Aktørarbejdsgruppemøde. 3. februar 2016, Energinet.dk

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1 Aktørarbejdsgruppemøde 3. februar 2016, Energinet.dk 1

2 Dagsorden 1. Generel velkomst og præsentation 2. Status Nye Systemydelsesprodukter Pilotprojekt for nye teknologier på systemydelsesmarkedet Skagerrak 4 evaluering Indkøb af systembærende egenskaber 3. Information fra Kontrolcenteret 4. Finer time resolution 5. Frokost 6. Effektubalanceafregning 7. Opfølgning på systemydelsesstrategi og markedsmodel 2.0 hvor er vi? 8. Eventuelt 2

4 Nye Systemydelsesprodukter Analyse Omkostningsanalyse Behovsanalyse Bruttoliste med produkter Deadline: Ultimo februar Workshop Aktørworkshop Diskussion af produkter og markedsmuligheder Dato: Marts/april Næste skridt Juridisk analyse Anbefalinger om tilvejebringelsesformer Metodegodkendelse Opfølgning 4

6 Pilotprojekt for nye teknologier på systemydelsesmarkedet Online måling Statistiske metoder Test Elbiler Varmepumper Batterier Aggregator rolle Måling af forbrug Nye forskrifter og markedsrammer 6

8 Skagerrak 4 evaluering Foreløbige evaluering har været i høring i December Der er kommet 4 høringssvar. Den endelige evalueringen er sendt til Energitilsynet 1. februar

10 Indkøb af systembærende egenskaber Workshop afholdes den 23. februar Sommerudbud primo april Udbud gennemført ultimo april Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.-> Behov 2020 Workshop Behov DK1 ca. tidsestimat Aktivering og ejerskab Workshop Workshop Evt. metodegodkendelsesproces Udbudsbetingelser og statsstøtteregler Workshop Workshop Høring Metodegodkendelsesproces Sommer udbud Workshop Udbudsbetingelser offentliggøres Udbud afsluttes 10

13 Nordic Finer Time Resolution February 2 nd, 2016

14 Agenda Requirements from the network code on Electricity Balancing (NC EB) Finer time resolution in a Nordic context Overview of the Nordic finer time resolution project Feasibility study and implementation concepts (ICs) Evaluation methodology Implementation concepts Input from stakeholders

15 ENTSO-E Network Code on Electricity Balancing (NCEB) The NC EB s objectives Balancing markets should ensure that demand and supply remain in continuous balance at the lowest possible cost to customers. Aim to move Europe from the current national focus on balancing to a situation where larger markets allow resources to be shared across Europe Promote greater integration, coordination and harmonization of electricity balancing rules in order to make it easier to trade resources. Source:

16 ENTSO-E Network Code on Electricity Balancing (NCEB) The NC EB requires a harmonization of the imbalance settlement period (ISP) across Europe ACER has recommended to harmonize the ISP at 15 minutes ENTSO-e is performing a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to assess ACERs recommendation Preliminary results expected in March 2016 Source:

17 Current Imbalance Settlement Periods (ISP) in Europe Note: Harmonization on 60 min is not an option Source: ENTSO-E WGAS, Survey on Ancillary services procurement, Balancing market design 2014, Jan 2015

18 Finer time resolution in a Nordic context More intermittent, and less predictable, power infeed into the system More HVDC interconnections, leading to potential larger hourly changes in exchange volumes with other synchronous areas

19 Background - relationship between imbalances and market time resolution imbalances that occur because the BRPs do not follow their plans Example of a production plan where the imbalances are "invisible" if hourly resolution in the settlement is applied

20 Background - relationship between imbalances and market time resolution So-called "planned intra hour imbalances". These imbalances are a result of the market design and happen even if all BRPs follow their plans Illustration of how production changes in quarterly steps reduce the imbalances (blue area)

21 Nordic Finer Time Resolution Project Finer time resolution consist of: 15 min time resolution in the imbalance settlement between TSO and BRP 15 min settlement for both production and consumption 15 min market time resolution (at least one option for market players to trade themselves into balance) Two dimensions, captured in a so-called Implementation Concept (IC): Implemented solution, consisting of several conceptual building blocks Implementation process, being the implementation timeline of the conceptual building blocks

22 Approach Feasibility Study CBA Develop alternative ICs MCA CBA ICs Most promising ICs IC: Implementation Concept MCA: Multi-Criteria Analysis CBA: Cost-Benefit Analysis

23 Project organisation Steering committee (MSG) Project management group Market work stream Technical work stream IT work stream

24 Planning

25 MCA: Multi-Criteria Analysis Criterion unit IC1 IC2 IC3 One off costs Criterion IC1 IC2 IC3 One off costs Market liq / /+ Market liq. ++/ Normalization of the ratings (0..1) Rating Normalized rating Different weighting factors can provide an indication of the sensitivity of the outcome Criterion One off costs Weighting Factor 1 IC1 IC2 IC Market liq Criterion One off costs Weighting Factor 2 IC1 IC2 IC Market liq Score 1 Score 2

