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364 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 а 0 3 0 5 0 8 0 6 0 7 0 4 0 7 0 4 0 0 8 0 9 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 4 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 0 4 0. 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 0 7 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 7 0 0 7 ARIMA. 0 5 б 0 0 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 8 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 5 0 7 0 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 9 0 8 0 0, 0 7 0 8 0 5 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 0 4 б 0 0 7 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 0 6, 0 9 0 5 0 3 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 5, 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 8 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 9 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 6 б 0 4 0 0 4 б 0 0 7 0, 0 5 0 9 0 5 б 0 4. 0 3 0 0 8 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 6 0 4 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4, 0 0 5 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 0 9 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9, 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 7 C 0 0 4 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4. 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 6, 0 7 0 8 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 7 ARIMA 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4, 0 0 4 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 4. 0 6 0 4 0 8 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 0 8 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 0 4 0 9 0 0 9 0 6, б 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 5 б 0 6 0 9 0 0 5 б 0 4 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 9 0 4 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 6, 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 6 б 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 4 0 3 0. 0 3 0 8 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 5 ARIMA 0 6 0 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 5, 0 4 б 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 9, 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 5 б 0 0 9 0 9 0 4 0 8 0 4 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 б 0 0 8 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 4 б 0 0 7 0 9 0 8 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 8 0 7 0. 0 0 0 7 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 8 б 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 0 6 б 0 0 8 0 0 5 0 9 б 0 4 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 6 0 6, б 0 6 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 4 0 9 0 0 9 0 4 0 6 б 0 6. 0 4 0 4 0 0 0 9 0 7, 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4, б 0 0 9 0 0 5 б 0 9 0 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 6 б 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 6, 0 0 4 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 6 0 9. 0 3 0 6 0 4 0 6, б 0 6 0 0 9 0 5 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 6 0 9 б 0 9 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 8 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 3 (MSE,. 0. 0 0 8 0 0 6 0 9 0 0 9 0 0 0 6 0 9, 0 6 0 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 0 : E{ h,... }. 0 6 0 6 0 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 5 б 0 0 MSE, 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 4 б 0 6 MMSE,. 0. Minimum mean square error. 0 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 8(q: х б... б 6с q 6сq. 0 0 0 4 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 0 0, б 0 6 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 6 б 0 6 0 4 0 9 0 0 9 0 4, б 0 6 0 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 4 б 0 0 7 0 0 5 0 7 й [, ]. 0 б 0 0 9 0 0 6, б 0 6 0 0 4 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 6 б 0 б 0 4 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 6 0 0 5 0 7 0 5 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9,. 0. х. 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 6 0 0 5 0 7 0 6 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 ~ q 6сq E{ х б... б,..., }. 0 5 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 5 б 0 4 0 0 9 0 0 5 б, 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 0 9 0 6 б 0 9, 0 0 9 0, 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 7. 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 0 9 0 5 0 0 4 0 9 0 0 9 0 7 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 3 0 4 б 0 0 7 0 6 0 3, 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 0 б 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 0 4 0, 0 8 0 6 0, 0 0 8 0 9 0 4 0 5 0 6. 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 9 б 0 5 E{,... }, 0 7 0 6 0 6 б 0 6 0 9 0 0 0 6 0 0 3 0. 0 6 0 6 0 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 C 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 3 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 0 8 0 9 б 0 0 6, 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 5,. 0. e 6с. 0 3 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 0 - ~ б 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 4 б 0 0 9 0 5 б 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 9 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 9. 0 6 0 6 б 0 6 0 3 0 0 6 0 9 0 8 0 8 0 0 9 0 7 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0, 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 h 0 3 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 0. 0 0 0 9 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 5 0 7, 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 4 0 0 C 0 4 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 0 5 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 4 0 6 0 9. 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 6, 0 0 5 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 5 MA(q 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 6, 0 0 6 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0. 0 б 0 7 0 9 0 3 0 0 (q 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 х,. 0. 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 0 0 9 0 0 4 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 4. 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 4 0 3 0 0:

