Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

Transkript

1 >mmission of the European Communities ommissionen for De europceiske Fcellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske situation i Fcellesskabet Publication mensuelle

2 This publication appears monthly (except August and September, which are combined in a double number). Denne publikation udkommer manedligt (bortset fra et dobbeltnummer i perioden augustseptember) The Graphs and Notes of Group A appear in eery issue and deal with: A1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The others (Groups B, C and D) appear quarterly as follows: Diagrammer og bemrerkninger til gruppe A: A1 A2 A3 A4 lndustriproduktion Antal arbejdsl0se Forbrugerpriser Handelsbalance offentligg0res i hert nummer, medens grupperne B, C og D findes i f0lgende udgaer: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober B1 B2 B3 B4 BS Exports Trade between member countries Discount rate and callmoney rates Shortterm lending to business and priate customers Exchange rates B1 B2 B3 B4 BS Eksport Handel mellem medlemslandene Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente Kortfristede kreditter til irksomheder og priatpersoner Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 mports C2 Terms of trade C3 Wholesale prices C4 Retail sales cs Wages C1 mport C2 Bytteforhold C3 Engrospriser C4 Detailomsretning cs L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D2 Dwellings authorized D3 Tax reenue 04 Share prices 05 Longterm interest rates 01 Produktion i metalindustri 02 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Skatteindtregter D4 Aktieku rser DS Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser Frellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends 200, rue de la Loi, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F JELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling 200, rue de la Loi., 1049 Bruxelles

4 NVESTMENT OUTLOOK N THE COMMUNTY. The results of the inestment sureys carried out in the Community in March and April show that managements in all member countries except taly hae reduced their planned inestment expenditure (in alue terms) for n Germany, managements now expect to inest 1% less for the current year than last year, haing planned last August for an increase of 6%. n the United Kingdom, the increase expected for 1975 is 5% as against 9% at the time of the preious surey (in 1974 inestment expenditure had been stepped up by 33%). n France, the increase expected for 1975 is 11% compared with actual growth of 13% in By contrast, the propensity to inest seems to be gaining strength in taly; industrialists who last August foresaw an increase of 6% for 1975 hae since reiewed their inestment schedules and now expect a growth of 14% as against an actual expansion of 12% in n Belgium the replies show that the increase of 46% achieed in 1974 will gie way this year to a drop of 14%, while in Luxemburg conersely the fall of 12;;; last year should be followed by an increase of 8% in n general, optimism is greatest in the metal industries and, except for Germany, in the basic materials industries; the most guarded replies hae been coming from the processing industries and the foodstuffs industry. Brussels, 30 June NVESTERNGSUDSGTER FA:LLESSKABET f0lge resultaterne af inesteringsrundsp0rgerne i Frellesskabet i marts og april har industriirksomhederne i alle medlemsstater bortset fra tali en reideret deres planlagte inesteringsudgifter for i nedadgaende retning. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland regner irksomhedslederne nu med en nedgang i deres inesteringsudgifter pa 1% for indererende ar, efter at de sidste efterar hade paregnet en stigning pa 6% i Det forenede Kongerige andrager den for 197 S im0desete stigning 5% i forhold til 9% pa tidspunktet for foregaende rundsp0rge, sammenholdt med en stigning pa 33% i Frankrig andrager den forentede stigning i % i forhold til en faktisk stigning pa 13% i Derimod synes inesteringstilb0jeligheden i talien at forstrerkes; irksomhedslederne, der sidste efterar forudsa en stigning pa 6% i 197 5, har i mellemtiden reideret deres inesteringsplaner i opadgaende retning og regner nu med en for0gelse pa 14% i forhold til en faktisk ekspansion pa 12% i Belgien afl0ses forrige ars stigning pa 46% af en tilbagegang pa 14% dette ar, horimod der i Luxembourg il blie tale om en stigning pa 8% i 1975 efter sidste ars tilbagegang pa 12%. almindelighed er optimismen st0rst i metalindustrien og, bortset fra Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, i raareindustrien, medens irksomhedslederne i forarbejdningsindustrien og i lenedsmiddelindustrien iser st0rst tilbageholdenhed. Bruxelles, d. 30 juni 1975.

