Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Danmark 7. marts 2012 Vigtigste begivenheder Markederne: Stemningen på aktiemarkederne forsures og der sker store kursfald tirsdag, især i Europa som viser største fald siden slut november. Det var ellers en stille dag mht. økonomiske begivenheder. Renterne følger med sydover og JPY og USD styrkes og råvarepriserne falder. Asien fortsætter den negative stemning, men de amerikanske aktiefutures peger lidt op til morgen. EMU: BNP-væksten blev som ventet bekræftet på -0,3% k/k i 4. kvartal. Grækenland: Grækenland advarer om at der ikke vil være midler til at betale forpligtelser til investorer der ikke deltager i gældsombytning. Dagen i dag byder på ADP-beskæftigelsesopgørelse fra USA, hvorfra der også kommer realkreditansøgninger. Ellers vil der fortsat være fokus på græsk gældsombytning samt lidt fokus på tyske fabriksordrer. Dagens vigtigste begivenheder Højdepunkter siden sidst Tirsdagen var meget fattig på vigtige økonomiske nøgletal, men vi modtog dog den reviderede BNP-opgørelse for 4. kvartal i euroområdet. Det blev som ventet bekræftet at væksten at BNP faldt med 0,3% fra 3. kvartal. Ikke desto mindre var det da interessant, at se underkomponenterne i regnskabet, som viste et større end ventet fald i privatforbrug og i faste investeringer. Eksporten faldt også, men blev overgået af et endnu større fald i importen Nettoeksporten bidrog således positivt til BNP-væksten med 0,5%-point, hvilket er en svag baggrund da det blot understreger den svage indenlandske efterspørgsel. Selvom der har været visse stabiliseringstegn i konjunkturbarometrene de seneste par Tysk industri ventes at stabilisere sig efter nedtur faste priser, Indeks (2005=100) 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Industriproduktion Nye ordrer Source: Reuters EcoWin Dagen i dag byder på lidt mere interessant økonomiske begivenheder end i går, men man må stadig sige at torsdag og fredag på papiret er mere interessante. Fra USA modtager vi i dag et nyt fingerpeg om situationen på arbejdsmarkedet, da den alternative beskæftigelsesopgørelse fra ADP for februar offentliggøres. ADPopgørelsen har ligesom de mere officielle tal peget på stærk vækst i beskæftigelsen gennem de seneste måneder. Som altid skal man dog passe på med at tillægge opgørelsen alt for stor vægt, da ADP eksempelvis pegede den modsatte vej i beskæftigelsesfremgangen i forhold til arbejdsmarkedsrapporten. Det er dog klart, at en vækst på lige over 200.000 personer i den private beskæftigelse som der ventes i februaropgørelsen, ville være et kærkomment signal fra arbejdsmarkedet. Usikkerheden omkring tallet er dog stor, ikke mindst fordi vi også får den årlige revision af tallene. Der kan eventuelt være en lille smule opmærksomhed på realkreditansøgningerne for sidste uge i USA. Disse faldt endnu en gang i forrige uge, men det skyldtes fald i refinansieringer, mens ansøgninger i forbindelse med boligkøb steg med det meste i seks uger, hvilket dog kun løftede dem en smule bort fra niveauet tæt på bundrekord i nyere tid (siden 1996). Det understreger, at boligomsætningen fortsat er under pres (især på nybyggede boliger). Derudover kan der komme en smule fokus på tyske fabriksordrer for januar, især efter at industrien har været noget på hælene i slutningen af 2011, hvor industriproduktionen i december udviste et chok-fald, der ikke er set større siden finanskrisens højdepunkt i januar 2009. Fabriksordrerne har sammen med PMI-indekset dog tegnet et billede af en stabilisering på det sidste, om end der bestemt ikke har været tale et decideret vendingstegn (se dagens figur). Således ventes væksten i fabriksordrerne at falde lidt tilbage igen i januar, men dog stadig være stigende. Endelig vil der fortsat være fokus på nyheder og