Increase from 20% to 50% Wind Energy Coverage

Transkript

1 Increase from 2% to 5% Wind Energy Coverage Challenges and Approaches Antje Orths 1 Agenda The Danish Power System brief overview Danish Energy Strategy 225: - Requirements - Results of Recent Investigations Perspective 2 1

2 Present challenges with the Danish Electricity System one of areas with worldwide highest wind penetration high share of large and small scale CHP transit area between hydro and thermal small price areas in large markets Boundary: hydro/thermal 5 TWh Boundary: Nordel/UCTE Boundary: NordPool and Continental market systems Challenges of the Future and Danish Reality NORDEL UPS UCTE source: European SMARTGRIDS Technology Platform EUR 224,

3 Power Balance 27 Energy Coverage: West: 24% ; East: 11% Central power plants Local plants Two synchronous areas: Wind turbines Future: Σ 5 % West: 1/95 MW 62/62 MW Consumption MW Central power plants 34 MW Local CHP units 17 MW 41 MW Wind turbines 24 MW penetration Wind: % ex: 41 of prod CHP: % im: 7 of cons 13/17 MW East: Consumption 9-27 MW Central power plants 38 MW Local CHP units Wind turbines 65 MW 75 MW 14 MW penetration Wind: 28 83% CHP: 24 72% ex: 43 of prod im: 69 of cons 95/15 MW 55 MW im-/ export [MW] 5 Portugal: 1-12 GW peak, up to 5 GW wind (5 %) Recent studies: levels of wind power studied Ireland: 9 GW peak, up to 6 GW wind (6%) UK: 65 GW peak, up to 26 GW wind (4 %) Nordic: 69 GW peak load, up to 2 GW wind (29 %) Denmark: 7 GW peak, up to 6 GW wind (9 %) Germany: 78 GW peak, up Netherlands: to 36 GW wind (46 %) 25 GW peak, up to 1 GW wind (4 %) wwwieawindorg 6 3

4 Recent studies in the USA Minnesota: 6 GW of wind in 2 GW peak load system (3 %) New York: 33 GW of wind in 33 GW peak load system (1 %) Colorado 14 GW in 7 GW peak load system (2 %) California: 125 GW in 64 GW peak load system (2 %) Texas: 15 GW in 65 GW peak load system (23 %) 7 Different ways of presenting the penetration level Several Types of Penetration Level % of DK-W DK 225 a) DK 225 b) IR 22 PT UK DE 215 ES 211 S today in future peak load min load gross demand (min load + intercon) 8 4

