Hans Jørgen Henriksen

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1 IDA Risk I la Mancha i Spanien har de en vandplan men hvilke usikkerheder er der på implementeringen? Hans Jørgen Henriksen De Nationale Geologiske Undersøgelser for Danmark og Grønland (GEUS) Foto frontcover: PhD Thesis: Pedro Zorrilla

2 Outline Hvad er adaptiv og integreret vandressourceforvaltning (AWM)? Definitioner af AWM fra NeWater Strategier for håndtering af usikkerhed i AWM Eksempel: Usikkerhedsvurdering i forbindelse med La Manch Vandplan Intro til vandkonfliktens rødder Brug af bayesianske net til integration, dialog og usikkerhedsanalyse Evaluering af interessenters perception af usikkerheder i vandplan Diskussion og konklusion Mere information

3 Skematisk repræsentation af systemet integreret og adaptiv vandforvaltning (AWM) Incomplete knowledge: - hydrologisk modelstruktur - geologiske fortolkninger - klimascenarier - parameterværdier Unknowable knowledge: - indbygget ubestemthed / fremtid (sociale systemer og klimasystem) - sociale systemer er uforudsigelige i deterministisk forstand Strategier til håndtering af usikkerhed: - accept not knowing - work on improving knowledge - learning to deal with differences Sources: Mysiak et al. (2009); Brugnach et al. (2009); Van der Keur et al. (2008)

4 Beslutninger under usikkerhed organiseringsanalyse / usikkerhedslag AWM & systemisk læring Learning from the future (Theory U/presencing) Social learning (Bayesian networks) Future Environment Institutions Organisation Group Person Social learning refers to the growing capacity of a social network to develop and perform collective action (Maurel et al. 2007) Organization/institution in the mind workshops (role analysis/making present) Subjective factors: Values, beliefs and perceptions influenced by background/understandings Person-Group-Organisation Source: Henriksen, H.J., Brugnach, M., Lopez-Gunn, E., Zorrilla, P., de la Hera, A. and Dumas, C. (in prep.) The case of adaptive water management. Methodological tools for decision making under uncertainty

5 Adaptation requires political will, flexible planning and inclusive decision process and tools Adaptive management (AWM) can be defined as a systematic process for improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of implemented management strategies (Pahl-Wostl et all./newater) Source: Brugnach et al. (2009)

6 Upper Guadiana basin case General setting Surface: 16,000 km 2 Population: 500,000 Hydrology Semiarid climate Rainfall: 400 mm/yr ETP: 1200 mm/yr Strong surface/groundwater interaction RAMSAR wetlands UNESCO Biosphere Reserve Water use Irrigation based development Irrigation 95% water use Irrigation 95% groundwater based Source: Martinez-Santos (2007)

7 Guadiana La Mancha vandkonflikten Ukontrolleret oppumpning siden 1970erne Sænkning af grundvandsspejlet Udtørring af RAMSAR vådområder Stigende hyppighed af tørker Konflikt mellem landmænd og miljøfolk, forskellige myndighedsniveauer, opstrøms og nedstrøms, store og små landmænd osv. Vandrammedirektivets målsætninger vil ikke kunne opfyldes indenfor de fastlagte tidsfrister

8 Vulnerability scenarier (2015/2027 Horizont) Key drivers EU Common Agricultural Policy International food trade agreements Upper Guadiana Water Plan Climate change Tajo-Segura water transfer Source: Martinez-Santos (2007) (...)

9 Formål med brug af Bayesianske belief net i Guadiana / La Mancha 1. At udvikle et aktør involverende beslutningsstøtte system 2. At forbedre viden niveauet hos centrale vandforbrugere og vandforvaltere og etablere en platform for dialog mellem interessenter 3. At vurdering Bayesianske nets evne til mere effektivt at engagere interessenterne i beslutningsprocessen Sources: Zorrilla et al. (forthcoming); Henriksen and Barlebo (2008)

