27. maj 2014 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Der kommer en helt stribe af nøgletal fra USA i dag, men stort set ingen fra Europa. Tal for ordreindgangen på varige goder i april ventes at vise et lille fald efter at ordrerne de forrige par måneder har vist en lidt bedre end ventet fremgang. Det er blevet indikeret af ISM s ordreindeks (se figuren). Transport ventes især at trække ned i april, hvorfor kerneordreindgangen (ikke-militære kapitalgoder eksklusiv fly) forventes at vise en lille stigning. Det fastholder indtrykket af at investeringsvæksten generelt vil bedres i 2. kvartal oven på vejrpåvirkningen i 1. kvartal (jf. figur). Der kan også komme lidt fokus på Markit s nyere PMI-indeks for servicesektoren samt den samlede økonomi (composite-indekset). Vi vil dog understrege, at indekset ikke fungerer specielt godt til at forudsige udviklingen i BNP). Dog kan det være værd at holde øje med Service-PMI, idet det har fungeret udmærket til at forudsige udviklingen i det mere anerkendte ISM-serviceindeks de seneste måneder. Vi forventer dog ikke den store ændring i serviceindekset, idet forbrugertilliden ventes at falde en smule yderligere (jf. næste afsnit), men fra et ganske pænt niveau. Sammen med den allerede konstaterede stigning i PMI-fremstillingsindekset i maj, ventes det at trække det samlede PMI-composite indeks en anelse opad i maj. Forbrugertillidsindekset fra Conference Board ventes at vise en lille stigning i maj-indekset, hvilket betyder, at indekset er kørt nogenlunde sidelæns de seneste tre måneder. Det seneste mindre fald skyldtes især en forværring af vurderingen af den aktuelle situation, herunder en forværring af arbejdsmarkedsindekset (jobs plentiful minus jobs hard to get). Vi forventer, at forbrugertilliden bør blive understøttet af fortsatte generelle tegn på bedring i økonomien oven på et svagt 1. kvartal samt på et aktiemarked, der har holdt sig en anelse højere i gennemsnit sammenlignet med april. På den anden side er renterne steget en smule, og Bloombergforbrugertillidsindekset har peget ned. Vi ser derfor risiko for en lille skuffelse, men ikke nok til at ødelægge indtrykket af, at tilliden er inde i en stigende trend. EU-parlamentets ledere mødes i dag og diskuterer udfaldet af valget. Også EU-landenes regeringschefer skal holde møde om udskiftningen på topposterne i EU, herunder ny EU-præsident samt ny kommissionsformand. USA: Ordrer peger på øget investeringsvækst Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De amerikanske markeder holdt lukket i går som følge af Memorial Day, men futures på det amerikanske S&P500-indeks er steget 0,3% siden i fredags, hvor indekset lukkede i et rekordhøjt niveau. De europæiske børser bød på ganske pæne aktiekursstigninger i går, specielt i Sydeuropa, hvor EU-protestpartierne i modsætning til i resten af EU ikke gik frem ved EU-parlamentsvalget. Asien ligger nogenlunde fladt her til morgen. De europæiske statsrenter lukkede i samme niveau som de åbnede i går, men havde udsving i begge retninger over dagen. Valutamarkederne bød ikke på store bevægelser, men EUR dog lidt stærkere over for USD. Euroområdet: Draghi holdt tale i går på en ECB-arrangeret konference i Lissabon. Her advarede han mod en potentiel negativ spiral, hvor lav inflation driver inflationsforventningerne ned, hvilket mindsker kreditgivningen og dæmper inflationen yderligere. Talen kredsede i øvrigt især om kreditgivningen eller mangel på samme i visse sektorer og især i nogle af de sydeuropæiske lande. Draghi nævnte specifikt, at langsigtet finansiering fra ECB vil kunne afhjælpe problemet. Det kan ifølge Draghi både gøres via refinansieringsoperationer (likviditet til de kommercielle banker) og via opkøb af finansielle papirer med bagvedstillet sikkerhed (asset backed securities). Kommentarerne