rygter i forbindelse med det videre forløb i den græske gældsombytning (PSI), selvom vi sandsynligvis må vente helt til fredag for at få det endelige resultat at vide. Dog kan mangel på succes eventuelt vise sig før så intet nyt er som udgangspunkt godt nyt. måneder pegede BNP-tallenes bredt baserede fald altså fortsat på svagheder i 1. kvartal. I Grækenland nærmer deadline (i morgen) for gældsombytningen sig, og det er tydeligt at nervøsiteten er stigende om hvorvidt den ønskede deltagelse på 90% af de private investorer kommer i mål, og det kan kaldes en succes. Der fremkom nye rygter om en mulig udskydelse af deadline, rygter der dog senere blev afvist. Derudover fremkom det græske offentlige gældsadministrationskontor (Public Debt Management Agency) i går med en advarsel/trussel om, at landets økonomiske program ikke indeholder midler til at fortsætte betalinger til private kreditorer som ikke deltager i gældsombytningen. 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 Faste priser, Indeks (2005=100) Analytikere: Jes Asmussen, +45 4679 1203, jeas01@handelsbanken.dk, Rasmus Gudum, +45 4679 1619, ragu02@handelsbanken.dk, Thomas Haugaard, +45 4679 1229, thje01@handelsbanken.dk Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale.
Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 (-2,50% / indeks 443,68) og OMXC (- 2,44% / indeks 368,87) endte begge i negativt territorium grundet øget nervøsitet om hvorvidt det lykkedes Grækenland at få en aftale på plads mellem staten af de private investorer inden fredag. I bunden af indekset endte Vestas (-5,92% / kurs 54,05) efter rygter om, at det japanske selskab Mitsubishi Heavy Industries meget vel vil kunne overhale Vestas med udviklingen af en vindmølle på 7,0 MW. Andre industritunge aktier som FLSmidth & Co. (-4,88% / kurs 415,20) og A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-3,82% / kurs 43.360,00) oplevede massive kursfald grundet fornyet frygt blandt investorerne. Samme tendens sås hos samtlige banker, som var yderst presset, hvor Danske Bank (-4,62% / kurs 93,00), Sydbank (- 4,25% / kurs 101,50) og Nordea (-4,01% / kurs 51,40) alle endte i negativt territorium. Regnskabsaktuelle Topdanmark (-1,01% / kurs 928,00), fremlagde et årsregnskab for 2011, hvor resultatet på 1.023 mio. kr. var bedre end ventet. Dette var især på grund et fjerde kvartal, hvor indtjeningen endte med et plus på 350 mio. kr. mod forventede 300 mio. kr. I den anden ende af indekset endte Carlsberg (+0,00% / kurs 450,80) som den eneste aktie i eliteindekset uden noget kursfald efter meddelelsen om, at de vil afnotere deres russiske bryggeri Baltika, uanset hvad resultatet bliver af det ventede frivillige indløsningstilbud til Baltikas ørige aktionærer. Renter Tirsdag var på forhånd udset til at blive en stille dag på finansmarkederne i mangel på rigtig vigtige økonomiske begivenheder. Ikke desto mindre var der tale om en negativ præget stemning, som gav sig til udtryk i faldende aktiekurser og faldende obligationsrenter i sikre nationer som USA, Tyskland og Danmark. Den mere negative stemning hentede sandsynligvis inspiration fra usikkerheden om succesen i den græske gældsombytning i denne uge, hvor spekulationerne om resultatet er mange, herunder om det ender ud i en ufrivillig restrukturering af græsk gæld. At den negative stemning hentede input fra gældskrisen kunne blandt andet aflæses i at spanske og italienske renter trak opad og dermed udvidede spændet til Tyskland. Derudover modtog vi en revision af BNP-væksten i euroområdet i 4. kvartal sidste år. Selvom revisionen fastholdt den negative vækst på 0,3% k/k, gav de medfølgende detaljer om underkomponenterne ikke umiddelbart anledning til øget optimisme fremadrettet. Tirsdagens stor fald på aktiemarkederne betød risk-off -dag på