Snapshot af den globale energidiskussion - forsyningssikkerhed, miljø og økonomi

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1 Snapshot af den globale energidiskussion - forsyningssikkerhed, miljø og økonomi Hans Jørgen Koch International direktør Energistyrelsen, Klima-, Energi og Bygningsministeriet, April 2013

2 Fem drivkræfter bag international og dansk - energipolitik Forsyningssikkerhed: at få den mængde energi man efterspørger på det tidspunkt man efterspørger den; Økonomi: at energien fås til en pris som muliggør økonomisk vækst og velfærd (dvs. at energien er til at betale for forbrugerne). Miljømæssige prioriteter: klimaforandringer og lokal forurening. Energisikkerhed (safety): at energien tilvejebringes på en måde, der er sikker for folk og samfund. Folkelig accept (ex: atomkraft, CCS, vind)

3 Nogle globale energi trends 2013 Høje og ustabile oliepriser tæt på smertegrænsen the era of cheap oil is over. Udløsning af strategiske reserver tre gange. Næste gang? Gas-revolutionen: 60 eller 230 år? Transition eller destination? Megen gas på markedet, incl. skifergas, men mange usikkerheder mht pris, levering & miljømæssige perspektiver (af skifergas). LNG? Masser af kul, men prisen usikker, CO2-emissioner notorisk høje, og hvad med CCS? Atomkraft efter Fukushima? Energiforbruget stiger i vækstøkonomierne og er stadig højt i OECD-landene. Globale CO2 emissioner rekordhøje i 2010 & 2011.

4 Trends fortsat Vedvarende energi bliver stadig mere konkurrencedygtigt, særligt solceller (PV) Vedvarende energi har høje vækstrater: halvdelen af al ny elektricitetskapacitet (2012) er VE og VE forventes at blive 2. største kilde (efter kul) i Men subsidier til fossile brændsler er stadig 6-7 x højere end subsidier til VE. Energeffektivitet: store uhøstede potentialer trods begrænsede omkostninger. USA s energisituation ændres geopolitiske konsekvenser? Klima: på kurs mod 3,6 graders stigning eller mere.

5 The context Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear in some others Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency All time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5 times US levels) and Asia (8 times) Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA CO 2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity Water increasingly crucial for assessing the viability of energy projects OECD/IEA 2012

6 Most new oil production capacity is needed to offset decline World liquids supply by type in the New Policies Scenario mb/d Biofuels Processing gains Unconventional oil Natural gas liquids Crude oil: Yet to be found Yet to be developed Currently producing Decline at existing conventional fields amounts to 47 mb/d, twice current OPEC Middle East production; NGLs and unconventional production are the main sources of growth OECD/IEA 2012

7 Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand Growth in primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario Mtoe China India Other developing Asia Russia Middle East Rest of world OECD Global energy demand increases by one third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth OECD/IEA 2012

8 The door to 2 C is closing, but will we be locked in? OECD/IEA 2012 World energy related CO 2 emissions in the Current Policies and 450 Scenarios and from locked in infrastructure in 2010 and with delay Gt C trajectory 2 C trajectory Delay until 2017 Delay until 2015 Emissions from existing infrastructure Without further action, by 2017 all CO 2 emissions permitted in the 450 Scenario will be locked in by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc.

9 Efficiency gains can contribute most to emissions reductions World energy related CO 2 emissions abatement in the 450 Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario Gt New Policies Scenario Scenario Abatement Efficiency 72% 44% Renewables 17% 21% Biofuels 2% 4% Nuclear 5% 9% CCS 3% 22% Total (Gt CO 2 ) Energy efficiency measures driven by strong policy action across all sectors account for 50% of the cumulative CO 2 abatement over the Outlook period OECD/IEA 2012

10 A United States oil & gas transformation US oil and gas production mboe/d Unconventional gas 10 5 Conventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional oil The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States OECD/IEA 2012

11 Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road Middle East oil export by destination mb/d China India Japan & Korea Europe United States OECD/IEA 2012 By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade

12 Different trends in oil & gas import dependency Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries Gas Imports 100% 80% 60% European Union Japan % 20% 0% China United States India Gas Exports 20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, the United States swims against the tide OECD/IEA 2012

13 A power shift to emerging economies Change in power generation, Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables China India United States European Union Japan TWh TWh The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity OECD/IEA 2012

14 Denmark: Gross Energy Consumption from oil to a mix of fuels * Oil Natural Gas Coal Renewable Energy

15 Production of Renewable Energy a mix of sources PJ '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 Wind Straw Wood Biogas Waste Heat Pumps 15

16 Danske målsætninger: 100% VE I 2050 (hele energisystemet, dvs. electricitet, varme, industri og transport. Kul udfases fra danske kraftværker inden El og varme 100% VE I 2035.

17 Hvorfor vælger DK at udfase fossile brændsler? Økonomien: VE er ikke billigt, men det er fossile brændsler heller ikke. Store investeringer er under alle omstændigheder nødvendige. Forudsigelighed! Hvad bliver olieprisen? Kul? Gas? Og har vi indflydelse på dem? Politisk uafhængighed (>$100/barrel is the largest transfer of wealth in human history.) Klima: 3,6 graders stigning eller mere er et hidtil uset eksperiment med kloden.

18 Financing the energy agreement Total costs ca 500 mill euro app 165 euro/year per household app 3.5 euro/week per household = a burger/week Financed through Tariffs on energy distribution PSO financing RE increase in electricity and gas grids Tax for heating PSO tarif s tarifs tax tax PSO

19 Hvor diskuteres energipolitik internationalt? International Energy Agency G8 G20 Major Economies Forum / Clean Energy Ministerial UNFCCC og andet med UN foran. EU APEC og mange flere

20 Yderligere information: