Christiansborg 5. februar 2018 Hvordan kan brint reducere behovet for biomasse i fremtidens energisystem? Henrik Lund Professor i Energiplanlægning Aalborg Universitet
IDA Energiplan 2030
Smart Energy Systems
Smart Energy Systems www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/
100% VE i 2050 Primær energiforsyning 100% VE i år 2050, PJ 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 Eksport VE-el Solvarme Biomasse Naturgas Olie Kul 100 0 Ref 2030 IDA 2030 IDA 2050 Bio IDA 2050 Vind IDA 2050 Biomass potentials and consumtion in IDA 2030, PJ 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 DEA potential IDA 2030 Max potential Waste Energy crops Slurry fibre fraction Slurry biogas Wood Straw
Vind-scenario: 250 TJ Biomasse (Svarer til Dansk Potentiale) Bio+-scenario: 700 TJ Biomasse (Biomasse erstatter fossil i samme system som nu) Brint-scenario: 200 TJ Biomasse (Brint til syntetisk naturgas ) Biomasse-scenario: 450 TJ Biomasse (Indebærer import af netto biomasse)
CEESA Project 2011/2012 Transport: El biler er bedst set fra et energi system synspunkt. Men gas og flydende brændsler behøves for at håndtere hele transport sektoren. Biomasse:.. er en begrænset ressource og der er ikke nok til at tilfredsstille hele transportsektoren Konsekvensen el fra vindkraft (og tilsvarende) skal konverteres til VE-gasser og flydende brændsler på langt sigt
Resource Conversion Process Transport Fuel Transport Demand Resource Conversion Process Transport Fuel Transport Demand Electricity (111 PJ) Electricity (111 PJ) Resource Conversion Process Transport Fuel Transport Demand Biomass [Glucose] Biomass (60 PJ) [Cellulose] (65 PJ) Electricity (83.5 PJ) H 2 O (2.6 Mt) Electric Grid 1 6 PJ 3 Electric Grid 1 Electricity 1.9 Mt (178 PJ) Electricity Electricity (100 PJ) CO (100 PJ) 2 OR OR 294 Gpkm 313 Gpkm Resource Conversion Process Transport Fuel Transport Demand Power Plant Electricity (83 PJ) H 2 O (2.3 Mt) 0.6 PJ Freight is not applicable Marginal Heat 3 (7.6 PJ) 323 Gtkm Resource Anaerobic Conversion Chemical Process Transport Fuel 61 Gpkm Transport Demand OR Digester Hydrogenation Synthesis 59 PJ Steam Electricity Chemical 61 Gpkm Hydrogenation OR Gasifier Biogas Synthesis Methane (50 GJ) (100 PJ 2 ) 83 PJ Syngas 36 Gtkm Power Plant Heat Methane Biomass 1 (100 PJ 2 ) Electrolyser Resource 1 Conversion Process Transport Fuel Transport Demand (77 PJ) H 2 36 Gtkm (60.5 PJ) Carbon H 2 Sequestration (72.2 & PJ) Chemical Electricity Electrolyser 2 1 Recycling 3 Hydrogenation OR 52 Gpkm Synthesis (7.3 PJ) H 2 4.5 Mt (60.5 PJ) Biomass CO 2 Methanol/DME Power Plant (40.2 2.3 Mt PJ) (7 Mt) Marginal Heat 1 CO (62.6 PJ 2 2 ) 31 Gtkm (50.2 PJ) (4.4 Mt) or 4.5Mt Co-electrolysis 4 Chemical OR 83 Gpkm Synthesis Straw (401.7 PJ) H 2 O (5.7 Mt) 303.6 PJ Electricity (307 PJ) 3.4 PJ 3 Electrolyser 6 Syngas (139 PJ) Fermenter Low & High Temperature Gasification 7 Methanol/DME (100 PJ 5 ) Lignin (197.7 PJ) C5 Sugars (92.8 PJ) 50 Gtkm Ethanol (100 PJ) OR 67 Gpkm 39 Gtkm 4 H 2 O (15.5 Mt) 11 5 Mt 1 Mt 3.5 Mt H 2 (149.4 PJ) Hydrogenation Chemical Synthesis Methanol/DME (337.5 PJ 2 ) OR 279 Gpkm 169 Gtkm
Smart Energy Systems The key to cost-efficient 100% Renewable Energy A sole focus on renewable electricity (smart grid) production leads to electricity storage and flexible demand solutions! Looking at renewable electricity as a part smart energy systems including heating, industry, gas and transportation opens for cheaper and better solutions Power-to-Heat Power-to-Gas Power-to-Transport