valutamarkederne, som ellers ikke modtog de store nye økonomiske input. Således synes især bekymringerne om Grækenland og den igangværende gældsombytningsproces at have betydning, og EUR blev svækket pænt. Således florerede der rygter om at PSI-deltagelsesgraden vil vise sig lavere end de nødvendige 75% og langt lavere end målet på 90%. Der var dog lidt økonomisk nyt i form af en mere detaljeret opgørelse af euroområdets BNP-vækst for 4. kvartal 2012. Den gav ikke umiddelbart anledning til fortrøstning om at regionen kan holde sig fri af recession, da rapporten viste et bredt baseret fald. Den øgede risikoaversion indebar samtidigt øget efterspørgsel efter JPY og USD som begge blev styrket pænt især mod EUR. EUR/JPY-krydset viste således største fald i fire måneder. GBP blev også svækket, hvilket desuden kunne hente inspiration fra lidt svage nøgletal, herunder en rapport der uventet viste faldende huspriser i februar. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Aktier Aktu elt %-Æ ndring Aktuelt Æ ndring OMXC20 443.7-2.50 USD/JPY 80.8-0.68 Stoxx600 258.5-2.67 EUR/USD 1.315-0.005 FTSE 5765.8-1.86 EUR/DKK 7.434 0.001 Dow Jones 12759.2-1.57 USD/DKK 5.653 0.021 Nasdaq 2910.3-1.36 SEK/DKK 0.834-0.005 Brasil. 65114.1-2.76 NOK/DKK 0.995-0.006 Hang Seng 20643.4-0.78 CHF/DKK 6. 166 0.001 Nikkei 9576.1-0.64 GBP/DKK 8.90-0.03 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktu elt Æ ndring Aktuelt Æ ndring USA 1.97-0.03 CRB 314.5 1.64 EUR 1.78-0.05 Brent oil (1Mf) 122. 4-1.07 DKK 1.81-0.04 Gold (spot) 1674.4-1.62 Pengemarkedsr enter EURIBOR3M 0.92 CHF3M 0.09 CIBOR3M 0.99 EURIBOR6M 1.23 CHF6M 0.15 CIBOR6M 1.25 Alle tal er opgjort kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag kl. 7:30 Vi forventer, at ECB vil holde renten i ro på 1,00%, men vil dog ikke udelukke yderligere rentenedsættelser, skulle den økonomiske situation tilsige det. Nationalbanken forventes at følge ECB på helt kort sigt, dog med mulighed for yderligere negativ spændudvidelse. Spændet ventes dog igen positvt på 12-måneders sigt. Det er dog usikkert og afhænger i høj grad af udviklingen i DKK. Vi forventer, at Federal Reserve holder pengepolitikken uændret lempelig frem til i hvert fald slutningen af 2014, med en vis sandsynlighed for at en ny omgang kvantitative lempelser (QE3) kan blive aktuel. EUR er under pres fra en lempeligere pengepolitik samt den fortsatte usikkerhed i forbindelse med gældskrisen i euroområdet. Så mens der stadig er en trussel for USD fra den uafklarede situation og den politiske uenighed i forbindelse med udformningen af finanspolitikken, så venter vi generelt en stærkere USD over for EUR på 12 måneders sigt. NOK og SEK ses at kunne blive styrket en smule yderligere på kort sigt, men ventes svækket over de kommende 12 måneder som følge af en fortsat mere lempelig retning i pengepolitikken. Officielle renter 10-årig statsoblig ationer Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 1.97 2.20 2.50 2.75 EUR/USD 1.315 1.26 1. 25 1.15 Euroland 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.78 2.00 2.10 2.25 USD/JPY 80.8 83.0 80.0 86.0 Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.98 1.10 1.15 1.20 USD/DKK 5.653 5.91 5. 96 6.48 Danmark 0.70 0.70 0.80 1.05 1.81 2.00 2.20 2.40 EUR/DKK 7.434 7.45 7. 45 7.46 Sverige 1.50 1.25 1.00 1.00 1.81 1.90 2.00 2.00 SEK/DKK 0.8340 0.856 0.832 0.838 Norge 1.75 1.75 1.50 1.50 2.35 2.30 2.40 2.55 NOK/DKK 0.9947 1.000 0.968 0.968 7. marts 2012 2
Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab 06/03/12 Topdanmark A/S Y 07/03/12 Boconcept Holding A/S-B Q3 07/03/12 D/S Norden Y 07/03/12 Genmab A/S Y 08/03/12 Bavarian Nordic A/S Y Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikato r Periode Survey SH B Forrige F aktisk 05/03/12 09:45 Italien PMI Services FEB 45.2 - - 44.8 44.1 05/03/12 10:00 EMU PMI Composite FEB F 49.7 - - 49.7 49.3 05/03/12 10:00 EMU PMI Services FEB F 49.4 - - 49.4 48.8 05/03/12 10:30 UK PMI Services FEB 54.9 - - 56.0 53.8 05/03/12 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidenc e MAR -6. 0 - - -11.1-8.2 05/03/12 11:00 EMU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM/YoY) JAN -0.1%/-1.6% - - -0.4%/-1.6% 0.3%/0.0% 05/03/12 16:00 USA ISM Non-Manf. Composite FEB 56.1 56.0 56.8 57.3 05/03/12 16:00 USA Factory Orders JAN -0.9% - - 1.4%(r) -1.0% 06/03/12 11:00 EMU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ/YoY) 4Q P -0.3%/0.7% -0.3%/0.7% -0.3%/0.7% -0.3%/0.7% 07/03/12 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM) JAN - - -2.5% 5.6% 07/03/12 12:00 Tyskland Factory Orders (MoM/YoY) JAN 0.6%/-1.8% - - 1.7%/0.0% 07/03/12 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 02. Mar - - - - -0.3% 07/03/12 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change FEB 200K - - 170K 07/03/12 14:30 USA Nonfarm Productivity 4Q F 0.8% - - 0.7% 07/03/12 14:30 USA Unit Labor Costs 4Q F 1.2% - - 1.2% 07/03/12 USA Revisions: ADP national Employment Report 08/03/12 00:50 Japan Gross Domestic Product (QoQ/annualized) 4Q F -0.2%/-0.6% - - -0.6%/-2.3% 08/03/12 00:50 Japan Trade Balance - BOP Basis JAN - 1370.3B - - - 145.8B 08/03/12 09:15 Schweiz CPI (MoM/YoY) FEB 0.2%/-1.0% - - -0.4%/-0.8% 08/03/12 12:00 Tyskland Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) JAN 0.9%/0.6% - - -2.9%/0.9% 08/03/12 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target MAR 325B 325B 325B 08/03/12 13:00 UK Rentebeslutning, Bank of England 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 08/03/12 13:30 USA Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) FEB - - - - 38.9% 08/03/12 13:45 EMU Rentebeslutning, ECB 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 08/03/12 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 03. Mar - - - - 351K 08/03/12 14:30 USA Continuing Claims 25. Feb - - - - 3402K 08/03/12 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 04. Mar - - - - - 38.8 09/03/12 00:50 Japan Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) FEB 2.6% - - 2.6% 09/03/12 02:30 Kina Consumer Price Index (YoY) FEB 3.4% - - 4.5% 09/03/12 06:30 Kina Industrial Production (YoY) FEB 12.4% - - 12.8% 09/03/12 06:30 Kina Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) FEB 19.5% - - 23.8% 09/03/12 06:30 Kina Retail Sales (YoY) FEB 17.3% - - 18.1% 09/03/12 08:00 Kina Consumer Price Index (MoM/YoY) FEB F 0.7%/2.3% - - 0.7%/2.3% 09/03/12 08:00 Kina CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM/YoY) FEB F 0.9%/2.5% - - 0.9%/2.5% 09/03/12 09:00 Tyskland Exports/Imports SA (MoM) JAN 1.5%/1.2% - - -4.3%/-3.9% 09/03/12 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) JAN 0.4%/-3.1% - - 0.5%/-3.3% 09/03/12 14:30 USA Trade Balance JAN -$49.0B - - -$48.8B 09/03/12 14:30 USA Ændring i Nonfarm Payrolls FEB 206K 175K 243K 09/03/12 14:30 USA Ændring i Private Payrolls FEB 215K 190K 257K 09/03/12 14:30 USA Arbejdsløshedsrate FEB 8.3% 8.3% 8.3% 09/03/12 16:00 USA Wholesale Inventories JAN 0.6% - - 1.0% 7. marts 2012 3
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The Bank has also adopted guidelines to ensure the integrity and independence of research analysts and the research department, as well as to identify, eliminate, avoid, deal with, or make public actual or potential conflicts of interests relating to analysts or the Bank. As part of its control of conflicts of interests, the Bank has introduced restrictions ( Chinese walls ) in communication between the Research department and other departments of the Bank. In addition, in the Bank s organisational structure, the Research department is kept separate from the Corporate Finance department and other departments with similar remits. 