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368 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 а 0 3 0 5 0 8 0 6 0 7 0 4 0 7 0 4 0 0 8 0 9 0 0 0 0 6 0-0 9 0 9 0 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 б. 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 7 0 8 0 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 4 б 0 4 0 8 0 0,. 0. 0 9 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 0 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 6 0 3 0 0. 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 6, 0 4 0 5 0 7 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 7 0. 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 6, 0 9 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 5 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 6 0 6, 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 5 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 6 0 9 0 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 4 0 0 6. 0 0 5 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 4 0 9 0 7 0 0 5 0 7 0 5 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 9. 0 7: 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9, 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 0 4 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 7 0 0 9 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 0 7 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 8 0 0 C SP (rend saionary rocess. 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 б, 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 0 9 0 5 0 6 б 0 0 7 0 9 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 8 0 0. 0 6 0 6, 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 0 7 0, 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9, 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 8 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 8 0 0. 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 6 S. 0 7: 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9, 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 0 4 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 7 0 0 9 0 4 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 6 0 9 C DSP (diferencing saionary rocess. 0 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 9: 6с. 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 6 DS. 0 5 0 9 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 0 4 0 0 8 0 4 0 5 б 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 0 5 0 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 5. 7.. 0 6 0 5 0 7.. 0 3 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 SP 6 0 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 0 4-0 4 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 8 0 0. 6 0 8 0 6 0 б 0 7 0 7 0 7 0 6 0 3 0 6 0, 0 6 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 9 0 8 0 4. 0 3 0 9 0 5 0 9 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 ARMA(,q, 0 6, 0 6 0 б 0 6, 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 7, 0 6 0 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 8 0 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 0 9 0. 0 3 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 DSP 6 0 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 0 4-0 4 0 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9. 6 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 4 0 0, 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 7. 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 0 9 0 6 0 б 0 6 0 7 0 7 0 6. 0 6 0 6 0 6 б 0 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 0 6 б 0 0 7 0 6 0 7 0 6, 0 3 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 3 0 4 0 9 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 6. 0 0 984 0 0. 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 0 [0], 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 6 0 4 0 0 5 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 6 : б 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 6 0 0, 0 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 0 9 0 7 DSP, 0 4 0 0 0 9 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 7 0 5 0 0 4 0 8 0 0, 0 0 5 0 7 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 7 SP? 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 4 0 5 0 4 0 4 0 5 0 7 0 6 0 5 - б 0 0 4 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 5 0 3 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 5 б 0 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 4 0 0 0 6 0-0 8 0 8 0 5 0 6 0 4 0 5 0 6 б 0 5 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 6 0.. 0 9 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 5 б 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 3 0 0 7 0 0 4 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 7 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 9 0 9 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 8 0 R ж 44 0 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 0 8 0 9 0 4-0 6 0 8,. 0. R 0 4 б 0 0 3 0 0 0 5 0 7 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 5 б 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 б 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 7.. 