15-12-211 Anvendelse af biomasse i scenarier for 1% vedvarende energi Osramhuset, København 8. december, 211 Lektor Brian Vad Mathiesen Institut for Planlægning, Aalborg Universitet people.plan.aau.dk/~bvm/ Fire årtier med et stabilt energiforbrug World Primary Energy Consumption 4 3 RES PJ Danish Primary Energy Supply 1 PJ 2 1 Nuclear Ngas Oil Coal 1 19 192 194 196 198 2 8 6 4 2 1972 198 1988 1996 24 27 Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy 1
15-12-211 4 års aktiv energiplanlægning Mere end 4 års aktiv politik på energiområdet, præget af konsensus med forskelige fokusområder Den aktive energipolitik blev sat på stand-by i 21 Nyt mål i 26: Mål om 1% vedvarende energi i Danmark Alternative energiplaner og offentlig debat i mere end 4 år Fælles udfordringer: Mere vind i elsystemet Flere el og varmebesparelser i husholdninger og industri Mere el i transporten Større effektivitet i konverteringen Større system integration Vi ved allerede meget 2
15-12-211 Et muligt scenario ud af mange mulige: IDAs Klimaplan 25 fra 29 Beståraf Hovedrapport (også på engelsk) Teknisk baggrundsreport (også på engelsk) 9 andre faglige notater Teknisk sammenligning i IDA 1. Primær energiforsyning i IDA 215, IDA 23 og IDA 25, PJ 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Eksport VE el Solvarme Biomasse Naturgas Olie Kul 1 215 23 25 215 23 25 Reference IDA 3
15-12-211 The aim of the 1% renewable energy scenarios in CEESA Create a variety of 1% renewable energy system scenarios for Denmark. Analyse and integrate the transport sector into such systems. Analyse the effects of using biomass resources in 1% renewable energy systems considering the limitations in the biomass resources. Use energy system analysis to integrate flexibility and smart energy systems solutions into the electricity, heating and transport sectors as well as into the fuel supply to gas grids which utilise renewable energy. Analyse the effects on fuel efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions. Analyse the transition towards such a system from today until 25. Identify the socio economic consequences of such scenarios, incl. job effects, commercial potentials, health effects and others. Biomass supply (PJ) 25 2 15 1 5 21 22 23 24 25 Year Biomass potentials identified in CEESA CEESA presents different biomass potential 25 2 15 1 5 Cereals converted to energy crops (1 ha) Cereals converted to energy crops Extreme forest management New cereal cultivars Energy crops on surplus area Current resources Area converted scenarios. 24 PJ is the target for the overall energy system 33 45 PJ of waste is additional 4 5 PJ for petrochemical products has to be considered 4
15-12-211 Scenarios for Danish biomass potentials Biomass potential 6 Wood residues Wood pellets 5 Unexploited forest increment Fire wood Wood chips 4 Whey Brewer s grain PJ/year 3 2 1 Potato pulp Molasses Beet pulp Mill residues Fibre fraction Animal manure Beet top Straw Grass Clover Grass from low lying and wet areas Energy crops (willow) Rape seed 21/5 21/5 21/5 21 23 25 21 23 25 21 23 25 No import Unl. import No animal prod. Official recommendations Lacto ovo vegetarian Organic farming Danish Self sufficiency Change of diet Reduging the biomass consumption in CEESA 1% renewable energy scenarios 5
15-12-211 Smart energy systems are crucial for reducing biomass consumption in 1% renewable energy systems Electricity smart grids are only one part of this system. The scenarios rely on a holistic smart energy system including the use of: Heat storages and district heating with CHP plants and large heat pumps. New electricity demands from large heat pumps and electric vehicles as storage options. Electrolysers and liquid fuel for the transport sector enabling storage as liquids. The use of gas storage. Flexible integration of electricity, heat, gas and transport Transport modeling in CEESA Particular focus due to large challenges: >95% reliant on oil High increase historically Large potential for electric cars and direct electricity but.. Specific challenges in bringing in electricity in sea, aviation and good transport 6
15-12-211 Transport and 1% renewable energy systems in 25 Transit (%) Denmark National 1% International (5%) Other Countries Transit (1%) 1. 9 8 7 6 Primary energy consumption in CEESA Kortsigtede konsekvenser af langsigtede mål PJ/year 5 4 3 2 1 21 22 23 24 25 22 23 24 25 Reference CEESA Coal Oil Natural gas Biomass (gasified) Biomass (solid) Biogas, manure Waste incineration Geo thermal Solar thermal PV Wind power Wave power Unused electricity 7
