Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

Transkript

1 >mmission of the European Communities ommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske situation i Fcellesskabet Published monthly Mlmedlig publikation

2 This publication appears monthly. t is intended, by means of graphs and brief commentaries, to proide a continual analysis of the deelopment of the main economic indicators in the Community. Denne publikation udkommer manedligt. Den har til formal ed diagrammer og korte kommentarer at fremlcegge en fortl0bende analyse af de cesentligste konjunkturindikatorers forl0b i Fcellesskabet. n each issue an introductory commentary, deoted to a subject of current or special interest, is always accompanied by the following graphs and notes: A 1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The other graphs and notes appear periodically, alternating as follows: En kortfattet kommentar edmrende et emne af scerlig aktualitet eller interesse efterf0lges i hert nummer altid af nedenncente fire diagrammer og kommentarer: A 1 lndustriproduktion A2 Antal arbejdsl0se A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Handelsbalance De 0rige diagrammer og kommentarer forekommer kun periodisk som anf0rt: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober 81 Exports 82 Trade between member countries 83 Discount rate and callmoney rates 84 Money supply 85 Exchange rates 81 Eksport 82 Handel mellem medlemslandene 83 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente 84 Pengeforsyning 85 Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 mports C1 mport C2 Terms of trade C2 Bytteforhold C3 Wholesale prices C3 Engrospriser C4 Retail sales C4 Detailomscetning C5 Wages C5 L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D1 Produktion i metalindustri D2 Dwellings authorized D2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Tax reenue D3 Skatteindtcegter D4 Share prices D4 Aktiekurser D5 Longterm interest rates D5 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Fcellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemcerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends Rue de la Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F lellesskabet Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0 konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling Rue de la Loi 200, 1049 Bruxelles

4 NDUSTRAJSTS' ASSESSMENT OF THE BUSNESS STUATON Tentatie results of the business surey of managements in the Community, carried out at the end of February and in early March, point to somewhat more marked diergences in trends as between the Member States, against a rather more faourable general background. n France, the results indicate an improement which may well be partly seasonal in orderbooks and production expectations. Demand is apparently substantially stronger in the motor ehicle, electrical engineering and chemical industries. n the United Kingdom, production expectations remain faourable, and are indeed more satisfactory than in the preious month. Howeer, managements do expect the rapid upward moement in their selling prices to continue. n the Netherlands and in Luxembourg, the general climate seems to hae improed of late and managements are more confident about the outlook for demand and production. n reland, although total orderbooks hae shortened, stocks of finished products hae fallen and managements are also more optimistic. n Belgium, where orders are now marking time at a relatiely low leel, expectations with regard to production are more faourable. An exception to this is the motor ehicle industry, where orders hae increased, but production expectations hae deteriorated in the steel, mechanical equipment (other than electrical) and furniture industries. n the Federal Republic of Germany, on the other hand, the business climate has apparently deteriorated, especially in the industries producing capital goods and intermediate goods. The leel of total orders and the utilization of capacity are both falling, and production expectations are fow less faourable. Only the consumer goods and the motor ehicle industries form an exception to this trend. n taly, demand is apparently still weak and managements' production expectations remain relatiely pessimistic. Brussels, 31 March VRKSOMHEDSLEDERNES SYN PA KONJUNKTURERNE De f0rste resultater af konjunkturunders0gelserne foretaget i slutningen af februar og begyndelsen af marts blandt irksomhedslederne i Frellesskabet gier samlet et lidt bedre billede, samtidig med at deiser en udikling med lidt mere udprregede forskelle mellem medlemsstaterne. Resultaterne iser, at der i Frankrig er sket en forbedring hilket uden til delis er sresonbegrundet af ordrebeholdningerne og af produktionsforentningerne; Eftersp0rgselen er styrket betydeligt i automobilindustrien, in den for produktionen af elektrisk udstyr og i den kemiske industri. Det forenede Kongerige er produktionsforentningerne fortsat gode, og de synes endog at rere mere tilfredsstillende end maneden f0r. Virksomhedsledene enter imidlertid, at salgspriserne fortsat il stige hurtigt. Nederlandene og i Luxembourger det generelle klima forbedret en smule, og industrilederne har st0rre forhabninger til udiklingen i eftersp0rgsel og produktion. rland gier irksomhedslederne ligeledes udtryk for st0rre optimisme, sel om de samlede ordrebeholdninger er mindsket, reduceredes frerdigarelagrene. Belgien, hor ordretilgangen er stabiliseret pa et ret lat nieau, synes udsigterne for produktionen mere gunstige. Som en undtagelse fra denne udikling har automobilindustrien opleet en rekst i ordretilgangen, medens produktionsforentningerne i stalindustrien, den ikkeelektriske maskinindustri og i m0belindustrien er forringet. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland synes erhersklimaet derimod at rere forringet, isrer inden for de industrier, der fremstiller inesteringsgoder og halfabrikata. Den samlede ordretilgang og kapacitetsudnyttelsesgraden er faldende, medens produktionsforentningerne er bleet mindre gunstige. Kun forbrugsareindustrien og automobilindustrien er ikke bemrt af denne situationsforrerring. Endelig er eftersp0rgselen fortsat sag i ltalien, og irksomhedsledernes produktionsforentninger er fortsat ret pessimistiske. Bruxelles, den 31. marts 1977.