0 3 0 9 0 5 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 ( 0 8 ы0, 0 6 R > 44 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 0 8 0 9 0 4 0 6 0 8. 0 6 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 7, 0 7 0 6 0 6 б 0 6 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 8 ы 0, 0 7 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 0 C 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 0 9 0 8 0 0 0 0. 0 6 0 3 0 0 6 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 9, б 0 6 R З 0 7 0 8 З ч, З. 0. 0 0 5 0 7 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 DSP 0 9 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 6 R 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 0 5 б 0 0 6 0 0 9 0 4 0 6 0 8. 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 4 б 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0, 0 6 0 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 0 8 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 9 0, 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 4 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 4 0 3 (surious rends. 3. 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 8 0 6 4% 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 5 б 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 4 0 0 7,. 0. 0 6 0 0 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 4 0 3 0. 0 3 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 7 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 0 4 б 0 4 0 8 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 6, 0 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 6

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0 3 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 0 6 0 4 б 0 4 0 0 8 0 0 0 4, 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 6. 0 4 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 4 0 5 0 4 0 7 0 6 0 3 0, б 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 4 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 6 0 6. 0 8 0 5 0 6 0 6 0 4 б 0, б 0 6 0 0 9 0 5 0 3 0 0 7 0 4 0 9 0 0 5 б, 0 0 3 0 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 4 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 9, 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 0 9 0 7 DS 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 6, 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 0 3 0 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 7 0 3. 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 6, 0 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 3 0 9 0 7. 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 0 9 0 7, б 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 4 0 0 0 5 0 7 0, 0 6 0 4 0 б 0 5, б 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 9 C DSP, 0 9 0 0 0 5 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 6 б 0 0 9 0 9 0 4 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 6 б 0. 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 7 0 6 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 7 0 6 0 4 б 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 9 0 6 0 9 0 5 б 0, 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 7 DS. 0 5 б 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 8 0 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 б 0 0 8 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 8 0, 0 4 0 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 6 0 3 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 0 8 [], 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 7 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 0 9 0 6 0 8 б 0 0 9 0 0 8 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 6 б 0 0 9 0 0 8 0 7 0 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 0 8. 0 4 0 0 4 0 5 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 7 0 6 0 4 0 5, б 0 6 0 7 0 8 б 0 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 0 8 0 7 0 0 4 0 8 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 6 б 0 0 9 0 0 7 0 6 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 8, 0 4 0 9 0 5 0 6 б 0 0 0 8 0 7 0 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 0 4 0 8 0 6 0 0 4, 0 6 0 4 0 5 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 0 7 DS,. 0. 0 7 0 9 0 5 б 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 5 0 3 0 0 7 0 9 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 6. 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 9 0 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 б 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 3 0 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 4. 0 6 0 4 0 9 0 0 9 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 8 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5, б 0 6 0 9 0 9 0, б 0 6 0 9 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 0 6 0 9 0 0 7 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 5 0 9 0 8 0 6 0 5 0 6 0 6 б 0 0 9 0 6 0, 0 7 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 3 0 7 0 0 8 0 0 9 0 6 0 8. 0 3 0 8 0 9 0, 0 0 5 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 7 0 6 0 4 0 5, б 0 6 0 9 0 0 7 0 0 9 0 6 0 5 0 0 8 б. 0 0 9 0 0 5 0 8 0 6 0 4, 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 6 C 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 6 C 0 3 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 0 8, 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 5 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 8 0 0 8 0 6. 0 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 0 9 0 7, 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 б 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 4 0 0 0 8 б 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 8 0 7 0 0 0 9 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 9: DS S. 0 3 0 9 0 5 0 8 0 0 0 9 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 7 S 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 9 0, 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 4 0 5 б 0 6 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 0 9 0 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 8 0 7 0. 