The Danish Energy Strategy 2025 & the Danish Power Infrastructure

Transkript

1 The Danish Energy Strategy 2025 & the Danish Power Infrastructure How Energinet.dk takes the Challenge Antje Orths NORDEL UPS UCTE 1

2 Agenda The Danish Power System brief overview Danish Energy Strategy 2025: - Requirements - ENDK s Simulations (applying Scenarios, Tools, Methods) Perspective 2

3 Present challenges with the Danish Electricity System worldwide highest wind penetration high share of large and small scale CHP transit area between hydro and thermal small price areas in large markets Boundary: hydro/thermal 500 TWh Boundary: Nordel/UCTE Boundary: NordPool and Continental market systems

4 Danish Energy Policy Danish Plan for Offshore Wind Parks strong demand for cables also on 400 kv level -> how should the long-term grid structure be like? Doubling of wind power capacity to cover 50% of the demand! Economically ranked locations for MW 4

5 Power Balance 2007 Central power plants Local plants Two synchronous areas: Wind turbines 1000/950 MW West: Consumption 620/620 MW MW Central power plants 3400 MW Local CHP units 1700 MW Wind turbines 2400 MW 4100 MW penetration Wind: % ex: 41 of prod. CHP: % im: 70 of cons. 1300/1700 MW East: Consumption MW Central power plants 3800 MW Local CHP units 650 MW Wind turbines 750 MW 1400 MW penetration Wind: 28 83% ex: 43 of prod. CHP: 24 72% im: 69 of cons. 950/1500 MW 19. September ANO Danish Energy Strategy IEA Task 25 Meeting, Oslo 550 MW 5 im-/ export [MW]

6 [%] Energy Balance 2005 of cons. West [TWh] 50 Central; 10,6 Consumption; 21 [%] of cons. East [TWh] 28 Local CHP; 6 58 Central; 8,4 24 (-2) Wind; 5 Import; 7,4 Export; 7, (13) Local CHP; 2,5 Wind; 1,6 Import; 5,6 Consumption; 14,4 Export; 3,6 6