5 5 kv 5 kv 5 kv 5 kv The Danish transmission system and offshore windparks Discussed Discussed Future Future Locations Locations Areal Areal ca ca km km 2 2 Power Power ca ca 2 2 MW MW 35 km Norge 1 Norge MW 1 MW Bredkær Starbakke Bredkær Starbakke Sverige 74 Sverige MW 74 MW Bagsværdgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Bagsværdgård Hvorupgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Måløvgård Glentegård Fredensdal Hvorupgård + Måløvgård Glentegård Klim Fjordholme Fredensdal 3, 3, MW MW Svanemølleværket FrøstrupKlim Fjordholme Skansen Vester Hassing Bellahøj Svanemølleværket Frøstrup Håndværkervej Skansen Vendsysselværket Vester Hassing Bellahøj kbst Ballerupgård Lindevang Amagerværket Nors Håndværkervej Ådalen Ålborg Vendsysselværket Øst kbst Ballerupgård Dyregård Lindevang Nors Ådalen Ålborg Øst Amagerværket Vilsted Dyregård Ejbygård Vilsted Ferslev Vejleå Ejbygård Ferslev H C Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Vejleå Brøndbygård Vigerslev kbst H C Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Tinghøj Ishøj Brøndbygård Kastrup kbst Vigerslev kbst Tinghøj Ishøj Amager kbst Kastrup kbst Avedøreværket Amager kbst Avedøreværket Bilstrup Flaskegård Bilstrup Flaskegård Struer Loldrup Hornbæk Mesballe København Tjele Hornbæk Moselund Mesballe Åstrup Struer Loldrup København Tjele Moselund Åstrup Tange Tange Idomlund Studstrupværket Studstrup- Sverige Idomlund Trige Trige Mollerup værket 19 Sverige MW Bjørnholt Hasle Mollerup Herning 19 MW Bjørnholt Hasle Videbæk Herning Høskov Videbæk Hørning Høskov Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Hørning Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Borup Sperrestrupgård Kyndbyværket Borup Stasevang Askær Malling Sperrestrupgård Ølstykkegård Malling Kyndbyværket Stasevang Allerødgård Nr Asmindrup Askær Ølstykkegård Stovstrup Thyregod Hatting Gørløsegård Allerødgård Nr Asmindrup Thyregod Stovstrup Sdr Felding Hatting Lyngerup Gørløsegård Sdr Felding Skibbygård Lyngerup Kalundborg Torslunde Knabberup Skibbygård Hovegård Kalundborg Torslunde Knabberup Asnæsværket Asnæs- Kirkeskovgård Kamstrup Kamstrup Karlsgårde Hovegård Landerupgård Karlsgårde Revsing Landerupgård Ryttergård værket Kirkeskovgård Mosedegård Revsing Ryttergård Nyrup Jersie Mosedegård Estrupvej Endrup Andst Graderup Fynsværket Estrupvedrup Endrup Nyrup Spanager AndstBram-Skærbæk- værket Skærbæk- Hejninge Bjæverskov Spanager Graderup Fynsværket Jersie Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård Bramdrup Holsted Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård værket Holsted Fraugde Hejninge Bjæverskov Horns Rev Tyrstrup Kingstrup Fraugde Rislev Haslev Horns A Rev Ribe Tyrstrup Kingstrup Magstrup Fensmark Rislev Haslev A Ribe Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 16 MW Magstrup Fensmark Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 16 MW Næstved Blangslev Østerholm Øster- Næstved Blangslev Svendborg holm Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Svendborg Masnedøværket Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Orehoved Masnedøværket Sverige Sverige Sønderborg Orehoved Eskilstrup Sønderborg Radsted Eskilstrup Vestlolland Radsted 6 kv Idestrup Vestlolland 6 kv Idestrup German plans plans (DENA (DENA study) study) 22: Tyskland 22: 12 Tyskland MW 12 MW + 2, MW MW (North & Baltic BalticSea) Skagerrak Skagerrak Governmental Energy Strategy 225: 225: Konti-Skan 9 Konti-Skan 132/5 kv Rødby Rødby 132/5 kv Nysted 165 Nysted MW 165 MW 132/5 kv 132/5 kv 132 kv 132 kv Kontek Kontek Tyskland 6 Tyskland MW 6 MW The Danish transmission system need for a stronger grid existing planned 35 km discussed Norge 1 Norge MW 1 MW Bredkær Starbakke Bredkær Starbakke Sverige 74 Sverige MW 74 MW Bagsværdgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Bagsværdgård Hvorupgård Nibstrup Dybvad Hareskovgård Måløvgård Glentegård Fredensdal Hvorupgård Måløvgård Glentegård Klim Fjordholme Fredensdal Svanemølleværket FrøstrupKlim Fjordholme Skansen Vester Hassing Bellahøj Svanemølleværket Frøstrup Håndværkervej Skansen Vendsysselværket Vester Hassing Bellahøj kbst Ballerupgård Lindevang Amagerværket Nors Håndværkervej Ådalen Ålborg Vendsysselværket Øst kbst Ballerupgård Dyregård Lindevang Nors Ådalen Ålborg Øst Amagerværket Vilsted Dyregård Ejbygård Vilsted Ferslev Vejleå Ejbygård Ferslev H C Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Vejleå Brøndbygård Vigerslev kbst H C Ørsted Værket Bedsted Mosbæk Tinghøj Ishøj Brøndbygård Kastrup kbst Vigerslev kbst Tinghøj Ishøj Amager kbst Kastrup kbst Avedøreværket Amager kbst Avedøreværket Bilstrup Flaskegård Bilstrup Flaskegård Struer Loldrup Hornbæk Mesballe København Tjele Hornbæk Moselund Mesballe Åstrup Struer Loldrup København Tjele Moselund Åstrup Tange Tange Idomlund Studstrupværket Studstrup- Sverige Idomlund Trige Trige Mollerup værket 19 Sverige MW Bjørnholt Hasle Mollerup Herning 19 MW Bjørnholt Hasle Videbæk Herning Høskov Videbæk Hørning Høskov Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Hørning Teglstrupgård Valseværket Mårslet Borup Sperrestrupgård Borup Stasevang Askær Malling Kyndbyværket Sperrestrupgård Ølstykkegård Malling Kyndbyværket Stasevang Allerødgård Nr Asmindrup Askær Ølstykkegård Stovstrup Thyregod Hatting Gørløsegård Allerødgård Nr Asmindrup Thyregod Stovstrup Sdr Felding Hatting Lyngerup Gørløsegård Sdr Felding Skibbygård Torslunde Lyngerup Knabberup Kalundborg Skibbygård Hovegård Torslunde Knabberup Kalundborg Asnæsværket Asnæs- Kirkeskovgård Kamstrup Kamstrup Karlsgårde Hovegård Landerupgård Karlsgårde Revsing Landerupgård Ryttergård værket Kirkeskovgård Mosedegård Revsing Ryttergård Nyrup Jersie Mosedegård Estrupvej Endrup Andst Graderup Fynsværket Estrupvedrup Endrup Nyrup Spanager Jersie AndstBram-Skærbæk- værket Skærbæk- Hejninge Bjæverskov Spanager Graderup Fynsværket Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård Bramdrup Holsted Odense Sydøst Ringsted Lykkegård værket Holsted Fraugde Hejninge Bjæverskov Horns Rev Tyrstrup Kingstrup Fraugde Haslev Horns Rev Ribe Tyrstrup Kingstrup Rislev A Magstrup Fensmark Rislev Haslev A Ribe Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 16 MW Magstrup Fensmark Abildskov Stigsnæsværket 16 MW Næstved Blangslev Østerholm Øster- Næstved Blangslev Svendborg holm Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Svendborg Masnedøværket Bredebro Kassø Enstedværket Orehoved Masnedøværket Sverige Sverige Sønderborg Orehoved Eskilstrup Sønderborg Radsted Eskilstrup Vestlolland Radsted 6 kv Idestrup Vestlolland 6 kv Idestrup Rødby Rødby -> how should the long-term grid structure be like? Tyskland 12 Tyskland MW Tyskland 12 MW Nysted 6 Tyskland MW 165 Nysted MW 6 MW 165 MW Skagerrak Skagerrak Konti-Skan Konti-Skan 132/5 kv 132/5 kv strong public demand for cables also on 4 kv level 132/5 kv 132/5 kv 132 kv 132 kv Kontek Kontek 1 5

