Moving 85/15 Energy Forward. Hvordan hænger DONG Energys satsninger sammen med det energipolitiske forlig. Charles Nielsen, Director R&D

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1 Moving 85/15 Energy Forward Hvordan hænger DONG Energys satsninger sammen med det energipolitiske forlig Charles Nielsen, Director R&D Energitopmøde den 28. juni 2012, Aalborg

2 Hvordan hænger DONG Energys satsninger sammen med det energipolitiske forlig? Er der sammenhæng mellem DONG Energys investeringsplaner for vind og energiforliget? Hvordan implementeres vind og biomasse i den samlede energiforsyning fremadrettet? Hvilke udfordringer er der forbundet med, at vind er en fluktuerende energikilde? Hvilke satsninger arbejder DONG Energy med indenfor andre energikilder?

3 Disposition DONG Energy firma, vision og strategi Energihistorien og energiforliget DONG Energy og vind DONG Energy og biomasse Fluktuerende energi i energisystemet Andet Klimapartnerskaber, PV og EV

4 DONG Energy is an integrated energy company and active throughout the value chain Exploration & Production Thermal Power Wind Power Energy Markets Sales & Distribution Main positions Geographic focus areas Central power plant Waste-to-Energy generation Small-scale CHP plants Gas-fired power plant Offshore wind Onshore wind Hydro power Wind farms under planning/construction Power and/or natural gas customers Gas storage capacity Power and gas sales Gas distribution Power distribution Gas storage Total revenue 2011*: EUR 7,6bn Total EBITDA 2011*: EUR 2,1bn Current market position Strong and growing equity gas position The leading thermal generator on Nord Pool and market leader in district heating in Denmark Growing wind power portfolio with market leading position in offshore wind power Leading position in power and gas infrastructure. Retail positions in Sweden and Holland Leading seller of power and natural gas in Denmark and active in several other countries 4

5 November 2011 DONG Energy activities Results REVENUE DKKbn 56.8 EBITDA DKKbn 13.8 PROFIT DKKbn 2.9 5

6 Our basic assumptions The demand for energy will grow Clean energy is vital Diversification Focus on upstream Conversion away from coal towards cleaner energy sources Avoid dependency (countries, fuels, technologies) 6

7 VISION Clean and reliable energy VISION

8 DONG Energy's vision is to produce clean and reliable energy 15 / / 15 50/50 Green Energy

9 DONG Energy's Vision is to Produce Clean and Reliable Energy 15 / / / 15 Green Energy From black to green electricity

10 Reliable energy through diversification WIND BIOMASS GAS 10

11 Disposition DONG Energy firma, vision og strategi Energihistorien og energiforliget DONG Energy og vind DONG Energy og biomasse Fluktuerende energi i energisystemet Andet Klimapartnerskaber, PV og EV

12 The Danish energy sector is on a journey towards a reliable, sustainable energy system rooted in an international market Paradigm changes in the Danish energy system 1970s 1980s 1990s From oil to coal CHP champion Wind power Oil fired plants Oil crisis Retrofit for coal State-of-the-art CHP Gas network Climate change starts to gain attention Wind power grows From single turbines to wind farms Interconnectors 2000s Liberalization New market framework Sector on commercial terms Large scale offshore wind Oil Coal Gas Biomass 2010s Biomass Green & flexible World leader in offshore wind High share of green energy Integration via flexibility Smart energy Ambitious government targets for the national energy and climate agenda 1 Electricity demand covered by wind energy 2 CO 2 emission reduction relative to Renewable energy in electricity and heating sector 4 Total energy demand covered by renewable energy Wind 21% 50% 11% 40% 34% 100% 22% 100%

13 Status for biomasse som energikilde i dag DK 2010 data Oil and gas are the primary fuels, with oil dominating the transportation sector Renewable energy sources are dominated by biomass however, wind is catching up Renewables account for 22,3% of the energy consumption and 33,1% of the electricity production 1000 PJ Final Energy Consumption: Oil Natural Gas Coal & Coke Renewables 13 Oil 45 % Gas 11 % Renewables 9 % Electricity 18% Heat 17 %

14 Energiforliget Bred og ambitiøs aftale frem til % reduktion i bruttoenergiforbruget i % VE (50% vind i el) Krigers Flak, Horns Rev og kystnære møller Grøn varme Mere VE i bygninger og erhverv Smartere elnet Biogas El og biomasse i transport sektoren 10% iblanding i 2020 F&U 14