7 The Danish transmission system and offshore windparks Discussed Discussed Future Future Locations Locations Areal Areal ca. ca km km 2 2 Power Power ca. ca MW MW Norge Norge MW MW Bredkær Starbakke Bredkær Starbakke Sverige 740 Sverige 740 MW Bagsværdgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Bagsværdgård Hvorupgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Måløvgård Glentegård Fredensdal Hvorupgård + Måløvgård Glentegård Klim Fjordholme Fredensdal 3,000 3,000 MW MW Svanemølleværket FrøstrupKlim Fjordholme Skansen Vester Hassing Bellahøj Svanemølleværket Frøstrup Håndværkervej Skansen Vendsysselværket Vester Hassing Bellahøj kbst Ballerupgård Lindevang Amagerværket Nors Håndværkervej Ådalen Ålborg Vendsysselværket Øst kbst Ballerupgård Dyregård Lindevang Nors Ådalen Ålborg Øst Amagerværket Vilsted Dyregård Ejbygård Vilsted Ferslev Vejleå Ejbygård Ferslev H. C. Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Vejleå Brøndbygård Vigerslev kbst H. C. Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Tinghøj Ishøj Brøndbygård Kastrup kbst. Vigerslev kbst Tinghøj Ishøj Avedøreværket Amager kbst Kastrup kbst. Amager kbst Bilstrup Flaskegård Avedøreværket Bilstrup Flaskegård Struer Loldrup Hornbæk Mesballe København Tjele Hornbæk Moselund Mesballe Åstrup Struer Loldrup København Tjele Moselund Åstrup Tange Tange Idomlund Studstrupværket Studstrup- Sverige Idomlund Trige Trige Mollerup værket Sverige MW Bjørnholt Hasle Mollerup Herning MW Bjørnholt Hasle Videbæk Herning Høskov Videbæk Hørning Høskov Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Hørning Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Borup Sperrestrupgård Kyndbyværket Borup Stasevang Askær Malling Sperrestrupgård Ølstykkegård Malling Kyndbyværket Stasevang Allerødgård Nr. Asmindrup Askær Ølstykkegård Stovstrup Thyregod Hatting Gørløsegård Allerødgård Nr. Asmindrup Thyregod Stovstrup Sdr. Felding Hatting Lyngerup Gørløsegård Sdr. Felding Skibbygård Lyngerup Kalundborg Torslunde Knabberup Skibbygård Hovegård Kalundborg Torslunde Knabberup Asnæsværket Asnæs- Kirkeskovgård Kamstrup Kamstrup Karlsgårde Hovegård Landerupgård Karlsgårde Revsing Landerupgård Ryttergård værket Kirkeskovgård Mosedegård Revsing Ryttergård Nyrup Jersie Mosedegård Estrupvej Endrup Andst Graderup Fynsværket Estrupvedrup Endrup Nyrup Spanager AndstBram-Skærbæk- værket Skærbæk- Hejninge Bjæverskov Spanager Graderup Fynsværket Jersie Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård Bramdrup Holsted Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård værket Holsted Fraugde Hejninge 50 kvbjæverskov Horns Rev Tyrstrup Kingstrup 50 kv Fraugde Rislev Haslev Horns A Rev Ribe Tyrstrup Kingstrup Magstrup Fensmark Rislev Haslev A Ribe Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 160 MW Magstrup Fensmark Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 160 MW Næstved Blangslev Østerholm Øster- Næstved Blangslev Svendborg holm Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Svendborg Masnedøværket Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Orehoved Masnedøværket Sverige Sverige Sønderborg Orehoved Eskilstrup Sønderborg Radsted Eskilstrup Vestlolland Radsted Idestrup 60 kv Vestlolland Idestrup 60 kv German plans plans (DENA (DENA study) study) 2020: Tyskland 2020: Tyskland MW MW + 20,000 MW MW (North & Baltic BalticSea) Skagerrak Skagerrak Governmental Energy Strategy 2025: 2025: Konti-Skan 7 Konti-Skan 132/50 kv Rødby Rødby 132/50 kv Nysted 165 Nysted MW 165 MW 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132 kv 132 kv Kontek Kontek Tyskland 600 Tyskland MW 600 MW

