Morgenmelding Handelsbanken

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1 11. marts 2015 Macro Research Morgenmelding Handelsbanken Dagens fokus Det er ikke mange internationale nøgletal i kalenderen i dag med svensk inflation som den i mangel af bedre nok mest interessante. Svensk inflation har længe rodet under nul procent, men vi venter den stiger fra -0,2% y/y i januar til 0,1% y/y i februar. Konsensus venter 0,0% y/y. Får vi ret, letter det presset lidt på Riksbanken for at udvide sit relativt lille opkøbsprogram. I USA er der ikke andre nøgletal i kalenderen end de ugentlige tal for realkreditansøgninger. Til gengæld kommer der fra Danmark tal for handelsbalancen og betalingsbalancen for januar. Vareeksporten har været lidt af en akilleshæl for dansk økonomi, og det indtryk venter vi desværre ikke vil have ændret sig. Således faldt industriens omsætning på eksportmarkederne med 3% m/m i januar. Der er således ikke tegn på, at hverken den svagere handelsvægtede kronekurs eller signalerne om et spirende (om end moderat) opsving i flere af vores samhandelslande er begyndt at slå igennem på eksporten. Vi venter et fald i eksporten i omegnen af 1,25% m/m, hvormed den svagt faldene tendens i vareeksporten, vi har set over det seneste års tid, vil være intakt. Vi venter dog alligevel en stigning i overskuddet på handelsbalancen fra 6,3 mia. kr. til 7,0 mia. kr., idet vi venter en endnu større tilbagegang i importen. Det ser således ud til, at de udfordringer vi har set for industrisektoren har været større på hjemmemarkedet, hvor industriens omsætning er faldet markant siden september for i januar at være endt på det laveste niveau siden Det strider lidt imod de signaler vi ellers har om et lidt stærkere indenlandsk opsving. Det er også et signal om, at væksten i dansk økonomi stadig ikke buldrer derudaf. Endvidere venter vi at overskuddet på betalingsbalancen falder fra 12,0 mia. kr. til 8,5 mia. kr. i januar, primært trukket af en sæsonbestemt stigning i de løbende overførsler til udlandet. DK: Fald i både import og eksport Kilde: Macrobond Højdepunkter siden sidst Markederne: Aktiemarkederne faldt generelt i går, mens EUR fortsatte sin svækkelse over for USD. Obligationsrenterne havde pilen nedad. Kina: Både detailomsætning, industiproduktion og investeringer skuffede i januar/februar. De to måneders data var lagt sammen for at undgå skævvridning på grund af det kinesiske nytår. Industriproduktionsvæksten faldt til kun 6,8% y/y fra 8,5% y/y i december. Der var kun ventet et fald til 7,7% y/y. Opbremsningen økonomien ser således ud til at tage til, og der vil nok snart komme flere lempelsestiltag fra myndighederne for at understøtte økonomien. USA: Fed s Fischer, som er på vej ud af FOMC, opfordrede i går sine kollegaer til at forhøje renten tidligt men langsomt frem for sent men hurtigt. NFIB s aktivitetsindekset for de mindre virksomheder steg til 98,0 i februar, stort set uændret fra 97,9 i januar.. Konsensus havde ventet en lille stigning til 99. Stabiliseringen kommer efter indekset faldt tilbage i januar efter i december at have nået det højeste niveau siden De mindre virksomheder er i højere grad end de store eksponeret over for den indenlandske sektor. Beskæftigelsesindekset faldt lidt fra 14 point til 12 point. JOLT-rapporten viste en lidt mindre stigning end ventet i antallet af nye jobopslag i januar, men da de samtidig var nedrevideringer af de foregående måneder, tegner indikatoren fortsat et billede af et arbejdsmarked i flot fremgang (se figur). JOLT s opgørelse af opsigelser er også steget pænt de seneste måneder, og målt på denne rapport er aktiviteten rigelig høj til at Fed isoleret på denne baggrund bør overveje at hæve renten snarest. Euroområdet: ECB fortsatte sine obligationsopkøb under det nye program i går, og unavngivne kilder har overfor Bloomberg bekræftet, at der bl.a. også er blevet købt op i obligationer med negativ rente. Håndteringen af tab på sådanne opkøb har været et diskussionspunkt forud for opstarten af programmet. ECB har bekræftet, at der er købt for 3,2 mia. EUR i alt i mandags Danmark: Inflationen steg som ventet tilbage over nul til 0,2% y/y i februar efter deflationen ramte Danmark i årets første måned, hvor årsstigningstakten i forbrugerpriserne for første gang siden 1954 endte i negativt territorium. Det er bl.a. indregningen af den årlige huslejeundersøgelse, som trækker opad. Huslejeinflationen er således tiltaget fra 1,8% y/y til 1,9%, og bidrager nu med 0,4 procentpoint til den samlede inflation. Dagens tal bekræfter os i, at bekymringen for en ondartet deflationsspiral er overdreven, og vi ser for indeværende ikke risiko for en langvarig periode med faldende priser til skade for forbrugs- og investeringsbeslutninger. Selv om vi bevæger os væk fra decideret faldende priser, er inflationspresset dog fortsat meget svagt. Vi ser stadig, at inflationen kun vil stige meget gradvist igennem året, givet energipriserne ikke viser for store udsving. Det betyder også, at der stadig er udsigt til en periode hvor reallønnen vil udvikle sig positivt for husholdningerne med deraf afledt stigende købekraft. USA: Fortsat gode tegn fra arbejdsmarkedet Kilde: Macrobond For full disclaimer and definitions, please refer to the end of this report.

2 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. marts 2015 Markedskommentarer Aktier OMXC20 CAP (-0,19% / indeks 942,10) endte i negativt territorium om end, at faldet var en smule mindre end blandt de resterende aktiemarkeder i Europa. Den negative stemning er drevet af centralbankmedlemmet Rickard Fishers udtalelser om, at han ser renteforhøjelser i USA tidligere end markedet havde forventet. I toppen af indekset endte Novo Nordisk (+1,68% / kurs 326,00) efter et internationalt finanshus var ude og hæve kursmålet på aktien. I den anden ende af indekset endte blandt andet A.P. Møller-Mærsk (-1,17% / kurs ,00) efter prisen på brintolie nu er faldet for femte dag i træk. Dagens kursmæssige taber blev TDC (-2,39% / kurs 50,95) dog uden selskabsspecifikke nyheder. Renter De europæiske statsrenter faldt i går i takt med at ECB fortsatte sine opkøb under det nye opkøbsprogram. Unavngivne kilder har overfor Bloomberg bekræftet, at der bl.a. også er blevet købt op i obligationer med negativ rente, og ECB har bekræftet, at der er købt for 3,2 mia. EUR i alt i mandags. Håndteringen af tab på opkøb med negativ rente har været et diskussionspunkt forud for opstarten af programmet. ECB s De fleste eurolandes statsrenter nåede således nye rekordlave niveauer i går. Kun de græske statsrenter faldt ikke i går, idet der ikke kun nyt ud fra EU s finansministermøde i Bruxelles, som kunne hjælpe Grækenland. EU holder fast i at Grækenland skal se at komme i gang med reformagendaen og i øvrigt skal lade EU s folk få indsigt i de faktiske forhold i Grækenland. De amerikanske statsrenter faldt også i går trukket af de tyske og europæiske, men de faldt ikke ligeså meget. Forventningen til den første renteforhøjelse blev nok også rykket fremad i går, bl.a. på grund af udtalelser fra Fed s Fischer, som blev opfattet som høgeagtige. Valuta EUR svækkedes i går mens ECB s obligationsopkøb fortsatte og forventningen til den første Fed-renteforhøjelse nok blev rykket lidt frem på grund af udtalelser fra Fed s Fischer, som blev opfattet som høgeagtige. ECB har bekræftet, at der blev købt for 3,2 mia. EUR i mandags, og unavngivne kilder bekræftede, at opkøbene fortsatte i går. Også den fortsatte uro om Grækenlands situation var nok med til at presse EUR svagere. JPY blev svækket i går over for USD i takt med globale aktiekursfald. GBP lagde sig i midten af den markante EUR/USD-bevægelse sådan at GBP blev styrket over for EUR men svækket over for USD. Svækkelsen af en lang række Emerging Markets valutaer især i Latinamerika fortsatte i går. Dagens finansielle nøgletal Aktier Valuta 10-årige renter Råvarer Aktuelt %-Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt Ændring Aktuelt %-Ændring OMXC20CAP 942,1-0,19 USD/JPY 121,5-0,290 USA 2,14-0,06 CRB 216,0-1,49 Stoxx ,7-0,90 EUR/USD 1,068-0,012 Euroområdet 0,23-0,08 Brent oil (1M fut) 56,9-2,90 FTSE 6702,8-2,52 USD/DKK 6,978 0,079 Danmark 0,28-0,07 Gold (spot) 1161,8-0,14 S&P ,2-1,70 CHF/DKK 6,985 0,016 Nasdaq 4859,8-1,67 GBP/DKK 10,516 0,109 Hang Seng 23847,4-0,21 SEK/DKK 0,814 0,003 Nikkei 18823,8 0,85 NOK/DKK 0,860-0,007 Alle tal er opgjort ca. kl. 7:30 i dag med ændringer fra foregående handelsdag ca. kl. 7:30 Handelsbankens finansielle forventninger Officielle renter 10-årig statsobligationer Valuta Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. Aktuelt +3 mdr. +6 mdr. +12 mdr. USA EUR/USD Euroland USD/JPY UK USD/DKK Danmark EUR/DKK Sverige SEK/DKK Norge NOK/DKK

