Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus

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1 4. september 2015 Macro Research Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus Uge 37 Flere amerikanske arbejdsmarkedstal Ugen der gik Kina-vækstbekymringer og bløde toner fra ECB Statsrenterne er faldet gennem ugen i både USA og Tyskland/Danmark efter en stigning mandag. Rentefaldene hang nok sammen med lavere risikoappetit, som fik investorerne til at søge mod sikre statsobligationer. De fleste aktiemarkeder faldt også. Den negative stemning mandag hang blandt andet sammen med offentliggørelsen af svage industriaktivitetsindikatorer fra Kina og USA som holdt liv i bekymringerne for Kinas vækst og mindskede forventningen til at Federal Reserve i USA hæver renten på septembermødet. Rentefaldene fik ny næring af en dueagtig Draghi på ECB-mødet torsdag. Det gav samtidig lidt medvind til aktierne og svækkede EUR. ECB klar til udvidelse af opkøbsprogrammet ECB holdt som ventet renterne uændret, men nedjusterede sin prognose for både inflation og BNP-vækst for alle årene og gentog, at man er klar til at udvide og forlænge opkøbsprogrammet om nødvendigt. Draghi pointerede også, at der er risiko på nedsiden for inflationen. ECB hæver grænsen for, hvor stor en andel af en enkelt obligationsudstedelse, ECB kan holde. Det blev af nogle markedsdeltagere tolket som forspillet til en egentlig udvidelse af opkøbsprogrammet. Grænsen hæves fra 25% til 33%, hvilket øger ECB s muligheder for at købe op. Det har på det seneste knebet lidt med at holde det krævede tempo i opkøbene (se figur). Skuffende industri-ism fra USA Arbejdsmarkedsrapporten offentliggøres fredag eftermiddag, og derudover har ugen budt på offentliggørelse af de to ISM-indeks. ISM-fremstillingsindekset faldt fra 52,7 i juli til 51,1 i august, det laveste niveau i to år. Det fremadskuende underindeks for nye ordrer faldt tilmed bekymrende meget til 51,0 fra 56,5, og underindekset for beskæftigelsen faldt til 51,2 fra 52,7. ISM s serviceindeks faldt til 59,0 i august efter den højst overraskende og kraftige stigning til 60,3 i juli, som markerede den største fremgang i 10 år. Faldet i august var mindre end ventet. I weekenden indikerede Fed s Fischer i sin tale på Jackson Hole symposiet, at en renteforhøjelse i september fortsat var en mulighed. Kinas PMI under 50 holdt liv i vækstbekymringer Det officielle PMI for Kinas fremstillingssektor faldt under 50. Der var dog tale om et lille fald og på linje med konsensusestimatet. Markits fremstillings-pmi blev oprevideret til 47,3 fra 47,1 i den foreløbige opgørelse. ECB gør det lettere for sig selv at købe op Kinas officielle PMI faldt under 50 For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Ugen der kommer USA: Mere information om tilstanden på arbejdsmarkedet Det bliver en rimelig stille uge i USA hvad angår de økonomiske nøgletal, hvilket bliver hjulpet af, at finansmarkederne holder lukket mandag som følge af Labor Day. Ugen vil sandsynligvis være præget af en afpudsning af forventningerne til rentemødet i den amerikanske centralbank i den efterfølgende uge. Blandt nøgletallene vil der tirsdag være en smule fokus på NFIB s aktivitetsindeks for de mindre virksomheder. Indekset er overordnet faldet tilbage siden årsskiftet, men en lille stigning i juli betød, at indekset akkurat var over grænseværdien for fremgang og tilbagegang, som bedømmes til at være på 95,0. Vi forventer en ny stigning i august-indekset i overensstemmelse med den mere positive udvikling vi har set i forbrugertilliden samt detailsalget. Igen vi der fokus på beskæftigelsesindekset, som har peget på fortsat stabil beskæftigelsesudvikling i de seneste opgørelser. Ydermere vil vurderingen af lønudviklingen igen få ekstra opmærksomhed, ikke mindst efter at indekset steg markant i juliopgørelsen (se figur). I forbindelse med lønudviklingen vil der også være fokus på onsdagens JOLT-rappoprt. Lønudviklingen anses at udgøre en central rolle i Fed s vurdering af den ledige kapacitet i økonomien og dermed underliggende inflationstendenser. JOLT-rapporten på tilstanden på arbejdsmarkedet bød i juni på et lille fald i antallet af nye jobopslag, men niveauet er fortsat tæt på rekordhøjt. Det venter vi ikke ændret i juli-opgørelsen, og mere interessant er det nok at se på udviklingen i medarbejderopsigelserne, da disse typisk siger noget om omsætningen på arbejdsmarkedet og dermed også noget om potentielt øget lønpres. Selvom opsigelsesraten har bevæget sig sidelæns de seneste måneder, antyder niveauet fortsat, at der er plads til et større lønløft i de kommende måneder. Fredag får vi University of Michigans forbrugertillidsopgørelse for september. Her ventes en stigning, hvilket nok især baseres på den lavere tillid i august relativt til målingen fra Conference Board (CB) samt de seneste uge-målinger i Bloombergforbrugertilliden. Lavere renter, fald i benzinpriser og robust beskæftigelse vurderes at være de primære kilder bag det seneste løft i tilliden, som sendte CB s indeks uventet kraftigt op i august. Her nåede indekset det næsthøjeste niveau over de seneste otte år. Siden da har vi dog set et markant fald på aktiemarkederne, som kan have gjort husholdningerne lidt mere usikre, hvorfor vi forventer en mindre udpræget stigning i Michigan-tilliden i september. USA: NFIB s lønindeks yderligere opad?... og støttes af JOLT-opsigelsesraten USA: Aktie-dyk begrænser tillidsstigning og Bloomberg. Analytikere Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, ragu02@handelsbanken.dk, Jes Roerholt Asmussen, jeas01@handelsbanken.d Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, bjro03@handelsbanken.dk 4. september