8 The Danish transmission system need for a stronger grid existing planned discussed Norge Norge MW MW Bredkær Starbakke Bredkær Starbakke Sverige 740 Sverige MW 740 MW Bagsværdgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Bagsværdgård Hvorupgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Måløvgård Glentegård Fredensdal Hvorupgård Måløvgård Glentegård Klim Fjordholme Fredensdal Svanemølleværket FrøstrupKlim Fjordholme Skansen Vester Hassing Bellahøj Svanemølleværket Frøstrup Håndværkervej Skansen Vendsysselværket Vester Hassing Bellahøj kbst Ballerupgård Lindevang Amagerværket Nors Håndværkervej Ådalen Ålborg Vendsysselværket Øst kbst Ballerupgård Dyregård Lindevang Nors Ådalen Ålborg Øst Amagerværket Vilsted Dyregård Ejbygård Vilsted Ferslev Vejleå Ejbygård Ferslev H. C. Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Vejleå Brøndbygård Vigerslev kbst H. C. Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Tinghøj Ishøj Brøndbygård Kastrup kbst. Vigerslev kbst Tinghøj Ishøj Avedøreværket Amager kbst Kastrup kbst. Amager kbst Bilstrup Flaskegård Avedøreværket Bilstrup Flaskegård Struer Loldrup Hornbæk Mesballe København Tjele Hornbæk Moselund Mesballe Åstrup Struer Loldrup København Tjele Moselund Åstrup Tange Tange Idomlund Studstrupværket Studstrup- Sverige Idomlund Trige Trige Mollerup værket Sverige MW Bjørnholt Hasle Mollerup Herning MW Bjørnholt Hasle Videbæk Herning Høskov Videbæk Hørning Høskov Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Hørning Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Borup Sperrestrupgård Borup Stasevang Askær Malling Kyndbyværket Sperrestrupgård Ølstykkegård Malling Kyndbyværket Stasevang Allerødgård Nr. Asmindrup Askær Ølstykkegård Stovstrup Thyregod Hatting Gørløsegård Allerødgård Nr. Asmindrup Thyregod Stovstrup Sdr. Felding Hatting Lyngerup Gørløsegård Sdr. Felding Skibbygård Torslunde Lyngerup Knabberup Kalundborg Skibbygård Hovegård Torslunde Knabberup Kalundborg Asnæsværket Asnæs- Kirkeskovgård Kamstrup Kamstrup Karlsgårde Hovegård Landerupgård Karlsgårde Revsing Landerupgård Ryttergård værket Kirkeskovgård Mosedegård Revsing Ryttergård Nyrup Jersie Mosedegård Estrupvej Endrup Andst Graderup Fynsværket Estrupvedrup Endrup Nyrup Spanager Jersie AndstBram-Skærbæk- værket Skærbæk- Hejninge Bjæverskov Spanager Graderup Fynsværket Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård Bramdrup Holsted Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård værket Holsted Fraugde Hejninge 50 kvbjæverskov Horns Rev Tyrstrup Kingstrup 50 kv Fraugde Haslev Horns Rev Ribe Tyrstrup Kingstrup Rislev A Magstrup Fensmark Rislev Haslev A Ribe Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 160 MW Magstrup Fensmark Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 160 MW Næstved Blangslev Østerholm Øster- Næstved Blangslev Svendborg holm Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Svendborg Masnedøværket Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Orehoved Masnedøværket Sverige Sverige Sønderborg Orehoved Eskilstrup Sønderborg Eskilstrup Vestlolland strong demand for cables Radsted also 60 Idestrup on 400 kv level Vestlolland Idestrup 60 kv Skagerrak Skagerrak Konti-Skan Konti-Skan Rødby Rødby -> how should the long-term grid structure be like? Tyskland Tyskland MW Tyskland MW Nysted 600 Tyskland MW 165 Nysted MW 600 MW 165 MW 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132 kv 132 kv Kontek Kontek 8

9 The optimization challenge of system planning competition - sustainability security of supply The task: Development of a robust and long-term electricity infrastructure, which, at any time, supports - the desired security of supply, Market - function of the electricity market and - environmental targets. Focus and balance between these considerations change and so does the socio-economic framework. Security of Environment supply Socio-economy Decision of new device Known prerequisites Commissioning Technical livetime 0-6 år 3-15 år år 9

10 Energinet.dk s System Analyses at present and the coming months Energinet.dk prepares outlining a solution space where the task of integration of large-scale of renewable energy can be solved without compromising with the facilitating of market, security of supply and visual environment. 10

11 The Danish government's visionary energy strategy converted to concrete analyses How do the announced aims at more RE influence the grid? - Sufficiency of power, energy and transport capacity - More wind reduced utilization of grid for local and CHP unit /changed distribution between base load and peak load electrical heaters, heat pumps, etc. - Demand for ancillary services (more wind power larger operation reserves) - Consequences for plans for grid expansion and system architecture - Socio-economics System Plan

12 +3000 MW : 50 % supply plan with wind in 2025 Integration of extra MW wind power? MW Demand Demand Wind power Wind power Minimum controllable power generation Today Minimum controllable power generation MW Uge Optimal utilization of international power markets and domestic flexibility to maintain security of supply and to maximize value of wind power! 12