5 At NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 19 = 100 Unadjusted 150 CE EG EC lkke scesonkorrigerede tal 150 Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal CE EG EC ,: :.:....,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ellell ltl e M A M A 0 N D M A M A 0 N 0 The poor performance of exports, slack final domestic demand and the continuing reduction of stocks hae been reflected, for the Community as a whole, in a sluggish trend in industrial production. The seasonally adjusted index of the SOEC shows an actual decline in production between March and April, when it was running more than 9o below the same month of t is in Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom that production has fallen most sharply. n France, on the other hand, production has been steady, and in taly the marked downswing in March gae way in April to an upward moement. t must be assumed that the present transitional phase in the Communitys economic deelopment will not come to an end in the near future. ndeed, according to the EEC business sureys faourable assessments of production expectations, which were definitely on the increase in all the countries participating in the surey, are now showing a tendency to slow down a little; replies relating to orders hae also remained predominantly pessimistic. Den sage udf0rsel, drempede indenlandske eftersp0rgsel og edarende formindskelse aflagrene afspejles for Frellesskabet som helhed fortsat i en t0ende udikling af industriproduktionen. lf0lge det sresonkorrigerede indeks fra SKEF er produktionen en dog faldet i april, hor den h\ mere end 9 o under nieauet et ar tidligere. Tilbagegangen ar tydeligst i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, i Nederlandene og i Det forenede Kongerige. Derimod stagnerede produktionen i Frankrig, og i talien er den abenbare produktionsnedgang i marts eget for en mere positi udikling. Det rna formodes, at oergangsfasen i Frellesskabet som helhed il are ed i endnu nogen tid. Uanset bed0mmelsen af produktionsudsigterne if0lge E0Fs konjunkturrundsp0rger i h0jere grad. er positie i alle de lande, der omfattes af rundsp0rgerne, er tendensen for tiden noget tilbageholdende og urderingen af ordrebeholdningerne er fortsat hoedsageligt pessimistisk.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A Adjusted indices 19 = 100 Scesonkorrigerede tal 200 r,,=o..rrrr==.,...r.=...,..,r J 1 f Danmark ltalia Belgique Belgie Luxembourg United Kingdom _ l r4+r rr L Adjusted indices 1 CE EG EC 160 r BR Deutschland reland France Nederland Scesonkorrigerede tal 100.,..._ "",...._ 1., 1 """ J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAM J JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (thousands) (i tusinde) J r... _, = L (..,. 7, "",_ , _,..==...,,..,,.,. _,..,,...""".J" r..? <..,", " , Dan mark BR Deutschland _France ltalia reland Nederland Belgique Belg1e nit Kigd m. _ "".., "... l l 1 1 l l l l l l 1 J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N DJ FM AM J J AS 0 N D 1 Just as in April, the labour market situation in the Community in May showed no signs of any improement. Seasonally adjusted unemployment continued to rise in all Community countries except reland, where it has tended to stabilize in recent months. n May it totalled some 4.5 million in the Community as a whole, an increase of 50o compared with May last year. Shorttime working also tended to rise further in most member countries. The seasonally adjusted number of unfilled acancies reflects a continuing decline in industrys demand for labour; the downward tendency is most marked in Belgium, but is also ery clear in France and Germany. Beskreftigelsessituationen i Frelles kabet i te i maj mgen tegn pa mrerkbar bedring. Det sresonkorrigerede arbejds 10shedstal steg igen i aile Frellesskabets medlemsstater bortset fra lrland, hor en tendens til stabilisering har ist sig i de sidste nineder. Sammenlagt androg det sresonkorrigerede tal i maj ca. 4,5 millioner arbejdsl0se, hilket betyder en stigning pa 50 o i sammenligning ned aret f0r. Den partielle arbejdsl0shed er bleet stadig mere udprreget i de fleste medlemsstater. 0rigt mber de sresonkorrigerede tal for ubesatte pladser en edarende tilbagegang i irksomhedernes beho for arbejdskraft. Denne tendens er srerlig udprreget i Belgien og ligeledes meget tydelig i Frankrig og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland.

