Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community

Transkript

1 ,mmission of the European Communities ommissionen for De europceiske Fcellesskaber Graphs and Notes on the Economic Situation in the Community Diagrammer og kommentarer til den 0konomiske situation i FCBesskabet Published monthly Manedlig publikation

2 This publication appears monthly. t is intended, by means of graphs and brief commentaries, to proide a continual analysis of the deelopment of the main economic indicators in the Community. Denne publikation udkommer manedligt. Den har til formal ed diagrammer og korte kommentarer at fremlcegge en fortl0bende analyse af de cesentligste konjunkturindikatorers forl0b i Fcellesskabet. n each issue an introductory commentary, deoted to a subject of current or special interest, is always accompanied by the following graphs and notes: A 1 ndustrial production A2 Unemployment A3 Consumer prices A4 Balance of trade The other graphs and notes appear periodically, alternating as follows: En kortfattet kommentar edmrende et emne af scerlig aktualitet eller interesse efterf0lges i hert nummer altid af nedenncente fire diagrammer og kommentarer: A 1 lndustriproduktion A2 Antal arbejdsl0se A3 Forbrugerpriser A4 Handelsbalance De 0rige diagrammer og kommentarer forekommer kun periodisk som anf0rt: January, April, July, October Januar, april, juli, oktober 81 Exports 82 Trade between member countries 83 Discount rate and callmoney rates 84 Money supply 85 Exchange rates 81 Eksport 82 Handel mellem medlemslandene 83 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente 84 Pengeforsyning 85 Vekselkurser February, May, AugustSeptember, Noember Februar, maj, augustseptember, noember C1 mports C1 mport C2 Terms of trade C2 Bytteforhold C3 Wholesale prices C3 Engrospriser C4 Retai sales C4 Detailomsretning C5 Wages C5 L0nninger March, June, AugustSeptember, December Marts, juni, augustseptember, december D1 Output in the metal products industries D1 Produktion i metalindustri D2 Dwellings authorized D2 Boliger hortil der er giet byggetilladelse D3 Tax reenue D3 Skatteindtregter D4 Share prices D4 Aktiekurser D5 Longterm interest rates D5 Langfristede rentesatser Results of the monthly business surey carried out among heads of enterprises in the Community are to be found immediately after the graphs and notes. Resultater af den manedlige konjunkturunders0gelse indhentet blandt irksomhedsledelser i Frellesskabet findes umiddelbart efter diagrammerne og kommentarerne. For obserations on the graphs see last page. Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne findes pa sidste side.

3 Commission of the European Communities DirectorateGeneral for Economic and Financial Affairs Directorate for National Economies and Economic Trends 200, rue de la Loi, 1049 Bruxelles GRAPHS AND NOTES ON THE ECONOMC STUATON N THE COMMUNTY DAGRAMMER OG KOMMENTARER TL DEN 0KONOMSKE STUATON F LELLESSKABET Kommissionen for De europreiske Frellesskaber Generaldirektoratet for 0 konomiske og Finansielle Anliggender Direktoratet for Medlemsstaternes 0konomi og Konjunkturudikling 200, rue de la Loi 1049 Bruxelles

4 ECONOMC RECOVERY N THE COMMUNTY With the gradual return of confidence to the economic agents, influenced by the measures to stimulate demand implemented by most of the Member States, the recoery in economic actiity, which became apparent during last summer, continued during the autumn. Howeer, at the end of 1975 total production in the Community had scarcely reached the leel of the end of the preious year, which was itself considerably below the peak reached in the middle of Despite signs of improement in some Member States, the employment situation remains difficult, principally :because of the persistent weakness of busined inestment demand. 1 The results of the latest business surey carried out among heads of industrial enterprises cnnfirm the continued general improement in the outlook for production in the coming months. ThL cautious assessments made on order books and the leel of stocks of finished products gie the impression that the size of the recoery will be limited, howeer. This is borne out by the likelihood of only a moderate re i al in world trade and a slight easing of domestic inflation. The forecast deelopments should, howeer, result in a growth of more than 3% in real gross domestic product in 1976 for the whole Community, against a decrease of some 2 Y2% in As regards the employment situation, it appears that a decline in unemployment can only occur ery gradually, and with noticeable lags between countries and sectors. Brussels, 3 February 1976 fixed DET KONJUNKTURELLE OPSVNG F!ELLESSKABET Med den tiltagende genskabelse aftilliden blandt de 0konomiske beslutningstagere og under indflydelse af de foranstaltninger til stimulering af eftersp0rgselen, som ble taget ide fleste medlemslande, er det opsing i den 0konomiske aktiitet, som aftegnede sig i l0bet af sommeren, fortsat i eften1rsmanederne. Den samlede produktion i Frellesskabet har ed udgangen af 1975 dog knapt naet nieauet fra foregaende arsskifte og la resentlig under nieauet fra det konjunkturelle h0jdepunkt i midten af Pa trods af de tegn pa forbedring, som har ist sig i isse medlemslande, er beskreftigelsessituationen forbleet anskelig, isrer under indflydelse af den fortsat sage inesteringstilb0jelighed blandt irksomhederne. Resultaterne af de seneste konjunkturrundsp0rger, som er foretaget hos irksomhedsledere i industrien, bekrrefter den fortsatte og mere udbredte forbedring af udsigterne for produktionen ide nrermeste maneder. De forsigtige bed0mmelser med hensyn til ordrebeholdningerne og frerdigarelagrene ader dog formode, at opsingets styrke forblier begrrenset. Denne urdering bestyrkes af den kendsgerning, at der kun kan regnes med et behersket opsing i erdenshandelen sael som en kun ringe afsrekkelse af inflationen indenfor Frellesskabet. Den forentede udikling skulle dog for Frellesskabet som helhed i 1976 kunne indebrere en mrengdemressig stigning i bruttonationalproduktet pa mere end 3%, mod et fald pa ca. 2 Yl% i For sa idt angar situationen pa arbejdsmarkedet, synes en genopsugning af arbejdsl0sheden kun at ille ske meget langsomt og med resentlige forskydninger lande og sektorer imellem. Bruxelles, den 3. februar 1976.

