Polit Case Competition

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Kaare Dahl
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1 Polit Case Competition

2 Polit Case Competition ja, selvfølgelig! Der mangler en case competition til økonomer udviklet af økonomer og her ser vi Copenhagen Economics som den ideelle partner I dag skal I: 2

3 Der findes masser af cases I skal løse en CE case I kan forvente: o Virkelig problemstilling (konkret CE projekt vi har lavet) o Rigtigt data o Ingen hurtige svar I får behov for: o Effektiv arbejdsdeling o Dygtigt excel-arbejde o Kritisk tænkning o Egne antagelser I skal levere: o Én PowerPoint-præsentation som uploades senest kl på politcasecompetition.com. Selvsamme PowerPoint præsenteres søndag o Én sides word-sammenfatning som uploades senest kl Den skal ikke præsenteres, men vil indgå i bedømmelsen 3

4 Copenhagen Economics Superior decisions through hard facts and clear stories 4

5 Hard facts og clear stories i praksis den gode struktur 1. Situation Stable state Non-controversial Self-sufficient 2. Complication Disturbs stable state Generates question 3. Question Raised by the complication 4. Answer Idea that solves the complication Idea Idea Idea Idea Idea Idea 5

6 Øvre pyramide: The Swedish market for air navigation S: A significant part of the Swedish market for air navigation was opened for competition from 1 September Air navigation in the upper air space is still a monopoly handled by Luftfartsverket, while there is now competition for air navigation in the lower air space. C: But recently, uncertainty has arisen whether free competition should reign in the lower air space within the so-called Joint Terminal Areas. Joint Terminal Areas are parts of the lower air space above an area with more than one airport, where air navigation tend to be more complex. A government investigator, Director General Jonas Bjelfvenstam, recommended in April 2012 that air navigation in Joint Terminal Areas for economic reasons should go back to be a part of the monopoly. Bjelfvenstam argued that competitive provision of air navigation in Joint Terminal Areas would lead to high transaction costs, low efficiency, and poor coordination. Q: Is Bjelfvenstam right? A: No, Bjelfenstam is wrong 6

7 Nedre pyramide: The Swedish market for air navigation A: No, Bjelfenstam is wrong. There are not high transaction costs Little impact on efficiency Monopoly is costly Air management is not a vertical supply chain No guns No incentives 7

8 Den gode struktur: Hard facts, clear stories i praksis 1. Situation Stable state Non-controversial Self-sufficient 2. Complication Disturbs stable state Generates question PowerPoint (rapport, opgave, m.m.) 3. Question Raised by the complication 4. Answer Idea that solves the complication Sammenfatning Idea Idea Idea Idea Idea Idea 8

9 Sammenfatning: The Swedish market for air navigation Executive Summary A significant part of the Swedish market for air navigation was opened for competition from 1 September Air navigation in the upper air space is still a monopoly handled by Luftfartsverket, while there is now competition for air navigation in the lower air space. But recently, uncertainty has arisen whether free competition should reign in the lower air space within the so-called Joint Terminal Areas. Joint Terminal Areas are parts of the lower air space above an area with more than one airport, where air navigation tend to be more complex. A government investigator, Director General Jonas Bjelfvenstam recommended in April 2012 that air navigation in Joint Terminal Areas for economic reasons should go back to be a part of the monopoly. Bjelfvenstam argued that competitive provision of air navigation in Joint Terminal Areas would lead to high transaction costs, low efficiency, and poor coordination. It turns out that Bjelfenstam is not right. He is wrong. We show that the presumption of high transaction costs relies on a clear misunderstanding of economics, that the presumption of low efficiency is unlikely and unsubstantiated, and that monopoly give rise to costly problems due to complex coordination. The latter will make it less attractive to enter the market for air navigation in Sweden as the size of the competitive market will decrease by 40 per cent. We conclude that there are good economic reasons to hold on to competitive provision of air navigation services in Joint Terminal Areas. The question becomes whether Bjelfvenstam is right? 9