13 Utilization of domestic control possibilities - both, for security of supply and economic aspects! MW Wind Prediction Day-Ahead price DKK/MWh MW DKK 1 23 February Wind Prediction Day-Ahead Price February January 2005 Decentral combined heat and Power (CHP) units start to operate according to price signals (~ 1.2 GW) Effektive control of CHP units according to markets price signals helps security of supply and economics 13

14 Planning Process for Infrastrukturprojekts Prerequisites and Framework Law and Requirements from Authorities Neighbours Requirements Systemplan & Longterm System Structure Operation and Market Conditions Consumption Production Exchange Analysis and Evaluation of Alternatives Grid Dimensioning Principles Grid Analysis and Identification of Congestions Reliability Marked Environment Solustion Possibilities Short- /Longterm and Robust Decision Phase incl. overall evaluation of Alternatives Socio-Economic & Risk Evaluation Business Case Choice of a Solution Decision Scenarios Device Project 14

15 High Demand for Analysis and Tools Energinet.dk s toolbox within the Planning Department Forecasts / Scenarios / Principles for Grid Design System Analysis Tools (stationary and dynamic) - Sufficiency of Power, Energy and Grid - Ancillary Service and Reserves - Development of new System Architekture involving Local Grids Tools for Analysis of Market - Congestions, Market Power, Prices, Power & Energy Exchanges etc. Methods for Quanitification and Evaluation of Externalities - Operational Security, Emissions, Visual Impact. Business cases and Risk Assessment 15

16 Analysis Tools Tool Fokus Supplier Sivael Samkøringsmodellen Samlast MARS Metris/ Assess MAPS PowerFactory PSS/E PowerWorld Danish Electric and Heat System, hourly based Interaction between hydro power and thermal production in the Nordic System Addition to Samkøøringsmodellen Market Power in the Nordic El-market Danish Reliability with respect to grid limitation Reliability in the Nordic System with respect to capacity limits Tool for Grid analysis (loadflow, short circuit, harmonics, stability, eigenvalues) Tool for Grid analysis (loadflow, short cirtuit, stability ) Visualisation of loadflow Own development Sintef/Powell Sintef/Powell Own development RTE Vattenfall DigSilent Siemens-PTI PowerWorld Corp. 16

17 Scenarios a structured visualisation of Energinet.dk s future visions Traditional method: Traditionally: Long-term investment decisions are based on a cost-benefit analysis (business case) relying on single forecasts of electricity & heat consumption etc. Target: Scenarios deliver our best guess on the future in 2030 and are applied to prove important long term and strategic decisions. Environment high priority national focus, environment: high priority international focus, environment: high priority Scenario 4 Primarily national focus national focus, environment: low priority international focus, environment: low priority Primarily international focus Scenario Scenario 3 Environment lower priority Scenario 2 17

18 Systemplan Danish Strategy: reduction of use of fossil fuels by 15% (from 2006) stagnation of total energy consumption increase of energy saving to 1,25% annually increase of use of renewable energy sources to at least 30% promotion of research, development and demonstration of new technologies and increase of use of bio fuels in the transport sector to 10% 18

19 Bedsted Hvorupgård Fredensdal Klim Fjordholme Frøstrup Skansen Håndværkervej Nors Ådalen Struer Idomlund Videbæk Stovstrup Studstrupværket Mollerup Karlsgårde Estrupvej Lykkegård Revsing Endrup Holsted Bredebro Ribe Vilsted Bilstrup Loldrup Herning Sdr. Felding Andst Kassø Mosbæk Askær Thyregod Nibstrup Bjørnholt Hørning Knabberup Hatting Landerupgård Ryttergård Malling Magstrup Tjele Tange Enstedværket Bredkær Ferslev Tinghøj Trige Abildskov Sønderborg Vester Hassing Vendsysselværket Ålborg Øst Hornbæk Mesballe Moselund Sperrestrupgård Kyndbyværket Ølstykkegård Nr. Asmindrup Graderup Bram-Skærbækdruværket Tyrstrup Kingstrup Hasle Høskov Mårslet Starbakke Dybvad Fynsværket Odense Sydøst Hejninge Fraugde Svendborg Åstrup Stigsnæsværket Kalundborg Asnæsværket Næstved Østerholm Torslunde Vestlolland Kirkeskovgård Rødby Bagsværdgård Hareskovgård Måløvgård Glentegård Svanemølleværket Bellahøj kbst Ballerupgård Lindevang Amagerværket Dyregård Ejbygård Vejleå H. C. Ørsted Værket Brøndbygård Vigerslev kbst Ishøj Kastrup kbst. Amager kbst Avedøreværket Flaskegård Valseværket Lyngerup Skibbygård Hovegård Kamstrup Ringsted Rislev Orehoved Radsted Nyrup Borup Jersie Spanager Bjæverskov 50 kv Haslev Fensmark Blangslev Masnedøværket Eskilstrup Idestrup Mosedegård Teglstrupgård Stasevang Allerødgård Gørløsegård 60 kv Some of our objectives Secure Electricity and Gas supply - quantification of indices - more production units - solve the task of Power Balance & lots of wind Combination of Measures FRUKT Balance Agreement, Implementation 2009 Market Coupling NORDEL Germay Trans-Border Trade of System Service Research and Development - e.g. ECOGRID - cable contra overhead line Horns Rev A 160 MW Norge MW Skagerrak Tyskland MW Konti-Skan Sverige 740 MW Nysted 165 MW varying, depending on actual wind situation 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132 kv Kontek København Tyskland 600 MW Sverige MW Sverige 19

20 Bedsted Hvorupgård Fredensdal Klim Fjordholme Frøstrup Skansen Håndværkervej Nors Ådalen Struer Idomlund Videbæk Stovstrup Studstrupværket Mollerup Karlsgårde Estrupvej Lykkegård Revsing Endrup Holsted Bredebro Ribe Vilsted Bilstrup Loldrup Herning Sdr. Felding Andst Kassø Mosbæk Askær Thyregod Nibstrup Bjørnholt Hørning Knabberup Hatting Landerupgård Ryttergård Malling Magstrup Tjele Tange Enstedværket Bredkær Ferslev Tinghøj Trige Abildskov Sønderborg Vester Hassing Vendsysselværket Ålborg Øst Hornbæk Mesballe Moselund Sperrestrupgård Kyndbyværket Ølstykkegård Nr. Asmindrup Graderup Bram-Skærbækdruværket Tyrstrup Kingstrup Hasle Høskov Mårslet Starbakke Dybvad Fynsværket Odense Sydøst Hejninge Fraugde Svendborg Åstrup Stigsnæsværket Kalundborg Asnæsværket Næstved Østerholm Torslunde Vestlolland Kirkeskovgård Rødby Bagsværdgård Hareskovgård Måløvgård Glentegård Svanemølleværket Bellahøj kbst Ballerupgård Lindevang Amagerværket Dyregård Ejbygård Vejleå H. C. Ørsted Værket Brøndbygård Vigerslev kbst Ishøj Kastrup kbst. Amager kbst Avedøreværket Flaskegård Valseværket Lyngerup Skibbygård Hovegård Kamstrup Ringsted Rislev Orehoved Radsted Nyrup Borup Jersie Spanager Bjæverskov 50 kv Haslev Fensmark Blangslev Masnedøværket Eskilstrup Idestrup Mosedegård Teglstrupgård Stasevang Allerødgård Gørløsegård 60 kv Horns Rev A 160 MW Systemplan 2007 Simulation Prerequisites Norge MW Electricity and District heat: - Increase of Consumption: 36 TWh (2006) -> 38,2 TWh (2025) including 0,4 TWh to new heat pumps - Increase of District Heat: 118 PJ (2006) -> 137 PJ (2025) Interconnections Skagerrak - Reference Scenario: STB 1 (600 MW 2010) - Alternative Scenario 1: STB 2 (600 MW 2018); Konti-Skan Sverige 740 MW 132/50 kv 132/50 kv 132 kv København Sverige MW Sverige SK4 (600 MW 2013), Tyskl (2000 MW 2015, 2500 MW 2025) varying, depending on actual wind situation Tyskland MW Nysted 165 MW Kontek Tyskland 600 MW 20