5 A NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON 1970 = 100 Unadjusted 150 CE EG EC lkke scbsonkorrigerede tal 150 Adjusted indices SCBsonkorrigerede tal CE EG EC M A M A 0 N 0 90 F M A M A 0 N D The recoery of industrial production in the Community as a whole gathered pace in Noember, with the seasonally adjusted index more than 3% up on the preious month. While the improement has been general, it has been strongest in the Benelux countries and in Germany. The main reason is the end to the rundown of stocks, particularly of producer goods, in an increasing number of industries n addition, the reial in demand for consumer durables, especially priate and commercial ehicles, was continuing: new ehicle registrations in Noember were 16% higher than a year earlier and exports rose by 4%. Similarly, the upturn in priate consumers demand for semidurables (clothing, textiles) had a significant influence on production. Although, generally speaking, demand for fixed inestment remained slack, the incenties introduced in a number of member countries produced an improement in the trend of new orders for light plant and machinery and also in the building industry. ndustriproduktionens opadgaende tendens forstrerkedes i noember for Frellesskabet som helhed. Det sresonkorrigerede indeks er steget med mere end 3% sammenlignet med den foregaende maned. Sel om forbedringen er generel, harden dog reret kraftigst i Beneluxlandene og i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland. Den kan resentligst forklares af lagernedskreringernes oph0r i flere betydende sektorer, isrer for produktionsgoder. Desuden er opsinget i eftersp0rgselen efter arige forbrugsgoder, isrer hiler til priat og erhersmressig brug, bleet bekrreftet: antallet af nyindregistreringer la i noember 16% h0jere end aret f0r, og eksporten steg med 4%. Ligeledes har forbedringen af husholdningernes efterspmgsel efter forbrugsgoder sasom beklredning og tekstiler haft en betydelig indflydelse pa produktionsprogrammerne. Sel om eftersp0rgslen efter faste inesteringsgoder generelt er forbleet sag, har de stimulerende pairkninger, der er bleet foretaget i isse medlemsstater f0rt til en forbedring i tilgangen af ordrer pa maskiner og andet lettere produktionsudstyr samt inden for byggeirksomhed.

6 NDUSTRAL PRODUCTON NDUSTRPRODUKTON A 1970 = 100 Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal Danmark ltalia _ Belgique Belgie 150 Luxembourg United Kingdom < = _,...,. K 1..._.....,. b lr7" ", """"",,_ "" f h " : t r.... """,? r Adjusted indices Scesonkorrigerede tal f BR Deutschland 150 t reland France Nederland ;:> _.,._ r..._ L1,. r 0 1=00::: ;? "" ""... ""... V" J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M A ill J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0

