26. februar 2016 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Efter en flad udvikling i december har detailsalget i USA vist sig fra en fornuftig side i årets første måned, og der ventes på den baggrund en stigning i privatforbruget på 0,3% m/m. Dermed vil der altså ikke være tegn på, at forbrugerne har lukket tegnebøgerne i. Interessant bliver det dog også at følge, om amerikanerne fortsat øger opsparingen i et signal om, at de sparede benzinpenge fra de lave energipriser ikke kanaliseres ud i ekstra forbrug. Opgørelsen byder også på Fed s foretrukne inflationsmål, PCE-Core, som ventes at være steget en smule fra 1,4% y/y til 1,5% y/y. Det er dog stadig et stykke under Fed s målsætning, og set i lyset af faldet i forbrugernes inflationsforventninger i University of Michigans forbrugertillidsopgørelse (som vi også får endelige tal for i dag) til det laveste niveau nogensinde opgjort, vil der formentligt fortsat være bekymringer i Fed om at de lave energipriser kan have mere længerevarende konsekvenser for inflationsudviklingen. Vi får også reviderede BNP-tal for 4. kvartal, hvor der ventes en nedjustering af den i forvejen svage vækst. Dette vil dog formentlig ikke rykke alverden ved stemningen, idet 4. kvartal allerede er afskrevet som en fuser. Der er også endnu et par Fed-taler på programmet. Fra euroområdet får vi EU-Kommissionens økonomiske barometer, hvor markedet venter et fald fra 105 til 104,3 i februar. Baseret på de nationale erhvervstillidstal vi har fået indtil videre, ser vi dog risiko for et større fald, som vil indikere, at opsvinget formentlig har tabt yderligere fart her i begyndelsen af det nye år. Vi får også tal for det franske privatforbrug i januar og så er der foreløbige forbrugerpriser fra både Frankrig og Tyskland, som begge ventes at vise fald i inflationen i februar. Konjunkturbarometrene fra Danmarks Statistik ventes at vise en faldende industritillid, på linje med hvad vi også har set i lignende indikatorer fra de lande vi handler mest med. Usikkerheden om den globale økonomi og en stærkere effektiv kronekurs ventes således at trække industritilliden ned fra -4 til -7 i februar. Baseret på den mere negative udvikling i forbrugertilliden venter vi også et fald i servicetilliden fra 10 til 7, mens vi dog ser mulighed for en svag bedring i stemningen i byggesektoren. Det samlede indtryk vil dog fortsat være, at der stadig ikke er nogen synderlig grad af optimisme med hensyn til styrken af dansk økonomi i virksomhederne. I dag skydes mødet mellem finansministrene i G20-landene i gang, som vi dog ikke venter, vil udmønte sig i konkrete koordinerede politik-tiltag. I stedet vil man formentlig forsøge at dæmpe eventuelle investorbekymringer med meldinger om, at verden ikke er på vej ud i en ny dyb krise, og at der fortsat er redskaber tilbage i det økonomisk-politiske arsenal til at øge efterspørgslen og inflationen om de kan overbevise markederne om det er så en anden sag. DK: Global usikkerhed rammer industrien Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: De europæiske aktiemarkeder tog revanche på gårsdagens store fald og endte med pæne stigninger. I USA steg aktiemarkederne ligeledes, hvor en stigning i olieprisen formentlig hjalp, muligvis trukket af meldinger om at OPEC s olieministre vil mødes i marts. Også Asien har overvejende oplevet stigende aktiemarkeder i nat. Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland faldt imidlertid, mens EUR er blevet styrket lidt over for USD. Kina: Priserne på nye boliger steg i januar i 38 ud af ud af de 70 byer der er omfattet af statistikken. Det er et lille fald fra 39 byer måneden før, men til gengæld var der kun 24 byer der oplevede prisfald mod 26 i december. Dermed er der fortsat tegn på, at de mange tiltag for at understøtte boligmarkedet har en vis effekt. USA: Antallet af nye ledige steg med 10.000 personer til 272.000. Den stigende tendens vi oplevede fra oktober og ind de første uger af 2016 ser således ud til at være bremset op. Positivt nyt var der fra ordrerne på varige goder, der steg med 4,9% m/m i januar. Selv renset for de volatile ordrer på fly, der