3 Makroøkonomisk Ugefokus, 4. september 2015 Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator P eriode Survey SHB Forrige 07/09/15 Kina Foreign Reserves Aug $3580.0B $3651.3B 07/09/15 07:00 Japan Leading Index CI Jul P /09/15 08:00 Tyskland Industrial Production SA (MoM /YoY) Jul 1.1%/0.2% %/0.6% 07/09/15 09:00 Danmark Industrial Production (MoM ) Jul % 07/09/15 10:30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Sep /09/15 Kina Exports/Imports (YoY) Aug -6.5%/-8.0% %/-8.1% 08/09/15 01:01 UK BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) Aug 0.5% % 08/09/15 01:50 Japan Trade Balance BoP Basis Jul B B 08/09/15 01:50 Japan GDP SA (QoQ) 2Q F -0.4% % 08/09/15 07:00 Japan Eco Watchers Survey Outlook Aug /09/15 08:00 Tyskland Exports/Imports SA (M om ) Jul 0.5%/0.5% %/-0.8% 08/09/15 08:00 Tyskland Labor Costs SA (QoQ/YoY) 2Q %/3.2% 08/09/15 08:30 Frankrig Bank of France Bus. Sentiment Aug /09/15 08:45 Frankrig Budget Balance YTD Jul B 08/09/15 08:45 Frankrig Trade Balance Jul M 08/09/15 09:00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships Jul B 08/09/15 09:00 Danmark Current Account NSA Jul B 08/09/15 11:00 EMU GDP SA (QoQ/YoY) 2Q P 0.3%/1.2% %/1.2% 08/09/15 12:00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Aug /09/15 16:00 USA Labor Market Conditions Index Change Aug /09/15 21:00 USA Consumer Credit Jul $18.000B -- $20.740B 08/09/15 23:15 USA Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks 09/09/15 07:00 Japan Consumer Confidence Index Aug /09/15 10:30 UK Industrial Production (MoM /YoY) Jul 0.1%/1.4% %/1.5% 09/09/15 10:30 UK Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn Jul /09/15 13:00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications 04. Sep % 09/09/15 16:00 UK NIESR GDP Estimate Aug % 09/09/15 16:00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Jul /09/15 01:01 UK RICS House Price Balance Aug 46% -- 44% 10/09/15 01:50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM /YoY) Jul 3.3%/10.3% %/16.6% 10/09/15 03:30 Kina CPI (YoY) Aug 1.9% % 10/09/15 07:20 Frankrig Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 2Q F % 10/09/15 08:45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM /YoY) Jul 0.2%/ %/0.6% 10/09/15 09:00 Danmark CPI (M om /YoY) Aug %/0.7% 10/09/15 09:00 Danmark CPI Harmonized (MoM /YoY) Aug -0.1%/0.5% 10/09/15 09:00 Spanien Inustrial output NSA (YoY) Jul % 10/09/15 09:30 Sverige Average house prices Aug M 10/09/15 09:30 Sverige CPI (M om /YoY) Aug %/-0.1% 10/09/15 09:30 Sverige CPI CPIF (M om /YoY) Aug %/0.9% 10/09/15 11:00 Grækenland Unemployment rate Jun % 10/09/15 12:00 Portugal CPI (M om /YoY) Aug %/0.8% 10/09/15 13:00 UK BOE Asset Purchase Target Sep 375B B 10/09/15 13:00 UK Bank of England Bank Rate 10. Sep 0.50% % 10/09/15 14:30 USA Import Price Index (MoM /YoY) Aug -1.6%/-11.0% %/-10.4% 10/09/15 14:30 USA Initial Jobless Claims 05. Sep K 10/09/15 15:45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 06. Sep /09/15 16:00 USA Wholesale Inventories (MoM ) Jul 0.3% % 11/09/15 08:00 Tyskland Wholesale Price Index (MoM /YoY) Aug %/-0.% 11/09/15 08:00 Tyskland CPI (MoM /YoY) Aug F 0.0%/0.2% %/0.2% 11/09/15 09:00 Spanien CPI Core (MoM /YoY) Aug %/0.8% 11/09/15 09:30 Sverige Unemployment rate SA Aug % 11/09/15 09:30 Sverige GDP (QoQ/YoY) 2Q F %/3.0% 11/09/15 10:00 Italien Industrial Production (MoM /YoY) Jul 0.8%/ %/-0.3% 11/09/15 10:30 UK Construction Output SA (MoM /YoY) Jul 0.5%/0.9% %/2.6% 11/09/15 12:30 Rusland Key Rate 11. Sep 11.0% % 11/09/15 14:30 USA PPI Final Demand (MoM /YoY) Aug -0.1%/-0.8% %/-0.8% 11/09/15 14:30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM /YoY) Aug 0.1%/0.7% %/0.6% 11/09/15 16:00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Sep P /09/15 20:00 USA M onthly Budget Statement Aug -$83.6B Udvalgte finansielle skøn fra Handelsbanken Capital Markets Officielle renter 10-årig statsrenter Valuta Ultimo A ktuelt Q Q A ktuelt Q Q A ktuelt Q Q USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY Storbritannien EUR/GBP Schweiz EUR/CHF Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige EUR/SEK Norge EUR/NOK Kilde: Handelsbanken Capital Markets Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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