7 A2 UNEMPLOYMENT ANTAL ARBEJDSL0SE (thousands) (i tusinde) ; J lo 300 _, """ 1==...,... _, "......,...1""" rl....,., i,..,.....,..,. "7,,..L ::::::;::.::::::,... " _, ".., f, Oanmark B R Deutschland _France ltalia reland Nederland BelgiqueBelgie nit Kigdm ll7.,,, "... ",,.,,! j J J FM AM J J AS 0 H D J FM AM J J A 50 H D J FM AM J J AS 0 H OJ FM AM J J AS 0 H D " After reaching a record leel in September, the seasonally adjusted number of wholly unemployed in the Community, despite a further large rise in the United Kingdom, showed a slight downward tendency until the end of the year, when the unemployment rate was about 4.3%, compared with 4.5% three months earlier. This tendency was particularly marked in Germany and the Netherlands, but was also eident in France and Belgium. Een in taly, the figures from the Ministry of Labour suggest a leelling out in the seasonally adjusted number of wholly unemployed in Noember. The improement in the unemployment statistics must be treated with caution. While it was no doubt influenced by the upturn in actiity in seeral industries, it may also owe something to the good weather in the autumn, as well as to some of those out of work (especially among women and migrant workers) ceasing to register as unemployed. Moreoer, the aailable statistics on shorttime working show a further increase in Germany, France and taly. The seasonally adjusted number of unfilled acancies showed little if any tendency to rise, except in Germany and Belgium. Efter at hae naet sit h0jeste nieau i september iste den samlede sresonkorrigerede arbejdsl0shed i Frelles kabet derefter en sagt faldende tendens indtil arets slutning pa trods af en ny kraftig stigning i Det forenede Kongerige. Arbejdsl0shedsprocenten ar saledes 4,3% mod 4,5% tre maneder f0l Denne tendens ble srerlig fremhreet i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland Pg i Nederlandene, men den registreredes ligeledes i Frankrig og Belgien. Sel i talien kulle der, if0lge tallene fra arbejdsministeriet, hae fundet en stabilisering sted i det sresonkorrigerede an tal arbejdsl0se i noember maned. Den forbedring, som statistikkerne oer arbejdsl0se iser, skal urderes med forsigtighed : ganske ist afspejler den aktiitetsopsinget i flere industrisektorer, men det er muligt, at den ogsa delis gier udtryk for irkningerne af de gunstige ejrforhold, der konstateredes i efteraret, ligesom i sse kategorier af arbejdsl0se (isrer kinder og immigrerede arbejdstagere) friilligt har trukket sig tilbage fra registreringslisterne_ Desuden iser de statistikker, der er til radighed, edmrende antallet af personer pa arbejdsfordeling pa ny en stigning i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland, i Frankrig og i talien. For sa idt angar ubesatte ledige pladser har det sresonkorrigerede antal nreppe ist tegn til stigning undtagen i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland og Belgien _

8 CONSUMER PRCES BR Deutschland France lt1lia BelgiqueBelgii Luxembourg """ _..?. _.,.... : ; FORBRUGERPRSER,_,.,,..."",. Monthly ariations in % Manedlig rendring i % A Dan mark reland Nederland United Kingdom r; _......,.,. === _. _,,.... j _... _.. "" _,.,....,...,_. r l J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N D J FM AM J J AS 0 N D At the end of 1975, as eer since the middle of the year, consumer prices in the Community were rising at a generally less rapid pace than earlier. Howeer, the upward moement now seems to hae slowed down to a lower limit, corresponding for the Community as a whole, to a monthtomonth change, expressed at an annual rate, of nearly 0%. This rate remains a source of concern, all the more because the influence of demand on the production process is only weak and because the dispersion between the arious national rates of increa e has een tended to widen. These differences would appear to be found mostly in the prices of foodstuffs and manufactured products. Between December 1974 and December 1975, the aerage rate of consumer price increases in the Community as a whole was of the order of 11 Y2%, ranging from 4.3% in Denmark to almost 25% in the United Kingdom. Between the end of 1973 and the end of 1974, the aerage rate of increase had been almost 15%, ranging from about 6% in Germany to 24.5% in taly. slutningen af 1975 oplede Fc.ellesskabet fortsat, som siden begyndelsen af andet halar, stigningstakter for forbrugerpriserne, som generelt synes relatit sage sammenlignet med den tidligere udikling. Afsc.ekkelsen i prisernes c.ekst synes imid1ertid fra nu af at c.ere naet et bundnieau, der for Fc.ellesskabet som helhed sarer til en stigning takt pa omkring 0% pr. ar. Denne forblier sa meget des to mere foruroligende som eftersp0rgselen kun ud0er et sagt pres pa produktionsapparatet og som spredningen i prisudiklingen fra land til land endog synes at hae tendens til at blie st0rre. Disse forskelle synes i h0jere grad at koncentrere sig om priserne pa isse f0dearer og pa forarbejdede produkter. For Fc.ellesskabet som helhed har den gennemsnitlige stigning i forbrugerpriserne mellem december 1974 og december 1975 c.eret af en st0rrelsesorden pa 11,5%; den dc.ekker oer stigninger, der gar fra 4,3" 0 i Danmark til tc.et ed 25% i Det forenede Kongerige. Mellem slutningen af 1973 og slutningen af 1974 ar stigningen i gennemsnit teet ed 15 0, idet de ekstreme ariationer gik fra 6% i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland til 24,5 o i ltalien.