15 Disposition DONG Energy firma, vision og strategi Energihistorien og energiforliget DONG Energy og vind DONG Energy og biomasse Fluktuerende energi i energisystemet Andet Klimapartnerskaber, PV og EV

16 DONG Energy has a significant portfolio and a strong pipeline In operation Under construction Constructor of offshore wind capacity ~ 30% Others 70%

17 and we have been involved since the early days of the industry Total installed capacity by DONG Energy*, (MW) Nysted 166 MW Gunfleet Sands 173 MW Horns Rev MW 209 MW Burbo 90 MW Barrow 90 MW 386 MW MW 5 MW 50 MW Examples Vindeby Middelgrunden Horns Rev 1 Walney 1 The world's first offshore wind farm The world's first large offshore farm First real large scale offshore wind farm in the world Most recent installed wind farm by DONG Energy Turbine capacity: Nr. of turbines Rotor diameter Distance to shore 0,45 MW m 1,8 km Turbine capacity: Nr. of turbines Rotor diameter Distance to shore 2 MW m 4,7 km Turbine capacity: Nr. of turbines Rotor diameter Distance to shore 2 MW m 18 km Turbine capacity: Nr. of turbines Rotor diameter Distance to shore 3,6 MW m km *) Actual ownership share lower due to divestments

18 Clear trend towards partnerships in offshore wind projects DONG Energy offshore wind projects in partnerships Borkum Riffgrund I 277MW OTICON FOUNDATION Horns Rev 160 MW There is a clear tendency towards partnerships in wind projects e.g. to Diversify risks Combine expertise WoDS 389 MW Anholt 400 MW Increase value creation Increased complexity of offshore sites as well as increase in project size is expected to drive partner trend even further Walney 368 MW London Array 1000 MW Barrow 90 MW Lincs 270 MW Middelgrunden 40 MW private partnership Nysted 166 MW DONG Energy is an attractive partner due to leading market position, project development experience as well as supply chain positioning DONG Energy has experience with different types of partnerships (Industrial players, financial investors, and Institutional investors such as pension funds) Gunfleet Sands 172 MW

19 Med en målrettet indsats vil prisen komme ned Adgang til ny teknologi Nye og større turbiner Fundamenter til større havdybder Optimering af kabler Industrialiseringskoncepter Porteføljestyring Effektivisering af installationen O&M synergier Lavere pris på offshore vind O&M koncepter Nye og forbedrede O&M koncepter Nye fartøjer Bedre overvågning og vedligehold 19

20 Offshore wind to become competitive by 2020 Levelised Cost of Energy EUR/MWh ILLUSTRATIVE Offshore wind CCGT Capacity increases 2 times by 2020 Capacity increases 3.5 times by 2020 Annual fossil price increases CO 2 9%, natural gas 0.7% CO 2 5%, natural gas 0.7% Reduction in LCOE for offshore wind dependent on: Technological development Optimisation of processes Stable framework conditions for industry Note: learning rate offshore wind 10%. IEA price assumptions, World Energy Outlook 2009

21 Danmarks største havmøllepark 111 vindmøller placeret på 88 km 2 mellem Djursland og Anholt i Kattegat Samlet kapacitet på 400 MW Dette svarer til husstandes årlige elforbrug (eksempelvis hele Storkøbenhavn) Parken vil dække 4 procent af Danmarks samlede elforbrug med CO 2 -fri elektricitet 1

22 Elpriser og økonomien i Anholt Havmøllepark DONG Energy er sikret 105,1 øre/kwh (uden prisregulering) for de første 20 TWh, svarende til ca. 12 år. Derefter sælges den producerede el på markedsvilkår uden tilskud. Anlægsinvesteringen er ca. 10 mia. Koncessionen løber i 25 år. I forbindelse med koncessionen bad folketinget om en analyse af DONG Energy's budpris. 22

23 Partnerskab Anholt Havmøllepark ejes i fællesskab af DONG Energy (50%), PensionDanmark (30 %) og PKA (20 %) DONG Energy står for anlæg og drift af parken PensionDanmark er et kundeejet pensionsselskab, der administrerer: overenskomst- og virksomhedsaftalte arbejdsmarkedspensioner, sundhedsordninger og uddannelsesfonde for medlemmer beskæftiget i offentlige og private virksomheder. PKA er landets største administrationsselskab for pensionskasser, der administrerer arbejdsmarkedspensioner for otte selvstændige pensionskasser med i alt medlemmer. Godt 90 % er kvinder. Medlemmerne er ansat i social- og sundhedssektoren og kommunerne 23