underbygger, at ECB kommer med nye pengepolitiske lempelser på mødet næste torsdag, og det virker sandsynligt, at flere af tiltagene vil være målrettet kreditgivningen. Draghi sætter fokus på inflation og -forventninger For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. maj 2014 Markedskommentarer Aktier CAP (+0,95% / indeks 800,14) endte i positivt territorium på ugens første handelsdag. Handelsaktiviteten var dagen igennem forholdsvis beskeden i takt med, at de finansielle markeder holdt lukket i både USA og Storbritannien. I toppen af indekset endte Jyske Bank (+2,72% / kurs 302,00) fulgte også godt med efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. Pandora (+1,94% / kurs 403,70) efter at have været under pres i fredagens handel i kølvandet på placeringen af 13 mio. aktier svarende til 10% af aktiekapitalen. A.P. Møller-Mærsk (+0,79% / kurs 14.110,00) endte også højere efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte TDC (- 1,31% / kurs 52,60) grundet gevinsthjemtagning i kølvandet på den seneste pæne kursudvikling. Uden for C20-indekset var DFDS (+1,48% / kurs 445,00) blandt andet i fokus efter et nordisk finanshus havde været ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. Derudover var Rockwool (+0,28% / kurs 1.080,00) også i fokus efter et nordisk finanshus var ude og løfte kursmålet på aktien.. Renter Efter weekendens EU-parlamentsvalg faldt obligationsrenterne i EUR-periferilandene ganske pænt, herunder især i Grækenland, Italien, Spanien og Portugal. Det tilskrives blandt andet, at de EU-kritiske og til tider populistiske partier i Italien og Spanien i modsætning til i resten af EU ikke gik frem. Derimod steg de tyske statsrenter fra morgenstunden, men det vendte dog efter at Draghi gik på talerstolen. Han beskrev, hvordan euroområdet risikerer at havne i en negativ spiral med lav inflation, faldende inflationsforventninger og lav kreditvækst. Han kom også med forslag til, hvilke tiltag, ECB vil kunne bruge for at undgå en sådan situation. Sidst på dagen steg renterne igen, hvorved de tyske (og danske) statsrenter sluttede dagen på samme niveau som de begyndte. De amerikanske renter begyndte og sluttede også dagen på samme niveau, men det havde en god forklaring, da markedet var lukket. Valuta EUR handlede på det svageste niveau over for USD i tre måneder i går morges, men EUR styrkedes efter offentliggørelsen af Draghis tale på en ECB-konference i Lissabon. Her talte Draghi ellers om en potential negativ deflationær spiral, og nævnte samtidig flere forskellige pengepolitiske tiltag, som burde kunne holde euroområdets økonomi ude af spiralen. Styrkelsen er fortsat her til morgen. Da både de amerikanske og britiske valutahandlere holdt fri i går, skete bevægelsen dog i et tyndere marked end normalt. JPY blev styrket marginalt over for USD i går, men det er blevet reverseret her til morgen. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring OMXC20CAP 800,1 0,95 USD/JPY 102,0 0,050 USA 2,55 0,01 CRB 308,3 1,64 Stoxx600 343,7 0,56 EUR/USD 1,365 0,003 Euroområdet 1,42 0,00 Brent oil (1M fut) 110,6 0,48 FTSE 6815,8-0,07 USD/DKK 5,468-0,012 Danmark 1,74 0,00 Gold (spot) 1290,0-0,21 S&P500 1900,5 0,42 CHF/DKK 6,110-0,002 Nasdaq 4185,8 0,76 GBP/DKK 9,217-0,010 Hang Seng 22917,5-0,20 SEK/DKK 0,826 0,002 Nikkei 14717,1 0,78 NOK/DKK 0,918-0,001 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0,125 0,125 0,125 0,500 2,55 2,65 3,20 3,50 EUR/USD 1,365 1,38 1,25 1,10 Euroland 0,25 0,25 0,25 0,25 1,42 1,70 1,90 2,00 USD/JPY 102,0 102,0 103,0 105,0 UK 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 2,62 2,85 3,00 3,25 USD/DKK 5,467 5,41 5,96 6,77 Danmark 0,20 0,30 0,30 0,30 1,74 1,80 2,00 2,15 EUR/DKK 7,464 7,46 7,45 7,45 Sverige 0,75 0,75 0,75 1,00 1,85 2,25 2,50 2,75 SEK/DKK 0,8262 0,811 0,847 0,887 Norge 