8 CONSUMER PRCES FORBRUGERPRSER A BR Deutschland France ltolia BelgiqueBelgie Luxembourg 19 = i""" % :::::::::,....,..,, V.,.., _? _,..,. _,.. """ ) Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % 1l i L...f1 0, t, + 3,0 Denmark reland Nederland United Kingdom ,..,.. % = k:::= :::::: ; _,..""" _,.,." _.,..., _,. _,.. l;..... """ " l l 1 l 1 J l J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N D D M A M n May the upsurge of consumer prices in the Community as a whole continued at a rapid pace, following an appreciable acceleration in the preceding weeks. n the United Kingdom the monthly increase, at 4%, was once again ery high; much of this was due to increases in a number of excise duties and indirect taxes, particularly the decision to ley the highest rate (25%) of alue added tax on certain less essential goods, such as domestic electrical appliances, furs and jewellery. n Denmark the sharp acceleration in the rate of increase in May is attributable mainly to higher rents, which are normally reiewed only twice a year. n other Community countries, by contrast, the upward moement slackened despite the shrp rise in the price of food, particularly of agricultural products, owing to the fairly poor spring crops. n Belgium, where a price freeze was imposed at the beginning of May, price leels reflect the impact of increases authorized earlier. The Belgian goernment intends to continue these measures in a selectie way. Forbrugsprisernes stigning i Frellesskabet som helhed er fort at i hurtigt tempo i maj efter de seneste ugers mrerkbare fomgelse af prisstigningstempoet. Det forende Kongerige, hor prisforh0jelserne med en manedlig stigning pa 4% igen ar meget store, spillede forh0jelsen af isse afgifter og indirekte skatter en resentlig rolle nanlig det forhold, at isse mindre igtige arer, som f. eks. elektriske husholdningsartikler, pelsarer og smykker kom ind under merrerdiafgiftens oojeste sats. Danmark skyldes maj maneds bratte fomgelse af stigningstempoet srerlig den halarlige indregning af huslejerne. de andre ande i Frellesskabet srekkedes stigningen derimod til trods for den strerke fordyrelse af lenedsmidler og isrer af sresonbetonede landbrugsprodukter, for hilke h0sten ar temmelig darlig dette forar. Belgien, hor, der fra begyndelsen af maj har reret indf0rt prisstop, pairkes prisnieauet af forh0jelser, der allerede tidligere er bleet godkendt. Disse foranstaltninger patrenker den belgiske regering at ideref0re i selektit omfang.

9 1... A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur r Danmark BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL ,.,...,_.. _ =. J,. \.. \ A V \, g!00"" ;C.. V... r r\. J:lllll"" "" \. ". \ )if r,,... """. \ \ \, f " \ \, \ \ \ " \ r (\ J 1600 CE EG EC France 10 rlreland l ltalia United Kingdom 2000 \\ " \, 1 j i11j11 J F M AM J J AS 0 H 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 H OJ F M AM J J AS 0 H 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 H D _\ Most of the striking reduction in the Communitys trade deficit since last summer has occurred in trade with the oilproducing countries and the other deeloping countries. The olume of oil imports into the Community has fallen appreciably, probably mainly due to the recession in economic actiity but no doubt also influenced by reactions to the high leel of prices and by faourable weather conditions. Exports from the Community, particularly from taly and the United Kingdom, to the oilproducing countries continued to increase at a ery brisk pace. The weakness of economic actiity in the Community has also led to a decline in raw material imports from nonoilproducing deeloping countries, and falling commodity prices hae also reduced the alue of these imports. The balance of trade with this group of countries has therefore improed in faour of the Community. The largest share in the improement in the Communitys balance of trade is accounted for by the three countries which had the largest deficits