26 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) Criterion One off costs Weighting Factor 1 IC1 IC2 IC Market liq Score 1

27 Explanation of the building blocks 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) The existing ID Hybrid ID 15-min DA Additional Market 15-minute DA Interpretation of NC EB compliance by introducing both 15-minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement and 15-minute TSO-BRP settlement for both production and consumption. 15-minute RPM market on the energy trading, not on the capacity trading. The current ID market but with continuous trading of 15-minute products, using DA market spot price as reference for imbalance price settlement. The Hybrid ID provides, next to the continuous trading, an auction mechanism (or other price-setting mechanism). The ID market price can be used for the imbalance settlement price. The 15-minute additional DA block is based on the successful experience in Germany, and provides the possibility to set the imbalance price based on the 15-minute additional DA price. The 15-minute DA block is the current DA market with 15 min products and provides the possibility to set the imbalance price based on the 15-minute DA price. Higher resolution production plans (e.g. 5 mins) Both IC add-ons are functionalities that can be evaluated independently from the other ICs, and be combined with the ICs 15-minute end-consumer metering

28 Minimum implementation ICs IC #1 IC #2 IC #3 The light blue and grey blocks appear in each IC. Nevertheless, they are shown separately in order to indicate that the implementation timelines are independent from one another in the sense that an implementation delay of the grey block will not impact go-live of the light blue block. The existing ID, 15-min DA Additional Market and Hybrid ID blocks comply with the NC EB requirement that market participants must have minimum one option to trade themselves into balance.

29 ICs with expanded functionality IC #4 IC #7 IC #10 IC #5 IC #8 IC #11 IC #6 IC #9 IC #12

30 IC #1 The existing ID 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) (July): Working assumption timeline

31 IC #2 15-min DA Additional Market 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) (July): Working assumption timeline

32 IC #3 Hybrid ID 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) (July): Working assumption timeline

33 IC #4 The existing ID 15-minute DA 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) (July): Working assumption Common EU decision timeline

34 IC #5 15-min DA Additional Market 15-minute DA 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) (July): Working assumption Common EU decision timeline

35 IC #6 Hybrid ID 15-minute DA 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) (July): Working assumption Common EU decision timeline

36 IC #7 The existing ID Hybrid ID 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) 2019 (July): Working assumption timeline

37 IC #8 15-min DA Additional Market Hybrid ID 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) 2019 (July): Working assumption timeline

38 IC #9 The existing ID Hybrid ID 15-minute DA 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) 2019 (July): Working assumption Common EU decision timeline

39 IC #10 15-min DA Additional Market Hybrid ID 15-minute DA 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) 2019 (July): Working assumption Common EU decision timeline

40 IC #11 The existing ID 15-min DA Additional Market 15-minute DA 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) Hybrid ID 2019 (July): Working assumption Common EU decision timeline

41 IC #12 15-min DA Additional Market 15-minute DA 15 minute ISP between TSO-TSO settlement 15 minute ISP between TSO-BRP settlement in both production and consumption 15 minute market time resolution in RPM (energy market only) Hybrid ID 2019 (July): Working assumption Common EU decision timeline

42 IC add-on 1 15-minute end-consumer metering 15-minute end-consumer metering add-on 15 min end-consumer metering only comes into play when 15-minute metering has been rolled out in the Nordic countries As such, the implementation is rather far away on the timeline, which brings a lot of uncertainties, compared to other IC blocks

43 IC add-on 2 Higher resolution production plans (e.g. 5 mins) Higher resolution production plans add-on The add-on brings pure operational benefits for TSOs at potential additional costs for the producers. The IC add-on can be evaluated individually, independent from other IC blocks.

44 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) Criterion Weighting Factor 1 Score 1 IC1 IC2 IC3 One off costs Market liquidity ICs

45 Criteria to evaluate the different ICs TSO Incentive structure Operational security Integration of markets BRP TSO + BRP IC Integration of new technologies and RES Facilitation of trade and market liquidity Costs

46 TSO-only criteria Change in need of reserve volume Operation of new and existing HVDC links Impact on TSO processes Activation of FCR (frequency quality) Activation of FRR (afrr and mfrr) Technical feasibility (in relation to the implementation time line) Facilitation of new RES infeed (Operation of new unregulated RES) Facilitation of cross-border trade e.g. DA and ID with Germany Possibility for CoBA-CoBA agreements outside Nordic area Increased use of interconnector capacity Continuous ramping Flipping of direction of HVDC links from quarter to quarter