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 1970 = ndustry as a whole Unadjusted indices 140 Den samlede industri lkke scesonkorrigerede tal Capital goods Adjusted indices Kapitlgoder Scesonkorrigerede tal CEEGEC CEEGEC Consumer goods Adjusted indices F orbrugsgoder Scesonkorrigerede tal Adjusted indices CEEGEC Scesonkorrigerede tal L L ntermediate goods Adjusted indices Halfabrikata Scesonkorrigerede tal CEEGEC M M A 0 M M A 0 ndustrial production in the Community continued to expand at the beginning of n January, the seasonallyadjusted EUROST AT index exceeded for the first time the maximum leel recorded in The increase oer the last twele months was 9 ;,,and oer the last six months 61 2 ;',,and most Member States contributed. t contrast with the pessimism shown by managements generally with regard to their orderbooks and gien the slow rate of expansion of final demand it has also led to a buildup of stocks of finished products. The growth in production has been restricted almost exclusiely to consumer goods. Production of capital goods remains sluggish as a result of the low leel of inestment in most Member States. The basic industries and producer goods sector is obiously affected by the crisis currently affecting the steel industry. n the United Kingdom, howeer, the industries in this sector are beginning to benefit from North Sea oil. Stigningen i Frellesskabets industriproduktion fortsatte i begyndelsen af januar miede det sresonkorrigerede EUROSTATindeks for f0rste gang op oer det maksimum. som konstateredes i Der er tale om en stigning pa 9 <, oer de seneste tol maneder og pa 6 j 2 %oer de seneste seks maneder. Denne rekst har gjort sig greldende i de fleste medlemsstater. Den strider mod irksomhedsledernes almindeligis pessimistiske urdering af deres ordrebeholdninger og har pa grund af den moderate rekst i den endelige eftersp0rgsel giet sig udslag i en rekst i frerdigarelagrene. Det b0r i 0rigt bemrerkes, at reksten i produktionen nresten udelukkende skyldes en stigning i produktionen af forbrugsarer. Udiklingen er fortsat t0ende for inesteringsgodeproduktionens edkommende, hilket skyldes den ringe inesteringsb0jelighed, der g0r sig greldende ide fleste medlemsstater. Basis og produktionsgodeindustrierne lider betydeligt under den krise, der i 0jeblikket har ramt stalindustrien. Det forenedc Kongerige er disse industrier dog bcgyndt at drage fordel af tilf0rslerne af olie fra Nords0en.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A 1970 = Adjusted indices Semi Log. scale Scesonkorrigerede tal Semi log. skala 160 r 1 1 [ _7_511lll19_7_ _7_7 1 1, Danmark ltalia 150 _ BelgiqueBelgie ++t Luxembourg United Kingdom t Adjusted indices Semi Log. scale Scesonkorrigerede tal Semilog skala B R Deutschland reland France Nederland _ b ' """ '',.,......_... 7 l.... ' J FM AM J J AS 0 H D J FM AM J J AS 0 H D J FM AM J J AS 0 H DJ FM AM J J AS 0 H D