24 Parken idriftsat inden udgangen af 2013 Tid Februar 2008 Aktivitet Politisk aftale om etablering af vindmøllepark på 400 MW 2. juli 2010 Koncession tildelt DONG Energy Juli 2010 Efteråret 2011 Geologiske undersøgelser indledes Etablering af ilandføringskabel påbegyndes Byggeperiode Januar 2012 Marts 2012 Opstilling af fundamenter påbegyndes Etablering af trafo-platform påbegyndes Juni 2012 September 2012 Udlægning af kabler i parken påbegyndes Opstilling af møller påbegyndes Oktober 2012 Sommer 2013 Første elektricitet produceres Hele parken er i drift 4

25 EXAMPLE: Walney on the path to reducing cost of energy Key achievements Description Benefits ACCELERATED INSTALLATION Conventional offshore wind farm Walney 1 9 Months Walney months Accelerated time to production Capital investment bound for a reduced time period MULTI CONTRACTING DONG Energy has taken responsibility for the entire Engineering, Procurement and Construction process managing a total of 348 contracts Improved control over budget and time schedule Improved risk management Removal of a contractors normal "cost for uncertainty risk" IMPROVED TECHNOLOGY First commercial use of Siemens 120m rotors 1 Use of significant blade improvements 1 The largest ever individually designed monopile foundations 1 Optimised production in low wind conditions Improved wind farm economy Notes: 1.For Walney 2 - Only

26 The High Five programme is key towards realization of the pipeline and to reduce costs Challenges High Five focus areas / work streams Site specific and geographical challenges of future projects (after 2016): Larger projects (up to 1GW+) Deeper water (up to 60m+) Farther from shore (up to 150 km+) Rough climate Reduction of the levelised cost of energy is required for offshore wind to be competitive in the mid- to long-term Introduction of next generation 6-8 MW turbines Deep water (60m+) foundation concept maturation Design optimal electrical infrastructure systems Acceleration of installation and optimization of logistics Development of O&M concepts for future challenging site conditions To ensure effective project pipeline execution in the medium and long term, DONG Energy has identified 5 major themes for technical improvements DONG Energy is focusing on process optimisation and new concepts DONG Energy is also in dialogue with suppliers to develop new technological solutions 26

27 Disposition DONG Energy firma, vision og strategi Energihistorien og energiforliget DONG Energy og vind DONG Energy og biomasse Fluktuerende energi i energisystemet Andet Klimapartnerskaber, PV og EV

28 And more efficient ways to use biomass Biokonvertering Biogas opgradering 28

29 Biomassekonvertering af centrale kraftvarmeværker bidrager markant til reduceret CO 2 -udledning Ændring af DONG Energy brændselsmix til el- og varmeproduktion i Danmark * PJ Brændsel Samlet CO 2 -udledning fra DONG Energys el- og varmeproduktion i Danmark Mio. tons CO ~1 Mt biomasse Biomasse Kul 18-72% 100 ~1.3 Mt biomasse ~6 Mt kul ~4 Mt kul ~2.7 mt biomasse * ~1,8 Mt kul * Investeringer på 2-3 mia. kr. i grøn varme i Kilde: Thermal Power Commercial 29 *Forudsætter gennemførelse af biokonverteringer, der ikke er endeligt besluttet

30 Biomassekonverteringen af Studstrupværkets blok 3 er betydeligt anlægsprojekt i Aarhusområdet Visualisering af elementerne i biomassekonvertering af SSV3 Fakta om anlægsprojektet Forventet årligt træpilleforbrug 0,6 0,8 mio. tons/år Årlig CO 2 -besparelse ca. 1,1 mio. tons Nominelt indfyret træpille-mængde ca. 180 tons/time Kapacitet af træpillesilo ca m 3 / tons Samlet investering ca. DKK 700 mio. Samlet F&U-aktivitet ifm. biokonverteringsprojekterne ca. DKK 50 mio. Kilde: DONG Energy Thermal Power 30

31 Feedstocks, technologies and products NIEHE /

32 Ny og innovativ udnyttelse af affalds- og bioressourcer kan løse globale miljøudfordringer Globale udfordringer Nye teknologier Globale løsninger Lokal forurening Klima-ændringer Lav værdi af landbrugsprodukter Affald / restprodukter Ressourcebegrænsning Biomass liquefaction INBICON Waste liquefaction Gasification Erstatter kul og gas Erstatter olieprodukter Erstatter brændstof Erstatter foder Erstatter kunstgødning Danske styrkepositioner og politisk mod til at støtte fremtidens teknologier kan udløse stort grønt vækstpotentiale 32