steg med hele 54,2% m/m, var der fortsat tale om en pæn fremgang. Ordrerne på ikke-militære kapitalgoder ex. fly reboundede steg således med 3,9% m/m. Det er et positiv signal for investeringsaktiviteten, selv om faldet i afskibningerne på 0,4% m/m vidner om, at det ikke er helt slået igennem på den endelige investeringsaktivitet endnu. Der er da også fortsat en del modvinde fra de lavere olieprisers effekt på energisektoren samt den stærke USD s påvirkning af eksporten, som betyder at vi endnu ikke kan drage et lettelsens suk. At fremstillingssektoren fortsat er presset blev da også understreget af et fald i den regionale aktivitetsindikator fra Kansas Fed fra -9 til -12 i februar. Fed s Williams udtaler, at han ikke ligger alt for stor vægt på markedsbaserede opgørelser af inflationsforventningerne, samt at hvis man venter med at sætte renten op, kan det øge risikoen for at man bliver nødt til at sætte renten endnu mere op senere. Fed s Lockhart udtalte, at stigende renter vil skabe udfordringer for bankerne. EMU: M3-pengemængdevæksten steg fra 4,7% y/y til 5,0% y/y i januar, men er stadig lav i forhold til historiske standarder og konsistent med en kerneinflation der ligger under ECB s mål for den overordnede inflation. Dagens reviderede forbrugerpriser viste da også at kerneinflationen holdt sig på 1,0%, mens den overordnede inflation blev nedrevideret fra 0,4% til 0,3% i februar primært som følge af nye vægte og indeksår. Udlånsvæksten til den private sektor var også fortsat svag, og tallene peger fortsat på et pres på ECB for at lempe pengepolitikken yderligere. Tyskland: Forbrugertilliden steg overraskende fra 9,4 til 9,5 i marts. Det peger på at lave energipriser og et stærkt arbejdsmarked opvejer usikkerheden fra uroen på de finansielle markeder og bekymringer om den globale økonomis styrke. Italien: Erhvervstilliden faldt fra 103,0 til 102,0 i februar. Også forbrugertilliden og detailsalget faldt mere end ventet som peger på opbremsning i økonomien. UK: De reviderede BNP-tal for 4. kvartal viste uændret en solid vækst på 0,5% q/q. Opsvinget er dog fortsat udelukkende afhængigt af privatforbruget, mens både erhvervsinvesteringerne og nettoeksporten trak ned. Fremadrettet er der også udfordringer fra svag global vækst, strammere finanspolitik og usikkerheden i forbindelse med EU-afstemningen. Forbrugertilliden faldt fra 4 til 0 i februar det laveste siden maj 2014 - som kan være et udtryk for usikkerhed i forbindelse med risikoen for Brexit. EMU: Kreditvækst stadig svag trods ECB lempelser For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. februar 2016 Markedskommentarer Aktier Det ledende danske OMXC20 CAP (+2,21% / indeks 976,56) fulgte i går den positive udvikling som prægede børserne på hele det europæiske kontinent. Den positive stemning var hjulpet af stigende oliepriser. Herudover kom der lidt medvind på nøgletalsfronten fra USA. Således viste opgørelsen for de varige forbrugsgoder en vækst på 4,9% i januar måned, hvilket var højere end ventet. Ydermere blev den foregående måneds opgørelse oprevideret. I toppen af indekset endte Genmab (+5,58% / kurs 822,50) godt hjulpet af stærke amerikanske salgstal for januar for lægemidlet Darzalez, mod knoglemarvskræft. Det var formentligt med til, at holde liv i markedets forhåbninger om, at lægemidlet i de kommende år kan opnå en årlig indtjening i milliardklassen. Uden for det ledende C20-indeks var Simcorp (+9,19% / kurs 294,80) i hopla og var formentligt godt hjulpet af, at investeringsbanken Carnegie hævede sin anbefaling på aktien fra Hold til Køb. Renter Obligationsrenterne i Danmark og Tyskland havde pilen nedad, hvor selv pæne stigninger på aktiemarkederne ikke var nok til at ryste ved tilliden til statsobligationerne. Faldet i renterne reflekterer formentlig de store forventninger til at ECB vil annoncere nye stimulanstiltag på mødet i marts, som dagens nøgletal da heller ikke gjorde meget for at ændre ved. Inflationen i euroområdet blev således nedjusteret fra 0,4% til 0,3% i februar og de fremadrettede inflationsforventninger faldt til det laveste niveau siden januar sidste år. Endvidere viste friske tal også, at udlånsaktiviteten fortsat er svag og erhvervstilliden og detailsalget i Italien skuffede på nedsiden. Fra USA var der dog positive signaler fra både antallet af nye ledige, der trods en stigning stadig befinder sig på et solidt niveau, og ordrerne på ikke-militære kapitalgoder ex. fly viste den største månedlige stigning siden juni 2014. Det blev dog en smule opvejet af et fald i den regionale aktivitetsindikator fra Kansas Fed, der viser at fremstillingssektoren fortsat er presset. De overordnet fornuftige nøgletal fra USA kunne dog heller ikke bremse tendensen til lavere renter. I nat fik vi nogenlunde fornuftige for boligpriserne i Kina, og vi har set en stigning i olieprisen efter europæisk lukketid, som muligvis kan give anledning til lidt højere renter fra morgenstunden herhjemme om end stigningerne i de amerikanske renter var ret beskedne. Valuta EUR holdt sig relativt stabil over for USD det meste af dagen i går. Stigende forventninger til ECB lempelser ligger formentlig hånden over den fælles valuta, men der var trods herfor ikke de store svækkelser selv om både udlånstal og inflationstal fra euroområdet understøttede udsigten til yderligere lempelser. Heller ikke stærke tal for ordrerne på varige goder i USA eller fornuftige tal for antallet af nye ledige havde den store effekt. I nat blev EUR imidlertid styrket en smule over for USD uden nogen egentlig katalysator. Aktiemarkederne har dog generelt været i hopla, hvilket også fik trukket JPY svagere over for USD. GBP holdt sig nogenlunde stabilt. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP 976.6 2.21 USD/JPY 112.7 0.210 USA 1.72-0.02 CRB 162.6 0.71 Stoxx600 326.5 1.97 EUR/USD 1.106 0.003 Euroområdet 0.14-0.02 Brent oil (1M fut) 35.1 3.11 FTSE 6012.8 2.48 USD/DKK 6.748-0.021 Danmark 0.49-0.01 Gold (spot) 1238.6 0.47 S&P500 1951.7 1.13 CHF/DKK 6.829-0.014 Nasdaq 4582.2 0.87 GBP/DKK 9.429-0.008 Hang Seng 19172.0 1.50 SEK/DKK 0.796-0.002 Nikkei 16188.4 0.30 NOK/DKK 0.784 0.003 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta (Ultimo) Aktuelt Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Aktuelt Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 Aktuelt Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2016 USA 0.250 0.375 0.625 1.125 1.72 1.90 2.10 2.30 EUR/USD 1.106 1.08 1.05 0.95 Euroland 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.14 0.30 0.50 0.70 USD/JPY 112.7 115.0 120.0 126.0 UK 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.36 1.50 1.75 2.25 USD/DKK 6.749 6.91 7.10 7.84 Danmark 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.49 0.60 0.75 0.95 EUR/DKK 7.461 7.46 7.46 7.45 Sverige -0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50 0.46 0.60 0.70 0.90 SEK/DKK 0.7964 0.802 0.811 0.828 Norge 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.00 1.41 1.35 1.35 1.10 NOK/DKK 0.7841 0.777 0.785 0.784 2
Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 26. februar 2016 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 22/02/16 Simcorp 4. kvartal 23/02/16 Jyske Bank 4. kvartal 24/02/16 Solar 4. kvartal 24/02/16 Sydbank 4. kvartal 25/02/16 Per Aarsleff 4. kvartal 25/02/16 Banknordik 4. kvartal 26/02/16 NKT Holding 4. kvartal 26/02/16 Rockwool 4. kvartal Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk 22/02/16 03:00 Japan Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Feb P 52.0 -- 52.3 50.2 22/02/16 09:00 Danmark Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.3%/ -- -0.8%/0.0% 0.5%/1.0% 22/02/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Feb P 52.0 -- 52.3 51.0 22/02/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Services PMI Feb P 53.5 -- 53.6 53.0 22/02/16 10:00 EMU Markit Eurozone Composite PMI Feb P 53.3 53.0 53.6 52.7 22/02/16 12:00 UK CBI Trends Total Orders Feb -12 -- -15-17 22/02/16 14:30 USA Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Jan -0.05 -- -0.34 (r) 0.28 22/02/16 15:45 USA Markit US Manufacturing PMI Feb P 52.5 -- 52.4 51.0 22/02/16 19:00 EMU ECB's Sabine Lautenschläger Speaks in Stuttgart 22/02/16 19:00 USA NY Fed's Potter Speaks in New York 23/02/16 08:00 