6 (NORDEL) DK 2 TIE-LINES DE INTERNAL ELEMENTS NL BE PL D CZ CZ (UA) SK SK FR CH AT CH HU RO SI IT HR FRỴ PT BiH BA CS BG ES FYROM MK AL GR Solving the Balancing Task Today Load Generation Technical Measures Market Measures Prepare the Future (R& D) international & Flexibility is the Key! national Provide International Flexibility strong interconnections well functioning spot- & real time markets (reserve & regulating power) implement new intraday market transborder trade of ancillary services intense international cooperation on market and grid issues Provide Flexibility Inside the System strong transmission grid maximize flexibility of thermal units state-of-the-art wind power forecasts work on a new system architecture market design (eg CHP-to-market) detailed connection requirements AL GR 11 Wind power in the power system: impacts on reliability and efficiency Area relevant for impact studies Task 25 System wide 1-5 km Primary Secondary reserve reserve Regional 1-1 km Grid stability Transmission efficiency Congestion management Reduced emissions Hydro/thermal efficiency Adequacy of power Adequacy of grid Adequacy Balancing Local 1-5 km Voltage management Power quality Distribution efficiency Grid ms s s min min h 1 24 h years Time scale relevant for impact studies We have to embrace the full scale Source: Holttinen 12 6