Pump Hydro Storage 175 /kwh (Source: Electricity Energy Storage Technology Options: A White Paper Primer on Applications, Costs, and Benefits. Electric Power Research Institute, 2010) Energilagre Thermal Storage 1-4 /kwh (Source: Danish Technology Catalogue, 2012) Oil Tank 0.02 /kwh (Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil Storage Tank. 2013) Natural Gas Underground Storage 0.05 /kwh (Source: Current State Of and Issues Concerning Underground Natural Gas Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 2004)
Price ( /MWh) 0.16 m3 Thermal Storage 300.000 /MWh (Private house: 160 liter for 15000 DKK) 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 Varmelagre Thermal storage: Price and Size 6200 m3 Thermal Storage 2500 /MWh (Skagen: 6200 m3 for 5.4 mio. DKK) 0 160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3 4 m3 Thermal Storage 40,000 /MWh (Private outdoor: 4000 m3 for 50,000 DKK) 200,000 m3 Thermal Storage 500 /MWh (Vojens: 200,000 m3 for 30 mio. DKK)
Price ( /MWh) Pump Hydro Storage 100 /kwh (Source: Goldisthal Pumped Storage Station, Germany, www.store-project.eu) El-lagre Compressed Air Energy Storage 125 /kwh (Source: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ar ticle/pii/s0196890409000429) 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 Electricity Storage: Price and Size Tesla PowerWall Fully Installed Sodium-Sulphur Battery CAES Pumped Hydro 3.3 kw 50 MW 350 MW 1000 MW Tesla PowerWall 800 /kwh (Source: http://solarlove.org/solarcitytesla-battery-create-turnkeysystems-depth/ Sodium-Sulphur Battery 600 /kwh (Source: Table 4: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2012/ph240/d oshay1/docs/epri.pdf)
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Eksisterende distributionsnet
Hvor meget skal varmeforbruget reduceres før 2050?
Smart Energy Europe Publication www.energyplan.eu/smartenergyeurope Report Online Paper Published
Smart Energy Systems Elektrificeringen.!!!!!
Det er svært at se fornuften bag et sådant mål, for hvad er miljøgevinsten ved at reducere den grønne energiproduktion?
Hvad nu hvis.!!!? Uden besparelser og individuel elvarme: Hydro Hydro Hydro water storage power plant 12.500 MW vind (180 mia.kr.) RES electricity 4-dobling af el-net (300 mia.kr.) PP 10 TWh El-lager (12.000 Fuel mia.kr.) CHP RES heat Boiler Electricity storage system Heat pump and electric boiler Import/ Export fixed and variable Cooling device Heat storage Electricity demand Cooling demand Heat demand Integreret energisystem med Electrolyser H2 storage Transport Cars demand fjernvarme og besparelser: Process Industry heat demand 1500 MW vind (plus andre bidrag) Stort set sammen el-net Varmelagre < 7 mia.kr
Hovedpointer Vi skal begrænse brugen af Biomasse til et niveau, der er bæredygtigt Den elektrificering som blot øger elforbruget er problematisk (øger presset på biomasse og vind) Det er når alle sektorer spiller sammen i et smart energi system, at vi opnår den bedste og den billigste løsning (mindsker presset på biomasse og integrerer vind): Elektrolyseanlæg (produktion af Brint) er en central teknologi Besparelser, fjernvarme (store varmepumper) er andre centrale tiltag
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