7 ,.,.:. A2 UNEMPLOYMENT (thousands) ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (i tusinde) 2500 SemiLog. scale Semilog skala T T!1 19, _ ; 7 '. _.,_,.. = =, ll""' """""',.....,"'... C::::::,..."" "..,.'. 1 i""""""'"..., '"'... " ; f..=::.::... " ;' Danmark BR Deutschland France ltalia Min. Laroro { STAT Nederland United Kingdom reland... Belgique Belgie J FMAM J J AS OND J FMA MJ J AS ONDJ FMA MJ J ASOND J FMA MJ J ASOND Throughout the Community, the tendency (first noticed in the summer of 1976) for the seasonallyadjusted number of wholly unemployed to stabilize had become unmistakable by February. t was noted in all Member States with the exception of Denmark, France and probably taly. The rate of unemployment has remained high in the Community, at about 4.6 % (1). Generally speaking, there has been an increase in the seasonallyadjusted number of acancies. This is particularly the case in the United Kingdom, where much of the unemployment amongst schoolleaers has been eliminated oer the last few months, thank mainly to specific measures taken to combat unemployment. The decrease in the number or unemployed aged less than twentyfie appears to hae slackened in France and, more particularly, in taly. Howeer, it is difficult to assess exactly the situation in taly owing to a high leel of shorttime working, for which non figures are aailable. Frellesskabet som helhed har det sresonkorrigerede antal arbejdsl0se siden sommeren 1976 haft en tendens til at cere konstant, hilket er bleet klart bekrreftet i februar maned. Denne udikling har kunnet konstateres i aile medlemsstater bortset fra Danmark, Frankrig og sandsynligis ltalien. Arbejdsl0sheden i Frellesskabet er fortsat h0j, nemlig cirka 4,6 % (). Den sresonkorrigerede eftersp0rgsel efter arbejdskraft er generelt okset. Dette har isrer gjort sig greldende i Det forenede Kongerige, hor arbejdsl0sheden blandt unge, der for f0rste gang kom ud pa arbejdsmarkedet i l0bet af sommeren, for en stor dels edkommende har kunnet afikles i l0bet af de seneste maneder takket <:ere srerlige beskceftigelsesfremmende foranstaltninger. Faldet i antallet af arbejdsl0se under femogtye ar synes at rere langsommere i Frankrig og talien. sidstnrente lander det imidlertid anskeligt at urdere situationen n0jagtigt, hilket isrer skyldes tilstedererelsen af en betydelig ikke registreret arbejdsl0shed. (1) The rate is 5 % if, in the case of taly, the figures used are those of the Ministry of Labour rather than those of STA T. (1) Arbejdsl0sheden nar op pa 5 %, his man for taliens edkommende gar ud fra arbejdsministeriets tal i stedet for tallene fra STA T.

8 CONSUMER PRCES FORBRUGERPRSER A r 1 Danmark BR Deutschland Nederland Belgique Belg ie Luxembourg 1..;;,..,.. J..; j....,..,.. _;oo#.. CE EG EC France reland ltalia United Kingdom 1970 = T T....,.,. ; ""..,::... r T....,..;',..,. r,..... L , L 1,. k:: """"" ( Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % 1tf + 2,5 + 2,0 + 1,5 + 1,0 + 0,5 0 0,5 + 3,0 + 2,5 + 2,0 + 1,5 + 1,0. + 0, J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D After gathering pace in January, price increases in the Community lost a little momentum in February. This can be explained partly be seasonal factors: in seeral Member States the increase in the prices of agricultural food products was fairly slight n the Community as a whole, howeer, the cost of liing rose at an annual rate of about 1411% in February, as against 16 % in January and % between September and December Furthermore, the spread of inflation rates in the Community scarcely narrowed at all: in the first two months of the year, the increase oer twele months was approximately ":, in reland and in the United Kingdom, and 22 Y 2 % in taly. but was only 4 o in the Federal Republic of Germany. Prices will be influenced in the short term by two opposed trends: on the one hand, by a sharp increase in the world prices of some foodstuffs and raw materials; on the other hand, by a generally moderate increase in wage costs in manufacturing industry. Efter at forbrugerprisstigningen i Frellesskabet 0gedes i januar, mindskedes den kun sagt i den f0lgende maned. Dette fork lares delis af forskellige sresonforhold i flere medlemsstater: fordyrelsen af f0dearer, der stammer fra landbruget, har reret ret begrrenset. Leeomkostningerne i Frellesskabet som helhed er ikke desto mindre okset med hened 14 Y 2 % p.a. i februar mod 16 % i januar og 13 Y 2 % mellem september og december Desuden er forskellene i udiklingen mellem medlemsstaterne nreppe bleet mindre, idet stigningen i arets to f0rste maneder sammenholdt med aret f0r androg ca % i rland, og Det forenede Kongerige og % i talien, medens den kun ar pa ca. 4 % i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Pa kort sigt pairkes forbrugerpriserne af to mod sat rettede ten denser: dels en kraftig rekst i erdensmarkedspriserne for i sse f0dearer og raarer og dels en hoedsagelig afdrempet udikling i industriens 10nomkostninger.