7 1 System wide PT ES close cooperation within NORDEL Future Adequacy on Power and Energy Grid Planning Issues Common Markets TIE-LINES INTERNAL ELEMENTS FR (NORDEL) BE NL DK 2 D CH CH IT DE CZ CZ AT PL SK HU SI HR FRY BiH BA CS FYROM MK AL AL GR (UA) RO BG NMI 5 NVE NOS 4 1 NST 2 NSY 3 6 NNO SN2 9 SN JYN SN4 JYS DKO SN1 8 NFI 7 FIN 12 Intense international cooperation (NORDEL and UCTE) to face common challenges 13 Utilization of domestic control possibilities - both, for security of supply and economic aspects! MW Wind Prediction Day-Ahead price DKK/MWh January February MW DKK Wind Prediction Day-Ahead Price 2 February Decentral combined heat and Power (CHP) units start to operate according to price signals (~ 12 GW) Effektive control of CHP units according to market based price signals helps security of supply and economics by better utilisation of resources 14 7

8 Myth: Minimum generation capability of coal-fired power stations limits wind power penetration Connection requirement coal-fired steam power stations capable of operating down to 35% P rated Reality Some coal-fired power stations can be operated down to 1% P rated Electrical boilers are added to decouple the electricity and heat demand El (MW) operation point Extraction Area 1-2% Backpressure Curve Heat (MJ/s) Regulation capability of Backpressure Device: 5 9%: 4% of full load per minute <5; > 9%: 2% of full load per minute 15 The Importance of Wind Power Forecasting In a system with an installed wind capacity of 2,4 MW means: Fresh breeze (8-1,7m/s) a production between 6 and 16 MW A deviation of ±1 m/s a forecast fault of ± 37 MW Wind Forecasts have a significant influence on the utilization of the system, price-building and the value of wind power plants 16 8

9 Myth: Wind Turbines cannot contribute to ancillary services 17 Grid Connection Specifications - utilization of Wind Turbines technical possibilities to reduce demand on or to contribute to System Service P kan P bør P kan 3 P bør 5 Stop regulation Power Gradient Constraint P kan P bør P kan 6 7 P bør Absolute Production Constraint Delta Production Constraint Requirements on WT`s technical characteristics and operation mode increase their value for the system 18 9

10 Planning the Future Cell controller Pilot Project 6 kv 15 kv Input Cell controller Output 6 kv 6 kv 6 kv 1 kv 1 kv 1 kv 6 kv 6 kv 6 kv 1 kv 1 kv 6 kv 1 kv Project at System Design & Development Head: Per Lund 19 Danish Stragegy reduction of use of fossil fuels by 15% (from 26) stagnation of total energy consumption increase of energy saving to 1,25% annually increase of use of renewable energy sources to at least 3% doubling of wind energy usage from 3 -> 6 MW ~5 % energy coverage trippling of bio fuel usage in the transport sector to 1% Heat pumps displace oil heat system in 1 houses 2 1

11 Analysis of implementing 5% RE-el: Example - prerequisites for Jammerbugten: 3 x 2 MW - Anholt: 2 x 2 MW - Horns Rev: 5 x 2 MW Alternative locations: - Ringkøbing Fjord: 5 x 2 MW - Kriegers Flak: 3 x 2 MW + 1 MW more windpower land 21 Topic of System Plan 27: Analyses of A visionary Danish energy policy 225 Consequences of additional 3, MW for the system? MW Today MW Today + 3 MW uge uge Optimal utilization of both, domestic flexibiltiy and the international power markets is a prerequisits to maintain security of supply and maximize the value of wind power 22 11