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Contact information Capital Markets Michael Green Head +46 8 701 43 56 Per Elcar Global co-head of Equities +46 8 701 19 49 Björn Linden Global co-head of Equities +44 7909528735 Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research and +46 8 701 10 97 Chief Economist, SHB Magnus Fageräng Head of Structured Products +46 8 701 30 72 Peter Karlsson Head of Equity & Credit Research +46 8 701 21 51 Debt Capital Markets Tony Lindlöf Head of Debt Capital Markets +46 8 701 25 10 Kjell Arvidsson Head of Loans +46 8 701 20 04 Per Jäderberg Head of Structured Finance +46 8 701 33 51 Måns Niklasson Head of Acquisition Finance +46 8 701 52 84 Ulf Stejmar Head of Corporate Bonds +46 8 701 24 16 Economic Research Jan Häggström Head of Economic Research +46 8 701 10 97 Sweden Petter Lundvik USA, Special Analysis +46 8 701 33 97 Gunnar Tersman Eastern Europe, Emerging +46 8 701 20 53 Markets Helena Trygg Japan, United Kingdom +46 8 701 12 84 Anders Brunstedt Swedish Economy +46 8 701 54 32 Eva Dorenius Web Editor +46 8 701 50 54 Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange & Commodities Carl Cederschiöld Head of Fixed Income, Currencies +46 8 701 10 38 and Commodities Warwick Salvage Head of Fixed Income +46 8 463 45 41 Håkan Larsson Head of Currencies +46 8 463 45 19 Magnus Strömer Head of Commodities +46 8 463 45 63 Patrik Castman-Langlet Head of Derivative Sales +46 8 463 46 24 Lars Henriksson Head of F/X Sales +46 8 463 45 18 Trading Strategy Claes Måhlén Head +46 8 463 45 35 Martin Enlund Senior Strategist FI/FX +46 8 463 46 33 Johan Sahlström Senior Credit Strategist +46 8 463 45 37 Therese Öhlin Senior Credit Strategist +46 8 463 48 59 Martin Jansson Senior Commodity Strategist +46 8 461 23 43 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Denmark Jes Asmussen Head, Economic Research +45 467 91203 Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø Danish economy +45 467 91619 Thomas Haugaard Latin America, Emerging Markets +45 467 91229 Finland Tiina Helenius Head, Economic Research +358 10 444 2404 Tuulia Asplund Finnish economy +358 10 444 2403 Olli Hyytiäinen Finnish economy +358 10 444 2403 Norway Knut Anton Mork Head, Economic Research +47 22 39 71 81 Ida Wolden Bache Norwegian economy +47 22 39 73 40 Nils Kristian Knudsen Senior Strategist FX/FI +47 22 82 30 10 Kari Due-Andresen Norwegian economy +47 22 39 70 07 Regional Sales Copenhagen Kristian Nielsen +45 46 79 12 69 Gothenburg Karl-Johan Svensson +46 31 743 31 09 Gävle Andreas Edvardson +46 26 172 144 Helsinki Mika Rämänen +358 10 444 62 20 Linköping Fredrik Lundgren +46 13 28 91 10 London Ray Spiers +44 207 578 86 12 Luleå Ove Larsson +46 90 154 719 Luxembourg Christiane Junio +352 274 868 244 Malmö Jonas Darte +46 40 24 54 04 Oslo Petter Fjellheim +47 22 82 30 29 Stockholm Malin Nilén +46 8 701 27 70 Umeå Kenneth Båtsman +46 90 154 581 Toll-free numbers From Sweden to 020-58 64 46 From Norway to 800 40 333 From Denmark to 8001 72 02 From Finland to 0800 91 11 00 Within the US 1-800 396-2758 Svenska Handelsbanken AB (publ) Stockholm Copenhagen Blasieholmstorg 11 Havneholmen 29 SE-106 70 Stockholm DK-1561 Copenhagen V Tel. +45 46 79 12 00 Tel. +46 8 701 10 00 Fax. +45 46 79 15 52 Fax. +46 8 701 12 40 Helsinki Aleksanterinkatu 11 FI-00100 Helsinki Tel. +358 10 444 11 Fax. +358 10 444 2578 Oslo Tjuvholmen Allé 11, Postboks 1249 Vika NO-0110 Oslo Tel. +47 22 94 0700 Fax. +47 2233 6915 London 3 Thomas More Square London GB-E1W 1WY Tel. +44 207 578 8668 Fax. +44 207 578 8090 New York Handelsbanken Markets Securities, Inc. 875 Third Avenue, 4 th Floor New York, NY 10022-7218 Tel. +1 212 326 5153 Fax. +1 212 326 2730 FINRA, SIPC