9 A4 BALANCE OF TRADE HANDELSBALANCE Mio Eur l l 1 r Danmark BR Deutschland Nederland UEBL _.&=,... ". 7 :, V" A _1 """=. c=j V.._. z e c.. ""E "...:: r _ r...,... l!!iil. r..._... 7" 1... d "..._ """ "" 1600 CE EG EC France 1800 reland ltalia United Kingdom " rn..., V" M., A 1.. """ """" J A J. 1 rv KL L rot V Joo"" J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 J F M AM J J AS 0 N OJ F M AM J J AS 0 N D J F M AM J J AS 0 N 0 n the year 1975 there was a substantial improement in the Communitys trade balance compared with Howeer, most of the reduction in the Communitys deficit occurred during the latter part of 1974 and the early months of 1975 when imports in most member countries declined sharply; since a t summer these has been a tendency for the balance to deteriorate slightly as trade, especially imports, has tarted to recoer. According to preliminary estimates and on a monthly aerage basis, the trade deficits of taly and the United Kingdom both narrowed by orne Eur 500 million in 1975 compared with the preious year, and in France there was a reduction in the trade deficit of almost Eur 350 million. reland, the Netherlands and Denmark all achieed an improement oer the same period ranging up to Eur 60 million, but in the BelgoLuxembourg Economic Union the trade deficit widened a little. Germany was the only member country in trade surplus throughout 1974 and 1975, but the large fall in it exports experienced in 1975 led to a reduction in the monthly aerage trade surplus between the two years of some Eur 350 million. For the Community as a whole the monthly deficit on its trade with nonmember countries narrowed by more than Eur 000 million in l0bet af aret 1975 skete der en betydelig forbedring af Frelle kabets handel balance sammenlignet med Nedgangen i Frellesskabets underskud ar kraftigst i sidste haldel af 1974 og i l0bet af de f0rste mmeder af 1975, da importen i de fleste medlemslande faldt strerkt. Siden sommeren 1975 har der reret en tendens til en sag forringelse af handelsbalancen, efterhanden som handelen begyndte at tiltage, hilket i te ig relatit kraftigere for Frellesskabets import end for dets ek port. henhold til forel0bige sk0n udtrykt i manedlige gennemsnit fa1dt bade taliens og Det forenede Kongerige handelsunderskud med ca. EUR 500 mio i 1975 sammenlignet med aret f0r, o i Frankrig ar der tale om en nedgang i handelsunderskuddet pa nresten EUR 350 mio. r1and, Nederlandene og Danmark opnaede aile en forbedring i l0bet af am me periode pa indtil EUR 60 mio. Til gengreld er underskuddet pa handelsbalancen inden for Den belgiskluxembourg ke 0konomiske Union fomget en smule. Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland ar det eneste medlem land, som hade oer kud pa handelsbalancen gennem 1974 og 1975, men det kraftige fald i eksporten, som indtraf i 1975, f0rte til en nedgang i det gennemsnitlige maned1ige handelsoer kud fra det ene ar til det andet pa ca. EUR 350 mio. For Frellesskabet set under et faldt det manedlige underskud pa handelen med ikkemedlemslande med mere end EUR 000 mio i 1975.