9 1 ',., A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur _ D,anmark _ BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL V ( '... =,...,. '". ".... ' '.. '.,r.""' K'",..._... '...,(... _ +2oor..,.,,,.,,.,,.,,,.., or+r=r.. rr... ;;:; r... 1' 200 '"" t!' :: ',,..Vj,..'.' """ f' 1. " 800 "._. _)J V 0 "' 0 )' " ::. """' rc;g ' ' EC 1800 reland 1r ltalia United Kingdom 2000 L J 1 l J F M AM J J A " S 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N OJ F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N D n the early months of 1977 there was additional eidence that the deterioration in the trade balances of seeral of the member countries in deficit has come to an end and that the underlying trend is now towards improement. Howeer, interpretation of the trade figures for the months around the turn of the year has been made difficult by the ery erratic moements in oil imports. For the Community as a whole, gien the decline in the German trade surplus, the trade dificit has probably steadied in recent months. n most of the deficit countries there has been a tendency for imports to stabilize or grow only ery slowly, no doubt associated with the sluggishness of domestic economic actiity, while exports hae generally continued a gradual expansion. This has resulted in a sharp reduction in the French trade deficit and a rather less pronounced improement in the position of the United Kingdom, taly and Denmark. By contrast, a ery rapid rise in imports has led to a widening in reland's trade deficit. n the Benelux countries both exports and imports grew more slowly in the final months of 1976 than earlier in the year. German exports hae steadied since the end of last summer and, while imports hae shown only a slowly rising trend, the trade surplus of the Federal Republic of Germany has tended to narrow in recent months. de f0rste maneder af 1977 har der ist sig nye tegn p L at forringelsen af handelsbalancen er bragt til oph0r i nogle medlemsstater med underskud, og at grundtendensen nu gar mod en forbedring. Pa grund af de forstyrrelser, der har prreget olieimporten, er det imidlertid anskeligt at fortolke tallene for slutningen af forrige ar og begyndelsen af Pa grund af faldet i Forbundsrepublikken Tysklands handelsoerskud har Frellesskabets samlede underskud sandsynligis reret urendret. isse ande med underskud har der som f0lge af stagnationen i den indenlandske 0konomiske aktiitet reret en tendens til at importen stabiliseredes eller kun steg langsomt, medens eksporten hoedsagelig oksede i moderat tempo. Som f0lge heraf er handelsbalancen bleet kraftigt forbedret i Frank rig, et forhold der ligeledes, men i mindre udstrrekning, har gjort sig greldende i Det forenede Kongerige, talien og Danmark. rland har den meget kraftige rekst i importen derimod f0rt til en forrerring af handelsunderskuddet. Beneluxlandene aftog reksten i eksporten og i importen i de sidste maneder af forrige ar. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland er der endelig sket en stabilisering af eksporten fra sidst pa sommeren sidste ar. Da importen fortsat er steget, har handelsoerskuddet haft en faldende tendens i de seneste maneder.

10 OUTPUT N THE METAL PRODUCTS NDUSTRES PRODUKTON METALNDUSTR Dl 1970 = ! Danmark France reland 150 _ Belgique Belgie Luxembourg ,.....,......" i'...,... 1',... r."... _:., 1,,...,... _......,_ ",.,..."' r' A... ;17 lt...,p : r lh V' 'r' CE EG EC BR Deutschland ltalia 140 Nederland United Kingdom ""''' =... "' '... " z_ "" _J p 1,.. J::;, r l J JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND At the beginning of 1977, the expansion of the metal products industries in the Community was seriously hampered by the slowdown in actiity in the shipbuilding and heay engineering industries. At the end of 1976, production in this sector was up by only 4Y 2 % on the leel reached a year before, whereas industrial production generally had risen by 7 Y 2 % during the same period. The most buoyant industries are still the electrical engineering and electronics industry and the motor ehicle industry. After a 15 % increase in 1975, priate car production grew by 17 % between January 1976 and January n this industry, export demand seems generally to be higher than domestic demand. n the Community as a whole, the yearonyear increase in new car registrations was only 3 Y2% in January, mainly as a result of the fall recorded in rtaly and the United Kingdom. Ved indgangen til 1977 hremmedes reksten i Frellesskabets metalindustri alorligt af den afdrempede aktiitet inden for skibsbygning og produktion af srert udstyr. Ved udgangen af 1976 ar produktionen i metalindustrien kun 4 Y2 % st0rre end tilfreldet ar ed udgangen af 1975, medens den samlede industriproduktion i samme periode steg med 7 Y2 %. Den elektriske og elektroniske industri samt automobilindustrien er fortsat de mest dynamiske sektorer. Produktionen afpriatbiler. der steg med 15 % i 1975, 0gedes med 17 % mellem januar 1976 og januar denne sektor synes udlandets eftersp0rgsel at rere mere fast end den interne eftersp0rgsel. Det iser sig at antallet af nyindregistreringer for Frellesskabet som helhed i januar kun ar 3 y 2 % st0rre end aret i forejen, hilket resentligst skyldtes et fald i indregistreringerne i talien og Det forende Kongerige.

