for september tidligere på ugen peger det på, at vi også bør vente fald i ISM-indekset i den kommende tid sandsynligvis anført af servicesektoren (se figur). Tilsvarende modtog vi lidt skuffende input for forbrugertilliden, da Bloombergs ugentlige forbrugertillidsindeks faldt tilbage til det laveste niveau siden juni. Fed s Lockhart ser en mulig første renteforhøjelse i midt-2015 eller lidt senere, hvilket neutralt i forhold til centralbankens officielle udmelding. Han forventede, at USD-stykelsen vil dæmpe eksporten de kommende måneder, samt at USD vil holde niveauet eller endda styrkes yderligere. En renteforhøjelse i 1. kvartal 2015 vil være en forhastet beslutning tilføjede han. Rusland: Ifølge rapport er den russiske regering ved at udarbejde lovgivning som vil indefryse udenlandske aktiver, som svar på de seneste sanktioner. Japan: Forbrugerprisinflationen (eksklusiv friske fødevarer) viste et større fald end ventet i august til 3,1% fra 3,3% i juli. Derudover faldt Tokyos inflation yderligere i september til 2,6%. Eksklusiv effekten af momsforhøjelsen var inflationen 1,1% i august, og BoJ-chef Kuroda udtrykte forleden ny optimisme om at den svækkede JPY vil bidrage til ny inflationsløft mellem oktober og marts 2015 (se figur). Euroområdet: ECB-chef Draghi udtaler, at ECB er parat til at benytte yderligere ukonventionelle instrumenter, samt at ECB også vil overveje at ændre på størrelse eller sammensætningen af sine ukonventionelle interventioner. Opgørelsen over kreditvæksten i den private sektor viste en ny stigning til -1,5% y/y i august op -1,6% i juli. Dermed fortsatte den gradvise stigning igennem året, men det er dog fortsat næppe nok til at gøre ECB meget mere optimistisk omkring udlånssituationen. Storbritannien: BoE-chef Carney udtaler, at tidspunktet for renteforhøjelser er kommet tættere på. Således ser han, at de økonomiske udsigter er blevet meget forbedrede. Således er renteforhøjelsesargumenterne blevet mere balancerede, og for lave renter for længe øger andre risici end den største risiko udgående fra boligmarkedet, tilføjede Carney. USA: Nytilmeldte ledige fortsætter pæne takter USA: Markit PMI fortsætter fald Japan: Kuroda optimist på JPY-inflationseffekt For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. september 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,18% / indeks 807,13) endte i negativt territorium på trods af, at euroen igennem den seneste tid er blevet svækket over for dollaren og på nuværende tidspunkt befinder sig på det laveste niveau siden 2012, hvilket især vil komme de europæiske eksportfirmaer til gavn. Den negative stemning op mod lukketid var primært drevet af rygter om, at Rusland arbejder på indfrysning af udenlandske aktiver. I toppen af indekset endte Genmab (+3,47% / kurs 244,50) efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. William Demant Holding (+2,30% / kurs 450,00) endte også højere efter styrkelsen af dollaren, hvilket kan gavne efterspørgslen på høreapparatvirksomhedens produkter, da de bliver billigere at importere for amerikanerne. TDC (+1,74% / kurs 44,98) endte fulgte godt med efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve anbefalingen på aktien. Novo Nordisk (+0,83% / kurs 279,60) fik også medvind af den seneste tids styrkelse af dollaren. I den anden ende af indekset endte A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-3,32% / kurs 13.980,00) og er dermed fortsat under pres efter gårsdagens kapitalmarkedsdag, da den positive nyhed som investorerne havde sat næsen op efter udeblev. Renter Obligationsrenterne trak yderligere nedad i Europa, herunder især i EUR-periferilande, efter at ECB-chef Draghi udtalte, at centralbanken er parat til yderligere ukonventionelle tiltag, hvis det bedømmes nødvendigt. Rentefaldet fortsatte i løbet af eftermiddagen, men stoppede op efter offentliggørelsen af ganske pæne USA-nøgletal, hvor nye ledige steg mindre end ventet, og kerneordrerne viste sig større end ventet. Rentefaldet blev dog genoptaget, efter at Markits service-pmi samt bloomberg-forbrugertilliden skuffede. Derudover trak en negativ stemning på aktiemarkederne især i USA ekstra nedad i renteudviklingen. Således endte dagen med et dobbelt så stort rentefald i den toneangivende 10- årige statsrente i USA i forhold til rentefaldet i Tyskland og Danmark. Det var det største rentefald i USA i seks uger. Valuta USD fortsatte den seneste tendens til styrkelse hjulpet af fortsat pæne nøgletal i form af nytilmeldte ledige samt kerneordrer. Styrkelsen stoppede imidlertid op, efter at Service- PMI samt Bloomberg-forbrugertillid begge skuffende faldt mere end ventet. Derudover advarede Fed s Lockhart mod en forhastet beslutning, med hensyn til muligheden for tidligere renteforhøjelse end midt-2015, som hidtil er blevet skitseret af Fed. EUR svækkes efter Draghi-kommentarer om at ECB er parat til yderligere ukonventionelle tiltag, hvis det bedømmes nødvendigt. GBP blev styrket understøttet af BoE-chef Carney, der understregede, at tidspunktet for en første renteforhøjelse er kommet tættere på. JPY blev styrket torsdag i takt med at den negative stemning fik overtaget på aktiemarkederne. Til morgen blev JPY dog svækket en smule. Det kunne tilskrives det større end ventet fald i forbrugerprisinflationen i august. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 807,1-0,18 USD/JPY 109,0-0,120 USA 2,50-0,06 CRB 279,2 1,64 Stoxx600 341,4-0,85 EUR/USD 1,275-0,002 Euroområdet 0,97-0,03 Brent oil (1M fut) 97,0 0,34 FTSE 6639,7-0,99 USD/DKK 5,839 0,010 Danmark 0,96 0,00 Gold (spot) 1223,2 0,75 S&P500 1966,0-1,62 CHF/DKK 6,166 0,004 Nasdaq 4466,7-1,94 GBP/DKK 9,522 0,005 Hang Seng 23673,4-0,40 SEK/DKK 0,810-0,001 Nikkei 16191,3-1,12 NOK/DKK 0,912 0,001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,500 1,000 2,50 2,45 2,80 3,10 EUR/USD 1,275 1,27 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,97 0,95 1,30 1,60 USD/JPY 109,0 107,0 105,0 107,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,75 1,00 2,48 2,55 2,75 3,00 USD/DKK 5,839 5,87 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,96 1,00 1,35 1,65 EUR/DKK 7,443 7,45 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,75 1,54 1,50 1,95 2,30 SEK/DKK 0,8099 0,819 0,828 0,851 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,50 2,40 2,60 2,70 2,70 NOK/DKK 0,9119 0,898 0,898 0,909 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. september 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 25-09-14 Flügger 1. kvartal 25-09-14 Harboes Bryggeri 1. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 22-09-14 09:00 Danmark Consumer Confidence Indicator Sep -- 10,0 11.4 7.1% 22-09-14 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales MoM/YoY Aug -- 0.1%/ -0.1%/0.4% 0.6%/1.1% 22-09-14 15:00 EMU ECB's Draghi Speaks to EU Parliament 22-09-14 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Aug 5.20M 5.2M 5.15M 5.05M 22-09-14 16:00 EMU Consumer Confidence Sep A -10.5 -- -10.0-11,4 22-09-14 16:05 USA Fed's Dudley, Kocherlakota Speaks 23-09-14 03:45 Kina HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Sep P 50.0 49.5 50.2 50,5 23-09-14 08:45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F -- -- 0.0%/0.1% 0.0%/0.1% 23-09-14 08:45 Frankrig Business Confidence Sep -- -- 91 91 23-09-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep P 50.8 50.0 50.7 51 23-09-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Sep P 53.0 53.0 53.1 52,8 23-09-14 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Sep P 52.5 52 52.5 52,3 23-09-14 10:30 UK PSNB ex Interventions Aug 12.0B -- -- 11.6B 23-09-14 15:00 USA Fed's Bullard, Powell, George speaks 23-09-14 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Jul 0.5% -- 0,3% 0,1% 23-09-14 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep P 58.0 -- 57.9 57,9 23-09-14 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Sep 10 -- 12 14 24-09-14 03:35 Japan Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI Sep P -- -- 52.2 51,7 24-09-14 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Sep -- -- 103.2 101.1 24-09-14 10:00 Norge Unemployment Rate AKU Jul 3.3% -- 3.3% 3.4% 24-09-14 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Sep 105.8 106,0 106.3 104.7 24-09-14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 01-09-19 -- -- 7.9% -4.1% 24-09-14 15:00 Belgien Business Confidence Sep -7,1 -- -7.3-7.2 24-09-14 16:00 USA New Home Sales Aug 430K 430K 412K 504k 24-09-14 18:05 USA Fed's Mester, Evans Speaks 25-09-14 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Aug 1.9% -- 1.8% 2.0% 25-09-14 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales Sep 33 -- 37 31 25-09-14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 20. sep 296K -- 281K(r) 293K 25-09-14 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders, MoM Aug -18,0% -20.0% 22.6% -18.2% 25-09-14 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, MoM Aug 0.5% -- -0.2%(r) 0.6% 25-09-14 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Sep P 59.2 59.5 58.5 25-09-14 15:45 USA Markit US Composite PMI Sep P -- 59.7 58.8 25-09-14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 21. sep -- -- 37.2 35.5 25-09-14 19:20 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks on Economy 26-09-14 01:01 UK Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM/YoY) Sep -- -- 0.1%/5.5% 0.0%/5.0% 26-09-14 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Aug 3.2% -- 3.3% 3.1% 26-09-14 01:30 Japan Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY Sep 2.6% -- 2.7% 2.6% 26-09-14 04:00 Kina Conference Board China August Leading Economic Index 26-09-14 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Oct 8.5 -- 8.6 26-09-14 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Sep 86 -- 86 26-09-14 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 2Q T 4.6% -- 4.2% 26-09-14 15:55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence Sep F 84,8 -- 84.6 Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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