10 UPPER GUADIANA KEY STAKEHOLDERS Spain s Central Government Regional / Local Governments Water User Associations Environmental Conservation Groups Farmer Unions Research Institutions Independent 1. General Water Directorate (Ministry of the Environment) 2. Guadiana River Basin Authority 3. Hidroguadiana 4. Regional Delegation for the Environment (REG) 5. Reg. Directorate for Agricultural Production (REG) 6. Regional Water Board (REG) 7. Daimiel Water Center (LOC) 8. Groundwater User Association of Spain (AEUAS) 9. Federation of Groundwater Users (Aquifer 23) 10. Association of Private Groundwater Users (Aquifer 24) 11. WWF/Adena Spain 12. SEO/Birdlife 13. Ecologistas en Acción ( Ecologists in Action ) 14. Ojos del Guadiana Vivos ( Guadiana Springs Alive ) 15. ASAJA 16. COAG 17. Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Spain (NWP) 18. Instituto de Soldadure e Qualidade, Portugal (NWP) 19. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain (NWP) 20. Geological Survey of Spain 21. New Water Culture Foundation 22. International Institute of Environmental Law 23. Ariño & Associates Lawyers 24. One individual farmer

11 Source: Pedro Zorrilla PhD Thesis

12 Final Bayesian network for UGB Sources: Zorrilla et al. (forthcoming); Zorrilla (2009)

13 Sensitivitetsanalyse (relationer mellem actions og indikator sensitivitet ) Zorrilla (2009) PhD Thesis

14 Dynamisk BN Zorrilla (2009) PhD Thesis

15 Sammenligning af directed versus dynamic Zorrilla (2009) PhD Thesis

16 Resultater af brug af Bayesianske net med interessentinvolvering Purchase of irrigation rights and imposition of water volume restrictions by the RBA to improve compliance of farmers was analysed Analysis showed a relatively high offer price for irrigation rights Probability to achieve recovery by the 2027 EU WFD deadline remain low (25-40 %). The cost of aquifer recovery has been estimated in economic and social terms Source: Zorrilla et al. (forthcomming)

17 Evaluering af BNs i Guadiana / La Mancha Bayesian networks are useful tool for identifying the level of knowledge or uncertainty (assessment of the quality of knowledge in a meaningful way) Probability distributions allowed the level of uncertainty of any particular result to be explicitly represented Bayesian networks (and AWM) require specific skills from the users and time (training is important) Source:Zorrilla et al. (forthcoming)

18 Discussion of the Guadiana / La Mancha experience Incremental improvement Reducing groundwater abstractions => Improving irrigation efficiency Sources: Hargrove 2000 Masterful coaching Reframing Re-opening the problem framing and broaden the focus to land use and less water consumptive crops => Improving water quantity, quality and aquatic habitat conditions Transforming Water users and farmers start to see things differently => more awareness about own and others values, beliefs and perceptions and thus a broadening of the context to include economic, social and institutional aspects

19 Conclusion Management of water resources is hampered by a variety of uncertainties, such as unpredictability, incomplete knowledge and ambiguities, affecting problem identification and adaptation strategies. Important to cope with uncertainty but necessarily just to reduce uncertainty, and to select strategies for that Communication between the different parties is an option to improve how uncertainties due to multiple knowledge perspectives (ambiguity) are dealt with Adaptive water management deals with uncertainty by creating through learning and adaptation the capacity to respond flexibly and effectively to changing and unknown conditions Bayesian belief networks have been proven to be an efficient tool for incorporating stakeholder beliefs, values and perceptions into decision making, and for analyzing impacts and uncertainties related to adaptation possible strategies

20 More information: Available November 2009: Earthscan publisher Videnskabelige artikler: Henriksen, HJ and Barlebo, HC (2008) Reflection on the use of Bayesian belief networks for adaptive management. Journal of Environmental Management Synthesis product no. 9 Mysiak, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., Sullivan, C., Bromley, J. and Henriksen, H.J. (2009) : The adaptive water resource Management handbook Synthesis product no. 2: Brugnach, M., van der Keur, P., Henriksen, H.J. and Mysiak, J. (2009) Uncertainty in adaptive management. Concepts and guidelines: Martinez-Santos, P., Henriksen, H.J., Zorilla, P. et. al (2010): Comparative reflections on the use of participatory modelling tools in conflictive water management settings: the Mancha Occidental aquifer, Spain. Environmental Modelling and Software. doi: /j.envsoft Zorrilla, P., Carmona, G., de la Hera, A., Varela-Ortega, C., Martinez-Santos, P., Bromley, J. and Henriksen, H.J. (forthcomming) Evaluation of Bayesian networks as a tool for participatory water resources management: Application to the Upper Guadiana Basin in Spain. Ecology & Society