11 02 DWELLNGS AUTHORZED (thousands) BOLGER HVORTL DER ER GVET BYGGETLLADELSER (i tusind) 119? T T T ,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 J f1 ; K A ' j, ' )!. ll Danmark BR Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie A "' "'"'.J V Luxembourg fi.j r J"". t J '...,....,. 'j' """ ',. ) u r 1 y w if } lh 'L ' ' A _:;rj ' ' t:..j tt..., 1 "'"', i'... ; T... 'f, 6 r... _ '"..., ',...,... A T.1 T' 'J.,,,...,...,....""', L 1'."'...,,..' '., " ' f' _... ',... V'""', '"... " '.> '"'..;...,,,.. i '... _.,, '... "'' ',.. '... '""' r ',,,, J FMAMJJASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND,', '.,, ', Deelopments in residential construction hae continued to dierge appreciably from one Member State to another in recent months. Actiity has been buoyant only in the Netherlands, while output in other countries of the Community, especially the United Kingdom and the Federal Republic of Germany. has actually fallen. n the Federal Republic of Germany, the Goernment recently tabled a draft law extending tax concessions for homebuyers. Since, in order to reduce their budget deficits, most Member States hae been curtailing spending, public inestment has proided little, if any, encouragement to actiity in the building and construction industry. n the Federal Republic of Germany, howeer, a multiannual public inestment programme costing in all OM million has recently been uneiled by the Goernment ; part of this total, put at about OM million, will already hae an effect during 1977 on the olume of orders and on actiity. ndustrial and commercial building remains ery sluggish as a result of the persistent weakness of business inestment on a broad front. Udiklingen i boligbyggeriet har gennem de sene te ma neder stadig c.eret karakteriseret af betydelige forskelle mellem medlemsstaterne. Der har kun reret fremgang i Nederlandene. medens der endog er konstateret en tilbagegang i andre ande i Frellesskabet, isc.er i Det forenede Kongerige og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. sidstnc.ente land har regeringen for nylig fremsat loforslag om en udidelse af skattefordelene i forbindelse med k0b afboliger. Dade fleste medlemsstater for at reducere deres budgetunderskud er slaet ind pa en moderat udgiftspolitik, har de offentlige inesteringer nee ten ikke stimuleret aktiiteten i byggesektoren. Dog har regeringen i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland netop forelagt et flerarigt program for offentlige inesteringer til et samlet bel0b pa 16 milliarder mark, horaf en del, anslaet til 3,5 milliarder mark, allerede i 1977 ii pairke ordremc.engde og aktiitetsnieau. Da irksomhedernes inesteringstilb0jelighed i almindelighed fortsat er ringe prc.eges erhersbyggeriet af en beskeden eftersp0rgsel.

12 TAX REVENUE SKATTENDT!EGTER D3 B R Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie Luxembourg United Kingdom 24 Mrd OM d _ 1975 J" ' ' Mia ll V ll V Mrd Lit Mia Fl ll V 2000 ll V ll V Mia FB Mia Flbg 3500rMio """'.,.., , '., :....., 20 ll V 0 ll V 0. ll V Generally speaking, there was only moderate growth in tax receipts in the closing months of last year. During the first quarter of 1977, the goernments of a number of Member States hae endeaoured to boost inestment and promote employment by means of budget measures while, howeer, taking steps to ensure that their budget deficits do not widen. n February, the Belgian Goernment announced a programme which was geared to achieing these aims and the cost of which is to be met by higher VAT rates on popular consumer goods. n February too, similar increases were announced in taly to coer the cost to the central goernment of assuming financial responsibility for a portion of employers' social security contributions. n March, the Danish Parliament ratified a number of measures featuring alongside jobcreating schemes some increases in taxation. n the United Kingdom, a substantial easing of direct taxation in the budget proposals of 29 March was made possible by the reduction forecast in the public sector borrowing requirement and an increase in indirect taxes. n France, an unexpected rise in public spending in the early part of the year points to a budget deficit for 1977, despite the estimates in the Finance Act. almindelighed 0gedes skatteindtregterne kun moderat i de seneste maneder af forrige ar. f0rste kartal af 1977 har regeringerne i nere medlemstater s0gt ed budgetmressige foranstaltninger at stimulere inesteringerne og fremme beskreftigelsen uden at forrerre underskuddet. februar forelagde den belgiske regering i dette 0jemed et program, som finansieres gennem en forh0jelse af merrerdiafgiften for igtige forbrugsgoder. talien besluttedes det ligeledes i februar at hree merrerdiafgiften som kompensation for, statens oertagelse af en del af arbejdsgierbidragene til sociale sikringsordninger. Det danske folketing edtog i marts en rrekke lignende foranstaltninger, som foruden bestemmelser, der sigter mod at fremme beskreftigelsen, omfatter isse afgiftsforh0jelser. Det forende Kongerige har den im0desete mindskelse af den offentlige sektors finansieringsbeho og forh0jelsen af de indirekte afgifter muliggjort en resentlig lempelse af den direkte beskatning if0lge finansloforslaget af29. marts. Denne lempelse er dog gjort delis betinget af en tilfredsstillende l0noerenskomst. En uforudset rekst i de offentlige udgifter i Frankrig i arets f0rste maneder medf0rer, at der i modsretning til finansloens sk0n rna regnes med underskud pa budgettet for 1977.