France, taly and the United Kingdom. The trade deficits of Denmark and reland, howeer, hae shown little further improement during Germanys balance of trade surplus fell in April, but rose again in May as a result of a sharp decline in imports. The balance of trade of the Benelux countries has improed so far this year. Den resentlige reduktion af Frellesskabets handelsunderskud siden forrige sommer skyldes hoedsagelig samhandelen med de olieproducerende ande og de 0rige udiklingslande. Omfanget af olieimporten i Frellesskabet er mrengdemressigt faldet tydeligt, sandsynligis hoedsagelig som f0ge af nedgangen i den 0konomiske aktiitet og formodentlig ikke som reaktion pa det h0je prisnieau og det gunstige ejrlig. Frellesskabets udf0rsel srerlig fra talien og Det forenede Kongerige til de olieproducerende ande steg igen hurtigt. Den beskedne eftersp0rgsel i Frellesskabet har ligeledes medf0rt en nedgang i indf0rslen af rastoffer fra ikkeolieproducerende udiklingslande samtidig med at faldende rastofpriser yderligere har mindkset indf0rselsrerdien. Handelsbalancen oer for disse ande har f0lgelig udiklet sig i Frellesskabets fa0r. De resentligste bidrag til forbedringen skyldes tre ande, der har de st0rste underskud Frankrig, talien og Det forenede Kongerige; his balancer har undergaet en forbedring ide seneste maneder. Derimod synes forbedringen af Danmarks og rlands handelsunderskud at rere aftaget i arets l0b. Forbundsrepublikken Tysklands handelsoerskud mindskedes atter i april, men fomgedes igen i maj som f0lge af en strerk tilbagegang i indf0rslen. Beneluxlandenes handelsbalance er styrket siden arets begyndelse.

10 OUTPUT N THE METAL PRODUCTS NDUSTRES PRODUKTON METALNDUSTR Dl 19 = Danmark 160 t France Belgique Belgie Luxembourg United Kingdom t 100, , ;:.::::_..." ,... r..... i""..:: t ()0 t Dts cl;nd reland ltalia Nederland 1 _., ",,_, "..,..., , 1" 60 L l J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASDNDJ FMAMJ J ASOND n the Community as a whole, output in the metal products industries fell slightly in early spring. The decline was particularly pronounced at the primary processing stage and stems from the efforts of firms to run down their stocks, efforts which hae contributed to the worldwide collapse of the steel market. The other sectors are also hit by the fall in demand. n the first four months of 1975, output of passenger cars and commercial ehicles, for example, was some 17% down on a year earlier, een though output in the first half of 1974 had already contracted in the wake of the oil crisis. The recoery eident in some member countries, especially in Germany, has been rather hesitant and merely halted the downturn in the market. Een the industrial machinery sector, which until now has held up well because its products take a long time to manufacture, is beginning to feel the fall in demand; building machinery is especially hard hit. On the other hand, the rate of inflow of new orders for equipment for the oil industry and for nuclear power stations has remained brisk. Produktionen i den metalforarbejdende industri er gaet lidt tilbage f0rst pa aret. Udiklingen ar srerlig udprreget pa f0rste forarbejdningstrin og hrenger sammen med den af irksomhederne tilstrrebte nedsrettelse af lagerbeholdningerne, hilket har bidraget til stalmarkedets erdensomsprendende sammenbrud. Saledes Jigger produktionen af person og areogne i arets f0rste fire maneder ca. 17 % under det tilsarende tal aret f0r, sel om produktionen i f0rste halar af 1974 allerede ar pairket af oliekrisens f0lger. Den bedring, der iste sig i nogle medlemsstater srerlig i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland ar temmelig usikker og har kun bremset nedgangen. Ogsa maskinindustrien, der hidtil hredede sig pa grund af lange fremstillingstider, begynder at mrerke faldet i eftersp0rgslen; srerlig industrien for bygge og anlregsmateriel er ramt. Derimod er ordreindgangen for materiel til olieindustrien og til atomkraftrerker stadig lilig.