47 BRP-only criteria Provision of correct price signals/incentives to be balanced (Incentives to trade on a quarterly basis) Risk of adverse pricing (i.e. higher ID price than anticipated balancing price)

48 TSO and BRP criteria Facilitation of new RES infeed Facilitation of more demand side response One off costs (IT tools, measurement system, training staff, resources) Ongoing costs (daily operation) Implementation risk Possibility for market participants to balance their portfolio efficiently before the operational quarter Attractiveness of the new 15 min organized market trading opportunity Market liquidity: RPM, ID, DA, New market (Hybrid ID and additional DA auction)

49 Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) Criterion Weighting Factor 1 Score 1 IC1 IC2 IC3 On off cost /+ ++ Criteria and weighting factors Market liquidity /+ ICs

50 Stakeholder involvement

51 Stakeholder involvement We would like to take your view(s) into account Four national stakeholder meetings are organized by the Nordic TSOs in Feb 2016 We developed a questionnaire to structure the feedback

52 Questionnaire We kindly ask you to provide your feedback before February 29th Please note that input received after that date cannot be taken into account The results of the questionnaire will be shared with you

53 Contact details Svenska Kraftnät Anna Guldbrand Fingrid Vesa Vänskä Statnett Geir Kåsa Energinet.dk Jane Gregersen

56 Effektubalanceafregning Aktørarbejdsgruppen for systemydelser JKL 56

57 Baggrund Som resultat af MM2, er det bestemt at genoverveje design af effektubalanceafregningen Identificerede ønsker til det nye design Transparente, gennemskuelige, og ens regler Mindske incitament til porteføljeoptimering Klart prissignal, der fremmer markedsbaseret adfærd Designet er afhængig af udviklingen i andre projekter Kvartersmarkeder afrr marked.. afrr marked Finere tidsopløsning Prissignal og incitamenter Effektubalanceafregning Formål og incitamenter 57

58 Proces 1. Nedsættelse af arbejdsgruppe og fælles analyse 2. Fælles diskussion i aktørarbejdsgruppen for systemydelser og intern ENDK diskussion 3. Godkendelsesproces 4. Implementeringsfase Nedsættelse af arbejdsgruppe Ca. juni Ca. august Analyse Diskussion Godkendelsesproces 58

59 Lektie Hvem vil være med i arbejdsgruppen? Send mail til JKL senest fredag d. 12 februar Arbejdsgruppens opgaver Beskrive formålet med effektubalanceafregningen og identificere uhensigtsmæssigheder ved den nuværende model Udarbejde forslag til en forbedret model, der skal fungere som oplæg til diskussion i aktørarbejdsgruppen for systemydelser 59

61 Energinet.dk s strategi 61

62 Neas Energy A/S Systemydelsesstrategien Energinet onsdag den 3. februar

63 Investeringsklima? Hvad gør de decentrale producenter. Der laves ikke investeringer i systemydelser Det er for usikkert Kan ændres for hurtigt Der investeres kun på varmesiden Solvarme Bio brændsel Varmepumper Optimering af virkningsgrader

64 Udfordringer Bibeholde anlæg nok efter 2018 Hvad sker der når grundbeløbet forsvinder Hvor mange anlæg vil forsvinde Kan de decentrale konkurrer på spotprisen alene Markedet bliver mindre og ikke større som lovet Pres fra SK4 Lukket mod Tyskland

65 Evaluering af Energinet.dks strategi for systemydelser 3. februar 2016 DONG Energy Thermal Power JESSM

66 Forsyningssikkerhed i El systemet består af en række elementer der alle skal være til stede. 66

67 Sundere investeringsklima Uddybende kommentarer Hvor er der økonomi? Hvad har vi oplevet? Hvordan på virker det os som aktør? Størrelse på markedet Priser på produkter Danske konkurrencefordel fx ved kombination med varme Termisk kraft har en række gode egenskaber Lukning af FRR-A DK1 Reduktion af FRC DK1 Ingen nye eksportmuligheder fx PR til Tyskland Fortsat ingen plan for hvornår der kommer nye produkter fra MM 2.0 Annullering af udbud på Strategiske reserver Nyt marked for Leveringsevne hvor prisen som forventet går mod nul. Ny Kan ikke argumenter for ekstra omkostninger ved nybyg/ombyg/renovering Nye enheder bliver modtryk- mindre fleksibilitet Det vi er sikre på at sælge i morgen, næste år og om 10 år tør vi invester i: Varme Vindmøller pga. 10 års fast pris FDR+FNR i DK2 Konklusion Der skal fokus på initiativer der flytter omsætningsmuligheder til danske aktører- Prioriter ud fra en ease and effect Hvor der kan skaffes størst omsætning for markedsaktører med mindst mulig indsats 67