13 D4 SHARE PRCES AKTEKURSER J T 1 T ',. " ' r::_... ' '.. 1, ', 1 F,( CE EG EC BR Deutschland 50 1 ltalia Nederland United Kingdom w '... ' ' ) ' "' A """"'......,.. f..., _ ',, 180 l,j_ ' ',. _, " ' ""' "", '". " >7 ;'..... ;, !",...,., ' ' ) "' r...,..., "' '...,_...,,...,.,.,,.,. ' 1 Danmark France reland BelgiqueBelgie 70 1 Luxembourg, " ' ".' J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D n the first three months of the year, share prices on the Community's stock exchanges hae reflected a cautious attitude on the part of buyers, and quotations hae drifted down almost eerywhere. This weakness on the market, which has persisted for about twele months, is probably attributable to the fact that the economic recoery has not yet taken a firm hold, as had been hoped. After a shortlied rally at the beginning of the year, German share prices continued to lose ground until midmarch, when they appear to hae begun moing in the opposite direction. n France, where prices hae fallen steadily since the early part of the year, the market suffered a more pronounced setback in the second half of March following the results of the municipal elections. n taly, where the prospects for an improement in the economic situation are still uncertain, share prices fell to their lowest leel in midmarch. The London Stock Exchange, howeer, is apparently unaffected by the generally depressed market situation. The rally by sterling, the improement in the balance of payments, the downward moement of interest rates and the more faourable trend of company profits had, in January, led to a sharp recoery in prices which, after a brief lull, was resumed in March. By the end of March, share prices in the United Kingdom were, on aerage, some 58 % higher than on 27 October 1976, the lowest point of that year. arets f0rste tre maneder har udiklingen i aktiekurserne i Frellesskabet reret karakteriseret af en afentende holdning fra k0berside og af et ret udbredt kursfald. Dette sage marked, der har bestaet i ca. et ar, skyldes utilsomt, at habet om konsolidering af det 0konomiske opsing hid til har skuffet. Efter et kortarigt opsing ed arets begyndelse faldt de tyske aktiekurser uafbrudt indtil midten af marts, hor der synes at rere indtradt en bedring. Frankrig, hor kurserne ar faldet jrent siden arets begyndelse, f0rte resultatet afkommunealgene i anden haldel af marts til et mere udtalt fald. talien, hor udsigterne til en sanering af 0konomien fortsat er usikre, naede aktiekurserne deres laeste nieau i midten af marts. Londons b0rs danner stadigrek undtagelsen fra markedets generelle trreghed. Styrkelsen af pundet, forbedringen af betalingsbalancen, rentefaldet og den forbedrede udikling i irksomhedernes oerskud, hade i januar f0rt til en betydelig kursopgang, som efter en rolig periode fortsatte i marts. Ved udgangen af sidste maned 1<1 de britiske aktiekurser i genemsnit ca. 58 % oer det laeste nieau i 1976, som konstateredes den 27. oktober.