15-12-211 Three 1% renewable energy system scenarios in CEESA CEESA 25 Conservative: The conservative scenario is created using mostly known technologies and technologies which are available today. CEESA 25 Ideal: In the ideal scenario, technologies which are still in the development phase are included on a larger scale. CEESA 25: This scenario is a realistic and recommendable scenario based on a balanced assessment of realistic and achievable technology improvements. 8
15-12-211 1. 9 8 Primary energy consumption in CEESA scenarios for 25 Unused electricity Wave power Wind power PV CEESA 1% Vedvarenden energi scenarior 7 Solar thermal PJ/year 6 5 4 3 2 Geo thermal Waste incineration Biogas, manure Straw, wood & energy crops (Solid for boilers, industry etc.) Wood, energy crops (gasified for Transport) Wood, energy crops (gasified for CHP) Natural gas Hovedbudskaber præsenteret for Klima-, energi-, og bygningsministeren den 2 november 211 1 Oil Reference 25 CEESA 25 CEESA 25 CEESA 25 Conservative Ideal Coal 35 3 Biomass supply in CEESA scenarios Waste incineration (organic) 25 Biogas, manure PJ/year 2 15 Straw, wood & energy crops (Solid for boilers, industry etc.) 1 Wood, energy crops (gasified for Transport) 5 CEESA 25 Conservative CEESA 25 Ideal CEESA 25 Wood, energy crops (gasified for CHP) 9
15-12-211 25. Socio economic costs MDKK/year 2. 15. 1. Transport pose a very high portion of the costs compared to other energy services Direct economic advantages in transition 5. 21 22 23 24 25 22 23 24 25 Reference CEESA Investments, energy O&M, energy Extra infrastructure inv., transport Investments, vehicles O&M, vehicles Fuel CO2 costs In addition: More stable costs More jobs More export Lower health costs PJ 14 12 1 VE produktion i DK 8 6 4 2 198 '85 '9 '95 ' '5 '1 Vind Halm Træ Biogas Affald, bionedbrydeligt Varmepumper m.m. PJ 12 VE i 21 Import ca. 36 PJ Kilde: ENS 211 1 8 6 4 2 El og fjernvarme Endeligt forbrug Vind Halm Træ Biogas Affald Anden VE 1
15-12-211 Scenarios for Danish biomass potentials 7 6 Sum Incl. Waste Sum Excl. Waste 5 4 3 For overall purposes 2 For energy only 1 25 21/5 21/5 21/5 21/5 21/5 21 23 25 21 23 25 21 23 25 Incl. Feed Excl. Feed High energy No import Unl. import No animal prod. Official recommendations Lacto ovo vegetarian BAU Organic farming Danish Self sufficiency Change of diet CEESA Publications CEESA reports (www.ceesa.dk): Main report: Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis Part 1: CEESA 1% Renewable Energy Scenarios towards 25 Part 2: CEESA 1% Renewable Energy Transport Scenarios towards 25 Part 3: Electric power systems for a transition to 1% Renewable Energy Systems in Denmark before 25 Part 4: Policies for a Transition to 1% Renewable Energy Systems in Denmark before 25 Part 5: Environmental Assessment of Renewable Energy Scenarios towards 25 And a number of other reports including: IDAs Climate Plan 25, background report Danish Wind Power Export and Cost Technical potentials of biomass for energy services from current agriculture and forestry in selected countries in Europe Energy Vision for Aalborg Municipality 25 EnergyTown Frederikshavn Heat Plan Denmark (28 and 21) And 5 PhD projects, 19 book chapters or journal papers, 25 conference proceedings and presentations. 11
15-12-211 Hvor skal vi starte? 7 8 procent af investeringer i teknologi i et IDA 25 er kendt teknologi Lav varme og elbesparelser Lav besparelser i industrien og omstil til el Udvid fjernvarmeforsyningen Udbyg med land og havvindmøller Udbyg med store solvarmeanlæg Udbyg med store varmepumper Udbyg den kollektive transport Hvor skal vi starte? 7 8 procent af investeringer i teknologi i et IDA 25 er kendt teknologi Lav Effekt varmepå kort og sigt: elbesparelser Mindre import Lav naturgas, besparelser olie og i kul industrien og økonomiske og omstil til el Udvid besparelser fjernvarmeforsyningen Udbyg med land og havvindmøller Effekt på lang sigt: mindre pres på Udbyg biomasseressourcen med store solvarmeanlæg og mindre import Udbyg samt mindre med store udsving varmepumper i omkostninger Udbyg den kollektive transport 12
15-12-211 Tak for opmærksomheden Osramhuset, København 8. december, 211 Lektor Brian Vad Mathiesen Institut for Planlægning, Aalborg Universitet people.plan.aau.dk/~bvm/ 13