10 _, EXPORTS to nonmember countries EKSPORT til ikkemedlemslande CE EG EC Dan mark BR Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland UEBL United Kingdom _ Mio Eur to......=... ==.. == "... _... _, ,.,!"" r "" _,.,.... t...,.,.....; t..._ " """".....,.... " _....,.!...,_... "!... t" r t _, _.], "" 1" l 1 1 J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 J FM AM J J AS 0 N OJ FM AM J J AS 0 N 0 The alue of Community exports to nonmember countries has started to increase again ince last summer. Howeer, in spite of the additional stimulus brought about by the recoery in the USA and Canada, the upward moement in exports was rather limited, especially in olume terms. n fact demand from statetrading countries and nonoil deeloping countries slowed down. n addition. sales to OPEC countries, after haing risen ery rapidly ince the beginning of 1974, recorded slower growth in recent months; this could be due to problems with transport and congestion in the ports of the OPEC countries, but may already reflect some genuine slowing in the rise in demand from these countries. Recent trends in German exports showed these general tendencies, but in the United Kingdom the growth of exports in the fourth quarter was not only sustained by the demand from industrialized countries but al o by sales to the nonoilproducing deeloping countries. On the other hand, the recent weakness of French sales contrasts with the rather strong performance of talian exports. For the other member countries the decline in exports seems to hae halted and growth may hae been resumed in the last few months. V<erdien af Fcellesskabets eksport til ikkemedlemslande har <eret stigende igen siden sommeren Til trods for den yderligere stimulerende irkning, som udgik fra op inget i USA og Canada, ar eksportfremgangen imidlertid ret begrcenset, iscer i mcengdemcessig henseende. Faktisk registreredes der en aftagende eftersp0rgsel fra statshandelslande og ikkeo lieproducerende udiklingslande. Desuden er der efter en meget kraftig cekst siden midten af 1974 regi treret en langsommere cekst i salget til OPECandene i de sene te maneder ; dette kan eentuelt skyldes transportproblemer og ophobning i hanene i OPECandene, men kan ogsa allerede af pejle en reel aftagende tendens i stigpingen i eftersp0rgslen fra disse ande. Den seneste udikling for den tyske eksport iste disse tendenser. Til gengceld ble ceksten i eksporten for Det forenede Kongeriges edkommende i fjerde kartal ikke alene baret oppe af eftersp0rgslen fra de industrialiserede ande, men ogsa af salg til ikkeolieproducerende udiklingslande. Pa den anden side star den seneste tids be kedne franske afscetning i modscetning til den meget kraftige fremgang for den italienske eksport. de 0rige medlemslande ynes eksportnedgangen at cere bragt til oph0r, og der er formentlig noteret fremgang igen i de sene te maneder.

11 82 TRADE BETWEEN MEMBER COUNTRES HANDEL MELLEM MEDLEMSLANDENE L cl G E Danmark BR Deutschland France reland ltalia Nederland UEBL United Kingdom Basis : imports Mio Eur = Basis: import ,_ ,... _, """ s l "" r ",.. tj6 _..... _l.,o,""..., r,[.... r... """" "" "" r r,_! J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND The beginning of a recoery in trade between member countries, signs of which were in eidence during the summer months, has been confirmed in most countries by the growth in trade since September, accompanying the upturn in domestic demand and actiity within the Community as a whole. There may, howeer, hae been some temporary slowing in the expansion of trade between the six original members of the Community and the three new members in the final months of 1975, due to the postponement of some transactions in adance of the fourth 20% cut in customs duties between these two groups of countries on 1 January n Fra nce domestic demand has continued its recoery and imports hae been growing considerably faster in recent months than during the summer ; French exports to other member countries hae remained relatiely stagnant in alue terms. n Germany imports, especially of consumer goods and food, hae increased steadily, and there hae also been rises in the imports from other member countries of taly and the United Kingdom. Denmark and reland, on the other hand, hae only recprded ery slight increases in recent months. Begyndelsen til et opsing i handelen mellem medlemslandene, som der kunne ses tegn pa i l0bet af sommermanederne, er i de Oeste ande bleet bekrreftet i eptember maned under indoydelse af fremgangen i den indenlandske eftersp0rgsel og aktiiteten inden for Frellesskabet som helhed. Der kan imidlertid hae reret tale om en is midlertidig aftagende tendens i fomgelsen af handelen mellem de seks oprindelige og de tre nye medlemmer af Frellesskabet gennem de sidste ma neder af 1975 som f0lge af en udskydelse af nogle transaktioner forud for den fjerde 20% nedsrettelse aftoldsatserne mellem disse to grupper aflande pr.. januar Frankrig har opgangen i den indenlandske eftersp0rgsel fortsat, og importen er steget betydeligt hurtigere i de seneste maneder end i sommermanederne; den franske eksport til andre medlemslande har nreppe rendret sig i rerdimressig henseende. Tyskland er importen, isrer af forbrugsgoder of f0dearer, steget st0 t, og for ltaliens og Det forenede Kongeriges edkommende har der ogsa reret tale om stigende import fra de 0rige medlemslande. Til gengreld har Danmark og rland kun registreret meget beskedne stigninger i de seneste maneder.

