Solceller international udvikling og tendenser Solceller i det kommende energiforlig ENIIG, 19. maj 2017 Peter Ahm, Direktør ahm@paenergy.dk
Solceller 70 MW (DC) ved Lerchenfeldt Kilde: Ingeniøren Præsentationen anvender i vid udstrækning data og viden fra IEA PVPS ordningen 2
1 GW solcellepark i Yanchi, Kina 3
Photovoltaics Buildings and communities Smart Grids Ocean Energy Systems Bioenergy Wind Solar Heating and Cooling Hybrid and electric vehicles Concentrating Solar power Hydrogen Energy system Technology Analysis Fluidized Bed Conversation CO2 Carbon Capture & Power Energy storage Advanced Motor fules Heat Pumping technologies Demand side Management Geothermal Advnced Fuel Cells Enhanced Oil recovery High temperatur Superconductivity Eergy efficient End use equipment Emission reduction in Combustion Clean Coal District heating and Cooling Industrieal Technologies and Systems Advanced Transport Materials Renewables Deployment Hydropower Climate technology Initiative Fusion Materials Nuclear Fusion reactors Environment Safety Fusion Stellarator Helliotron Tokomaks Gas and Oil Technologies Plasma Wall interaction Reversed Field Pinches Spherical Tori Antal deltagende lande i IEA s Technology Collaboration Projects (TCP s) EUDP støtter dansk deltagelse i IEA s TCP s 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Green: Renewable Energy working party 4
Samarbejde med andre IEA TCPs Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC) Tasks 46, 51, 40, 53 SolarPACES Task 5 Renewable Energy Technology Deployment (RETD) Energy Conservation through Energy Storage (ECES) International Smart Grid Action Network (ISGAN)
International organisations IRENA Task 1, Task 9 & Task 12 (Launch of 1 st joint publication 2016) Discussion PV market data IEC Task 9, Task 12, Task 13 Meeting with new IEC TC 82 Chair Global Solar Council (GSC)
GWpDC Total PV Installed Capacity FIGURE 1: EVOLUTION OF PV INSTALLATIONS (GW-DC) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Non IEA PVPS Countries IEA PVPS Countries 7
75 GW installed in 2016 (Wind: 54 GW) 8
Utility Scale PV >5 MW End 2016: ~50 GW est. In 1H 2016: ~ 10 GW Kilde: Wiki-Solar 9
PV Market development Utility-scale dominates signficantly 10
Top 10 Countries in 2016 11
PV Penetration 12
PV Market development 13
Perspectives 75 Source: PA PV Energy Market Ltd. Alliance Becquerel Institute 2016 14
Market Perspectives Source: PV Market Alliance Becquerel Institute 2016 15
Tekniske tendenser (0/6) 16
Forretnings tendenser (1/6) Markedet for drift og vedligeholdelse (O&M) af solcelleanlæg vokser eksplosivt. Jvnf. vind tilbyder flere firmaer hele paletten fra projektudvikling over projektering og implementering til drift og vedligehold (garanteret optid) i en årrække. O&M bliver et væsentligt forretningsområde 17
Tendenser (2/6) PV as waste EU Directive Waste Electrical & Electronic Equipment (WEEE) February 2003; revised by February 2014 and includes PV. PV Cycle Association (European) At present around 10.000 t PV to be handled. With a system lifetime of 25-35 Y the waste amount will grow explosively. PV recycling a growing business area. 18
Tendenser (3/6) PV as waste 19
Tendenser (4/6) Resourceforbrug ved PV fremstilling Solcelleteknologi fremstilles ved det normale el-mix. Stor forskel på carbon footprint i forskellige lande. For produktion af et typisk 60 celle solcellepanel (300W) optræder ud over el bl.a. Si, argon, crucibles, Si kerfloss, vand, glas, Al, Ag, EVA, polymere + diverse kemikalier. EU projektet Eco-Solar har lavet en roadmap for reduceret resourceforbrug svarende til 70 95 % alt efter indsatsområde. Energitilbagebetalingstiden kan reduceres markant. 20
Solcellers pris Learning Curve 97% production 0,4 USD/Wp 0,45 USD/WP 275 GW 0,38 USD/WP 300 GW 37% LC 20% LC Source: Becquerel Institute 2016 21
Prisudvikling ($/MWh) for VE [LCOE] Kilde: FN 22
Tendenser (5/6) $ 0,024/kWh, Dubai 23
Tendenser (6/6) Auktioner fremtidens forretningsmodel 24
The Global PV Context 2017 Very rapid cost reduction up to 75% over the last 10 years Record PPAs as low as < 30 USD/MWh (auctions) Increasing competitiveness PV becoming the most competitive solution? Very dynamic worldwide growth 2015: 50 GW, + 25% 2016: 75 GW, + 50% - sustainable? > 1.5% of world electricity consumption, in some countries up to 8% PV has arrived in the energy world 25
Today s PV Integration Challenges PV & electrical grid integration high penetration PV, grid management issues, flexibility PV & storage storage technologies, P2X, short term storage, seasonal storage PV & buildings BIPV, BAPV, PVT, technologies, aesthetics, design, standards PV & mobility plug-in hybrids, onboard PV, charging infrastructure PV & energy system power, heat, fuels PV & energy market market design, business models, regulatory framework Energy & Taxes energy taxation as state income International collaboration of high value in meeting challenges IEA PVPS 26
Afsluttende bemærkninger Internationalt spås solcellerne at være en el-kilde af disruptive karakter: vil revolutionere elforsyningen. Måske 10 TW installeret ved 2030. Markedsvolumen vokser investeringer falder. I en dansk sammenhæng må det være håbet, at solcellerne indpasses i energi- og el-planer og ikke glemmes i kommende energiforlig. Integration af solceller i det fremtidige energisystem kan kun være fordelagtigt helt klare tekniske og økonomiske fordele. 27
Tak for opmærksomheden Peter Ahm Snovdrupvej 16, DK-8340 Malling Denmark Tel. +45 86 93 33 33 Email: ahm@paenergy.dk 28