Tyskland GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 4Q F 0.3%/1.3% 0.3%/1.3% 0.3%/1.3% 0.3%/1.3% 23/02/16 08:45 FR Business Confidence Feb 102 -- 103 (r) 103 23/02/16 10:00 Tyskland IFO Business Climate Feb 106.8 -- 107.3 105.7 23/02/16 14:30 USA Fed's Fischer Speaks in Houston on Monetary Policy 23/02/16 14:30 EMU ECB's Danièle Nouy Speaks in London 23/02/16 15:00 USA S&P/CS 20 City SA (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.8%/5.6% -- 0.94%/5.83% 0.8%/5.74% 23/02/16 16:00 USA Consumer Confidence Index Feb 97.2 -- 97.8(r) 92.2 23/02/16 16:00 USA Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Feb 2 -- 2-4 23/02/16 16:00 USA Existing Home Sales Jan 5.40m -- 5.46m 5.47m 24/02/16 06:00 Japan Small Business Confidence Feb 47.1 -- 47.2 47.9 24/02/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Confidence Feb 97 -- 97 95 24/02/16 10:00 Italien Industrial Sales (MoM/YoY) Dec -- -- -1.1%/0.8% -1.6%/-3.0% 24/02/16 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 19. Feb -- -- 8.20% -4.3% 24/02/16 15:45 USA Markit US Services PMI Feb P 53.5 -- 53.2 49.8 24/02/16 16:00 USA New Home Sales Jan 520k -- 544k 494k 24/02/16 18:00 Frankrig Jobseekers Net Change Jan -- -- 15.8-27.9 24/02/16 19:15 USA Fed's Kaplan Speaks in Dallas 25/02/16 01:00 USA Fed's Bullard Speaks in New York 25/02/16 08:00 Tyskland GfK Consumer Confidence Mar 9.3 -- 9.4 9.5 25/02/16 09:00 Sverige Economic Tendency Survey Feb 109.1 110.1 112.1 108.4 25/02/16 10:00 EMU M3 Money Supply (YoY) Jan 4.7% -- 4.7% 5.00% 25/02/16 10:00 Italien Business Confidence Feb -- -- 103.0 102.0 25/02/16 10:30 UK GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.5%/1.9% 0.5%/1.9% 0.5%/1.9% 0.5%/1.9% 25/02/16 11:00 EMU CPI (MoM/YoY) Jan F -1.4%/0.4% --/0.2% -1.4%/0.3% 25/02/16 11:00 EMU CPI Core YoY Jan F 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 25/02/16 11:00 Italien Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Dec 0.1%/-- -- 0.2%/-0.2% -0.1%/0.6% 25/02/16 14:15 USA Fed's Lockhart to speak at Banking Conference 25/02/16 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 20. Feb 270k -- 262k 272k 25/02/16 14:30 USA Durable Goods Orders (MoM) Jan P 2.9% -- -4.6%(r) 4.9% 25/02/16 14:30 USA Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (MoM) Jan P 1.0% -- -3.7%(r) 3.9% 25/02/16 15:00 USA FHFA House Price Index (MoM) Dec 0.5% -- 0.5% 0.4% 25/02/16 17:00 USA Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity Feb -6 -- -9-12 25/02/16 18:00 USA Fed's Williams Speaks in New York 26/02/16 00:30 Japan Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) Jan 0.0% -- 0.1% 0.0% 26/02/16 01:05 UK GfK Consumer Confidence Feb 3 -- 4 0 26/02/16 02:30 Kina Property Prices Jan 26/02/16 08:45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.4%/0.0% -- -1.0%/0.2% 26/02/16 08:45 Frankrig GDP (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P 0.2%/1.3% -- 0.2%/1.3% 26/02/16 08:45 Frankrig Consumer Spending (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.6%/0.3% -- 0.7%/0.3% 26/02/16 09:30 Sverige Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) Jan 1.5%/3.7% -- -1.5%/3.4% 26/02/16 10:00 Norge Unemployment rate Feb 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 26/02/16 11:00 EMU Economic Confidence Feb 104.3 -- 105.0 26/02/16 14:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb P 0.5%/0.1% -- -0.8%/0.5% 26/02/16 14:30 USA Advance Goods Trade Balance Jan -$61.200b -- -$61.513b 26/02/16 14:30 USA GDP Annualized (QoQ) 4Q S 0.4% -- 0.7% 26/02/16 16:00 USA Personal Spending (MoM) Jan 0.3% -- 0.0% 26/02/16 16:00 USA PCE Core (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.2%/1.5% -- 0.0%/1.4% 26/02/16 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Feb F 91.0 -- 90.7 26/02/16 16:15 USA Fed's Powell Discusses Fed Communication 26/02/16 19:30 USA Fed's Brainard Speaks on International Policy Synchronization 26/02/16 19:30 EMU ECB's Peter Praet Speaks on Panel in New York 26-27 Feb G20 G20 Finance Ministers Meeting in Shanghai Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3
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