12 DSCOUNT RATE AND CALL MONEY RATES DSKONTOSATS OG PENGEMARKEDSRENTE R _; 19(41 f r+,_r++.+1 BR Deutschland France 14 reland United Kingdom :.!.. +,:": i:.... i l: + 12rttrtrr t1i_ :t._ ri:_ =_ i Lt.. : tr1: itr !!!l!.L::. * :_[ H1"., r...t :lr.. 9rntJjt4ltilr J, t jr.r.... s+4,.=.. : hl..... : : J;. :. _ 4+ 7 _, ++;= r=+=r4 6 1 Jr.... L... r,.. _ t 5,.;_. :..: :::... 4F rlr, 3 = : t 2 LLLL l 11,,...,. Dan mark 10 ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie JA S OHD JFM A MJ JA S O H D JF MAM J J A S O N D JFMAMJJAS O H D During the closing months of 1975, the decline of shortterm interest rates in the Community countries had generally come to a halt, leaing them at a low leel. Seasonal pressures at the end of the year were not ery strong this time. n December 1975 discount rates in the Community aeraged 7. 1% and call money rates about 7%, compared with 9.5% and 10% in December n the United Kingdom, howeer, there was a tendency for interest rates to fall from Noember onwards; by the end of January the Bank of Englands minimum lending rate had been lowered in seen steps from 12% to 10%. This policy was helped by the new round of interest rate cuts started in the United States and other nonmember countries. n the Netherlands too the discount rate was cut from 4.5% to 4%, from 2 February. On the same date on the other hand, the discount rate in taly was raised from 6% to 7% because of the fall in the lira. Banks in the Community generally continued to hold considerable liquidity reseres. de seneste maneder af 1975 oph0rte i det store og hele faldet ide kortfristede rentesatser i fcellesskablandene pa det naede lae nieau. Den scedanlige scesonmcessige spcending ed a rsskiftet har denne gang ceret ucesentlig. december 1975 udgjorde den gennemsnitlige pengemarkedsrente i Fcellesskabet ca. 7% ogden gennemsnitlige diskontosats 7, %. De tilsarende satser for december 1974 ar henholdsis 0 og 9,5%. Det forenede Kongerige iste sig dog en tendens til fald i rentesatserne siden noember Fra da af og indtil slutningen af januar scenkede Bank of England mindsteudla nssatsen i sy trin fra 12 til 10%. Gennemf0relsen af denne politik lettedes efter at De forenede Stater og andre tredjelande hade indledt en ny rentescenkningsrunde. Ligeledes ble diskontosatsen i Nederlandene sat ned fra 4,5 ti l 4% med irkning fra 2. februar. Derimod hceede talien fra samme dato diskontosatsen fra 6 til 7% pa grund af faldet i liren. det store og hele rader bankerne Fcellesskabet fortsat oer betydelige likiditetsreserer.

13 84 MONEY SUPPLY (annual change) PENGEFORSYNNG (arlig rendring) % Danmark BR Deutschland France Belgique Belgie, 7,......,. i Y...,...f " 1,, i ;l! r 9 lj t t> L.1.. <.. reland ltalia _ Nederland _ 25 _United Kingdom _ A K " K "..., r... 1, f ::::::_..._... r ", 1"! r,...., " "... JJ 1 VJ lf 1 r ;. J _,. li _1..1 JFMAMJJASONO J FMAMJ J ASONO JASONO J F M A M J J A S 0 N 0 n some member countries Denmark, reland and Germany the igorous growth in money supply (notes and coin in circulation and sight deposits) gathered additional momentum in the closing months of Goernment demand for credit in general continued to be the main factor ; in Germany, howeer, there was also a sharp increase in priate demand for credit. On 18 December 1975 the Deutsche Bundesbank announced that it planned to hold the 1976 aerage increase in the monetary base to 8%. n the United Kingdom, with priate demand for credit again weaker, monetary expansion slowed down. On 19 January 1976 the Bank of England lowered special deposits from 3% to 2%. t also iss ued new recommendations concerning the preference to be gien to important sectors under banks lending policy. n connection with the mediumterm financial assistance granted to taly, the Council set a ceiling of Lit million on the growth of total lending in 1976, which corresponds to a rate of increase of a lmost 20%. n France the quantitatie restrictions on the growth of bank lending were extended to the end of June 976; the maximum rates of growth which hae been fixed will hae little restraining influence. Den hurtige rekst i pengemrengden (sedler og m0 nt i oml0b og indesdiende pa anfordring) er tiltaget yderligere i nogle medlemslande Danmark, rland, Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland ide sidste maneder af almindelighed ar det offentli ges krediteftersp0rgsel bestemmende for udidelsen af pengemrengden ; i Forbundsrepublikken Tyskland er den priate krediteftersp0rgsel dog ogsa tiltaget strerkt. Deutsche Bundesbank har den 18. december bekendtgjort, at den for 1976 sigter mod en gennemsnitlig rekst pa 8% for centralbankens pengemrengde. Det forenede Kongerige er udidelsen af pengemrengden aftaget om f0 lge af, at den priate kreditefter s prgsel igen er srekket. Bank of England srenkede den 19. januar satsen for de yderligere mindstereserer (special deposits) fra 3% til 2%. Desuden, rendrede den reglerne edmrende prioritering af igtige sektorer ed ti ldelingen af bankkreditter. sammenhceng med den finansielle bistand pa mellemlang sigt, som er ydet ta lien, ha r Radet for den samlede italienske kreditudidelse i l0bet af 1976 fastsat mrd. lire som 0erste grrense, hilket sarer til t <:et ed 20%. Frankrig er de kantitatie gegrrensninger for foregel en af bankkreditterne bleet forlanget til udgangen af juni 1976 : de maksimale ti lrekstrater som er fastsat betyder nreppe nogen begransning.