33 Demonstration Plant T/day Output: 5.4 mill. l ethanol 13,100 t lignin pellets 11,250 t C5-molasses Input: 30,000 t wheat straw Enzyme suppliers: Danisco Genencor Novozymes Investment: 64 mill., incl. 10 mill. DK gov't support Demonstration supported with 9 mill by EU

34 MEC`s 2 G. Bioethanol 3 D

35 Main stream Strøm (vindmølle) El Brintproduktion Brint Procesanlæg VE-naturgas Husholdninger Proces el Dagrenovatio n Affaldsbehandling Biogas Faststof (RDF) Damp Biogas Kraftvarme Fødevareindustri Restbiomasse Biovæske Bioga s RDF Landbrug Gylle mv. Gødning Halm Biogas Melass e 2. Generation Bioethanol Fiber Lignin Kølevarme Damp Ethanol Biomasse Kraftvarme El Næringsstoffer Transportbrændstof Varme Varmetransmission & distribution

36 Maabjerg Energy Concept er et dansk fuldskala bioraffi-naderi, der kan samle VE-teknologier og udnytte synergier Maabjerg Energy Concept I/S (MEC): Oprettet af DONG Energy A/S og Novozymes A/S sammen med de lokale forsyningsselskaber (Vestforsyning A/S, Struer Forsyning A/S, Nomi I/S) MEC samler 2G bioethanol, biogas, kraftvarme og affald Undersøger muligheden for at samle 2G bioethanol, biogas, kraftvarme og affald i et energikoncept Energiaftalen 2012 Understøtter biogas og sikrer afsætning og værdi af biprodukterne lignin og C5-melasse fra bioethanolproduktionen Kilde: DONG Energy 36

37 MEC kan skabe beskæftigelse og vækst i udkantsområde og har kun brug for få incitamenter Maabjerg Energy Concept I/S (MEC): Samlet investering: Ca. 3,6 mia kr Opland for halm fuldtidsjob i anlægsperioden 2014, primært indenfor bygge og anlæg jobs på årsbasis, primært lokale indenfor landbrug, energi og forsyning, bygge og anlæg Afledte jobs indenfor viden og teknologi, maskinudstyr og systemeksport Visualisering af bioethanolanlæg En dybere samfundsøkonomisk analyse er under udarbejdelse med anvendelse af ADAM modellen Behov for begrænsede yderligere incitamenter Politisk præference for tilsætning af 2G bioethanol til benzin i Danmark Et sikkerhedsnet for investeringen de første 5 år Kilde: DONG Energy 37

38 REnescience offers a cheaper and more efficient alternative to incineration Landfill and incineration is the most commonly used waste handling method in Europe today Clean and smart handling through enzymatic process 40% of European municipal solid waste went to landfill REnescience significantly reduces the need for incineration and landfill Current German incinerated volumes may be decomposed into valuable fractions without pretreatment. Specifically the bio liquid will be of significant value as a biogas booster The process has a number of benefits 1. Lower CAPEX compared to new incineration capacity 2. Higher energy efficiency than traditional incineration 3. The bio liquid from the process can boost efficiency of current and future German biogas production facilities A demonstration line (1,000 kg/h) has been running continuously at Amagerforbrænding since 2009.

39 Pyroneer-forgasning af biomasse En mulighed for at mobilisere "vanskelig" biomasse til energiproduktion Medforbrænding: Kul & halm Traditionel medforbrænding Kraftværk Maksimal biomasseandel er ca. 10% Sammenblanding af bioaske og kulaske Næringsstoffer går tabt Korrosion i kedel og deaktivering af DeNOx katalysator Pyroneer forgasning: Brændselsfleksibilitet Lavtemperaturforgasning Kraftværk Flere typer biomasse (halm, gyllefibre, spildevandsslam, energiafgrøder mv.) Biomasseandel op til 50% Samfyring med træpiller og kul Genanvendelse af aske, næringsstoffer, fosfor m.v. Biogas Aske + salte 39

