Fremtidsbilleder i energisektoren

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1 Fremtidsbilleder i energisektoren Af Villy Søgaard Lektor Institut for Miljø-og Erhvervsøkonomi

2 Det er svært at spå Men nødvendigt at forsøge Og vigtigt at vide, hvordan vi gør det - for fremtiden afhænger af det - især i en sektor som energisektoren med store investeringer og betydelig usikkerhed - Inkaerne mente, at vi bevæger os baglæns ind i fremtiden at vi har den bag ryggen

3 Så fuld fart baglæns

4 Min analyse Hvad er det for en fremtid, energivirksomheder ser bag ryggen? Er det den samme for forskellige typer af virksomheder? I hvilket omfang er de fremtidsmagere, og i hvilket omfang er de fremtidstagere? Hvilke eksterne faktorer lægger de vægt på? Hvilke konsekvenser har disse eksterne faktorer for den interne strategi?

5 External process Internal implications for DONG Energy Increasing world population (and incomes) Increasing demand for energy Spot opportunities for growth in various energy markets With existing technologies this means higher emissions of e.g. CO2, causing climate change and other environmental problems Cut CO2 emissions and minimise environmental impact of operations Political intervention to - reduce CO2 emissions and pollution generally - stimulate the development and diffusion of alternative technologies Take part in the developing and scaling up of known alternatives (exp. wind supplemented with bioenergy) as well as more innovative energy solutions Regulatory measures will influence the competition between technological trajectories Spread risks across the energy portfolio. Seek to influence the evolution of the regulatory framework

6 External process Internal implications for Vestas Increasing world population (and incomes) Increasing demand for energy Spot opportunities for growth in the wind energy market With existing technologies this means higher emissions of e.g. CO2, causing climate change and other environmental problems Cut CO2 emissions and minimise environmental impact of operations Political intervention to - reduce CO2 emissions and pollution generally - stimulate the development and diffusion of alternative technologies Take part in the developing and scaling up of wind technology Regulatory measures will influence the competition between technological trajectories Spread risk by strengthening the service business. Seek to influence the evolution of the regulatory framework

7 External process Implications for Maersk Oil Increasing world population (and incomes) Increasing demand for energy Exploit opportunities for growth in oil and gas markets With existing technologies this means higher emissions of e.g. CO2, causing climate change and other environmental problems Cut CO2 emissions (e.g. from flaring) and minimise environmental impact of operations Political intervention to - reduce CO2 emissions and pollution generally - stimulate the development and diffusion of alternative technologies Drive new business opportunities in the oil business, such as making carbon capture and storage (CCS) a reality Regulatory measures will influence the competition between technological trajectories Cope with risk by being financially strong and being part of the A.P.Moller-Maersk Group Seek to influence the evolution of the regulatory framework

8 PESTEL-profilerne PESTEL = Politiske Økonomiske Samfundsmæssige Teknologiske Miljømæssige Lovgivningsmæssige faktorer. Desuden er medtaget demografiske faktorer.

9 Interne og eksterne faktorer Demographic Legal 25 Political Economic Social DONG Energy External Internal Environmental Technological Demographic Legal 30 Political Economic Social Vestas External Internal Environmental Technological Demographic Legal 14 Political Maersk GROUP Economic External Internal Social Environmental Technological

10 Foreløbige konklusioner I meget høj grad det samme overordnede fremtidsbillede, der toner frem for de tre virksomheder De strategiske konsekvenser hænger sammen med deres position/rolle i energisektoren Virksomhederne ser i høj grad sig selv som (med)skabere af fremtidens energiforsyning

11 Til overvejelse De tre virksomheders opfattelse af den eksterne fremtid virker meget ens? Er det et problem? Er balancen mellem analysen af den ydre verden og fokuseringen på egne mål optimal? Er der ydre forhold, som fortjener større opmærksomhed?