14 EXCHANGE RATES (weighted change in % since December 1971) VEKSELKURSER (ejet rendring i % i forhold til december 1971) 85 % Dan mark B R Deutschland France reland ltalia 25 Nederland UEBL BLEU United Kingdom , _, r B7..., l V f ;;... "",, h 1. _., Ff 1? + " t.fl. 1 ) _( h 1..,,_ V "!.""" _, _.,.,_, ) ",... ll,..., k, """... t, " " r. J... " t _ 1 JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOND JFMAMJJASOHD After a long period of relatie stability, January saw unrest return to the Communitys foreign exchange markets. n mid January the lira came under increased pre ure, and on 21 January the Banca dltalia suspended official foreign exchange dealing. During the rest of January the weighted exchange rate for the lira dropped by some 8%. n the wake of the lira crisis the French franc fell to the lower interention point in the Community exchange rate system, so that interention under the ystem by the monetary authorities was required again for the first time in seeral months. The effectie exchange rates of the other Community currencie except the guilder eased slightly. Efter en lang periode med relati stabilitet harder i januar igen re ret uro pa Frellesskabet alutamarkeder. midten af januar forstrerkedes presset mod liren, og den 21. januar suspenderede Banca d talia sine interentioner pa alutamarkedet. l0bet af den resterende del af januar forringedes den ejede lirekurs med ca. 8%. k0landet pa krisen omkring liren faldt kursen paden franske franc til det nedre interentionspunkt inden for det frelles alutakurssystem, horefter det for f0rste gang gennen tlere maneder igen ble n0dendigt for alutamyndighederne at interenere in den for dette system. De effektie ekselk urser pa de 0rige frellesskabsalutaer bortset fra gylden har udi t en mindre stigning.

15 RESULTS OF THE BUSNESS SURVEY 1 ) OF COMMUNTY NDUSTRY RESULTATER AF KONJUNKTURUNDERS0GELSEN 1 ) NDUSTRSEKTOREN FJELLESSKABET + 40 %of answers % af sar Total orderbooks Bedommelse af den samlede ordrebeholdning , 6 ::;,... " 7 CE EG EC BR Deutschla nd France ltalia Nederland Belgique Belgie= reland! TT,_. _., if LA 1 r V"" u 7 JFMAMJJAS 0 N D f,.... L " N.. r " 1 1. tf b;..j ""7""T J F M A M J J A S 0 N D J F M A M J J A S Assessment of stocks of finished goods Bedommelse af f rerdigarelagre_ 0 N 0: JFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND 1 ) Excluding construction, food, beerages and tobacco. 1 ) Ekskusie bygge og anlcegsirksomhed, ncerings og nydelsesmiddelindustri.

16 Expectations : production Produktionsforentninger %of answers %at sar 30 Graphs and 0: show businessmens iews of their total orderbooks and their stocks of(inished goods, represented as threemonth moing aerages of the aif.ference between the percentage of those who find them "aboe normal" ( +) and the percentage of those who find them "below normal" (). Graph m shows threemonth. moing aerages of the difference (as percentage of replies) between the number of businessmen who expected production to be up ( +) and those who expected it to be down (). The table below shows businessmens assessments of their total orderbooks, foreign orderbooks and stocks of finished goods during the last three months, ( +) being aboe normal, ( =) being normal, () being below normal. t also shows whether.. they expect the following three or four months to bring an increase ( +), no change ( =) or decrease () in their production and in their selling prices. Diagrammerne og 0: gengier tre maneders gidende gennemsnit af forskelsardien melem irksomhedsledernes sar >>sterre«( +) og»mindre«() edrerende ordrebestand og fardigarelagre. Diagram ll iser igeledes i form af tre maneders gidende gennemsnit forskelsardien ( procent af sarene) melem irksomhedsledernes forentninger til en»foregelse«( +) eler en»formindskelse«( : ) af produktionen. Nedenstaende tabel gengi)jer for de seneste tre rrianeder irksomhedsledernes bedemmelse af, om de samlede ordrebeholdninger, udlandsordrer og fardigarelagre ar forholdsis store ( +), nor male ( =) eer forholdsis sma (). Desuden er irksomhedsledernes forentninger om oksende ( +), nogenlunde uandrede ( =) eler aftagende () produktion og salgsprisen i de felgende tre eler fire maneder anfert. BR Deutschland France 0 N D 0 N D Total orderbooks = Den samlede ordre beholdning Export orderbooks = Den udenlandskeordrebeholdning Stocks of finished goods = F rerdigarelagre Expectations: production = Produktionsforentningerne Expectations: selling prices = Salgsprisforentninger reland talia Nederland Belgique Luxem EEC Belgie bourg E0F 0 N D 0 N D 0 N D 0 N 0 0 N D 0 N