3 Morgenmelding Handelsbanken, 11. marts 2015 Kommende begivenheder Aktiekalender, vigtige danske regnskaber Dato Selskab Regnskab Royal Unibrew Årsregnskab G4S Årsregnskab Bavarian Nordic Årsregnskab ISS Årsregnskab Zealand Pharma Årsregnskab Økonomisk kalender Dato Tid Land Indikator Periode Survey SHB Forrige Faktisk :50 Japan BoP Current Account Adjusted Jan B B B :50 Japan GDP SA QoQ 4Q F 0.5% % 0.4% :00 Tyskland Exports SA MoM Jan -1.4% % -0.3% :30 EMU Sentix Investor Confidence Mar :00 EMU Euro-Area Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels :05 USA Fed's Kocherlakota, Mester Speaks :30 Kina CPI YoY Feb 1.0% % 1.4% :30 Kina PPI YoY Feb -4.4% % -4.8% :45 Schweiz Unemployment Rate SA Feb 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% :45 Frankrig Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jan -0.3% %/-0.1% 0.4%/0.6% :00 Danmark CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.9%/0.2% 0.9%/0.2% -0.5%/-0.1% 1.0%/0.2% :00 Danmark CPI EU Harmonized (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.8%/-0.1% 1.0%/0.2% -0.6%/-0.3% 0.9%/0.0% :00 EMU EU Finance Ministers Hold Meeting in Brussels :00 Norge CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb %/2.0% 0.4%/1.9% :00 Norge CPI Underlying (MoM/YoY) Feb -- /2.4% -0.1%/2.4% 0.5%/2.4% :00 USA NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb :00 USA JOLTS Job Openings Jan Kina Aggregate Financing CNY Feb B B Kina New Yuan Loans CNY Feb 750.0B B :50 Japan Machine Orders (MoM/YoY) -4.0%/-1.0% %/11.4% -1.7%/1.9% :30 Kina Retail Sales YTD YoY Feb 11.6% % 10.7% :30 Kina Industrial Production YTD YoY Feb 7.7% 8.5% 7.9% 6.8% :00 Danmark Trade Balance ex Ships 7.0B 7.0B 6.3B :00 Danmark Current Account Balance 9.1B 8.5B 12B :30 Sverige CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.5%/0.0% 0.7%/0.1% -1.1%/-0.2% :30 Sverige CPI CPIF (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.7%/0.7% 0.8%/0.8% -1.0%/0.6% :30 UK Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) Jan 0.3%/1.4% %/0.5% :00 USA MBA Mortgage Applications mar % :01 UK RICS House Price Balance Feb 6,0% -- 0, :00 Tyskland CPI (MoM/YoY) 0.9%/0.1% %/0.1% :45 Frankrig CPI (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.6%/-0.4% %/-0.4% :30 Sverige Unemployment Rate SA 7.7% 7.7% 7.9% :00 EMU Industrial Production (MoM/YoY) 0.2%/0.1% %/-0.2% :30 USA Retail Sales Advance (MoM) 0.4% 0.5% -0.8% :30 USA Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM :30 USA Retail Sales Control Group (MoM) Feb 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% :30 USA Initial Jobless Claims K :30 USA Import Price Index (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.1%/-9.3% %/-8.0% :30 USA Import Price Index YoY Feb -9.3% % :45 USA Bloomberg Consumer Comfort mar :30 USA PPI Final Demand (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.3%/0.0% %/0.0% :30 USA PPI Ex Food and Energy (MoM/YoY) Feb 0.1%/1.6% %/1.6% :00 USA U. of Mich. Sentiment Mar P Jes Asmussen (jeas01@handelsbanken.dk); Rasmus Gudum-Sessingø, (ragu02@handelsbanken.dk); Bjarke Roed-Frederiksen, (bjro03@handelsbanken.dk) Ansvarsfraskrivelse: Kilderne anvendt i dette materiale anses for pålidelige, men Handelsbanken påtager sig ikke ansvar for, at oplysningerne er nøjagtige og fuldkomne. Analyserne i dette materiale skal ikke opfattes som tilbud om køb eller salg af de pågældende værdipapirer, valutaer og/eller finansielle kontrakter. Alle vurderinger og estimater gælder pr. den anførte dato og kan ændres uden forudgående varsel. Handelsbanken påtager sig intet ansvar for eventuelle dispositioner foretaget på baggrund af materialet. Enhver form for offentliggørelse eller gengengivelse af Handelsbanken materiale må kun finde sted mod forudgående aftale. 3

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