11 02 DWELLNGS AUTHORZED (thousands) BOLGER HVORTL DER ER GVET BYGGETLLADELSER (i tusind) ,2 1 B.R. Deutschland 1 France ltal ia Nederland Belgique Belgie 100 f reland (,,..J 1\... \ J V r \ ( J,, ) A ),)A ( V " r\ V:,.. y \(.., \ \( \J \ 1\ r \ " \ \ ; y 1 1" l1\_.} \j J A J\ 1". """... \.\ \; \ i\ l la [\._) \ \ J f \ f, \ l\1., \ "" \1, 1\ 3 2 J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND The building industry in the Community as a whole is in a downward phase. n certain countries or regions the cyclical decline is being aggraated by structural factors, especially by the excess supply of certain types of building and by the unusual rise in building costs. Most member countries hae taken support measures, such as reducing mortgage rates, expanding credit facilities and increasing the budget funds spent on construction work ; the Dutch goernment has introduced a new Fl 1,000 million programme to reie building actiity. But official action seems to hae had no effect on the leel of actiity, so that there is eidence of extensie spare capacity een in publicsector building. n addition, the flagging propensity to inest of enterprises is continuing to influence industrial and commercial building programmes. Residential construction in particular is also suffering from spare capacity. Building starts hae continued to fall eerywhere in the Community and the number of new building rmits is also declining sharply, especially in Germany and the Benelux countries. Byggeindustrien genneml0ber i Frellesskabet som helhed en nedgangsperiode. isse ande eller omrader forstrerkes den konjunkturelle srekkelse af strukturmressige faktorer, isrer af det alt for store udbud af bestemte boligtyper og af den ekstraordinrere stigning i byggeomkostningerne. Der trreffes ganske ist st0tteforanstaltninger i de fleste medlemsstater : srenkning af renten for lfm i fast ejendom, udidelse af kreditmulighederne, forh0jelse af beillingerne fra de offentlige budgetter til byggeriet. Den nederlandske regering har sajedes irerksat nye foranstajtninger til st0tte for byggeaktiiteten af en st0rrelsesorden pa mia fl. Foranstaltningerne synes dog endnu ikke at hae haft nogen indflydelse pa aktiitetsnieauet, sa at endog irksomhederne inden for offentligt byggeri har en stor uudnyttet kapacitet. Desuden pairker irksomhedernes ringe inesteringslyst stadigrek erhersliets byggeplaner. srer boligbyggeriet lider under ikke udnyttet kapacitet. Nedgangen i det pabegyndte byggeri kan konstateres oeralt i Frellesskabet. Desuden er antallet af byggetilladelser strerkt faldende i aile ande, nanlig Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og i Beneluxlandene.

12 TAX REVENUE SKATTENDTA:GTER D3 B.A. Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland BelgiqueBelgie Luxembourg United Kingdom Mrd DM 1 ll V r " "97 ll V Mrd FF 110 Mia 2400 Mrd Lit 00rr Mio Fl ,",.,...., r ,.. 0 l ,..,... t...,,, "" ll V """ ll V 6ooo rr+r _111V so... Mia FB 3500 Mia Flbg 3500r...Mio ooor r ll V 1500 "... 1 : ll V ll V With economic actiity still flagging, the flow of tax reenue in most Community countries has continued to be sluggish in recent months. The sharp increases in Belgium and taly are largely due to changes in collection procedures and in tax Jaws and are therefore only temporary. n Germany, where reenue up to April was lower than twele months earlier and the budget deficit is increasing sharply, the authorities are keeping a close watch on the effectieness of the stimulatory measures introduced at the end of last year. Other countris hae also taken selectie support measues, in particular taly, the Netherlands and Belgium. n France the goernment at the end of April decided on a programme to stimulate priate and public inestment. n reland, where it was decided at the end of June to gie employment premiums and subsidies on essential goods and serices and to undertake additional expenditure in faour of inestment, the rate of personal income tax on the highest incomes is to be raised by 0 _,;;. n the United Kingdom, where public expenditure has risen sharply in the past few months, the April budget is likely to hae a dampening effect on demand. Skatteindtregterne har i de seneste maneder reret temmelig moderate i de fleste medlemsstater pa grund af edarende konjunkturafmatning. Den kraftige rekst i Belgien og talien skyldes for en stor del rendrede opkrreningsmetoder hh. nye skatteloe og er derfor kun af forbigaende art. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, hor indtregterne indtil april a under de tilsarende tal aret f0r, og hor budgetunderskuddet fomges strerkt, f0lger myndighedeme opmrerksomt irkningerne af de i slutningen af forrige ar edtagne igangsretningsforanstaltninger. Ogsa andre Jande har truffet selektie st0tteforanstaltninger. Dette grelder isrer talien, Nederlandene og Belgien. Frankrig har regeringen i slutningen af april edtaget et igangsretningsprogram for priate og offentlige inesteringer. rland ble det sidst i juni besluttet isrer at beilge srerlige beskreftigelsesprremier, subsidiere resentlige are og tjenesteydelser samt 0ge de inesteringsfremmende udgifter. Skatten pa de h0jeste personindkomster 0ges med 0 Det forenede Kongerige, hor de offentlige udgifter er steget strerkt i de seneste maneder, indebrerer det i april fremlagte budget i 0rigt en fomgelse af skattebyrden med henblik pa at mindske det oksende budgetunderskud.

13 04 SHARE PRCES AKTEKURSER 19 = T lj CE EG EC V"" 1 BR Deutschland ltalia Nederland J "" " United Kingdom. r "\..,:... ;\!A A, lr... V \: h\ 1\ \ r \ 1 \. r1 \ Danmark reland f Belgique Belgie..., Luxembourg France,......, 7 ll \, _\,...,,,. 1\ _ \::::: 1., l "" _,., \... \. \,... ; r )V, " \ 7 " """ \ 1\.._....,; :6. 1\ " \ \,, u \, \ \ \_\ \ 1 l J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D After the general boom during the early months of the year, sentiment on Community share markets has cooled considerably recently. n May and June losses outweighed gains in most member countries. This may hae been partly due to the usual reticence of inestors following a sharp rise. But the main reason probably was that hopes for an early business upswing had been disappointed. Howeer, there were special. moements. Gains still predominated in May in the United Kingdom when it became apparent that oters would endorse continued membership of the Community, but subsequently price falls tended to predominate as in the rest of the Community. n taly prices fell after the regional elections on 15 June. n Denmark share prices continued mainly upwards in May and June. n some countries, especially in Germany and the United Kingdom, public companies were able to increase their equity capital on a substantial scale by issuing new shares. Efter den almindelige hausse i iirets f0rste miineder er klimaet pii aktieb0rserne i Frellesskabet bleet strerkt afk0let i den seneste tid. maj og juni dominerede kursnedgangene i de fleste medlemsstater. Sandsynligis har en resentlig grund hertil reret inestorernes sredanlige tilbageholdenhed efter de kraftige forudgiiende kursstigninger. Den igtigste grund rna dog rere, at forhiibningerne om et tidligt konjunkturopsing skuffedes. Der forekom alligeel srerlige beregelser. Saledes ar stigningerne stadig oerejende i maj i Det forenede Kongerige, efter afstemningsresultatet. Senest har tendensen til kursfald reret oerejende som i Frellesskabet i 0rigt. ltalien forarsagede resultatet af regionalalgene den 15. juni et kraftigt kursfald. Danmark har aktiekurserne ogsa i maj ogjuni hredet sig. nogle ande, srerlig i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og i Det forenede Kongerige, har aktieselskaberne i betydeligt omfang kunnet styrke deres egenkapital ed emission af nye aktier.