0 4 0 3 0 0 4 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 8 0 9 0 5 0 0 5 0 7 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 6 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 6 б 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 8 0 0 5 0 7 0 0 6 0 6 0 0 0. 0 0 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 3 0 5 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 4 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 8 0 9 0 5 0 8 0 7 0 0 4 б 0 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 5 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 5 0 6 0 8 0 7 0 8 0 3 0 5 0 9 0 4 0 9 0 6 0, б 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 4 0 9 0 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 6 AR(. 0 3 0 9 0 5 0 9 0 4 0 7 0 7 0 0 8 0 9 0 4 0 0 8 0 4 0 6 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 8 0 7 0, 0 6 0 6 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 6 0 8 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 4 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 5 0 6 ARIMA(,0. 0 8 0 5 0 6 0 6 б 0 0 8 0 4 0 4 0 0 8 0 7 0 0 4. 0 0 0 4 0 (S 0 9 0 5 0 0 9 0 4 0 6 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 8 0 -

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300 0 9 0 3 0 8 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 0 6 0 0 0 3 0 6 0 0 0 6 а 0 3 0 5 0 8 0 6 0 3 0 0 0 8 0 6 0 3 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 4 73 0 9 0 5 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 7 0 C 0 8 0 5 0 5 0 0 8,. 0. 0 9 6,49. 0 0 0 8 0 0 4 0 5 0 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 0 4 б 0 6 0 9 5% 0 0 0 7 0 6 0 0 4 0 6 0 5 б 0 0 б 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 7 0 0 6 0 3 0 0 4 0 6 0 9 0 0 8 0 0, 0 0 5 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 6 0 6 0 4 б 0, б 0 6 0 8 0 7 0 0 6 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 7 DS. 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 5 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 0 8 0 7 0 8 0 7 0 C S 0 5 DS C 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 0 9 0 7 0 0 9 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 6 0 5 б 0 7 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 7 0 0 б 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 7, 0 6 0 5 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 0 8 0 6 0 0 4 0 9 0 uni roo es. 0 4 0 б 0 0 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 0 8 0 0 5 б 0 7 0 0 б 0 4 0 0 6 0 8 0 0 9 0 0 8 0 0 8 0 9 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 9 0. 0 0 6 0 5 - б 0 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 9 0 9 0 0 0 б 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 7 C 0 5 0 6 0 6, б 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 6 0 9 C 0 0 3 0 0 9 0 4 0 4 0 9 0 0 9 0 7 0 7 0 6 0 8 0 7 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 8 0 C 0 0 0 0 5 0 5. 0 6. 0. uni roo es, 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 4 0 7 0 6 0 7 0 9 0 5 0 9 0 7 0 9 0 6 0 4 0 6 0 3 0 6 0 9 0 8 0 4 0 5 б 0 0 7 0 0 3 0 S DS 0 8 0 7 0, 0 0 0 9 0 9 б 0 0 9 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 5 0 7 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 7 0 7 0 6 0 8 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 8 0 7 0 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 9 0 6 0 9 C 0 0 3 0 0 9. 0 0 6 0 5 0 3 0 0 0 8 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 6 0 9 0 8 0 0 0 7 0 6 0 5 б 0 5 0 6 0 9 0 7 0 6 0 5 0 4 0 6 0 9 0 0 8 0 9 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 7 0 C 0 8 0 5 0 5 0 0 8 0 0 5 0 7 0 9 0 9. 0 0 0 4 0 7 0 6 0 0 8 0 6 0 6 0 8 0 9 0 9 0 6 0 8 0 0 0 7 0 8 0 0 0 0 9 0 3 ц s. e.( 0 3 ц 0 9 0 5 0 0 0 6 0 0 5 0 0 0 7 0. 6с5 6с5 0 5 0 3 0 6 0 5 0 0 8 0 9 0 6 0 6 0 3 0 4 0 8 0 6 0 7 0 4 0 4. Akaike H. A New Look a he Saisical Model Idenificaion, IEEE ransacions on Auomaic Conrol, AC-9. 974. P. 76 C73.. Box G. E. P. and Jenkins G. M. ime Series Analysis, Forecasing and Conrol, rev. Ed. San Francisco: Holden-Day, 976. 3. Dickey D. A. and Fuller W. A. Disribuion of he Esimaors for Auoregressive ime-series wih a Uni Roo // Journal of he American Saisical Assiciaion. 979. Vol. 74. P. 47 C43. 4. Dickey D. A. and Fuller W. A. Likelihood Raio Saisics for Auoregressive ime Series wih a Uni Roo // Economerica. 98. Vol. 49. P. 057 C07. 5. Judge G. G., Griffis W. E., Hill R. C., Lukeohl H., Lee soung-chao. he heory and Pracice of Economerics. Second ediion. NY: John Willey and Sons, 985. 6. Ljung G. M. and Box G. E. P. On a Measure of Lack of Fi in ime Series Models // Biomerika. 978. 65. P. 97 C303. 7. MacKinnon J. C. Criical Values for Coinegraion ess // UC San Diego Discussion Paer. 990. P. 90 C4. 8. Mills. C. he Economeric Modelling of Financial ime Series. Cambridge Universiy Press, 993. 9. Mills. C. he Economeric Modelling of Financial ime Series. Second ediion. Cambridge Universiy Press, 999. 0. Nelson C. R. and. Kang H. Pifalls in he Use of ime as an Exlanaory Variable in Regression // Journal of Business and Economic Saisics. January 984. Vol.. P. 73 C8.. Nelson C. R. and Plosser C. I. rends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic ime Series: Some Evidence and Imlicaion // Journal of Moneary Economics. 98. Vol. 0. P. 39 C6.. Poski D. S. and remayne A. R. Deermining a Porfolio of Linear ime Series Models // Biomerica. 987. V. 74. P. 5 C37. 3. Schibaa R. Selecion of he Order on an Auoregressive Model by Akaike s Informaion Crierion // Biomerika. 976. 63. P. 47 C64. 4. Schwarz G. Esimaing he Dimension of a Model // he Annals of Saisics. 978. 6. P. 46 C464. 6с5