21 Systemplan 2007 Simulation Prerequisites Prices - Extrapolation of Coal and Oil prices based on IEA`s World Energy Outlook, and Danish Energy Authorities Prerequisites for socio-economic Analyses concerning Energy jan CO2-quote price = 20 /t, - Electricity Price 0,53 ct/kwh (referring to Electricity Forecasts) Production Park Reference is Danish Energy Authorities Extrapolation MW central power plants MW CHP units MW onshore wind power MW offshore wind power 2005: 6,11 TWh wind 2025: 40,5 TWh wind 21

22 Sivael Another el-production Foreign Country El-Storage El- productions- Device El-transmissionssystem El-Consumption CHP Device Heat Pump Another Heat production Heat Production Device Heat- transmissionssystem Heat Consumption Heat Storage 22

23 Characteristics of Backpressure Devices El (MW) Extraction Area Backpressure Curve Heat (MJ/s) Fuel Consumption Curve Fuel Consumption (GJ/h) Variable Costs kr/h Coal Oil Elproduction (MW) Elproduction (MW) 23

24 Processes during simulation Revision Planning for El- production Devices: Gram-Charlier foldning Havarimodel: Exponential Distribution Week-optimization on hourly basis, minimizing the total operation costs : Lagrangerelaxation Dynamic Programming 24

25 Criteria- Function: Minimize the total operation costs min K ( PO( p( i, t), q( i, t) + SO( i, t, p( i), q( i) ) + PO( p( u, t)) + t i u w PO( p( s, t)) + PO( q( v, t)) V ( p( x, t))) = s PO: Produktion Costs SO: Start Costs V: value t: index for hour (time) i: index for produktion device u: index for foreign country (udland) w: index for wind s: index for el- storage v: index for heat pump (varmepumpe) x: index for flexibel el consumption v x PO( p( w, t)) + 25

26 Sivael - Results Production & Operation Data Costs, Environmental Data Fuel Consumption Electricity Demand and production Heat Demand and production (shadow prices are used during optimization, not as result) 26

27 Systemplan 2007 Investigation of Consequences Energy Balance Fuel Consumption Emissions System Service - Control of Balance between Production & Demand - Different types of reserves: - Frequency controlled automatic reserve - automatic LFC reserve - manual reserve For example time: :00 - Market for Regulation Capacity - Systemtechnical Reserves (reactive res; minimum number of central power plants; blackstart units) MWh Forbrug Produktion Mangel-overløb Udveksling, kontinentet Udveksling, norden Produktion, vind Produktion, dec. Produktion, centrale Forbrug, vp+elk. Forbrug, normal 27

28 Systemplan 2007 Investigation of Consequences Power Balance Electricity Grid - result: map of congestions and their durations, e.g. like this: maybe like this? calculations not yet finished! 28

29 Systemplan 2007 Test of Mitigation Methods Matrix of Methods and their Effect, e.g.: Method Energy Grid System Power Balance Service Balance Change PCC of WP EMS Conductor Material Increase Grid Capacity El-Car

30 Preparing the future To ensure Security of Supply and maximum value of dispersed generation we have to: Add transmission capacity Sustain Strong International Cooperation use tools and methods considering uncertainty develop suitable grid codes and market design optimizing provision of system services Develop a new power system architecture increasing security for local grids Use market price signals for system control Promote Price responsive electricity demand Promote new electricity applications 30

31 Thank you! Horns Rev 31