TOPWASTE. Affald og 100% vedvarende energi. Seniorforsker Marie Münster Energi system analyse, DTU MAN ENG, Risø 6/6 2013

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1 TOPWASTE Seniorforsker Marie Münster Energi system analyse, DTU MAN ENG, Risø 6/ Affald og 100% vedvarende energi Affaldsmængder forventes fortsat at stige og energiforbruget at falde => affald kan komme til at udgøre en endnu højere andel af energiforsyningen Høj andel af vindkraft => højt behov for fleksibilitet Højt behov for biomasse - også til energi => behov for intelligent anvendelse af affald til energi Mål om 100% VE i energisektoren => problem med plastik i affaldsforbrænding Mængden af varme baseret på affald er stadig afgørende for udbygning af fjernvarmenet Konklusion Affald bliver en vigtig ressource også set fra energisektorens perspektiv Koordinering med energisektoren er nødvendig for at undgå suboptimering ift. nationale klimamål! 2 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 1

2 Energy System Analysis (ESA) and waste LCA Collection Transport Treatment Recovery Disposal Technology 1 X X X X X Technology 2 X X X X X Technology 3 X Technology n X 3 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet Take home message The flexibility of the energy system is important! Therefore: 1. Identify affected energy production with energy system analysis. 2. Include the full electricity market in the analysis along with local district heating markets. 3. Optimize both investments and production according to costs. 4. Include investments in both flexible and inflexible energy production technologies, as well as storage technologies in the optimization. 5. Analyse fundamentally different future scenarios. 4 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 2

3 ESA of flexibility impact an example Long-term affected energy production of waste to energy technologies identified by use of energy system analysis Marie Münster and Peter Meibom Waste Management 30 (2010) Economic optimization for 2025 with the Balmorel model taking into the Nordic and German energy systems Optimization of both investments and operation 5 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet WtE technologies Incineration: Existing and new waste incineration CHP (mixed waste). Co-combustion: Upgraded and new co-combustion plants (coal and RDF). Biogas: Biogas for CHP or transport fuel (organic waste and manure). RDF gas: Thermal gasification for CHP or transport fuel (RDF). Syngas: Syngas for CHP and transport fuel (mixed waste and coal). Combined: All WtE technologies. Less waste: 1 PJ less waste in Incineration alternative. 6 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 3

4 North EU Changed fuel use Denmark Waste incineration CHP Alternative WtE technologies Use of waste for energy in Denmark 7 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 30 PJ 51 PJ 20 PJ 36 PJ -36 PJ 8 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet -65 PJ 4

5 Flexibility options Storage (fuel, heat, electricity) Transmission (District heating networks, electricity networks) Flexible consumption (Heat pumps, electric vehicles) 9 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet Flexibility Changes in new DH consumption owing to investments in DH networks, electricity transmission and heat storage as well as use of central waste storage compared to the incineration alternative 10 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 5

6 Changed CO2 emissions and costs 11 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet Summing up 1. Identify affected energy production with energy system analysis. 2. Include the full electricity market in the analysis along with local district heating markets. 3. Optimize both investments and production according to costs. 4. Include investments in both flexible and inflexible energy production technologies, as well as storage technologies in the optimization. 5. Analyse fundamentally different future scenarios. 12 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 6

7 TOPWASTE Formål og spørgsmål Formål: at bidrage til forbedret anvendelse af affald til energi eller materiale genanvendelse med fokus på økonomi og miljømæssige hensyn inklusiv ressource mangel Hvor meget affald får vi i fremtiden? Hvad er den fremtidige optimale behandling af affald set fra et økonomisk og miljømæssigt synspunkt: genanvendelse eller energiproduktion? Hvilke regulerings- og organisatoriske tiltag kan understøtte politiske mål under forskellige markedsforhold? 13 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet TOPWASTE Strategisk forskningsprojekt Teknik Økonomi Miljø Markeder Affaldsmængder Regulering Organisation Deltagere AAU (DK) DTU (DK) SDU (DK) IVL (SE) KTH (SE) Lund Uni (SE) Yale Uni (US) RAM-løse edb Holmboe Consult Amagerforbrænding Reno-Nord 14 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 7

8 TOPWASTE TOOLS Technology data Fraction data Economic growth Waste statistics WP3 FRIDA WP2+5 database and KISS tool Local complex energy marginals GHG emissions Land use change Technology data Fraction data Global marginals WP4 OPTI WASTE Locally optimal waste treatment Local effects on energy system Investments and operation Total system costs and emissions Energy system data 15 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet FRIDA Fremskrivning af affaldsmængder Model estimeret på ISAG data til og med 2008 Excel model ligger på Fremskrivninger er baseret på antagelser om: Økonomisk udvikling i sektorer (Bygge/ anlæg, industri, service) Antal husstande Trends i ændret indsamling Anvendelse på lokalt niveau: Kendskab til størrelse på fraktioner Antagelser som på nationalt niveau Mere info: Frits Møller Andersen fman@dtu.dk 16 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 8

9 Storage Storage Demand Money Emissions Recycling Products Waste Waste-to-energy technologies Electricity Heat Electricity Heat Fuel Fuel Electricity Heat Coal Natural gas Biomass Wind power Energy conversion technologies Electricity 17 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet Tekniske forgrundsscenarier Main scenario (A) Reference DK (B) DK Dual stream (2- chamber bin) (C) Swedish 4-chamber bin Scenario variation (related to collection) (A1) Paper and glass (kerb/cube) + Residual bin (A2) Paper and glass (kerb/cube) + Bio bin + Residual bin (B1) Recyclables + Residual bin (B2) Recyclables + Bio bin + Residual bin (C1) 2 bins (8 fractions) (C2) 1 bin (4 fractions recyclables) + Residual bin (C3) 1 bin (4 fractions) + Bio bin + Residual bin (D) German recyclables bin (D1) Paper and glass (Kerb/cube) + Recyclables bin + Residual bin (E) Wet-Dry system (F) Central sorting of residual waste (D2) Paper and glass (Kerb/cube) + Recyclables bin + Bio bin + Residual bin Paper and glass (kerb/cube) + Dry bin + Wet bin Paper and glass (kerb/cube) + Residual bin 18 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 9

10 Source segregation and collection Alternative collection systems considered 19 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet Baggrundsscenarier (Omverdenen) 2050 og 2020 Hvordan ser energisystemet ud i DK? 100% VE? Hvor ambitiøs er omverdenen mht. klima? Hvor høj biomass import får vi til DK? Hvilke marginaler får vi i omverdenen mht. biomasse og genanvendelige materialer? 20 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet

11 The KISS tool concept Waste generation Source segregation Waste flows Collection Output flows Select waste type x Select scenario x Outflow ID Waste composition Material composition Subflow 1 Subflow 2 Transfer coefficients x x Outflow ID Outflow ID Physical/chemical proporties LHV Water content Cl - Bio-C content Fossil-C content N P 21 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet The end Tak for opmærksomheden! Spørgsmål og kommentarer er velkomne (maem@dtu.dk) 22 Danmarks Tekniske Universitet 11