68 Hvilke initiativer i systemydelsesstrategien ser I størst udfordring for ENDK i at opfylde og hvorfor? 68

69 Hvad skal Energinet.dk gøre Troværdi tidsplan Overholde milepæle Korrigerende handlinger Genopbygge markedstillid 69

70 Back up 70

71 Fra Energinet.dks strategi Internationalisering: udenlandske aktører i Danmark VS, danske aktørers muligheder i udlandet Konkurrence: efterspørgsel som reduceres. Transparens: månedsrapport. Fremskridt på MM2.0? 71

72 Fra Energinet.dks strategi 72

73 Evaluering af ENDKs systemydelsesstrategi

74 Hvilke initiativer i systemydelsesstrategien ser I størst udfordring for ENDK i at opfylde og hvorfor? Strategi 2011 Fællesmarked for FNR/FDR med Sverige Kobling af primærreserve mod Tyskland Udligning af modsatrettede ubalancer, FRR-A Fælles nordisk FRR-A aktiveringsmarked FRR-A aktiveringsmarked med Tyskland Internationalt marked for regulerkraft med Tyskland Reservation af spotkapacitet for at dele manuelle reserver inden for DK Indbygning af systembærende egenskaber i nettet (*) Løbende aktørinddragelse Konklusion: Strategien fra 2011 er kun i meget begrænset omfang realiseret Konklusion: De elementer som er realiseret er primært I ENDKs interesse

75 Hvordan har systemydelsesstrategien bidraget til et sundere investeringsklima? Oplever at gode hensigter bliver ikke til resultater eller går for langsomt Ser ikke klar sammenhæng mellem strategi og leverede resultater Investeringsklimaet forbedres ikke ved at gøre strategien mindre ambitiøs Transparens omkring tidsplaner, tidsfrister, handlinger I tager Hvordan er det gået med systemydelsesmarkederne siden 2015? FCR DK1 Halveret FCR DK2 BaU FRR-A DK1 Lukket LEK FRR-A DK2 Lukket Manuelle reserver DK1/DK2 Bau Strategiske reserver Annulleret

76 To spørgsmål fra os til jer Hvad forstår ENDK ved et godt investeringsklima? Stiller EU en umulig opgave? EU en umulig opgave? Vi skal lave internationale balancemarkeder, men det er i praksis ikke muligt pga. nationale særhensyn? Bliver det perfekte det godes værste fjende?

77 Tiltag i systemydelsesstrategien (1/2) Princip Tiltag Andre TSO er Regulatorisk usikkerhed Kobling til øvrige projekter Styrke internationale samarbejdsrelationer X Fælles marked for FCR med DE, NL, CH og AT X X Internationalisering FCR over DC forbindelse (erfaring fra SK4) Nordisk marked for afrr kapacitet og aktivering X X X afrr assistance mod Tyskland X Samhandel regulerkraft mellem Norden og Tyskland X X (x) 77

78 Tiltag i systemydelsesstrategien (2/2) Princip Tiltag Andre TSO er Regulatorisk usikkherhed Kobling til øvrige projekter Kontinuert markedsbaseret indkøb af systembærende egenskaber X Konkurrence* Værdisætning af nye ydelser og egenskaber X Fjerne barrierer for nye leverandører (x) Transparens Dokumentation af interne ENDK procedurer Forbedret markedstransparens *Også initiativer i MM2.0 78

79 Tiltag i Markedsmodel 2.0 Princip Tiltag Andre TSO er Regulatorisk usikkerhed Kobling til øvrige projekter Fleksibilitet Revurdering af krav om balance for driftsdøgnet X Tilpasning af effektubalanceafregningen mv. (special regulering, 1-prismodel) X X Analyse af veje til at åbne for handel tættere på driftsdøgnet, inkl. Udarbejdelse af position paper X (x) 3. Partsaggregatorer (standardaftaler og brug af DataHub)** Fjerne barrierer for nye leverandører (x) Funktion alitet Markedsbaseret indkøb af systembærende egenskaber X Værdisætning af nye ydelser og egenskaber x ** Samarbejde med Dansk Energi 79

80 The Danish (and Nordic) balancing markets Primary reserves (FCR) Secondary reserves (FRR-A) and imbalance netting Manual reserves (FRR-M) Ready to participate in common procurement with continent Nordic Synchronous area - DK2 and SE market, 700 MW - Daily auction with pay as bid DK1 part of continental synchronous area - 23 MW demand and 10 MW on long term contract from Norway - 13 MW from daily auction with marginal pricing DK1 supplied on long term contract from Norway MW reservation on HVDC link DK1 part of contintal imbalance netting cooperation, IGCC FRR-A market for Nordic synchronous area expected to be implemented 2016/2017 Nordic Regulating Power market - Marginal pricing and hourly bids - National capacity reservation and voluntary bids Exchange through special regulation conditions 80