17 Obserations on the Graphs Bemrerkninger til diagrammerne A 1 ndustrial production: indices of the S. 0.E. C., excluding construction but, except for France, including, since no , the food, drink and tobacco industries. For the deseasonalized indices, three month moing aerages. Community: estimates. reland: quarterly index. A 2 Unemployment: Three month moing aerages of the figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. France: number of persons seeking employment. taly: the cure represents the number of persons registered at labour exchanges; this does not correspond to the number of unemployed. Luxembourg: negligible. Belgium: completely unemployed persons receiing unemployment benefit. A 3 Consumer prices: ndices of the Statistical Office of the European Communities. A 1 lndustriproduktion: index ( excl. bygge og anlagsirksomhed) udarbejdet af S.K.E.F.; undtagen for Frankrigs edkommende indeholder indexet fra nr narings og nydelsesmiddelindustri. Sasonkorrigerede index fremtrader som tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Falesskabet: skon. rland: kartalsindex. A 2 Antal arbejdslose: Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit af.wesonkorrigerede tal fra Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Falesskaber. Frankrig: antal arbejdssogende. talien: kuren angier anta personer, registreret pd arbejdsanisningskontorer; dette sarer ikke til antal arbejdslose. Luxembourg: ubetydelig arbejdsloshed. Belgien: fuldtids ledige personer, som modtager arbejdsloshedsunderstottelse. A 3 Forbrugerpriser: ndeks udarbejdet af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. A4 Balance oftrade: ncluding intracommunity trade. Community: trade with nonmember countries only. Calculated on the basis of the import and export figures adjusted for seasonal ariations by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Exports fob, imports elf; excluding monetary gold. Cures for recent months may be partly based on est!mates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. A 4 Handelsbalance: nklusie handel indenfor Fallesskabet. Fallesskabet: kun handel med ikke medlemsande. Beregnet pd grundlag af tal for import og eksport sasonkorrigeret af Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Eksport fo.b., import c.if, eksklusie monetart guld. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder are deis baseret pd skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: falles kure. B 1 Exports: Seasonally adjusted alues in Eur proided by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. B1 Eksport: Sasonkorrigerede ardier i Eur udfardiget al Det statistiske Kontor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. : Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder are deis baseret pd skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: falles kure. B 2 Trade between member countries: Seasonally adjusted alues in Eur proided by the Statistical Office of the European Communities. Threemonth moing aerages. Cures for recent months may be partly based on estimates. Belgium and Luxembourg: common cure. B2 Handel mellem medlemsstaterne: Sasonkorrigerede ardier i Eur udfardiget af Det statistiske Kantor for De europaiske Fallesskaber. Tre mdneders glidende gennemsnit. Kurer kan for de seneste mdneder are deis baseret pd skon. Belgien og Luxembourg: falles kure. B3 Discount rate and call money rates: Unbroken line shows official discount rate. Dotted line shows monthly aerage of the rates for call money. n Denmark rates for call money are not published. B 3 Diskontosats og pengemarkedsrente: Ubrudt kure iser diskontosats. Punkteret kw:e iser mdnedligt gennemsnit af pengemarkedsrenten. Danmark er pengemarkedsrenten ikke o.lfentliggjort. B4 Money supply: Notes and coin in circulation and sight deposits ( excl. interbank deposits). Threemonth moing aerage of percentage change on same month of preceding year, calculated from data of the SO EC. B4 Pengeforsyning: Seddel og montomlob og indskud pd anfordring..!endring i forhold til tilsarende maned foregdende ar. Tre maneders glidende gennemsnit, beregnet pd grundlag af tal fra SKEF. B 5 Exchange rates: Reference period: Washington Monetary Agreement of 18 December 1971; weighting according to structure of trade. B 5 Vekselkurser: Referenceperiode: Washingtonajialen af 18. december 1971; ejet i oeremstemmelse med handelsstruk turen. 1 Eur = (December december 1975) 3,21978 DM 3,35507 Fl 48,6572 FbFlx 7,57831 Dkr 5,55419 Ffr 845, Lit 0,612