10 Den gode case Præsentationen: o Skarpe og letforståelige konklusioner o Præcise argumenter baseret på korrekt dokumentation o Illustrative figurer o Pointering af antagelser, afgrænsninger, fordele og ulemper Sammenfatningen: o Vægt på hard facts and clear stories o Fornuftig balance ift. konklusioner, argumenter, dokumentation og antagelser o Velformulerede sætninger fra start til slut Nørdevenner: Hard facts og clear stories vægtes i bedømmelsen! 10

11 Forskel mellem consultancy og academia 100% Tid Consultancy 10% Academia Emner 11

12 En figur siger mere end ord Per Ulstrup Johansen, Samfundsbeskrivelse 1. semester 12

Countries with patent protection by client Countries without patent protection by client Market share estimated to be captured by free riding firm CAGR: 8.

13 Countries with patent protection by client Countries without patent protection by client Market share estimated to be captured by free riding firm CAGR: 8.9% Global product market, today Global product market, 2019 Global product market, 2019, divided by countries with and without patent protection by client Global product market, 2019, market share to be captured by free riding company

14 WACC is imperfect in theory WACC Share of Debt Cost of Debt Share of Equity Cost of Equity D D + E C debt E D + E [r f +β ERP] 14

15 Behavioral change: Most communication is done digitally % 70% 15

16 A Chemical Separation Plant will not increase the value The value for Italy* musd CSP in Europe musd CSP in Italy Private income Public income Private income Public income 0 Direct taxes** Reduced block grant Direct Indirect personnel taxes*** taxation Local wages on mine Indirect wages Total 0 Direct taxes** Reduced block grant Direct Indirect personnel taxes*** taxation Local wages on mine Indirect wages Total Note: * The figure shows the accumulated contribution to Italy s net national disposable income ** Direct taxes include royalties and withholding taxes *** Indirect taxes include product taxes (less of subsidies) and corporate and withholding taxes, plus saved public benefits Source: Copenhagen Economics 16

17 Potentialet er meget større end den direkte beskatning Gevinsten for Grønland ved et storskalaprojekt Import Lønninger Fastboende Udlændinge Lønninger Overskud Fastboende Overskud Lønninger Afskrivninger Kapitalafkast Ressourcerente Indkomstskat Selskabsskat RR-afgift 50% af produktionsværdi Grønlandske underleverandører Skatteindtægter Afskrivninger Overskud Kapitalafkast Ressourcerente Lønninger Overskud Produktion Direkte værdiskabelse Indirekte værdiskabelse Induceret værdiskabelse Penge ud af landet Beskatning Indkomst til Grønland (BNI) Note: Kilde: angiver multiplikatoreffekter. Copenhagen Economics

18 Luftfart og turisme i Grønland Polit Case Competition

19 Grønland har svært ved at slippe krisen Den økonomiske udvikling i Grønland 3,0% +2,5% +2,2% 1,5% 0,0% +0,0% -1,5% -0,7% -0,3% -0,5% -1,9% -3,0% Note: Kilde: Figuren viser realvæksten i BNP. Tallene for 2012 og 2013 er foreløbige. For 2014 og 2015 er der tale om GrønlandsBANKENs skøn. Grønlands Statistik og egne skøn 19

20 Grønlands Selvstyre overvejer tre løsninger 1 Fiskeri 2 Råstoffer 3 Turisme 20

21 Oversigt over luftfart i Grønland Qaanaaq To aktive flyselskaber: Air Greenland flyver fra Europa (CPH) til Kangarlussuaq i Grønland Upernavik Qaarsut Ilulissat Aasiaat Sisimut Kangarlussuaq Maniitsoq Nuuk Kulusuk Constable Pynt Air Iceland flyver fra Island (KEF) til forskellige destinationer i Grønland Langt de fleste turister flyver direkte fra Europa til Grønland Paamiut Narsarsuaq 21

22 Værsgo at gå i gang 22

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Luftfart og turisme i Grønland

Luftfart og turisme i Grønland Polit Case Competition Copenhagen Economics 14. marts 2015 Introduktion I det følgende præsenteres tre cases. Alle handler om luftfart i Grønland, men adresserer forskellige