14 LONGTERM NTEREST RATES LANGFRSTEDE RENTESATSER 05 % ' l 1977 Danmark lrlande ltalia United Kingdom ; J (., ) J ''J... _ 1._,.,. [7',..: 'Y l',,...,.,., ".,.'VJ A.b r 1f!J,.,,,""" fo,! h1 V',. ) 8 t, 14 B R Deutschland France Nederland BelgiqueBelgie ' :.,,J... t,,. LJ... _..._ 7 _, """ 6 l l 1 l 1 l l 1 l 1 1 J ', F M AM J J A S 0 N 0 J F M A M J J AS 0 ::::: "'... "" ' l 1 '1 l NDJ FMAMJJASONOJ FMAMJ J ASOND n the early months of the year, longterm interest rates hae fallen in all the Member States except taly, where, under the impact of seasonal factors, the trend has remained upwards. The general upward moement which got under way in the different Member States between the middle of 1975 and the middle of 1976 would appear, therefore, to be coming to an end. n a number of countries, the public sector borrowing requirement is lower than a year earlier, while the demand for longterm funds from the priate sector has remained sluggish. On the supply side, the apprehensions felt oer inflation hae, generally speaking, lessened somewhat, and this has probably encouraged inestors to moe into fixedinterest securities. The fall in interest rates has been particularly marked in the United Kingdom, where issues of goernment stock reached a record leel. With a iew to curbing capital inflows, the United Kingdom authorities, decided, exceptionally, to impose a 35 % withholding tax on interest accruing to nonresidents subscribing to a new, large issue floated in March. n Denmark, where, by contrast, the Goernment is still encouraging capital inflows, longterm interest rates are, for the time being, the highest in the Community, being almost double the German rates, which are the lowest. arets f0rste maneder ar der et nresten generelt fald i renten for langfristede an i Frellesskabet. Ttalien ar, isrer pa grund af s<esonforhold, den eneste medlemsstat, hor tendensen fortsat ar opadgaende. De store stigninger, der tog deres begyndelse i medlemsstaterne mellem midten af 1975 og midten af det f0lgende ar, synes saledes at rere bragt til oph0r. flere ande er den offentlige sektors finansieringsbeho reduceret i forhold til forrig:e :h, medens den priate sektors eftersp0rgsel efter langfristet kapital fortsat er sag. Pa udbudssiden er inflationsfrygten generelt aftaget en smule, hilket uden til har tilskyndet sparerne til at k0be rerdipapirer med fast afkast. Rentefaldet har is<er <eret udtalt i England, hor udbuddet af statspapirer har naet en ny rekordh0jde. For at drempe kapitalindf0rslen besluttede de britiske myndigheder, med henblik pa en betydelig nyemmission i marts, i modsretning til tidligere praksis at palregge de udenlandske k0beres renteindtregter en 35 % kildeskat. Danmark, his myndigheder derimod fortsat begunstiger kapitaltilf0rsel har for 0jeblikket Frellesskabets h0jeste rente for langfristede Jan; den er nresten dobbelt sa h0j som i Tyskland, der har den laeste rente.

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FA:LLESSKABET + 30 %of answers % af sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning T T T T k, ' ' l._" : ',' 30 ' CE EG EC ::J BR Deutschland France 60 ltal ia reland Nederland Belgique Belgie 70 1,. " ' i. 1 ' 7 L 1 (A "' """...;.; "" == "' ' ' J.. L ' ') ' )... J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAM J J ASONDJ FMAM J J ASOND '" %of answers Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af frerdigarelagre % af sar J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND 1 ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. 1 ) Eksklusie bygge og anhzgsirksomhed, ncerings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger + 40 %of answers %at sar CE EG EC France 30 reland ltalia Nederland 40 Graphs and show businessmen's ie of their total orderhooks and their stocks o(finished goods, eresented as threemonth moing aerages of the aifference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( + ) and the percentage of those who find them "below nor11jal" (). Graph m shows threemonth moing aerages of the difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( +) and those who expected it to be down (). The table below shows businessmen's assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of _finished goods during the last three months, ( +) being aboe normal, ( = ) being normal, () being below normal. t also shows whether, they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( +), no change ( =) or decrease ()in their production and in their selling prices. Diagrammerne og ll gengier tre maneders glidende gennemsnit af forskelscerdien melem irksomhedsledernes sar»slftrre«( + ) og»mindre«() edr@rende ordrebestand og fcerdigarelagre. Diagram ll iser ligeledes i form af tre maneders glidende gennemsnit forskelscerdien ( procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»for@gelse«( + ) eler en»formindskelse«() af produktionen. Nedenstaende tabel gengier for de seneste tre maneder irksomhedsledernes bed@mmelse af, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og fcerdigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eller forholdsis sma ( ). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( + ), nogenlunde ucendrede ( =) eller aftagende () produktion og salgspriser i de f@gende tre eler fire maneder anf@rt. BR Bel tlflil' LltL'll France reland ltalia 'L'tkrl;tnd LnitcJ EC DLuhchland Belgie bourg Kingdom rf QuestionsSp0rgsmal f) J F D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F D J F Total orderbooks Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks Den udenlandske ordrebeholdning = Stocks of finished goods Fa:rdigarelagre = Expectations: production Produktionsforentningerne = Expectations: selling prices Salgsprisforentninger = J ') ) l