1,50 1,50 1,50 1,25 2,73 2,90 2,90 3,00 NOK/DKK 0,9176 0,899 0,920 0,920 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 27. maj 2014 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber D ato Selskab R egnskab Ingen væsentlige Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 26. - 28. Tyskland Import Price Index MoM Apr -- -- -0.6% 26. - 28. Tyskland Import Price Index YoY Apr -- -- -3.3% 27-05-14 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence May -- -- 85 27-05-14 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Apr -0.7% 0.0% 2.9% 27-05-14 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Apr -0.3% 0.2% 3.5% 27-05-14 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index MoM Mar 0.5% -- 0.6% 27-05-14 15:00 USA House Price Purchase Index QoQ 1Q -- -- 1.20% 27-05-14 15:00 USA S&P/CS 20 City (MoM/YoY) Mar 0.70%/11.85% -- 0.76%/12.86% 27-05-14 15:45 USA Markit US Composite PMI May P -- 56.0 55.6 27-05-14 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI May P -- 55.0 55.0 27-05-14 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index May 83.0 82 82.3 27-05-14 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index May 4,0 -- 7,0 27-05-14 16:30 USA Dallas Fed Manf. Activity May 9.0 -- 11.7 27.-31. Tyskland Retail Sales MoM Apr -0.6%/ -- 0.1%/-1.1% 28-05-14 02:00 Japan Kuroda Speaks at Conference at BOJ 28-05-14 02:10 USA Fed's Lockhart Speaks 28-05-14 07:45 Schweiz GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q 0.5%/2.0% 0.4%/1.8% 0.2%/1.7% 28-05-14 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Jun 8.5 -- 8.5 28-05-14 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Apr -- -- 0.4%/-1.2% 28-05-14 09:00 Danmark GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q P -- 0.5%/1.3% -0.6%/0.5% 28-05-14 09:55 Tyskland Unemployment Rate May 6.6% -- 6.7% 28-05-14 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply YoY Apr 1.2% -- 1.1% 28-05-14 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence May 101.9 101.5 102.0 28-05-14 12:00 UK CBI Reported Sales May 35 -- 30 28-05-14 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications May 23 -- -- 0.9% 28-05-14 Brasilien Policy meeting (selic rate) 11.0% -- 11.0% 29-05-14 01:50 Japan Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr -11.6%/(-3.2% -- 6.3%/11.0% 29-05-14 14:30 USA GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q S -0.6% -0.5% 0.1% 29-05-14 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims May 24 320K -- 326K 29-05-14 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort May 25 -- -- 34.1 29-05-14 16:00 USA Pending Home Sales (MoM/YoY) Apr 1.0% 1.5% 3.4%/-7.4% 30-05-14 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence May -100,0% -- -3,0 30-05-14 01:30 Japan Jobless Rate Apr 3.6% -- 3.6% 30-05-14 01:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food YoY Apr 3.1% -- 1.3% 30-05-14 01:30 Japan Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food YoY May 2.9% -- 2.7% 30-05-14 01:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Apr P -2.0%/4.6% -- 0.7%/7.4% 30-05-14 03:30 USA Fed's George Speaks at Stanford 30-05-14 09:00 Schweiz KOF Leading Indicator May 102.50 101 102.04 30-05-14 09:30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 1Q -- 0.3%/2.8% 1.7%/3.1% 30-05-14 14:30 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Apr 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 30-05-14 14:30 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Apr 0.2%/1.4% -- 0.2%/1.2% 30-05-14 15:45 USA Chicago Purchasing Manager May 60.0 -- 63.0 30-05-14 15:55 USA Univ. of Michigan Confidence May F 82.8 -- 81.8 30-05-14 20:00 USA Fed's Lacker, Wiiliams, Plosser Speaks Analytikere: Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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