12 Investigations on the Future Affects on System Plan - Energy and power balance; Electricity transmission grid; 27 Fuel consumption; Environment Assumptions TWh (25) -> 38 TWh (225) even with strengthened savings - 6,4 MW thermal power stations / 6,5 MW wind power capacity Alternative Alternative 1 1 MW 73 MW 16 MW 73 MW 6 MW 17 MW 13 MW 12 MW 17 MW 13 MW 95 MW 15 MW 6 MW 25 MW 6 MW 25 MW depending on wind forecast 23 Energy balance TWh critical surplus :,7 TWh Critical surplus Net exports to Nordic region Cons, heat pumps and electric boilers Consumption, normal Shortage Net import from Germany Production, wind Production, local plants Production, primary plants Cons and export Production and imports Cons and exports Production and imports Alternative Alternative

13 Energy balance TWh critical surplus :,7 TWh + SK4 (6MW), + DE (+ 25 MW), + STB2 (6MW) Critical surplus Net exports to Nordic region Cons, heat pumps and electric boilers Consumption, normal Shortage Net import from Germany Production, wind Production, local plants Production, primary plants Cons and export Production and imports Cons and exports Production and imports Alternative Alternative 1 25 Fuel Consumption and Emissions Tonnes 1, Tonnes PJ SO og NO x CO Alt Coal Natural gas Waste Alt 1 Oil Biofuels 25 Alt Alt 1 CO 2 SO 2 NO x CO 2 emissions per unit produced decline from 5 g/kwh to 42 g/kwh 26 13

14 + 3 MW windpower in 225 (5% coverage) 1% MW windpower in 225 (5% coverage) 1% 28 14

15 + 3 MW wind power in 225 (5 percent coverage) Comparison On- and Offshore: Concentration of Wind Power => larger fluctuations MW MW offshore (single site) ~2 MW onshore (dispersed) : 6: 12: 18: : Gradients up to 15 MW/min (9%/min) 29 Solving the Balancing Task in Future Load Generation Power Markets Transmission Side Power Production Side Demand Side international & Flexibility is the Key! national Provide International Flexibility Market Coupling (NordPool EEX) etc Improvement of Intraday Trading Possibilities Transborder Trade of Ancillary Services Expand Transmission Grid & Interconnections Provide Flexibility Inside the System EMS- System for WT Production Geographical Dispersion of WT / move Grid Connection Points Mobilization of Reserves, Regulation Resources, new Facility Types Upgrade Transmission Capacity (High Temperature Lines) 3 15

16 Solving the Balancing Task in Future Load Generation Power Markets Transmission Side Power Production Side Demand Side international & Flexibility is the Key! national Further Development of Price Dependent Demand Utilize and strengthen the Coupling of the Power System with Heating Systems: Immersion Heaters and Heat pumps Develop and exploit Coupling of the Power System to the Transport Sector (Electric Vehicles as Price Dependent Demand) Introduction of Energy Storage: Hydrogen, Compressed Air Energy Storage, batteries Euro/MWh MW 31 Coupling of Systems + 3 MW wind power in 225 (5% penetration) Electr-Storage Foreign Country Heat Pumps Electric Boilers Heat Storage Heat Consumption Electricity Transmission Heat Transmission Electr-Consumption Hydrogen & Biofuel Electricity Production CHP Heat Production Transport Gas Transmission 32 16

17 Summary/Conclusion Large scale integration of wind power calls for exploiting both, domestic flexibility and international power markets Both means are prerequisites for maintaining security of supply and for maximizing the value of wind power Integration measures of large-scale wind power involves: - measures on the market - measures on the production side - measures on the transmission side - measures on the demand side Utilizing and further development of couplings of the wind power dominated systems to district heating systems, the transport sector (via electric vehicles) and energy storage systems are vital for future successful large- scale wind integration 33 Challenges Increased demand for capacity reserves and ancillary services New guidelines for overhead lines and cables may substantially increase network tariffs Increasing need for regional planning and coordinated investments Activating the local grids Possible introduction of negative spot prices 34 17

18 Thank you! wwwenerginetdk Horns Rev 35 18