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne A 1 ndustrial Production: ndices ol EU ROST AT (excluding con t ruction). For the seasonally adjusted series, threemonth moing al'erage. Community: estimates. France: curefor recent months may he partly based on estimates. reland and Denmark: quarterly indices. A 1 lndustriproduktion: index EU ROST AT ( excl. hygge og anlagsirksomhed). Sasonkorrigerede index fremtrader som tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Fallesskahet: skon. Frank rig: kure kan for de seneste maneder are haseret pa skon. rland og Danmark: kartalsindex. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerage ol the seasonally adjusted EU ROST AT series. Number of persons registered at Employment Offices. taly: dotted graph related to the quarterly series published hy 1ST AT on the basis ol its sureys. A 2 Antal arbejdslose: Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit afsasonkorrigerede tal fra EU ROST AT. Antal ledige personer, registreret pa arbejdsanisningskontorer. t alien: den punkterede kure sarer til de af 1ST AT udarhejdede kartalstal haseret pa rundsporger. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of EU ROSTA T. Community: estimates. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks EUROSTA T. F{elesskahet: skon. A 4 Trade balance: ncluding intracommunity trade. Three month moing aerages. Calculated on the basis of the seasonally adjusted EUROST ATseriesfor exports and imports :exports{o.b.: imports c.if: excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be based on estimates. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Belgium and Lu.emhourg: common cure..a4 Handelsbalance: nklusil'e handel inden for Falesskahet. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit. Bereget pa grund!ag al tal Fa EU ROST A Tfor import og eksport sasonkorrigeret. Eksport.fo.h. import c. if, ekskusie monetart guld. Kurer kan for de seneste maneder are baseret pa skon. Fallesskahet: handel med ikke medlemslande. Belgien og Luxembourg: falles kure. D 1 Output in the metal products industries: Seasonally adjusted EUROSTAT indices. Three lllonth moing aerage. reland: quarterly indices. Comparable data are not aailable.for Denmark. D 1 Produktion i metalindustri: Sasonkorrigeret indeks EU ROST AT: tre maneders gidende gennemsnit. rland: kartasis. For Danmark foreligger endnu ikke sammenlignelige tal. D 2 Dwellings authorised: number ol dwelingsfor which permits hae been issued. Comparable data are not aailable for the United Kingdom. Source: EUROSTAT. reland: Department of Local Goernment. D 2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelser: Antal udstedte hyggetilladelser til boligbyggeri. For Detforenede Kongerigeforeligger endnu ikke sammenligneige tal. Kif de: EU ROST AT: rland: Department of Local Goernment. D 3 Tax reenue: Gol'crnment tax reenue. Monthlr al'erages. FR Germany: including "Lander" taxes. Source: EUROSTAT. reland: Central Statistics Office. D 3 Skatteindtregter: Statens skatteindtagter. Manedsgennemsnit. Tyskland: inklusie skatteindtagter i delstaterne. Kif de: EU RO ST AT: lrland: Central Statistics Office. 04 Share prices: EUROSTAT indices. D 4 Aktiekurser: ndeks EUROSTAT. D 5 Long term interest rates: Yield on fixed interest securities. FR Germany: all stock exchange quoted securities. France: interest yield on securities in the priate sector: 2nd category loans. taly: yield on hands. Netherlands: aerage yield of the three most recent goernment loans. Belgium: goernment securities maturing in oer fie ears and issued after 1st December Denmark, reland and. United Kingdom.: Goernment bond yield. Source: E.U RO ST AT and national departments. D 5 Langfristede rentesatser: Afkast al ardipapirer med fast nomine rente. Tyskland: aile horsnoterede ardipapirer. Frankrig: renteafkast af ardipapirer i den priate sektor: 2. prioritets tan. ltalien: afkast afobligationer. Nederandene: gennemsnitsrente af de 3 seneste stats!dn. Belgien: Statsardipapirer med mere end 5 drs lohetid udstedt e{ter 1. december Danmark. rland og Det forenede Kongerige: Afkast af statsobligationer. Kif de: EURO ST AT og nationae tjenestegrene. 1 Eur (Februaryfebruar 1977) 3,15665 DM 6,60000 FF 3,35507 Fl 1169,000 Lit 48,6572 FBFlux 0, ,89407 DKr