40 Millioner Muligt roadmap for udvikling af grøn damp og varme* PJ/år 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 Kul Naturgas Grøn Naturgas Biogas fra Pyroneer, energitræ 2,5 2,0 Biogas fra Pyroneer, halm 1,5 1,0 Biogas fra Pyroneer, ligning Biogas fra Pyroneer, slam 0,5 Biogas fra Biogasanlæg 0, Delvis ombygning af ASV2 til gas Overgang til 100% grøn gas * Pt. ingen investeringsbeslutning Kilde: KINEC 40

41 Disposition DONG Energy firma, vision og strategi Energihistorien og energiforliget DONG Energy og vind DONG Energy og biomasse Fluktuerende energi i energisystemet Andet - Klimapartnerskaber

42 Ambitious government targets challenge our value chain Electricity demand covered by renewable energy CO2 emission reduction relative to Renewable energy in electricity and heating sector Total energy demand covered by renewable energy 2 50% 40% 100% 100% 21% 11% 34% 22% Increase in intermittent production Generation Transmission Distribution Consumption Increase in intermittent demand 1:11,4% refers to non-adjusted data. If the data is adjusted for the low emissions in 1990 due to large hydro reserve in the Nordics, the reduction is 23,8%. While the Kyoto target refer to non-adjusted data, it remains unclear what the Government target refers to. 2: No coal for power production, neither oil burners for heating in

43 The intermittent nature of mainly wind power challenges the existing electricity system, which is based on a stable supply Wind profiles in January MW Load Periods with 2 Periods with 3 surplus deficit of power of power Periods requiring fast ramping of back-up capacity 4 Alternatives to grid support* from conventional power plants must be identified *voltage and frequency control etc. 43

44 The power grid capacity will be constrained as electrification of the transport sector and local power production takes off Likely additional load from EVs in DK in 2020 Existing load (2012) MWh Additional EV load (2020) 0,12 0,10 0,08 0,06 Grid capacity 6pm New charging loads from electric vehicles will put pressure on the existing grid infrastructure in peak periods. 0,04 0,02 0,00 Load pattern impact from solar panel in a rural area in Germany kw Measures should be taken to intelligently re-distribute loads within the available grid capacity space across time periods Residential solar panels are on the rise and expected to reach 1200 MW of installed capacity in But since local solar production is not in sync with local consumption, excess production is emitted into the grid pressuring capacity constraints even further. 44

45 Our conclusions for the Danish electricity sector moving towards 2020 Observation Implication 1 2 While our need for non-intermittent capacity remain the same, our utilisation-rate has decreased Our market for base-load capacity is under pressure Thermal power plants are stressed by renewables, but remain needed for extreme events, which deteriorates their business case considerably Our need for peak-capacity is somewhat increased Our need for absorption capacity has increased significantly The markets for intraday-balancing will grow, unless the forecasting quality is improved Excess production from renewable production must be stored, consumed or exported to neighbouring countries Push for shorter trading periods and smaller margins in the power market can be eased by better supply and demand forecasting 6 Our need for transmission and distribution capacity has increased significantly Alternatives to peak-load based grid dimensioning, eg smart grids, can pose potential value 45

46 Integrating energy infrastructure with across power, heating, gas and transportation will be key measures in balancing the power system towards 2020 and beyond Sector integration Market structure (incentives, standardization etc.) Storage (power-to-gas, elektrolyses) Distributed generation management (solar firming, microchp) Smart grid (demand side management, flexible loads) Flexible load management (Demand response, Power Hub, V2G) Renewable energy (forecasting and optimized ancillary services) Power system Heating system De-central generation (back-up function) Central generation (fleet intelligence and unit flexibility, bio refineries) District heating (back up for surplus energy) Gas system Transport system Transmission (interconnector build-out to neigbouring countries) 46

47 Disposition DONG Energy firma, vision og strategi Energihistorien og energiforliget DONG Energy og vind DONG Energy og biomasse Fluktuerende energi i energisystemet Andet Klimapartnerskaber, PV og EV

48 Visionen for det danske energisystem i 2050 Vindmølleparker Centrale bioraffinaderier Bruttoenergiforbrug 2010 (DK) Fast biomasse 15% Affald (ikke nedbr.) 2% Vind Andet 3% 1% 38% Olie Kul og koks 19% 22% Naturgas Energistyrelsen Bruttoenergiforbrug 2050 (DK) Affald Biogas 7% 7% Andet 13% 38% Vind Biomasse 35% Energinet.dk, Vindspor Kilde: Videreudviklet efter Energinet.dk Energi 2050, vindspor 48

49 Growing Green 49