14 LONGTERM NTEREST RATES LANGFRSTEDE RENTESATSER D5 % j i Danmark lrlande B.R. Deutschland..., United Kingdom " \ \!h i \ JA \ \ r1\, Y \ \ \ J ",_... r (....,,.,, 1, _J _ "" r 1!,., _...,.. Fran ce,.. 1" ltalia Nederland BelgiqueBelg ie !" rj \ 1_,. L J _ c::,......, _, r1.""!....;;;;ii< J F M AM J J AS 0 N OJ F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N D The continued slide in shortterm interest rates has had only a partial and uneen effect on the capital markets in the member countries. Longterm interest rates in Belgium and Germany seem to hae been the quickest responding to the easier conditions on the money market. n the Netherlands, taly and France, by contrast, longterm interest rates hae eased only hesitantly. n the United Kingdom the rates, already high, rose een further in April and May. The increase in Denmark was largely attributable to the announcement of an unusually large public loan issue. n Belgium the rule that banks must inest part of the increase in their deposits in Goernment paper was lifted at the end of April. So far this year sales of fixedinterest securities in most countries hae been considerably up on the same period last year. n seeral member countries the public authorities hae been able to coer their large borrowing needs without serious difficulty on the capital market. Den fortsatte nedsrettelse af den korte rente er kun delis og uensartet slaet igennem pa kapitalmarkederne i medlemsstaterne. De langfristede rentesatser synes hurtigst at f0lge lempelsen pa pengemarkedet i Belgien og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Derimod har de kun t0ende giet efter i Nederlandene, i talien og i Frankrig. Det forenede Kongerige er de h0je rentesatser endog steget i april og maj. Stigningen i Danmark har hoedsageligt sin forklaring i den bebudede emission af et usredanligt stort offentligt an. Belgien er bestemmelsen om, at bankerne skal placere en del af reksten i deres indian i statspapirer, bleet ophreet i slutningen af april. Salget af fast forrentede rerdipapirer ar i den forl0bne del af indererende ar resentlig h0jere i de fleste ande end i samme tidsrum aret f0r. Det offentliges store kreditbeho har i flere medlemsstater hidtil kunnet drekkes ia kapitalmarkedet uden alorlige forstyrrelser.

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN F!ELLESSKABET + 40 %of answers % af sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning ,..,... 7 _.; g,_ CE EG EC BR Deutschland France t ltalia Nederland Belgique Belg ie irelf nd l T JFM A MJ JAS 1 0 N D r;:... t ".. "" J "\ J r\ _. L \ ū LA 7 V"" l "... \,\ \" """ \\ \ \\ \ \....\ J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S 0" J A S 0 N D + 40 BA Deutschland Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af f rerdigarelagre_ J FM AM J JASONDJ FMAM J J ASOND J F M AMJ J A SONDJ FMAM J J ASOND

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger + 40 %of answers % at sar + 30 T CE EG EC BR Deutschland 30 France ltalia Nederland 40 Graphs and ll show businessmens iews of their total orderhooks and their stocks of finished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages f the aifference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( + ) and the percentage f those who find them "below normal" ()_ Graph m shows threemonth moing aerages of"the difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( +) and those who expected it to be down (). The table below shows businessmens assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( +) being aboe normal, ( =) being normal, () being below normal. t also shows whether, they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( +), no change ( =) or decrease ()in their production and in their selling prices. Detailed comments are gien in "Results of the business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community", published three times a year. Diagrammerne og ll gengier tre mcmeders glidende gennemsnit af forskelsardien melem irksomhedsledernes sar»sterre«( + ) og»mindre«() edrerende ordrebestand og fardigarelagre. Diagram ll iser ligeledes i form af tre maneders glidende gennemsnit forskelsardien ( procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»foregelse«( +) eler en»formindskelse«() af produktionen. Nedenstaende tabel gengier for de seneste tre maneder irksomhedsledernes bedemmelse af, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og fardigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eller forholdsis sma (). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( +), nogenlunde uandrede ( =) eller aftagende ( ) produktion og salgsprisen i de felgende tre eller fire maneder anfert. Udferlige kommentarer findes i»resutaterne af konjunkturundersegelsen hos irksomheds edere i Fallesskabet«der offentligg(i}res tre gange om aret. BR France Deutschland F M A F M A Total orderbooks = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks = Den udenlandskeordrebeholdning Stocks of finished goods = Frerdigarelagre Expectations: production = Produktionsforentningerne Expectations: selling prices = Salgsprisforentninger ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. Belgique Luxem EEC reland t alia Nederland Belgie bourg E0F F M A F M A F M A F M A F M A F M A " ) Eksklusie bygge og anlagsirksomhed, narings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne A 1 ndustrial production: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities (excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco). reland and Denmark: quarterly index of OECD. Community: estimated index. Seasonally adjusted indices: threemonth moing aerage. A 1 lndustriproduktion: ndeks fra Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Falesskaber ( eksklusie bygge og anlagsirksomhed, narings og nydelsesmidler). 1rland og Danmark: kartalsindeks OECD. Fallesskabet: beregnet indeks. Sasonkorrigeret indeks: tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. France: number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment, benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A2 Antal arbejdslose: Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af sasonkorrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Frankrig: antal arbejdssogende. talien: kuren angier antal personer, registreret pa arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke til antal arbejdslose. Luxembourg: ubetydelig arbejdsloshed. Belgien: fuldtids ledige personer, som modtager arbejdsloshedsunderstottelse. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. A 4 Balance oftrade: ncluding intracommwiity trade. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Exports fob, imports cif, excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium cmd Luxembourg: common cure. A 4 Handelsbalance: nklusie handel indenfor Fallesskabet. Fallesskabet: kun handel med ikke medlemslande. Beregnet pa grundlag af tal for import og eksport sasonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Falesskaber. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.if., eksklus.ie monetart guld. Kurer kan for de seneste maneder are deis baseret pa skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: falles kure. D 1 Output in the metal products industries: Seasonally adjusted indices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities; Three month moing aerages. Comparable figures are not aailable for Denmark and reland. D 1 Produktion i metalindustri: Sasonkorrigeret indeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber; tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. For 1rland og Danmark foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. D 2 Dwellings authorised: Number of dwellings for which permits hae been issued. Germany: from 1968 West Berlin excluded. Comparable jigures are not aailable for the United Kingdom. Source: SOEC. D 2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelser: Antal udstedte byggetilladelser til boligbyggeri. Tyskland: eksklusie Vest Berlin. For Det forenede Kongerige foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Department of Local Goernment. D 3 Tax reenue: Goernment tax reenue. Monthly aerages. Germany: Federal and Lander taxes. Denmark: comparable figures are not aailable. Source: SOEC, reland: Central Statistics Office. D4 Share prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. D 3 Skatteindt regter: Stat ens skatteindtagter manedsgennemsnit Tyskland: inklusie skatteindtagter i delstaterne. For Danmark foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. Kilde: SKEF, rland: Central Statics Office. D4 Aktiekurser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. D 5 Longterm interest rates: Yield on fixedinterestbearing securities. Belgium: goernment securities maturing in oer 5 years issued after 1 December France: interest yield on securities in the priate sector; 2nd category loans. Netherlands: aerage yield of the three most recent goernment loans. Germany: all stock exchange securities quoted. taly: yield on bonds. United Kingdom, reland and Denmark: Goernment Bond Yield. Source: SOEC. D 5 Langfristede rentesatser: Afkast af ardipapirer med fast nomine rente. Belgien: Statsardipapirer med mere end 5 ars lobetid udstedt efter 1. december Frankrig: renteafkast af Va!rdipapirer i den priate sektor; 2. prioritets an. Nederlandene: gennemsnitsrente af de 3 seneste slatsan. Tyskland aile borsnoterede ardipapirer. talien: afkast af obligationer. Det forenede Kongerige, rland og Danmark: Afkast af statsobligationer. Kilde: SKEF. 1 Eur = gm of fine gold g fingu1d